Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
AGNC options intelligence
AGNC Investment Corp. options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
33
Market data through 12 Aug 2026
Checked 13 Aug 2026 11:42 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
AGNC currently carries bullish options pressure with a 33/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 2.1%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.
Expected move
2.1%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.02
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.50
Call-side skew
Trend fit
33
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+1.7%
RS -5.7
Expected move
2.1%
Put-call volume
0.50
Volume / OI
0.02
Reference IV
0.41
Max pain
10.50
Underlying
10.84
Nearest expiry
14 Aug 2026
Contracts
446
Research Brief
AGNC has a bullish chain read with 33/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 10.61–11.07; The largest call open-interest concentration is 11.00; the largest put concentration is 10.50. The most active strike by current volume is 11.00.
Priced range10.61–11.07
Call concentration11.00
Put concentration10.50
Max pain reference10.50
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 10.61 to 11.07. Max pain at 10.50 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
10.6110.84 ± 0.2311.07
Confirmation level
A close beyond 11.07 or below 10.61 at the 14 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 33/100
Pressure is 29/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure29 × 42%
+12.2
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+8.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement33 × 26%
+8.5
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility37 × 10%
+3.7
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 11.00; the largest put concentration is 10.50. The most active strike by current volume is 11.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
5.00-53.9%
3
0
5.50-49.3%
47
2
6.00-44.6%
22
4
6.50-40.0%
26
4
8.00-26.2%
11
0
8.50-21.6%
5
0
9.00-17.0%
17
490
9.50-12.4%
2
913
10.00-7.7%
1249
2398
10.50-3.1%
294
260
11.001.5%
4948
345
11.506.1%
1708
1
12.0010.7%
278
0
13.0019.9%
2
9
13.5024.5%
0
2
14.5033.8%
2
4
15.0038.4%
3
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Balanced gamma proxy
Call- and put-side gamma sensitivity is broadly balanced across the retained chain. Individual strike concentrations may still matter more than the chain-wide net.
Net profile+$1.6MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak11.00+$4.9M
Negative peak10.00-$3.6M
Nearest balance10.60Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
6.00-44.6%
-$101
6.50-40.0%
+$88
7.00-35.4%
-$3,158
7.50-30.8%
+$39
8.00-26.2%
-$107,905
8.50-21.6%
+$56
9.00-17.0%
-$389,458
9.50-12.4%
-$41,509
10.00-7.7%
-$3.6M
10.50-3.1%
-$1.2M
11.001.5%
+$4.9M
11.506.1%
+$390,785
12.0010.7%
+$1.6M
12.5015.3%
-$80,632
13.0019.9%
+$18,612
13.5024.5%
-$3,249
14.0029.2%
+$1,873
14.5033.8%
+$8
15.0038.4%
+$74,997
15.5043.0%
-$4
16.0047.6%
-$238
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.41
14 Aug
2d
0.29
21 Aug
9d
0.19
28 Aug
16d
0.21
4 Sep
23d
0.21
11 Sep
30d
0.29
18 Sep
37d
0.21
25 Sep
44d
0.22
18 Dec
128d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
9
10
10
11
11
12
12
13
13
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 6 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 50% of the time.
Directional follow-through50%
Moves contained by pricing83%
Average expiry move1.5%
6 Aug
Bearish · 60
1.7% through expiry
1.4% priced · v2.0
5 Aug
Bearish · 55
1.7% through expiry
2.6% priced · v2.0
4 Aug
Bullish · 40
1.7% through expiry
2.4% priced · v2.0
3 Aug
Bullish · 33
1.7% through expiry
2.4% priced · v2.0
31 Jul
Bearish · 59
1.7% through expiry
2.6% priced · v2.0
30 Jul
Bullish · 51
0.7% through expiry
4.0% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 12 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 446 / 446
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Call activity against legacy put OI
Call activity is dominant while put open interest remains large but current put volume is not leading.
Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.
Call activity against legacy put OI matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $391,327 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+29
1W price+1.7%
Call premium61%
Put premium39%
Notional split
C 61% / P 39%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.02
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
33/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Do not infer a hedge unwind without next-session open-interest changes and opening/closing data.
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 188 contracts traded, $72,468 estimated gross traded notional, and 19% of visible notional.
$72,468
Calls · 91+ days · ATM
calls cluster with 1603 contracts traded, $68,286 estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$68,286
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
calls cluster with 372 contracts traded, $67,712 estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$67,712
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 188 contracts traded, $30,774 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$30,774
Puts · 22-45 days · ATM
puts cluster with 754 contracts traded, $27,049 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$27,049
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Normal range
Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.
Baseline: 11 completed sessions
Volume rank18th
Volume/OI rank18th
IV rank73th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close10.84
1W+1.7%
RS-5.7
Fair value+31.1%
Options pressure29
Speculation41
Volatility37
Trend fit33
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 2.9% · 11 sessions
18th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.33 · 11 sessions
73th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 1.69 · 11 sessions
27th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.06 · 11 sessions
18th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:25
Bullish
Pressure 31
Move 5.9%
30 Jul 10:21
Mixed
Pressure 8
Move 4.0%
31 Jul 13:32
Bullish
Pressure 86
Move 4.0%
31 Jul 17:05
Bearish
Pressure -22
Move 1.6%
2 Aug 13:36
Bearish
Pressure -72
Move 2.6%
4 Aug 10:05
Bullish
Pressure 29
Move 2.4%
5 Aug 10:13
Bullish
Pressure 67
Move 2.4%
6 Aug 10:13
Bearish
Pressure -42
Move 2.6%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike5.00
Calls · V 47 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.50
Calls · V 19 · OI 47
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike6.00
Calls · V 14 · OI 22
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike6.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 26
Puts · V 0 · OI 4
Strike7.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike7.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike8.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 11
Puts · V 0 · OI 4
Strike8.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 5
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts50
Avg IV0.41
Put-call0.06
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts58
Avg IV0.29
Put-call1.73
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts50
Avg IV0.19
Put-call0.58
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV0.21
Put-call0.26
Expiry11 Sep 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV0.21
Put-call0.19
Skew
Call/put IV balance
14 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.23
Put IV0.35
Skew0.12
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.20
Put IV0.25
Skew0.05
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.19
Put IV0.21
Skew0.02
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.20
Put IV0.22
Skew0.02
11 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.13
Put IV0.23
Skew0.10
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractAGNC260814C00011000
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike11.00
Volume2955
OI4948
IV0.23
ContractAGNC260821P00010500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike10.50
Volume1812
OI13936
IV0.25
ContractAGNC270319C00011000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike11.00
Volume1291
OI868
IV0.11
ContractAGNC260918C00011000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike11.00
Volume1258
OI20548
IV0.16
ContractAGNC260821C00011000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike11.00
Volume978
OI15617
IV0.20
ContractAGNC260918P00011000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike11.00
Volume729
OI8781
IV0.23
ContractAGNC260918P00010000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike10.00
Volume301
OI73567
IV0.27
ContractAGNC260814C00010000
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike10.00
Volume235
OI1249
IV0.01
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
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Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.