Ticker Options Intelligence

SW options intelligence

Smurfit WestRock plc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 47 Market data through 12 Aug 2026 Checked 12 Aug 2026 17:48 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

SW currently carries bullish options pressure with a 47/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 6.0%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.05.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 6.0%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.05

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.19

Call-side skew

Trend fit 17

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +5.0%

RS 4.3

Expected move 6.0%
Put-call volume 0.19
Volume / OI 0.05
Reference IV 0.63
Max pain 50.00
Underlying 48.28
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 70

Research Brief

SW has a bullish chain read with 47/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 45.38–51.18; The largest call open-interest concentration is 55.00; the largest put concentration is 50.00. The most active strike by current volume is 50.00.

Priced range45.38–51.18
Call concentration55.00
Put concentration50.00
Max pain reference50.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
  • Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 45.38 to 51.18. Max pain at 50.00 sits inside that range, 3.6% above spot.

Spot Max pain
45.3848.28 ± 2.9051.18
Confirmation level

A close beyond 51.18 or below 45.38 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 47/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 78/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure78 × 42%
+32.6

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation14 × 22%
+3.0

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement17 × 26%
+4.4

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility68 × 10%
+6.8

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score46.8Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 55.00; the largest put concentration is 50.00. The most active strike by current volume is 50.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1
22.50-53.4%
4
2
25.00-48.2%
0
10
30.00-37.9%
0
83
35.00-27.5%
2
227
40.00-17.1%
6
39
45.00-6.8%
352
1052
50.003.6%
1182
19
55.0013.9%
2381
0
60.0024.3%
5
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Gamma Profile by Strike

Positive gamma proxy

Model-estimated Greeks · 94% coverage

Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.

Net profile+$856,137Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak50.00+$604,832
Negative peak35.00-$25,256
Nearest balance40.25Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
17.50-63.8%
-$49
20.00-58.6%
-$99
22.50-53.4%
+$33
25.00-48.2%
-$1,335
30.00-37.9%
-$583
35.00-27.5%
-$25,256
40.00-17.1%
-$4,409
45.00-6.8%
+$83,006
50.003.6%
+$604,832
55.0013.9%
+$183,226
60.0024.3%
+$14,128
65.0034.6%
+$1,836
70.0045.0%
+$17
75.0055.3%
+$94
80.0065.7%
+$696
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike

Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.26× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.63 21 Aug 9d
0.52 18 Sep 37d
0.42 16 Oct 65d
0.50 15 Jan 156d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

40
45
50
55
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 matured · 0 directional

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A97/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
12 Aug 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
70 / 70
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

67/100
Primary intent Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate

Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow confirms price

Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.

Why this matters

Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $289,136 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+78
1W price+5.0%
Call premium86%
Put premium14%
Notional split C 86% / P 14% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.05 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 17/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction. Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · ITM
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 87 contracts traded, $125,320 estimated gross traded notional, and 43% of visible notional.
$125,320
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM calls cluster with 305 contracts traded, $60,240 estimated gross traded notional, and 21% of visible notional.
$60,240
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 64 contracts traded, $22,065 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$22,065
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM puts cluster with 32 contracts traded, $20,375 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$20,375
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 13 contracts traded, $13,240 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$13,240

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

High anomaly

88

Current options activity is unusually hot versus this ticker's stored history.

Baseline: 11 completed sessions

Volume rank82th
Volume/OI rank82th
IV rank100th

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close48.28
1W+5.0%
RS4.3
Fair value+12.1%
Options pressure78
Speculation14
Volatility68
Trend fit17

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 6.0% muted
30d avg 8.9% · 11 sessions 9th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions -
IV 0.63 elevated
30d avg 0.48 · 11 sessions 100th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.19 near normal
30d avg 0.75 · 11 sessions 45th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.05 elevated
30d avg 0.04 · 11 sessions 82th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:18 Volatility
Pressure 15
Move 11.9%
30 Jul 10:13 Mixed
Pressure 8
Move 9.1%
30 Jul 15:28 Mixed
Pressure 14
Move 9.5%
30 Jul 16:07 Mixed
Pressure 15
Move 9.4%
31 Jul 10:00 Bullish
Pressure 93
Move 9.1%
1 Aug 09:45 Bullish
Pressure 86
Move 11.0%
3 Aug 09:00 Bullish
Pressure 86
Move 8.0%
4 Aug 10:11 Mixed
Pressure 12
Move 9.1%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike22.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike25.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike30.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 10
Strike35.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 2
Puts · V 2 · OI 83
Strike40.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 6
Puts · V 3 · OI 227
Strike45.00
Calls · V 6 · OI 352
Puts · V 10 · OI 39
Strike50.00
Calls · V 124 · OI 1182
Puts · V 2 · OI 1052
Strike55.00
Calls · V 10 · OI 2381
Puts · V 30 · OI 19

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.63
Put-call0.34
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts10
Avg IV0.52
Put-call0.01
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.42
Put-call0.60
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts28
Avg IV0.50
Put-call0.25

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.38
Put IV0.55
Skew0.17
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.38
Put IV0.49
Skew0.11
16 Oct 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.41
Put IV0.53
Skew0.12
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.45
Put IV0.55
Skew0.10

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractSW260821C00022500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike22.50
Volume-
OI4
IV3.95
ContractSW260918P00030000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike30.00
Volume-
OI3
IV0.96
ContractSW260821P00025000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike25.00
Volume-
OI2
IV2.72
ContractSW260918P00035000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike35.00
Volume-
OI2
IV0.64
ContractSW260821P00022500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike22.50
Volume-
OI1
IV2.41
ContractSW260918C00050000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike50.00
Volume300
OI1153
IV0.38
ContractSW260821C00050000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike50.00
Volume124
OI1182
IV0.38
ContractSW270115C00040000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike40.00
Volume50
OI296
IV0.49

Evidence context