SW NYSE Week ended 07 Aug 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Smurfit WestRock plc · Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers

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Latest close 48.28 USD
5.0% latest week
Weekly setup

Constructive, but selective

The weekly trend is active. Price is 13.0% above the Trend Line and sits at 81.4% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 5.0%, after a 9.2% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is bullish with 48/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 50/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal.

Setup score 58 out of 100
Latest Close 48.28 USD 7 Aug 2026
1W Return 5.0% latest completed week
4W Return 9.2% short-term follow-through
12W Return 28.8% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 38.5% 20 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 0.8x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • The trend backdrop is active with a 9-week active streak.
  • Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
What could go wrong
  • Next-week expectancy is negative at 29.30% based on similar historical setup states.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 5.0% Latest completed week; four-week move 9.2%. Indicator stack 52/62 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Next-Week Expectancy Negative 29.30% Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed. Options pressure Bullish 48/100 conviction; expected move 4.9%. News sentiment 50/100 55 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is 13.0% above the Trend Line and sits at 81.4% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 5.0%, after a 9.2% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 0.8x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul 7 Aug
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.7212-week average 0.36

12-week confirmation

Trend active9/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure8/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership5/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.72Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is 9.2% over four weeks, 28.8% over 12 weeks, and 15.6% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 9 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W5.0%
4W9.2%
12W28.8%
26W11.7%
52W15.6%
Active trend streak9 weeks
Active weeks in one year20
Trend breadth38.5%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.76Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-23.7%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership4.31Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change241.7%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth is moderate; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 09 Aug 2026 Financial statements through 30 Jun 2026 Field coverage 100% Model confidence 100%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength68/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 33; rank 1 is best.
Value70/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 31; rank 1 is best.
Quality25/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 76; rank 1 is best.
Momentum68/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 33; rank 1 is best.
Growth28/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 73; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Value-quality framework17/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
51.9x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
0.8x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
11.1x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
14.4%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
18.0%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
5.0%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
18.4%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
3.3%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
1.9%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
34.6%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
33.3%
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
7/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
2.8%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
0.0%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
2.8%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
3.9x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningBullish

SW shows bullish options pressure with a 48/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.39, expected move of 4.9%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Conviction48/100
Expected move4.9%
Put/call volume0.39
Pressure53
Speculation41
Volatility62
Trend agreement41
Open options detail
Insider activity-

No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.

News sentiment50/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 55 relevant articles.

16 positive · 28 neutral · 11 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move4.9%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-7.1%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility5.2%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher14 of 2612 weeks finished lower.
Best week+16.8%Week of 13 Feb.
Worst week-8.9%Week of 20 Mar.
Latest week+5.0%Week of 7 Aug.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains9
Modest gains5
Flat weeks0
Modest losses5
Sharp losses7
Recent vol5.2%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol5.6%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split27/25Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew4.7% / -4.2%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape53/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 53/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis62/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 9/12, activity pressure 8/12, relative leadership 5/12.

Activity pressure 0.72; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyNegative 29.30%

Next-week expectancy is negative with a 29.30% historical one-week setup read.

Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors56/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Cornerstone Growth rank 54; Buyback Yield rank 67 SVQF17/100

Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Composite rank 842.0 of 1018 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options57/100

SW shows bullish options pressure with a 48/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.39, expected move of 4.9%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.

Bullish · Call-side pressure · Expected move 4.9% Sentiment50/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 55 relevant articles.

Smurfit Westrock PLC stock underperforms Friday when compared to competitors Insiders50/100

No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.

 Earnings50/100

No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.

 Research flow2 items

1 recent research articles and 1 Market Watch posts are available.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
7 Aug 202648.28 USD5.0%42.72 USD43.09 USD0.764.3120.4MOn
31 Jul 202645.97 USD-5.3%42.51 USD43.04 USD0.802.6835.7MOn
24 Jul 202648.56 USD9.6%42.27 USD43.01 USD0.769.3925.6MOn
17 Jul 202644.30 USD0.2%41.92 USD42.96 USD0.87-1.0621.0MOn
10 Jul 202644.23 USD-3.7%41.68 USD42.95 USD1.00-3.0430.1MOn
3 Jul 202645.93 USD-2.2%41.42 USD42.93 USD1.001.5822.4MOn
26 Jun 202646.98 USD6.3%41.07 USD42.91 USD0.685.7338.1MOn
19 Jun 202644.20 USD2.0%40.67 USD42.87 USD0.24-2.9926.5MOn
12 Jun 202643.32 USD4.9%40.30 USD42.85 USD-0.23-4.3335.6MOn
5 Jun 202641.28 USD0.3%39.97 USD42.85 USD-0.65-8.6020.4MOff
29 May 202641.15 USD8.1%39.75 USD42.86 USD-0.64-11.5622.1MOff
22 May 202638.05 USD1.5%39.57 USD42.88 USD-0.61-17.4721.7MOff
15 May 202637.48 USD-8.7%39.69 USD42.93 USD-0.52-18.5517.5MOff
8 May 202641.05 USD5.4%39.78 USD42.99 USD-0.41-11.2929.0MOn
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.

Evidence context