Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
ESTC options intelligence
Elastic NV options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
50
Market data through 12 Aug 2026
Checked 13 Aug 2026 12:26 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
ESTC currently carries volatility options pressure with a 50/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 8.8%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.
Expected move
8.8%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.01
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.16
Call-side skew
Trend fit
20
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+14.2%
RS -1.8
Expected move
8.8%
Put-call volume
0.16
Volume / OI
0.01
Reference IV
0.69
Max pain
55.00
Underlying
75.11
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
392
Research Brief
ESTC has a volatility chain read with 50/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 68.53–81.69; The largest call open-interest concentration is 75.00; the largest put concentration is 55.00. The most active strike by current volume is 70.00.
Priced range68.53–81.69
Call concentration75.00
Put concentration55.00
Max pain reference55.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 68.53 to 81.69. Max pain at 55.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
68.5375.11 ± 6.5881.69
Confirmation level
A close beyond 81.69 or below 68.53 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 50/100
Pressure is 82/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure82 × 42%
+34.6
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation10 × 22%
+2.2
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement20 × 26%
+5.3
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility84 × 10%
+8.4
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 75.00; the largest put concentration is 55.00. The most active strike by current volume is 70.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
5
25.00-66.7%
21
53
30.00-60.1%
6
89
35.00-53.4%
2
93
40.00-46.7%
15
306
45.00-40.1%
72
267
50.00-33.4%
11
1865
55.00-26.8%
2231
339
60.00-20.1%
2924
414
65.00-13.5%
903
36
70.00-6.8%
1290
160
75.00-0.1%
4954
134
80.006.5%
384
2
85.0013.2%
1724
0
90.0019.8%
195
0
95.0026.5%
205
0
100.0033.1%
394
0
110.0046.5%
235
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$3.7MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak75.00+$1.5M
Negative peak55.00-$13,075
Nearest balance55.51Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
25.00-66.7%
+$316
30.00-60.1%
+$230
35.00-53.4%
-$2,245
40.00-46.7%
-$4,740
45.00-40.1%
-$8,839
50.00-33.4%
-$9,719
55.00-26.8%
-$13,075
60.00-20.1%
+$114,799
65.00-13.5%
+$643,501
70.00-6.8%
+$230,845
75.00-0.1%
+$1.5M
80.006.5%
+$147,047
85.0013.2%
+$815,019
90.0019.8%
+$188,881
95.0026.5%
+$35,549
100.0033.1%
+$44,570
105.0039.8%
+$8,315
110.0046.5%
+$16,642
115.0053.1%
+$5,966
120.0059.8%
+$30,446
125.0066.4%
+$1,988
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.69
21 Aug
9d
0.78
18 Sep
37d
0.69
20 Nov
100d
0.67
18 Dec
128d
0.66
15 Jan
156d
0.64
19 Feb
191d
0.65
17 Jun
309d
0.65
17 Dec
492d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
65
70
75
80
85
90
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 12 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 392 / 392
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $215,470 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+82
1W price+14.2%
Call premium95%
Put premium5%
Notional split
C 95% / P 5%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.01
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
20/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
27 Aug
Matched earnings event is 14 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 156 contracts traded, $118,175 estimated gross traded notional, and 55% of visible notional.
$118,175
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM
calls cluster with 32 contracts traded, $38,400 estimated gross traded notional, and 18% of visible notional.
$38,400
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
calls cluster with 53 contracts traded, $20,060 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$20,060
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 13 contracts traded, $11,810 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$11,810
Calls · 22-45 days · ATM
calls cluster with 11 contracts traded, $9,680 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$9,680
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
9 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 9 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close75.11
1W+14.2%
RS-1.8
Fair value-13.1%
Options pressure82
Speculation10
Volatility84
Trend fit20
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 9/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 9/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 9/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 9/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 9/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 9/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 9/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 9/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 9/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:34
Volatility
Pressure 74
Move 14.7%
30 Jul 10:31
Volatility
Pressure 88
Move 15.8%
30 Jul 23:03
Bullish
Pressure 60
Move 15.4%
31 Jul 13:35
Bullish
Pressure 60
Move 15.1%
1 Aug 02:04
Bullish
Pressure 43
Move 15.3%
3 Aug 07:33
Bullish
Pressure 43
Move 11.7%
4 Aug 10:54
Volatility
Pressure 76
Move 12.5%
5 Aug 11:22
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 13.6%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike22.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike25.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 21
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 6
Puts · V 0 · OI 53
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 89
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 15
Puts · V 0 · OI 93
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 72
Puts · V 0 · OI 306
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 11
Puts · V 0 · OI 267
Strike55.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 2231
Puts · V 0 · OI 1865
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts38
Avg IV0.69
Put-call0.19
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV0.78
Put-call0.17
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts38
Avg IV0.69
Put-call0.07
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts48
Avg IV0.67
Put-call0.82
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts64
Avg IV0.66
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.77
Put IV0.85
Skew0.09
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.79
Put IV0.81
Skew0.02
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.71
Put IV0.72
Skew0.01
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.66
Put IV0.69
Skew0.03
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.64
Put IV0.69
Skew0.05
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractESTC261120C00090000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike90.00
Volume60
OI48
IV0.68
ContractESTC260918C00070000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike70.00
Volume32
OI105
IV0.83
ContractESTC260918C00090000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike90.00
Volume27
OI253
IV0.77
ContractESTC270115C00090000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike90.00
Volume18
OI420
IV0.64
ContractESTC261218P00035000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike35.00
Volume14
OI43
IV0.85
ContractESTC261218C00090000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike90.00
Volume13
OI1362
IV0.67
ContractESTC260821C00070000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike70.00
Volume12
OI1290
IV0.69
ContractESTC260918C00075000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike75.00
Volume11
OI156
IV0.79
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.