Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
SHOP options intelligence
Shopify Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
52
Market data through 21 Sep 2026
Checked 22 Sep 2026 08:06 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
SHOP currently carries bullish options pressure with a 52/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 8.1%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.43.
Expected move
8.1%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.43
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.10
Call-side skew
Trend fit
4
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-0.2%
RS -15.0
Expected move
8.1%
Put-call volume
0.10
Volume / OI
0.43
Reference IV
0.43
Max pain
130.00
Underlying
128.50
Nearest expiry
25 Sep 2026
Contracts
1512
Research Brief
SHOP has a bullish chain read with 52/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 118.04–138.96; The largest call open-interest concentration is 134.00; the largest put concentration is 118.00. The most active strike by current volume is 140.00.
Priced range118.04–138.96
Call concentration134.00
Put concentration118.00
Max pain reference130.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 118.04 to 138.96. Max pain at 130.00 sits inside that range, 1.2% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
118.04128.50 ± 10.46138.96
Confirmation level
A close beyond 138.96 or below 118.04 at the 25 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 52/100
Pressure is 80/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure80 × 42%
+33.7
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation50 × 22%
+11.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement4 × 26%
+0.9
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility63 × 10%
+6.3
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 134.00; the largest put concentration is 118.00. The most active strike by current volume is 140.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1149
115.00-10.5%
3
4155
118.00-8.2%
3
1118
120.00-6.6%
206
2165
124.00-3.5%
1
470
125.00-2.7%
170
2283
130.001.2%
1716
86
132.002.7%
207
128
134.004.3%
2107
288
135.005.1%
728
27
136.005.8%
132
41
137.006.6%
174
110
138.007.4%
180
348
140.008.9%
1924
21
142.0010.5%
48
25
143.0011.3%
298
104
145.0012.8%
595
0
150.0016.7%
667
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$21.5MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak135.00+$16.0M
Negative peak110.00-$3.2M
Nearest balance129.25Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
118.00-8.2%
-$281,875
119.00-7.4%
-$28,240
120.00-6.6%
-$1.9M
121.00-5.8%
-$26,365
122.00-5.1%
-$33,982
123.00-4.3%
-$72,341
124.00-3.5%
-$409,044
125.00-2.7%
-$581,259
126.00-1.9%
-$332,784
127.00-1.2%
-$134,067
128.00-0.4%
+$85,057
129.000.4%
+$117,974
130.001.2%
-$355,186
131.001.9%
+$61,539
132.002.7%
+$547,137
133.003.5%
+$20,694
134.004.3%
+$1.3M
135.005.1%
+$16.0M
136.005.8%
+$254,792
137.006.6%
+$117,889
138.007.4%
+$95,353
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.43
25 Sep
4d
0.53
2 Oct
11d
0.53
9 Oct
18d
0.51
16 Oct
25d
0.50
23 Oct
32d
0.55
30 Oct
39d
0.61
20 Nov
60d
0.57
18 Dec
88d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
105
111
113
115
117
119
122
124
126
128
130
132
134
136
138
141
143
145
147
149
153
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 16 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 62% of the time.
Directional follow-through63%
Moves contained by pricing70%
Average expiry move7.9%
17 Sep
Bearish · 50
-0.2% through expiry
2.1% priced · v2.0
15 Sep
Mixed · 39
-0.2% through expiry
4.3% priced · v2.0
11 Sep
Mixed · 38
-0.2% through expiry
5.0% priced · v2.0
9 Sep
Volatility · 46
-11.2% through expiry
12.6% priced · v2.0
8 Sep
Mixed · 41
-11.2% through expiry
7.9% priced · v2.0
4 Sep
Bullish · 45
-11.2% through expiry
5.7% priced · v2.0
3 Sep
Mixed · 40
-5.1% through expiry
4.8% priced · v2.0
1 Sep
Mixed · 42
-5.1% through expiry
8.6% priced · v2.0
28 Aug
Mixed · 37
-5.1% through expiry
4.7% priced · v2.0
27 Aug
Bullish · 42
2.4% through expiry
3.8% priced · v2.0
26 Aug
Bullish · 43
2.4% through expiry
3.1% priced · v2.0
25 Aug
Mixed · 39
2.4% through expiry
4.8% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 21 Sep 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 1512 / 1512
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Call activity against legacy put OI
Call activity is dominant while put open interest remains large but current put volume is not leading.
Call-side pressure is building before a meaningful weekly price response.
Call activity against legacy put OI matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $162.7M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 22-45 days · otm, and a bullish flow before price confirmation backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+80
1W price-0.2%
Call premium95%
Put premium5%
Notional split
C 95% / P 5%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.43
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
4/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Do not infer a hedge unwind without next-session open-interest changes and opening/closing data.
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
calls cluster with 99186 contracts traded, $62.6M estimated gross traded notional, and 38% of visible notional.
$62.6M
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 48895 contracts traded, $62.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 38% of visible notional.
$62.1M
Calls · 0-7 days · OTM
calls cluster with 33800 contracts traded, $10.7M estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$10.7M
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 7793 contracts traded, $3.9M estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$3.9M
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 2117 contracts traded, $3.6M estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$3.6M
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Above normal
Activity is running above the recent historical baseline.
Baseline: 33 completed sessions
Volume rank100th
Volume/OI rank100th
IV rank15th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close128.50
1W-0.2%
RS-15.0
Fair value+23.0%
Options pressure80
Speculation50
Volatility63
Trend fit4
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 5.5% · 14 sessions
86th
90d avg 7.7% · 33 sessions
73th
180d avg - · 33/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.56 · 14 sessions
14th
90d avg 0.69 · 33 sessions
15th
180d avg - · 33/60 sessions
-
30d avg 1.03 · 14 sessions
0th
90d avg 0.86 · 33 sessions
0th
180d avg - · 33/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.05 · 14 sessions
100th
90d avg 0.06 · 33 sessions
100th
180d avg - · 33/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
12 Aug 10:24
Bullish
Pressure 29
Move 3.6%
13 Aug 10:04
Bullish
Pressure 37
Move 3.0%
14 Aug 10:04
Bullish
Pressure 32
Move 4.7%
15 Aug 23:22
Bullish
Pressure 19
Move 4.5%
18 Aug 03:24
Bullish
Pressure 25
Move 5.1%
19 Aug 11:58
Bullish
Pressure 62
Move 5.9%
19 Aug 23:47
Mixed
Pressure 12
Move 5.6%
20 Aug 10:10
Bullish
Pressure 27
Move 5.6%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike85.00
Calls · V 100 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike90.00
Calls · V 200 · OI 0
Puts · V 20 · OI 4
Strike95.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 11
Strike100.00
Calls · V 8 · OI 23
Puts · V 2 · OI 49
Strike105.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 10 · OI 32
Strike110.00
Calls · V 28 · OI 11
Puts · V 51 · OI 175
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry25 Sep 2026
Contracts134
Avg IV0.43
Put-call0.23
Expiry2 Oct 2026
Contracts144
Avg IV0.53
Put-call0.26
Expiry9 Oct 2026
Contracts126
Avg IV0.53
Put-call0.16
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts114
Avg IV0.51
Put-call0.03
Expiry23 Oct 2026
Contracts122
Avg IV0.50
Put-call0.56
Skew
Call/put IV balance
25 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.63
Put IV0.61
Skew-0.02
2 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.57
Put IV0.53
Skew-0.04
9 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.53
Put IV0.54
Skew0.01
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.54
Put IV0.53
Skew-0.01
23 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.53
Put IV0.53
Skew-
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractSHOP261016C00135000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike135.00
Volume48548
OI46336
IV0.50
ContractSHOP261218C00145000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike145.00
Volume44743
OI340
IV0.57
ContractSHOP261016C00145000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike145.00
Volume15489
OI1591
IV0.52
ContractSHOP261016C00150000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike150.00
Volume15356
OI2633
IV0.53
ContractSHOP261016C00155000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike155.00
Volume10119
OI6329
IV0.53
ContractSHOP260925C00140000
SideCall
Expiry25 Sep 2026
Strike140.00
Volume8620
OI1924
IV0.62
ContractSHOP260925C00135000
SideCall
Expiry25 Sep 2026
Strike135.00
Volume5692
OI728
IV0.61
ContractSHOP261016C00165000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike165.00
Volume2887
OI6013
IV0.56
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.