Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
SHOP options intelligence
Shopify Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
35
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 2 Aug 2026 09:20 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
SHOP currently carries mixed options pressure with a 35/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 12.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.
Expected move
12.5%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.03
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.93
Balanced tape
Trend fit
45
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+3.0%
RS -21.4
Expected move
12.5%
Put-call volume
0.93
Volume / OI
0.03
Reference IV
1.13
Max pain
124.00
Underlying
117.15
Nearest expiry
7 Aug 2026
Contracts
1580
Research Brief
SHOP has a mixed chain read with 35/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 102.50–131.80; The largest call open-interest concentration is 130.00; the largest put concentration is 114.00. The most active strike by current volume is 130.00.
Priced range102.50–131.80
Call concentration130.00
Put concentration114.00
Max pain reference124.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 102.50 to 131.80. Max pain at 124.00 sits inside that range, 5.8% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
102.50117.15 ± 14.65131.80
Confirmation level
A close beyond 131.80 or below 102.50 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 35/100
Pressure is 10/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure10 × 42%
+4.3
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+8.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement45 × 26%
+11.8
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 130.00; the largest put concentration is 114.00. The most active strike by current volume is 130.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
275
95.00-18.9%
18
794
100.00-14.6%
248
772
105.00-10.4%
5
2831
114.00-2.7%
43
724
115.00-1.8%
141
126
117.00-0.1%
97
459
118.000.7%
59
910
120.002.4%
173
305
124.005.8%
142
477
125.006.7%
496
527
127.008.4%
123
66
130.0011.0%
4165
14
135.0015.2%
668
2
140.0019.5%
1333
3
145.0023.8%
790
23
150.0028.0%
1084
0
170.0045.1%
1396
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
1.13
7 Aug
7d
0.92
14 Aug
14d
0.81
21 Aug
21d
0.77
28 Aug
28d
0.73
4 Sep
35d
0.70
11 Sep
42d
0.68
18 Sep
49d
0.64
16 Oct
77d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
94
96
99
101
103
106
108
110
112
115
117
119
122
124
126
128
131
133
135
138
140
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 1580 / 1580
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $15.1M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 8-21 days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+10
1W price+3.0%
Call premium40%
Put premium60%
Notional split
C 40% / P 60%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.03
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
45/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
5 Aug
Matched earnings event is 3 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM
puts cluster with 964 contracts traded, $2.8M estimated gross traded notional, and 19% of visible notional.
$2.8M
Puts · 46-90 days · ATM
puts cluster with 894 contracts traded, $1.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$1.1M
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 1003 contracts traded, $919284 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$919284
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 1541 contracts traded, $914741 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$914741
Calls · 0-7 days · OTM
calls cluster with 3781 contracts traded, $894042 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$894042
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close117.15
1W+3.0%
RS-21.4
Fair value+16.4%
Options pressure10
Speculation41
Volatility96
Trend fit45
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:01
Volatility
Pressure 83
Move 14.8%
30 Jul 10:00
Mixed
Pressure -10
Move 13.9%
31 Jul 10:00
Mixed
Pressure 13
Move 7.6%
2 Aug 08:20
Mixed
Pressure 10
Move 12.5%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 2
Strike70.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike75.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 100
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike80.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 100
Puts · V 57 · OI 16
Strike85.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 57 · OI 192
Strike87.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 15
Strike88.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 21 · OI 4
Strike89.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 11 · OI 2
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts164
Avg IV1.13
Put-call0.78
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts158
Avg IV0.92
Put-call1.62
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts126
Avg IV0.81
Put-call0.93
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts118
Avg IV0.77
Put-call0.71
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts118
Avg IV0.73
Put-call5.32
Skew
Call/put IV balance
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV1.10
Put IV1.11
Skew0.01
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.93
Put IV0.92
Skew-0.01
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.82
Put IV0.81
Skew-0.01
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.73
Put IV0.76
Skew0.03
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.70
Put IV0.71
Skew0.01
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractSHOP260807C00130000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike130.00
Volume866
OI4165
IV1.13
ContractSHOP260918P00120000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike120.00
Volume634
OI1257
IV0.67
ContractSHOP260821C00150000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike150.00
Volume611
OI4006
IV0.81
ContractSHOP260821P00112000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike112.00
Volume511
OI10
IV0.81
ContractSHOP260807C00150000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike150.00
Volume494
OI1084
IV1.14
ContractSHOP261016C00130000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike130.00
Volume456
OI436
IV0.64
ContractSHOP260904P00090000
SidePut
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Strike90.00
Volume448
OI1
IV0.72
ContractSHOP260807C00135000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike135.00
Volume436
OI668
IV1.15
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.