Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
XEL options intelligence
Xcel Energy Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
36
Market data through 12 Aug 2026
Checked 13 Aug 2026 10:11 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
XEL currently carries bullish options pressure with a 36/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 3.1%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.00.
Expected move
3.1%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.00
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.14
Call-side skew
Trend fit
22
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-0.2%
RS -11.8
Expected move
3.1%
Put-call volume
0.14
Volume / OI
0.00
Reference IV
0.22
Max pain
80.00
Underlying
78.07
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
300
Research Brief
XEL has a bullish chain read with 36/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 75.64–80.50; The largest call open-interest concentration is 80.00; the largest put concentration is 80.00. The most active strike by current volume is 85.00.
Priced range75.64–80.50
Call concentration80.00
Put concentration80.00
Max pain reference80.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 75.64 to 80.50. Max pain at 80.00 sits inside that range, 2.5% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
75.6478.07 ± 2.4380.50
Confirmation level
A close beyond 80.50 or below 75.64 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 36/100
Pressure is 63/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure63 × 42%
+26.4
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation4 × 22%
+0.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement22 × 26%
+5.8
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility28 × 10%
+2.8
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 80.00; the largest put concentration is 80.00. The most active strike by current volume is 85.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
40.00-48.8%
0
7
45.00-42.4%
1
1
50.00-36.0%
0
17
55.00-29.6%
0
12
60.00-23.1%
0
58
65.00-16.7%
0
854
70.00-10.3%
341
210
75.00-3.9%
121
1113
80.002.5%
1558
7
85.008.9%
690
0
90.0015.3%
273
0
95.0021.7%
1051
0
100.0028.1%
16
0
105.0034.5%
13
0
110.0040.9%
0
0
115.0047.3%
1
0
120.0053.7%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Negative gamma proxy
Put-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the call-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile-$1.5MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak80.00+$981,227
Negative peak65.00-$1.4M
Nearest balance76.81Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
40.00-48.8%
-$1,657
45.00-42.4%
-$517
50.00-36.0%
-$1,329
55.00-29.6%
-$24,808
60.00-23.1%
-$945,810
65.00-16.7%
-$1.4M
70.00-10.3%
-$106,822
75.00-3.9%
-$555,861
80.002.5%
+$981,227
85.008.9%
+$252,485
90.0015.3%
+$347,774
95.0021.7%
+$23,305
100.0028.1%
+$3,819
105.0034.5%
+$678
110.0040.9%
+$15
115.0047.3%
+$458
120.0053.7%
+$34
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.22
21 Aug
9d
0.21
18 Sep
37d
0.23
20 Nov
100d
0.25
18 Dec
128d
0.24
15 Jan
156d
0.25
19 Mar
219d
0.24
17 Jun
309d
0.24
17 Sep
401d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
65
70
75
80
85
90
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 12 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 300 / 300
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Call activity against legacy put OI
Call activity is dominant while put open interest remains large but current put volume is not leading.
Call-side pressure is building before a meaningful weekly price response.
Call activity against legacy put OI matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $37,096 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a bullish flow before price confirmation backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+63
1W price-0.2%
Call premium87%
Put premium13%
Notional split
C 87% / P 13%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.00
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
22/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Do not infer a hedge unwind without next-session open-interest changes and opening/closing data.
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 59 contracts traded, $12,118 estimated gross traded notional, and 33% of visible notional.
$12,118
Calls · 22-45 days · ITM
calls cluster with 15 contracts traded, $6,750 estimated gross traded notional, and 18% of visible notional.
$6,750
Calls · 22-45 days · ATM
calls cluster with 32 contracts traded, $4,080 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$4,080
Calls · 91+ days · ATM
calls cluster with 10 contracts traded, $3,650 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$3,650
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 12 contracts traded, $2,685 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$2,685
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Quiet tape
Activity is muted versus this ticker's stored history.
Baseline: 11 completed sessions
Volume rank9th
Volume/OI rank9th
IV rank0th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close78.07
1W-0.2%
RS-11.8
Fair value+20.3%
Options pressure63
Speculation4
Volatility28
Trend fit22
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 4.8% · 11 sessions
0th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.30 · 11 sessions
0th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 2.92 · 11 sessions
9th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.02 · 11 sessions
9th
90d avg - · 11/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 11/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:10
Mixed
Pressure -9
Move 5.8%
30 Jul 10:05
Mixed
Pressure -14
Move 4.2%
31 Jul 10:02
Bullish
Pressure 66
Move 4.7%
1 Aug 15:28
Mixed
Pressure -2
Move 4.3%
4 Aug 10:00
Bearish
Pressure -38
Move 5.9%
5 Aug 10:02
Bearish
Pressure -62
Move 4.7%
6 Aug 10:01
Bearish
Pressure -87
Move 5.0%
7 Aug 10:23
Bearish
Pressure -99
Move 5.1%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 7
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 17
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 12
Strike65.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 58
Strike70.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 341
Puts · V 3 · OI 854
Strike75.00
Calls · V 6 · OI 121
Puts · V 1 · OI 210
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV0.22
Put-call0.09
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts32
Avg IV0.21
Put-call0.15
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts32
Avg IV0.23
Put-call1.20
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV0.25
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts34
Avg IV0.24
Put-call0.05
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.18
Put IV0.14
Skew-0.04
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.18
Put IV0.26
Skew0.08
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.22
Put IV0.26
Skew0.04
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.27
Put IV0.28
Skew0.01
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.22
Put IV0.28
Skew0.06
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractXEL270115C00085000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike85.00
Volume37
OI261
IV0.22
ContractXEL260918C00080000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike80.00
Volume32
OI1557
IV0.18
ContractXEL260918C00085000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike85.00
Volume31
OI914
IV0.10
ContractXEL260821C00085000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike85.00
Volume31
OI690
IV0.21
ContractXEL260821C00080000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike80.00
Volume22
OI1558
IV0.18
ContractXEL270115C00090000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike90.00
Volume20
OI5424
IV0.07
ContractXEL260918C00075000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike75.00
Volume15
OI31
IV0.20
ContractXEL260821C00090000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike90.00
Volume8
OI273
IV0.35
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.