Polymarket Rates & Inflation Open Updated 4m ago

Will Argentina's monthly inflation in August 2026 be less than or equal to 1.1%?

Rates & Inflation expectations are steady at 0.3% on a moderate-quality market. Rates & Inflation expectation is steady at 0.3%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 35/100.

SignalWatchCurrent classification
Signal score29/100Priority across the tape
Market quality35/100Confidence in the read
Volume979Participation to date
Liquidity544Available market depth
Observed range0.0 pts416 snapshots
Market angles

The current setup

Trend Stable

+0.0 points over the latest measured period.

Range position 50%

Position between the observed low and high.

Historical percentile 100th

Share of recorded observations at or below todayโ€™s probability.

Rolling movement 0.0 pts

Dispersion across the latest twelve observations.

Liquidity / volume 55.6%

Current liquidity relative to cumulative volume.

Time remaining 2d 22h

Time until the listed market resolution deadline.

Probability history

Probability through time

Implied probability across the selected period.

Period low 0.3% Period high 0.3% Direction Stable Spread 0.0 pts
Repricing episodes

The moves that changed the market

Largest recorded probability changes, with the before-and-after price and elapsed interval.

Probability journey

How the market reached todayโ€™s price

Key checkpoints from the first observation through the period extremes to the current probability.

Market profile

Signal strength versus theme peers

Each component compared with the median and percentile of other active Rates & Inflation markets.

Current signal

Rates & Inflation expectation is steady at 0.3%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 35/100.

Participation

Where participation changed

Volume accumulation and liquidity are separated so their different scales remain meaningful.

Volume979Cumulative participation
Liquidity544Current available depth
Liquidity / volume55.6%Current depth ratio
Largest volume burst+59Between recorded observations
Market structure

Depth, open interest and spread

Contract structure can confirm a probability move or expose a fragile one.

Rates & Inflation context

Current probability and market quality for the strongest related contracts.

View full Rates & Inflation dashboard โ†’
Important context

A probability is a market price, not a promise.

Prediction markets can be wrong, thin, manipulated, poorly specified, or overtaken by new information. Use probability, participation, contract wording and independent research together.

Evidence context