Polymarket Energy Open Updated 10s ago

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Name: US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Prediction Market Signal
Creator: Polymarket
License: https://sharemaestro.com/data-license/

Energy expectations are steady at 78.5% on a high-quality market. Energy expectation is rising at 78.5%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +6.0 pts. Data quality 68/100. Crowd conviction is high; surprise risk may sit in the opposite outcome.

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SignalHigh ConvictionCurrent classification

Signal score41/100Priority across the tape

Market quality68/100Confidence in the read

Volume2.2MParticipation to date

Liquidity422.8KAvailable market depth

Observed range24.5 pts2411 snapshots

Market angles

The current setup

Trend Stable

+0.0 points over the latest measured period.

Range position 78%

Position between the observed low and high.

Historical percentile 98th

Share of recorded observations at or below today’s probability.

Rolling movement 0.0 pts

Dispersion across the latest twelve observations.

Liquidity / volume 19.5%

Current liquidity relative to cumulative volume.

Time remaining 20d 7h

Time until the listed market resolution deadline.

Probability history

Probability through time

Implied probability across the selected period.

Period low 59.5% Period high 84.0% Direction Rising Spread 0.0 pts

Repricing episodes

The moves that changed the market

Largest recorded probability changes, with the before-and-after price and elapsed interval.

Probability journey

How the market reached today’s price

Key checkpoints from the first observation through the period extremes to the current probability.

Market profile

Signal strength versus theme peers

Each component compared with the median and percentile of other active Energy markets.

Current signal

Energy expectation is rising at 78.5%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +6.0 pts. Data quality 68/100. Crowd conviction is high; surprise risk may sit in the opposite outcome.

Contract details

What this market prices

Outcomes: Yes / No
Status: Open
Resolution time: 31 Oct 2026 · 23:59 GMT
Provider: Polymarket
Theme: Energy
Last synced: 11 Oct 2026 · 17:19 BST

Contract description

This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

Participation

Where participation changed

Volume accumulation and liquidity are separated so their different scales remain meaningful.

Volume2.2MCumulative participation

Liquidity422.8KCurrent available depth

Liquidity / volume19.5%Current depth ratio

Largest volume burst+85071Between recorded observations

Volume accumulation

Largest participation bursts

Liquidity checkpoints

How available depth changed

Market structure

Depth, open interest and spread

Contract structure can confirm a probability move or expose a fragile one.

Energy context

Current probability and market quality for the strongest related contracts.

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Important context

A probability is a market price, not a promise.

Prediction markets can be wrong, thin, manipulated, poorly specified, or overtaken by new information. Use probability, participation, contract wording and independent research together.

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

The current setup

Probability through time

The moves that changed the market

How the market reached today’s price

Signal strength versus theme peers

Where participation changed

Largest participation bursts

How available depth changed

Depth, open interest and spread

A probability is a market price, not a promise.

Send a message

Evidence context

The current setup

Probability through time

The moves that changed the market

How the market reached today’s price

Signal strength versus theme peers

Where participation changed

Largest participation bursts

How available depth changed

Depth, open interest and spread

Compare related probabilities

A probability is a market price, not a promise.