Real Estate ยท Reit - Retail

EPRT relative to ADC

Essential Properties Realty Trust Inc / Agree Realty Corporation

EPRT is relatively depressed; ADC is relatively extended against their shared history.

EPRT chart โ†—ADC chart โ†—More EPRT pairs โ†—

Weekly 18 Sep 2026 ยท Daily 8 Oct 2026 ยท 156 completed weeks

Weekly separation 1.89ฯƒHistorical percentile 99
Relationship quality 66/100
Evidence alignment 50/100
Stability 95/10010 centre crossings
Break risk 30/100Lower is more dependable
Daily timing Gap extending1.29ฯƒ latest
The relationship through time

Price, separation and the daily turn

The weekly gap measures unusual separation. The two price paths show how it formed. Daily timing shows whether it has started to close.

Weekly gapPrice comparisonDaily timing
Weekly relationship gap

How far apart are they compared with normal?

ADC / EPRT gap 1.89ฯƒ
How far apart are they compared with normal?Zero is the fitted historical centre. Shading marks one standard deviation either side. The fit uses this editionโ€™s full weekly sample; this chart is not a historical trading signal. Above zero, ADC is extended relative to EPRT; below zero, ADC is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap. -2.0ฯƒ0.0ฯƒ2.0ฯƒ Sep 2023Jun 2024Mar 2025Dec 2025Sep 2026

Zero is the fitted historical centre. Shading marks one standard deviation either side. The fit uses this editionโ€™s full weekly sample; this chart is not a historical trading signal. Above zero, ADC is extended relative to EPRT; below zero, ADC is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap.

View chart values ยท 156 observations
DateADC / EPRT gap
29 Sep 20231.41ฯƒ
6 Oct 20231.52ฯƒ
13 Oct 20231.62ฯƒ
20 Oct 20232.09ฯƒ
27 Oct 20231.59ฯƒ
3 Nov 20231.29ฯƒ
10 Nov 20231.02ฯƒ
17 Nov 20230.90ฯƒ
24 Nov 20230.47ฯƒ
1 Dec 20230.69ฯƒ
8 Dec 20230.43ฯƒ
15 Dec 20230.05ฯƒ
22 Dec 20230.42ฯƒ
29 Dec 20230.68ฯƒ
5 Jan 20240.83ฯƒ
12 Jan 20240.48ฯƒ
19 Jan 20240.45ฯƒ
26 Jan 20240.12ฯƒ
2 Feb 20240.11ฯƒ
9 Feb 2024-0.44ฯƒ
16 Feb 2024-0.74ฯƒ
23 Feb 2024-0.42ฯƒ
1 Mar 2024-0.53ฯƒ
8 Mar 2024-0.61ฯƒ
15 Mar 2024-1.41ฯƒ
22 Mar 2024-2.03ฯƒ
29 Mar 2024-2.50ฯƒ
5 Apr 2024-1.96ฯƒ
12 Apr 2024-1.80ฯƒ
19 Apr 2024-1.69ฯƒ
26 Apr 2024-1.39ฯƒ
3 May 2024-1.94ฯƒ
10 May 2024-1.61ฯƒ
17 May 2024-1.79ฯƒ
24 May 2024-1.76ฯƒ
31 May 2024-0.96ฯƒ
7 Jun 2024-1.38ฯƒ
14 Jun 2024-1.46ฯƒ
21 Jun 2024-0.74ฯƒ
28 Jun 2024-1.44ฯƒ
5 Jul 2024-1.49ฯƒ
12 Jul 2024-1.89ฯƒ
19 Jul 2024-2.12ฯƒ
26 Jul 2024-1.13ฯƒ
2 Aug 20240.65ฯƒ
9 Aug 20240.87ฯƒ
16 Aug 20240.35ฯƒ
23 Aug 2024-0.58ฯƒ
30 Aug 2024-0.68ฯƒ
6 Sep 2024-0.16ฯƒ
13 Sep 2024-0.17ฯƒ
20 Sep 2024-1.74ฯƒ
27 Sep 2024-1.66ฯƒ
4 Oct 2024-0.87ฯƒ
11 Oct 2024-1.07ฯƒ
18 Oct 2024-1.54ฯƒ
25 Oct 2024-0.65ฯƒ
1 Nov 2024-0.23ฯƒ
8 Nov 2024-0.67ฯƒ
15 Nov 2024-0.46ฯƒ
22 Nov 2024-0.73ฯƒ
29 Nov 2024-0.98ฯƒ
6 Dec 2024-0.64ฯƒ
13 Dec 2024-0.82ฯƒ
20 Dec 2024-1.29ฯƒ
27 Dec 2024-1.11ฯƒ
3 Jan 2025-1.34ฯƒ
10 Jan 2025-1.33ฯƒ
17 Jan 2025-0.80ฯƒ
24 Jan 2025-0.79ฯƒ
31 Jan 2025-0.97ฯƒ
7 Feb 2025-0.46ฯƒ
14 Feb 2025-0.88ฯƒ
21 Feb 2025-0.72ฯƒ
28 Feb 2025-0.93ฯƒ
7 Mar 20250.06ฯƒ
14 Mar 20250.75ฯƒ
21 Mar 20250.30ฯƒ
28 Mar 20250.03ฯƒ
4 Apr 20250.59ฯƒ
11 Apr 20250.72ฯƒ
18 Apr 20250.90ฯƒ
25 Apr 20250.23ฯƒ
2 May 20250.33ฯƒ
9 May 2025-0.16ฯƒ
16 May 2025-0.32ฯƒ
23 May 20250.00ฯƒ
30 May 2025-0.28ฯƒ
6 Jun 2025-0.70ฯƒ
13 Jun 2025-0.44ฯƒ
20 Jun 2025-0.38ฯƒ
27 Jun 2025-0.81ฯƒ
4 Jul 2025-1.15ฯƒ
11 Jul 2025-0.95ฯƒ
18 Jul 2025-0.12ฯƒ
25 Jul 20250.39ฯƒ
1 Aug 20250.60ฯƒ
8 Aug 20250.72ฯƒ
15 Aug 20250.32ฯƒ
22 Aug 2025-0.17ฯƒ
29 Aug 2025-0.21ฯƒ
5 Sep 20250.28ฯƒ
12 Sep 20251.02ฯƒ
19 Sep 20250.17ฯƒ
26 Sep 20250.49ฯƒ
3 Oct 20250.02ฯƒ
10 Oct 20251.05ฯƒ
17 Oct 20250.70ฯƒ
24 Oct 20250.43ฯƒ
31 Oct 20250.90ฯƒ
7 Nov 20250.51ฯƒ
14 Nov 20250.40ฯƒ
21 Nov 20250.19ฯƒ
28 Nov 20250.35ฯƒ
5 Dec 20250.68ฯƒ
12 Dec 20250.08ฯƒ
19 Dec 20250.28ฯƒ
26 Dec 20250.93ฯƒ
2 Jan 20260.40ฯƒ
9 Jan 20260.33ฯƒ
16 Jan 20260.16ฯƒ
23 Jan 20260.31ฯƒ
30 Jan 20260.29ฯƒ
6 Feb 20260.06ฯƒ
13 Feb 20260.84ฯƒ
20 Feb 20260.43ฯƒ
27 Feb 20260.33ฯƒ
6 Mar 20260.32ฯƒ
13 Mar 20260.65ฯƒ
20 Mar 20260.60ฯƒ
27 Mar 20261.05ฯƒ
3 Apr 20261.22ฯƒ
10 Apr 20260.47ฯƒ
17 Apr 20260.18ฯƒ
24 Apr 20260.83ฯƒ
1 May 20261.09ฯƒ
8 May 20260.94ฯƒ
15 May 20261.28ฯƒ
22 May 20260.76ฯƒ
29 May 20260.99ฯƒ
5 Jun 20260.99ฯƒ
12 Jun 20261.29ฯƒ
19 Jun 20261.64ฯƒ
26 Jun 20261.77ฯƒ
3 Jul 20261.43ฯƒ
10 Jul 20261.47ฯƒ
17 Jul 20260.87ฯƒ
24 Jul 20261.42ฯƒ
31 Jul 20261.34ฯƒ
7 Aug 20261.16ฯƒ
14 Aug 20260.57ฯƒ
21 Aug 20260.46ฯƒ
28 Aug 20260.60ฯƒ
4 Sep 20261.06ฯƒ
11 Sep 20261.27ฯƒ
18 Sep 20261.89ฯƒ
Price paths ยท first shared close = 100

Which security created the gap?

ADC 138.58EPRT 136.51
Which security created the gap?Both price paths begin at 100. Their raw returns and the fitted relationship gap answer different questions. 100.0120.0140.0160.0180.0 Sep 2023Jun 2024Mar 2025Dec 2025Sep 2026

Both price paths begin at 100. Their raw returns and the fitted relationship gap answer different questions.

View chart values ยท 156 observations
DateADCEPRT
29 Sep 2023100.00100.00
6 Oct 202398.9398.47
13 Oct 202399.3998.47
20 Oct 202399.2296.35
27 Oct 202398.3497.55
3 Nov 2023107.25107.95
10 Nov 2023103.02104.85
17 Nov 2023105.23107.72
24 Nov 2023105.14109.66
1 Dec 2023109.77113.50
8 Dec 2023107.54112.39
15 Dec 2023111.81118.91
22 Dec 2023114.17119.51
29 Dec 2023115.40119.46
5 Jan 2024115.75119.04
12 Jan 2024115.24120.30
19 Jan 2024111.99117.03
26 Jan 2024109.02115.54
2 Feb 2024109.31115.86
9 Feb 2024105.90114.93
16 Feb 2024104.98115.40
23 Feb 2024105.86114.79
1 Mar 2024104.58113.90
8 Mar 2024106.56116.52
15 Mar 2024104.71118.53
22 Mar 2024103.21120.02
29 Mar 2024106.08125.94
5 Apr 2024104.05120.60
12 Apr 2024104.41120.18
19 Apr 2024105.04120.37
26 Apr 2024107.28121.36
3 May 2024109.63127.12
10 May 2024112.19128.26
17 May 2024112.90130.10
24 May 2024110.62127.26
31 May 2024113.79126.51
7 Jun 2024114.52129.67
14 Jun 2024114.75130.38
21 Jun 2024115.18126.84
28 Jun 2024116.47132.27
5 Jul 2024117.41133.61
12 Jul 2024120.64139.77
19 Jul 2024125.38146.88
26 Jul 2024129.24145.07
2 Aug 2024134.88140.20
9 Aug 2024136.06140.10
16 Aug 2024134.71141.87
23 Aug 2024137.57150.94
30 Aug 2024138.25152.32
6 Sep 2024142.10153.13
13 Sep 2024145.22156.62
20 Sep 2024140.98162.77
27 Sep 2024141.70163.01
4 Oct 2024140.37155.97
11 Oct 2024139.62156.50
18 Oct 2024143.60164.40
25 Oct 2024142.55156.94
1 Nov 2024140.94152.31
8 Nov 2024144.52159.29
15 Nov 2024144.83158.19
22 Nov 2024145.74161.12
29 Nov 2024146.89164.16
6 Dec 2024142.91157.27
13 Dec 2024142.80158.38
20 Dec 2024134.21151.79
27 Dec 2024134.46150.87
3 Jan 2025135.00153.02
10 Jan 2025131.22148.60
17 Jan 2025139.05154.04
24 Jan 2025137.88152.63
31 Jan 2025139.79155.99
7 Feb 2025140.40153.27
14 Feb 2025136.76151.95
21 Feb 2025140.29154.92
28 Feb 2025142.64159.00
7 Mar 2025146.93156.91
14 Mar 2025148.60154.04
21 Mar 2025145.87154.19
28 Mar 2025148.11158.42
4 Apr 2025144.39150.63
11 Apr 2025145.26150.73
18 Apr 2025153.29157.94
25 Apr 2025146.74155.58
2 May 2025148.56156.86
9 May 2025146.25157.69
16 May 2025145.76158.23
23 May 2025146.00156.32
30 May 2025147.00159.36
6 Jun 2025144.46159.46
13 Jun 2025145.54158.87
20 Jun 2025145.69158.62
27 Jun 2025141.24156.56
4 Jul 2025140.99158.63
11 Jul 2025140.31156.45
18 Jul 2025140.32150.91
25 Jul 2025144.03151.55
1 Aug 2025144.95151.15
8 Aug 2025144.15149.57
15 Aug 2025142.65150.56
22 Aug 2025143.77155.02
29 Aug 2025143.51155.02
5 Sep 2025144.12152.44
12 Sep 2025144.22147.69
19 Sep 2025140.51149.22
26 Sep 2025140.59147.24
3 Oct 2025139.73149.38
10 Oct 2025142.76145.98
17 Oct 2025148.62154.43
24 Oct 2025148.11155.68
31 Oct 2025145.08149.38
7 Nov 2025145.88152.73
14 Nov 2025146.61154.28
21 Nov 2025148.10157.28
28 Nov 2025149.99158.28
5 Dec 2025147.36153.23
12 Dec 2025143.07152.63
19 Dec 2025143.77152.03
26 Dec 2025144.37148.43
2 Jan 2026144.34151.85
9 Jan 2026141.11148.87
16 Jan 2026146.48155.74
23 Jan 2026145.20153.37
30 Jan 2026145.08153.37
6 Feb 2026150.12160.39
13 Feb 2026156.83162.10
20 Feb 2026157.15165.39
27 Feb 2026162.18171.45
6 Mar 2026163.93173.47
13 Mar 2026159.60166.40
20 Mar 2026153.45160.18
27 Mar 2026149.95153.47
3 Apr 2026154.92157.43
10 Apr 2026158.07166.06
17 Apr 2026160.68170.95
24 Apr 2026155.08160.34
1 May 2026154.40157.83
8 May 2026154.12158.54
15 May 2026150.56152.53
22 May 2026152.58158.19
29 May 2026150.47154.40
5 Jun 2026148.97152.83
12 Jun 2026153.88155.91
19 Jun 2026148.64148.24
26 Jun 2026155.78154.60
3 Jul 2026157.91159.12
10 Jul 2026158.20159.12
17 Jul 2026164.63170.09
24 Jul 2026163.64165.04
31 Jul 2026157.85159.68
7 Aug 2026153.45156.31
14 Aug 2026151.64158.50
21 Aug 2026149.90157.38
28 Aug 2026148.52154.98
4 Sep 2026147.89151.26
11 Sep 2026145.06146.92
18 Sep 2026138.58136.51
Completed daily timing

Is the gap closing yet?

ADC / EPRT gap 1.29ฯƒ
Is the gap closing yet?Daily observations use the weekly fit. A narrowing gap needs support from the weekly case and can reverse. Above zero, ADC is extended relative to EPRT; below zero, ADC is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap. -2.0ฯƒ0.0ฯƒ2.0ฯƒ Jan 2026Mar 2026Jun 2026Aug 2026Oct 2026

Daily observations use the weekly fit. A narrowing gap needs support from the weekly case and can reverse. Above zero, ADC is extended relative to EPRT; below zero, ADC is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap.

View chart values ยท 180 observations
DateADC / EPRT gap
22 Jan 2026-2.39ฯƒ
23 Jan 2026-2.03ฯƒ
26 Jan 2026-1.90ฯƒ
27 Jan 2026-1.57ฯƒ
28 Jan 2026-1.98ฯƒ
29 Jan 2026-2.07ฯƒ
30 Jan 2026-2.08ฯƒ
2 Feb 2026-2.75ฯƒ
3 Feb 2026-2.20ฯƒ
4 Feb 2026-1.46ฯƒ
5 Feb 2026-1.33ฯƒ
6 Feb 2026-2.01ฯƒ
9 Feb 2026-1.14ฯƒ
10 Feb 2026-0.78ฯƒ
11 Feb 2026-0.06ฯƒ
12 Feb 2026-0.35ฯƒ
13 Feb 20260.23ฯƒ
17 Feb 20260.24ฯƒ
18 Feb 2026-1.23ฯƒ
19 Feb 2026-1.20ฯƒ
20 Feb 2026-0.56ฯƒ
23 Feb 2026-0.22ฯƒ
24 Feb 2026-0.49ฯƒ
25 Feb 2026-0.48ฯƒ
26 Feb 2026-0.65ฯƒ
27 Feb 2026-0.25ฯƒ
2 Mar 2026-0.62ฯƒ
3 Mar 20260.00ฯƒ
4 Mar 2026-0.06ฯƒ
5 Mar 2026-0.24ฯƒ
6 Mar 2026-0.12ฯƒ
9 Mar 2026-0.10ฯƒ
10 Mar 20260.07ฯƒ
11 Mar 20260.49ฯƒ
12 Mar 20260.37ฯƒ
13 Mar 20260.12ฯƒ
16 Mar 20260.49ฯƒ
17 Mar 20260.54ฯƒ
18 Mar 20260.36ฯƒ
19 Mar 20260.22ฯƒ
20 Mar 2026-0.58ฯƒ
23 Mar 2026-0.34ฯƒ
24 Mar 2026-0.44ฯƒ
25 Mar 2026-0.68ฯƒ
26 Mar 2026-0.60ฯƒ
27 Mar 2026-0.06ฯƒ
30 Mar 2026-0.17ฯƒ
31 Mar 20260.53ฯƒ
1 Apr 20260.52ฯƒ
2 Apr 20260.81ฯƒ
6 Apr 2026-0.30ฯƒ
7 Apr 2026-0.47ฯƒ
8 Apr 2026-0.29ฯƒ
9 Apr 2026-0.40ฯƒ
10 Apr 2026-0.38ฯƒ
13 Apr 2026-0.32ฯƒ
14 Apr 2026-0.34ฯƒ
15 Apr 2026-0.69ฯƒ
16 Apr 2026-0.24ฯƒ
17 Apr 2026-0.69ฯƒ
20 Apr 2026-0.34ฯƒ
21 Apr 2026-0.42ฯƒ
22 Apr 2026-0.93ฯƒ
23 Apr 20260.37ฯƒ
24 Apr 20260.04ฯƒ
27 Apr 2026-0.08ฯƒ
28 Apr 20260.27ฯƒ
29 Apr 20260.14ฯƒ
30 Apr 20260.58ฯƒ
1 May 20260.22ฯƒ
4 May 20260.28ฯƒ
5 May 20260.00ฯƒ
6 May 20260.13ฯƒ
7 May 2026-0.11ฯƒ
8 May 2026-0.10ฯƒ
11 May 20260.11ฯƒ
12 May 20260.35ฯƒ
13 May 20260.09ฯƒ
14 May 20260.34ฯƒ
15 May 20260.22ฯƒ
18 May 20260.25ฯƒ
19 May 2026-0.26ฯƒ
20 May 2026-0.53ฯƒ
21 May 2026-0.51ฯƒ
22 May 2026-0.62ฯƒ
26 May 2026-0.70ฯƒ
27 May 2026-0.99ฯƒ
28 May 2026-0.94ฯƒ
29 May 2026-0.38ฯƒ
1 Jun 2026-0.79ฯƒ
2 Jun 2026-0.96ฯƒ
3 Jun 2026-0.86ฯƒ
4 Jun 2026-0.63ฯƒ
5 Jun 2026-0.54ฯƒ
8 Jun 2026-0.30ฯƒ
9 Jun 20260.29ฯƒ
10 Jun 20260.46ฯƒ
11 Jun 20260.49ฯƒ
12 Jun 20260.57ฯƒ
15 Jun 20260.37ฯƒ
16 Jun 20260.38ฯƒ
17 Jun 20260.95ฯƒ
18 Jun 20260.73ฯƒ
22 Jun 20260.69ฯƒ
23 Jun 20260.15ฯƒ
24 Jun 20260.82ฯƒ
25 Jun 20261.41ฯƒ
26 Jun 20261.93ฯƒ
29 Jun 20262.00ฯƒ
30 Jun 20261.78ฯƒ
1 Jul 20261.98ฯƒ
2 Jul 20261.46ฯƒ
6 Jul 20261.39ฯƒ
7 Jul 20261.79ฯƒ
8 Jul 20261.55ฯƒ
9 Jul 20261.47ฯƒ
10 Jul 20261.58ฯƒ
13 Jul 20261.82ฯƒ
14 Jul 20261.58ฯƒ
15 Jul 20261.12ฯƒ
16 Jul 20261.29ฯƒ
17 Jul 20261.00ฯƒ
20 Jul 20260.55ฯƒ
21 Jul 20260.44ฯƒ
22 Jul 20261.24ฯƒ
23 Jul 20261.71ฯƒ
24 Jul 20262.01ฯƒ
27 Jul 20262.45ฯƒ
28 Jul 20262.73ฯƒ
29 Jul 20262.31ฯƒ
30 Jul 20261.81ฯƒ
31 Jul 20261.51ฯƒ
3 Aug 20261.00ฯƒ
4 Aug 20261.18ฯƒ
5 Aug 20260.93ฯƒ
6 Aug 20261.31ฯƒ
7 Aug 20260.72ฯƒ
10 Aug 20260.16ฯƒ
11 Aug 2026-0.29ฯƒ
12 Aug 2026-0.33ฯƒ
13 Aug 2026-0.32ฯƒ
14 Aug 2026-0.65ฯƒ
17 Aug 2026-0.94ฯƒ
18 Aug 2026-0.94ฯƒ
19 Aug 2026-1.23ฯƒ
20 Aug 2026-1.29ฯƒ
21 Aug 2026-1.28ฯƒ
24 Aug 2026-0.90ฯƒ
25 Aug 2026-0.85ฯƒ
26 Aug 2026-1.26ฯƒ
27 Aug 2026-1.13ฯƒ
28 Aug 2026-1.15ฯƒ
31 Aug 2026-1.17ฯƒ
1 Sep 2026-1.14ฯƒ
2 Sep 2026-0.80ฯƒ
3 Sep 2026-0.30ฯƒ
4 Sep 2026-0.30ฯƒ
8 Sep 2026-0.55ฯƒ
9 Sep 2026-0.23ฯƒ
10 Sep 2026-0.44ฯƒ
11 Sep 2026-0.17ฯƒ
14 Sep 2026-0.53ฯƒ
15 Sep 20260.10ฯƒ
16 Sep 20261.01ฯƒ
17 Sep 20260.68ฯƒ
18 Sep 20260.67ฯƒ
21 Sep 20260.26ฯƒ
22 Sep 2026-0.52ฯƒ
23 Sep 2026-0.40ฯƒ
24 Sep 20260.35ฯƒ
25 Sep 20260.52ฯƒ
28 Sep 20260.58ฯƒ
29 Sep 20261.13ฯƒ
30 Sep 20260.85ฯƒ
1 Oct 2026-0.46ฯƒ
2 Oct 2026-0.19ฯƒ
5 Oct 2026-0.01ฯƒ
6 Oct 20260.30ฯƒ
7 Oct 20260.84ฯƒ
8 Oct 20261.29ฯƒ
Separate the two contributions

What actually drove the recent move?

The depressed leg can recover, the extended leg can weaken, or both can move together at different speeds.

Completed windowEPRTDepressed legADCExtended legReturn differenceEPRT less ADC
1 week2026-09-11 โ†’ 2026-09-18-7.1%-4.5%-2.6 pp
4 weeks2026-08-21 โ†’ 2026-09-18-13.3%-7.6%-5.7 pp
13 weeks2026-06-19 โ†’ 2026-09-18-7.9%-6.8%-1.1 pp

Observed price returns over shared weekly dates. Percentage-point differences use equal weights; they are not the fitted spread or a trading return.

Specific pair playbook

What is the play in EPRT / ADC?

Use the current conditions as checkpoints. A strong historical relationship and a wide gap can still lack a supported entry case.

Watchlist pair - not triggered

Possible future structure: long EPRT / short ADC

The proposed pair would look for EPRT to outperform ADC, but the current evidence does not yet justify treating the gap as a convergence trade.

01 ยท Relationship66/100

Stability 95/100 ยท break risk 30/100

02 ยท Separation1.89ฯƒ

Distance from the historical centre, not a price target.

03 ยท Supporting evidence50/100

Direction and supporting research compared across both securities.

04 ยท Daily turnGap extending

Through 08 Oct 2026

What would confirm it?

The next useful observation

Treat this as a watch condition until the spread turns and at least one leg develops confirming evidence.

Wait for a completed daily turn toward normal and fresh evidence that EPRT is improving relative to ADC. The size of the gap alone is not the trigger.

What keeps it valid?

Follow both sides of the pair

If the daily gap keeps widening, leave the pair alone rather than averaging into the separation.

A favourable relative move means EPRT rises more than ADC, falls less than ADC, or rises while ADC falls. If ADC outperforms EPRT, the pair moves against the case.

What would cancel it?

Recognise a changing relationship

A large z-score alone is not a reason to expect mean reversion; the separation may reflect new information.

Do not use the pair if the completed gap keeps widening, EPRT continues to weaken relative to ADC, or the relationship moves into a break state.

Possible setup paths ยท How the relative-value idea could be expressed
Two-leg convergence structure

Long EPRT / short ADC

Treat both legs as one relative position. The setup looks for EPRT to outperform ADC; EPRT can rise faster, fall less, or rise while ADC falls. The pair loses ground when ADC outperforms EPRT.

When it becomes relevant This is a structure to study only after the current course changes from โ€œWatch, do not assume convergenceโ€ to confirmed convergence. Wait for the daily gap to narrow and for EPRT to improve or ADC to lose support.

Principal risk Requires a live review of both legs, borrow availability and cost, event dates, liquidity and the research normalisation.

Depressed-leg recovery study

Study EPRT alone if its own evidence confirms

This simpler expression focuses on recovery in EPRT. It avoids short-borrow mechanics, but it no longer isolates relative value: the result is exposed to the broad market, the sector and EPRT-specific news.

When it becomes relevant A stronger case needs improving EPRT price structure and supporting evidence, not just a wide relationship gap.

Principal risk Carries full single-security and broad-market direction risk.

Extended-leg rollover study

Study ADC alone if its support continues to weaken

This expression focuses on weakness in ADC. It may fit a leader-rollover case, but it also abandons the relative hedge and adds direct market direction, squeeze and company-event risk.

When it becomes relevant Weakening in ADC must be visible in its own completed evidence; relative extension alone is not enough.

Principal risk Short selling can involve unlimited loss, borrow fees, recalls and forced close-outs.

Explore possibilities ยท fixed weekly relationship

Different price moves. Different outcomes for the gap.

Test hypothetical moves from the published weekly close. The result shows distance from the fitted centre; it is not a forecast, position size or profit estimate.

1.23ฯƒ from the centre

Example: EPRT +5%, ADC +2%.

The same percentage move in both names does not necessarily leave the fitted gap unchanged: their historical sensitivity is 1.018, relative to the depressed leg.

Compare the examples
ScenarioEPRTADCNew gap
Both rise5%2%1.23ฯƒ
Both fall-2%-5%1.16ฯƒ
Move in opposite directions3%-3%0.50ฯƒ
The gap works against you-3%3%3.28ฯƒ
Current distance: 1.89ฯƒ. Examples use the same fixed fit as the calculator.
How the scenario is calculated

Keep the published weekly fit and its historical spread variation fixed. The change is log(1 + depressed-leg return) minus 1.018 ร— log(1 + extended-leg return), expressed in standard deviations. Returns enter as decimals. If the depressed leg is the modelโ€™s second security, both the coefficient and spread scale are inverted consistently.

Starting point: 18 Sep 2026. The calculation does not refit the relationship, forecast how either security moves or include fees, dividends or borrow costs. A result beyond the centre can become a new gap on the opposite side.

Supporting research for both securities

Check the story behind the separation

The comparison below is saved with the weekly pair edition. Linked apps may have newer readings; compare their dates before combining evidence.

Evidence now
  • ADC Market Dynamics is weakening.
What can overwhelm the relationship?
  • At least one leg has an earnings date inside the next 30 days, which can overwhelm historical spread behaviour.
  • Borrow availability, borrow cost and locate status are not stored and must be checked before any short sale.
  • Pair relationships can break after company-specific news, earnings, capital actions or a structural industry change.
Fitted sensitivity

0.983ร—

A 1% move in EPRT is associated with approximately 0.983% in ADC in the historical log-price fit.

This coefficient is not a share ratio or a position-size instruction. The displayed hedge ratio is a research normalisation, not a position-size instruction. Live borrow and transaction costs are outside the stored evidence set.

Relationship diagnostics

Why this pair is on the map

Separate how well the relationship fits the past from what happened in later, held-out observations.

Return co-movement0.72

Correlation of completed weekly returns.

Historical stability95/100

Consistency across earlier and later parts of the sample.

Estimated half-life6.8 weeks

Estimated time to halve a deviation under the fitted model, not a deadline.

Centre crossings10

Observed crossings in 156 completed weeks.

Tradability context80/100

Stored price, size and volume; no live short-borrow information.

Held-out resolution 0 / 2

Historical separations returned near the centre

Non-overlapping cases measured using a relationship fitted on earlier data. Small sample: 2 cases. These outcomes are descriptive, not a future probability or a trading backtest.

Observed resolution rate
0.0%
Median time among resolved cases
Not observed
Largest further extension
0.40ฯƒ
State history ยท what changed and when
Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-10-07.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-10-01.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-28.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-25.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-23.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-18.

Research state changed

Changed from Leader rollover to Unconfirmed stretch.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-10.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-09.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-08.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-04.

Relationship discovered

Published as Leader rollover after the completed 2026-09-04 observation.

Same-industry comparisons

Put this pair beside its peers

Measure guide

Weekly separation

How far the latest completed weekly relationship sits from its own historical centre.

A larger reading means the two securities are unusually far apart relative to this relationship's completed history. It identifies a dislocation; it does not, by itself, predict convergence.
Measure guide

Daily timing

The direction of the gap across the latest completed daily sessions.

Narrowing means the daily gap has begun to close, extending means it has widened, and stable means the change is not yet material. The weekly relationship remains the primary research clock.
Measure guide

Relationship quality

A public summary of how dependable the completed historical relationship has been.

It brings together repeatability, stability and later-sample behaviour. Higher is stronger, but no score guarantees that a historical relationship will continue.
Measure guide

Evidence alignment

Whether the wider stored evidence supports the depressed leg relative to the extended leg.

The comparison uses published price structure and supporting research for both securities. Higher alignment means more of that evidence points in the same relative direction; construction weights are not disclosed.
Measure guide

Stability

How consistently the relationship held across earlier and later completed observations.

Higher stability means the relationship changed less across the sample. It is a durability check, not a forecast or a guarantee of mean reversion.
Measure guide

Break risk

The risk that the earlier relationship is no longer a dependable reference point.

Lower is better. A high reading warns that the separation may reflect new information or a structural change rather than a temporary gap.
Measure guide

Fitted price sensitivity

The coefficient in the historical log-price relationship, not a number of shares.

The fit compares log price A with a constant plus this coefficient times log price B. For small percentage moves, it describes how much A historically moved with a 1% move in B. It is not a position-size instruction or a hedge in shares; portfolio value, live borrow, costs and risk limits are separate.
Measure guide

Held-out resolution

How often earlier measured separations later moved back near their fitted centre.

Each historical check is fitted only on information that came before it. The result is descriptive evidence from this relationship's history, not an expected return or future probability.

Evidence context