Energy ยท Oil & Gas Integrated

SU relative to SHEL

Suncor Energy Inc / Shell PLC ADR

SU is relatively depressed; SHEL is relatively extended against their shared history.

SU chart โ†—SHEL chart โ†—More SU pairs โ†—

Weekly 18 Sep 2026 ยท Daily 8 Oct 2026 ยท 156 completed weeks

Weekly separation 0.85ฯƒHistorical percentile 81
Relationship quality 91/100
Evidence alignment 49/100
Stability 89/10019 centre crossings
Break risk 10/100Lower is more dependable
Daily timing Gap extending1.62ฯƒ latest
The relationship through time

Price, separation and the daily turn

The weekly gap measures unusual separation. The two price paths show how it formed. Daily timing shows whether it has started to close.

Weekly gapPrice comparisonDaily timing
Weekly relationship gap

How far apart are they compared with normal?

SHEL / SU gap 0.85ฯƒ
How far apart are they compared with normal?Zero is the fitted historical centre. Shading marks one standard deviation either side. The fit uses this editionโ€™s full weekly sample; this chart is not a historical trading signal. Above zero, SHEL is extended relative to SU; below zero, SHEL is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap. -2.0ฯƒ0.0ฯƒ2.0ฯƒ Sep 2023Jun 2024Mar 2025Dec 2025Sep 2026

Zero is the fitted historical centre. Shading marks one standard deviation either side. The fit uses this editionโ€™s full weekly sample; this chart is not a historical trading signal. Above zero, SHEL is extended relative to SU; below zero, SHEL is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap.

View chart values ยท 156 observations
DateSHEL / SU gap
29 Sep 2023-0.96ฯƒ
6 Oct 20230.02ฯƒ
13 Oct 20230.35ฯƒ
20 Oct 20230.35ฯƒ
27 Oct 20230.67ฯƒ
3 Nov 20230.03ฯƒ
10 Nov 20230.05ฯƒ
17 Nov 20230.18ฯƒ
24 Nov 20230.69ฯƒ
1 Dec 20230.17ฯƒ
8 Dec 20230.63ฯƒ
15 Dec 20230.53ฯƒ
22 Dec 20230.75ฯƒ
29 Dec 20230.74ฯƒ
5 Jan 2024-0.05ฯƒ
12 Jan 2024-0.42ฯƒ
19 Jan 2024-1.02ฯƒ
26 Jan 2024-0.68ฯƒ
2 Feb 2024-0.34ฯƒ
9 Feb 2024-0.17ฯƒ
16 Feb 2024-0.36ฯƒ
23 Feb 2024-0.56ฯƒ
1 Mar 2024-1.31ฯƒ
8 Mar 2024-0.78ฯƒ
15 Mar 2024-0.80ฯƒ
22 Mar 2024-0.29ฯƒ
29 Mar 2024-0.64ฯƒ
5 Apr 20240.25ฯƒ
12 Apr 20241.17ฯƒ
19 Apr 20240.71ฯƒ
26 Apr 20240.84ฯƒ
3 May 20240.93ฯƒ
10 May 20240.90ฯƒ
17 May 20240.35ฯƒ
24 May 2024-0.14ฯƒ
31 May 20240.42ฯƒ
7 Jun 20240.02ฯƒ
14 Jun 20240.38ฯƒ
21 Jun 20240.71ฯƒ
28 Jun 20241.02ฯƒ
5 Jul 20241.54ฯƒ
12 Jul 20241.30ฯƒ
19 Jul 20240.89ฯƒ
26 Jul 20240.83ฯƒ
2 Aug 20241.35ฯƒ
9 Aug 20240.34ฯƒ
16 Aug 20240.30ฯƒ
23 Aug 20240.38ฯƒ
30 Aug 20240.20ฯƒ
6 Sep 2024-0.63ฯƒ
13 Sep 2024-0.07ฯƒ
20 Sep 20240.14ฯƒ
27 Sep 2024-0.76ฯƒ
4 Oct 2024-0.97ฯƒ
11 Oct 2024-1.12ฯƒ
18 Oct 2024-1.24ฯƒ
25 Oct 2024-1.27ฯƒ
1 Nov 2024-0.50ฯƒ
8 Nov 2024-1.26ฯƒ
15 Nov 2024-2.10ฯƒ
22 Nov 2024-2.23ฯƒ
29 Nov 2024-2.04ฯƒ
6 Dec 2024-2.42ฯƒ
13 Dec 2024-1.69ฯƒ
20 Dec 2024-2.05ฯƒ
27 Dec 2024-1.89ฯƒ
3 Jan 2025-1.14ฯƒ
10 Jan 2025-2.07ฯƒ
17 Jan 2025-1.21ฯƒ
24 Jan 2025-1.73ฯƒ
31 Jan 2025-1.02ฯƒ
7 Feb 2025-1.45ฯƒ
14 Feb 2025-0.95ฯƒ
21 Feb 2025-1.10ฯƒ
28 Feb 2025-0.35ฯƒ
7 Mar 20250.20ฯƒ
14 Mar 20250.62ฯƒ
21 Mar 20251.20ฯƒ
28 Mar 20251.52ฯƒ
4 Apr 20250.15ฯƒ
11 Apr 2025-0.84ฯƒ
18 Apr 2025-0.03ฯƒ
25 Apr 2025-0.12ฯƒ
2 May 20250.02ฯƒ
9 May 20250.25ฯƒ
16 May 20250.46ฯƒ
23 May 20250.30ฯƒ
30 May 20250.33ฯƒ
6 Jun 20250.42ฯƒ
13 Jun 20250.63ฯƒ
20 Jun 20250.86ฯƒ
27 Jun 20251.26ฯƒ
4 Jul 20251.34ฯƒ
11 Jul 20250.84ฯƒ
18 Jul 20250.52ฯƒ
25 Jul 20251.02ฯƒ
1 Aug 20251.11ฯƒ
8 Aug 20250.91ฯƒ
15 Aug 20251.38ฯƒ
22 Aug 20251.53ฯƒ
29 Aug 20251.28ฯƒ
5 Sep 20250.75ฯƒ
12 Sep 20250.04ฯƒ
19 Sep 2025-0.11ฯƒ
26 Sep 20250.51ฯƒ
3 Oct 20250.87ฯƒ
10 Oct 20250.85ฯƒ
17 Oct 20251.62ฯƒ
24 Oct 20252.36ฯƒ
31 Oct 20252.04ฯƒ
7 Nov 20251.31ฯƒ
14 Nov 20251.05ฯƒ
21 Nov 20250.16ฯƒ
28 Nov 20250.20ฯƒ
5 Dec 2025-0.05ฯƒ
12 Dec 2025-0.34ฯƒ
19 Dec 20250.07ฯƒ
26 Dec 20250.25ฯƒ
2 Jan 20260.41ฯƒ
9 Jan 2026-1.64ฯƒ
16 Jan 2026-1.26ฯƒ
23 Jan 2026-1.76ฯƒ
30 Jan 2026-1.16ฯƒ
6 Feb 2026-2.00ฯƒ
13 Feb 2026-1.34ฯƒ
20 Feb 2026-0.68ฯƒ
27 Feb 20260.37ฯƒ
6 Mar 20260.56ฯƒ
13 Mar 20261.36ฯƒ
20 Mar 20260.72ฯƒ
27 Mar 20260.59ฯƒ
3 Apr 20261.02ฯƒ
10 Apr 20261.08ฯƒ
17 Apr 20260.50ฯƒ
24 Apr 20260.26ฯƒ
1 May 2026-0.56ฯƒ
8 May 2026-1.37ฯƒ
15 May 2026-1.84ฯƒ
22 May 2026-1.28ฯƒ
29 May 2026-0.70ฯƒ
5 Jun 2026-0.35ฯƒ
12 Jun 2026-0.13ฯƒ
19 Jun 2026-0.86ฯƒ
26 Jun 2026-1.28ฯƒ
3 Jul 2026-1.06ฯƒ
10 Jul 2026-0.92ฯƒ
17 Jul 2026-0.03ฯƒ
24 Jul 2026-0.45ฯƒ
31 Jul 20260.41ฯƒ
7 Aug 20260.97ฯƒ
14 Aug 20260.51ฯƒ
21 Aug 20260.80ฯƒ
28 Aug 20260.72ฯƒ
4 Sep 20260.83ฯƒ
11 Sep 20261.61ฯƒ
18 Sep 20260.85ฯƒ
Price paths ยท first shared close = 100

Which security created the gap?

SHEL 163.82SU 225.65
Which security created the gap?Both price paths begin at 100. Their raw returns and the fitted relationship gap answer different questions. 100.0150.0200.0 Sep 2023Jun 2024Mar 2025Dec 2025Sep 2026

Both price paths begin at 100. Their raw returns and the fitted relationship gap answer different questions.

View chart values ยท 156 observations
DateSHELSU
29 Sep 2023100.00100.00
6 Oct 2023100.2393.72
13 Oct 2023104.6699.51
20 Oct 2023104.1598.58
27 Oct 2023103.0894.44
3 Nov 2023102.7398.17
10 Nov 2023101.9096.51
17 Nov 2023103.3698.28
24 Nov 2023103.5595.17
1 Dec 2023102.6797.09
8 Dec 2023100.6590.50
15 Dec 2023100.5591.03
22 Dec 2023103.2794.27
29 Dec 2023103.2594.33
5 Jan 2024103.1499.51
12 Jan 2024100.1296.51
19 Jan 202495.8992.71
26 Jan 202499.1396.39
2 Feb 202499.3394.53
9 Feb 2024100.0294.59
16 Feb 2024100.8397.36
23 Feb 2024101.4099.83
1 Mar 2024100.82104.05
8 Mar 2024102.02102.59
15 Mar 2024104.47107.44
22 Mar 2024106.15106.88
29 Mar 2024106.34109.91
5 Apr 2024113.08116.14
12 Apr 2024114.90112.24
19 Apr 2024114.32114.77
26 Apr 2024116.22117.36
3 May 2024114.79113.87
10 May 2024117.52119.38
17 May 2024115.17119.38
24 May 2024113.41120.01
31 May 2024116.55121.56
7 Jun 2024111.22114.33
14 Jun 2024110.50110.09
21 Jun 2024112.00110.39
28 Jun 2024115.59114.66
5 Jul 2024117.30113.70
12 Jul 2024117.03115.17
19 Jul 2024115.70115.93
26 Jul 2024115.38115.87
2 Aug 2024114.79110.57
9 Aug 2024115.11119.39
16 Aug 2024117.49124.41
23 Aug 2024117.09122.91
30 Aug 2024115.84122.01
6 Sep 2024108.16113.48
13 Sep 2024109.04110.80
20 Sep 2024111.09113.14
27 Sep 2024106.87111.90
4 Oct 2024110.75121.54
11 Oct 2024110.72122.81
18 Oct 2024108.37118.89
25 Oct 2024108.07118.46
1 Nov 2024109.10114.30
8 Nov 2024108.41119.07
15 Nov 2024106.95123.09
22 Nov 2024107.86126.28
29 Nov 2024105.76120.05
6 Dec 2024103.32117.92
13 Dec 2024103.80113.00
20 Dec 202499.06106.00
27 Dec 2024100.77108.33
3 Jan 2025105.40111.93
10 Jan 2025106.08120.99
17 Jan 2025108.99119.91
24 Jan 2025106.82119.67
31 Jan 2025107.57115.40
7 Feb 2025107.63119.05
14 Feb 2025110.83121.54
21 Feb 2025110.12121.33
28 Feb 2025111.37117.61
7 Mar 2025110.27111.04
14 Mar 2025113.54113.96
21 Mar 2025117.23116.35
28 Mar 2025120.07119.11
4 Apr 2025105.88103.15
11 Apr 2025102.51103.92
18 Apr 2025107.38107.31
25 Apr 2025108.73110.60
2 May 2025110.02112.00
9 May 2025109.21108.61
16 May 2025111.17110.76
23 May 2025110.64110.94
30 May 2025110.50110.45
6 Jun 2025113.51115.57
13 Jun 2025121.05128.71
20 Jun 2025120.81126.16
27 Jun 2025118.44118.12
4 Jul 2025120.01120.51
11 Jul 2025120.65126.01
18 Jul 2025117.28122.08
25 Jul 2025120.13123.43
1 Aug 2025120.15122.68
8 Aug 2025119.56123.24
15 Aug 2025121.09122.17
22 Aug 2025123.57125.66
29 Aug 2025124.51129.78
5 Sep 2025120.67126.89
12 Sep 2025120.23132.44
19 Sep 2025119.30131.90
26 Sep 2025123.70135.30
3 Oct 2025123.38131.27
10 Oct 2025120.37125.37
17 Oct 2025122.34122.51
24 Oct 2025127.82126.44
31 Oct 2025126.27126.38
7 Nov 2025127.39135.30
14 Nov 2025128.89140.83
21 Nov 2025124.65140.70
28 Nov 2025125.50142.16
5 Dec 2025124.21141.83
12 Dec 2025123.05142.21
19 Dec 2025122.53137.02
26 Dec 2025123.87138.17
2 Jan 2026128.34146.12
9 Jan 2026120.50149.65
16 Jan 2026126.32159.42
23 Jan 2026125.47163.04
30 Jan 2026131.05169.78
6 Feb 2026128.09172.44
13 Feb 2026134.01179.45
20 Feb 2026136.99178.65
27 Feb 2026143.40181.15
6 Mar 2026145.44183.57
13 Mar 2026153.56192.46
20 Mar 2026155.30205.76
27 Mar 2026158.27215.29
3 Apr 2026159.86212.83
10 Apr 2026158.34208.09
17 Apr 2026150.78197.53
24 Apr 2026153.05206.70
1 May 2026152.79218.16
8 May 2026144.19206.73
15 May 2026146.57220.55
22 May 2026148.52217.49
29 May 2026145.76201.40
5 Jun 2026147.98202.28
12 Jun 2026148.43200.26
19 Jun 2026136.56179.88
26 Jun 2026132.61175.23
3 Jul 2026135.19178.97
10 Jul 2026141.27192.62
17 Jul 2026150.01202.96
24 Jul 2026151.83213.95
31 Jul 2026158.02217.32
7 Aug 2026152.04194.13
14 Aug 2026156.76212.61
21 Aug 2026161.72221.00
28 Aug 2026157.53211.35
4 Sep 2026161.06218.89
11 Sep 2026167.68223.76
18 Sep 2026163.82225.65
Completed daily timing

Is the gap closing yet?

SHEL / SU gap 1.62ฯƒ
Is the gap closing yet?Daily observations use the weekly fit. A narrowing gap needs support from the weekly case and can reverse. Above zero, SHEL is extended relative to SU; below zero, SHEL is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap. -2.0ฯƒ0.0ฯƒ2.0ฯƒ Jan 2026Mar 2026Jun 2026Aug 2026Oct 2026

Daily observations use the weekly fit. A narrowing gap needs support from the weekly case and can reverse. Above zero, SHEL is extended relative to SU; below zero, SHEL is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap.

View chart values ยท 180 observations
DateSHEL / SU gap
22 Jan 2026-0.58ฯƒ
23 Jan 2026-0.48ฯƒ
26 Jan 2026-0.85ฯƒ
27 Jan 2026-0.30ฯƒ
28 Jan 2026-0.61ฯƒ
29 Jan 2026-0.22ฯƒ
30 Jan 2026-0.07ฯƒ
2 Feb 2026-0.48ฯƒ
3 Feb 2026-0.04ฯƒ
4 Feb 20260.60ฯƒ
5 Feb 2026-1.18ฯƒ
6 Feb 2026-1.21ฯƒ
9 Feb 2026-0.53ฯƒ
10 Feb 2026-0.46ฯƒ
11 Feb 2026-0.10ฯƒ
12 Feb 2026-0.55ฯƒ
13 Feb 2026-0.73ฯƒ
17 Feb 2026-0.67ฯƒ
18 Feb 2026-0.21ฯƒ
19 Feb 2026-0.42ฯƒ
20 Feb 20260.11ฯƒ
23 Feb 2026-0.05ฯƒ
24 Feb 20260.42ฯƒ
25 Feb 20261.12ฯƒ
26 Feb 20260.79ฯƒ
27 Feb 20261.26ฯƒ
2 Mar 20260.99ฯƒ
3 Mar 20260.52ฯƒ
4 Mar 20260.39ฯƒ
5 Mar 20260.36ฯƒ
6 Mar 20261.39ฯƒ
9 Mar 20261.49ฯƒ
10 Mar 20261.36ฯƒ
11 Mar 20261.80ฯƒ
12 Mar 20261.53ฯƒ
13 Mar 20261.99ฯƒ
16 Mar 20261.94ฯƒ
17 Mar 20262.19ฯƒ
18 Mar 20262.20ฯƒ
19 Mar 20261.10ฯƒ
20 Mar 20260.68ฯƒ
23 Mar 20260.98ฯƒ
24 Mar 20260.77ฯƒ
25 Mar 20260.81ฯƒ
26 Mar 20260.80ฯƒ
27 Mar 20260.16ฯƒ
30 Mar 20260.62ฯƒ
31 Mar 20260.67ฯƒ
1 Apr 20260.77ฯƒ
2 Apr 20260.78ฯƒ
6 Apr 20260.90ฯƒ
7 Apr 20260.81ฯƒ
8 Apr 20260.92ฯƒ
9 Apr 20261.04ฯƒ
10 Apr 20261.03ฯƒ
13 Apr 20261.01ฯƒ
14 Apr 20261.07ฯƒ
15 Apr 20260.75ฯƒ
16 Apr 20261.02ฯƒ
17 Apr 20260.74ฯƒ
20 Apr 20260.60ฯƒ
21 Apr 20260.49ฯƒ
22 Apr 20260.44ฯƒ
23 Apr 2026-0.08ฯƒ
24 Apr 20260.09ฯƒ
27 Apr 2026-0.93ฯƒ
28 Apr 2026-0.95ฯƒ
29 Apr 2026-1.17ฯƒ
30 Apr 2026-1.05ฯƒ
1 May 2026-1.33ฯƒ
4 May 2026-1.60ฯƒ
5 May 2026-1.83ฯƒ
6 May 2026-0.76ฯƒ
7 May 2026-1.67ฯƒ
8 May 2026-1.88ฯƒ
11 May 2026-1.77ฯƒ
12 May 2026-2.32ฯƒ
13 May 2026-2.30ฯƒ
14 May 2026-2.74ฯƒ
15 May 2026-2.97ฯƒ
18 May 2026-2.27ฯƒ
19 May 2026-2.29ฯƒ
20 May 2026-2.28ฯƒ
21 May 2026-2.16ฯƒ
22 May 2026-2.18ฯƒ
26 May 2026-1.77ฯƒ
27 May 2026-1.63ฯƒ
28 May 2026-1.36ฯƒ
29 May 2026-0.87ฯƒ
1 Jun 2026-0.92ฯƒ
2 Jun 2026-0.99ฯƒ
3 Jun 2026-1.10ฯƒ
4 Jun 2026-1.25ฯƒ
5 Jun 2026-0.48ฯƒ
8 Jun 2026-0.42ฯƒ
9 Jun 2026-0.05ฯƒ
10 Jun 2026-0.18ฯƒ
11 Jun 2026-0.14ฯƒ
12 Jun 2026-0.13ฯƒ
15 Jun 2026-0.51ฯƒ
16 Jun 2026-0.02ฯƒ
17 Jun 20260.05ฯƒ
18 Jun 2026-0.17ฯƒ
22 Jun 2026-0.22ฯƒ
23 Jun 2026-0.40ฯƒ
24 Jun 2026-0.24ฯƒ
25 Jun 2026-0.35ฯƒ
26 Jun 2026-0.48ฯƒ
29 Jun 2026-0.28ฯƒ
30 Jun 20260.06ฯƒ
1 Jul 2026-0.30ฯƒ
2 Jul 2026-0.37ฯƒ
6 Jul 2026-0.26ฯƒ
7 Jul 20260.53ฯƒ
8 Jul 2026-0.41ฯƒ
9 Jul 2026-0.50ฯƒ
10 Jul 2026-0.49ฯƒ
13 Jul 2026-0.64ฯƒ
14 Jul 2026-0.38ฯƒ
15 Jul 2026-0.13ฯƒ
16 Jul 20260.03ฯƒ
17 Jul 20260.17ฯƒ
20 Jul 2026-0.19ฯƒ
21 Jul 2026-0.39ฯƒ
22 Jul 2026-0.57ฯƒ
23 Jul 2026-1.15ฯƒ
24 Jul 2026-0.76ฯƒ
27 Jul 2026-0.82ฯƒ
28 Jul 2026-0.84ฯƒ
29 Jul 2026-0.77ฯƒ
30 Jul 2026-0.33ฯƒ
31 Jul 2026-0.29ฯƒ
3 Aug 2026-0.13ฯƒ
4 Aug 20260.01ฯƒ
5 Aug 2026-0.11ฯƒ
6 Aug 20261.17ฯƒ
7 Aug 20261.28ฯƒ
10 Aug 20260.73ฯƒ
11 Aug 20260.71ฯƒ
12 Aug 20260.32ฯƒ
13 Aug 2026-0.34ฯƒ
14 Aug 20260.00ฯƒ
17 Aug 20260.10ฯƒ
18 Aug 2026-0.14ฯƒ
19 Aug 20260.20ฯƒ
20 Aug 20260.34ฯƒ
21 Aug 20260.21ฯƒ
24 Aug 20260.48ฯƒ
25 Aug 20260.97ฯƒ
26 Aug 20260.45ฯƒ
27 Aug 20260.02ฯƒ
28 Aug 20260.47ฯƒ
31 Aug 20260.14ฯƒ
1 Sep 20260.07ฯƒ
2 Sep 20260.03ฯƒ
3 Sep 2026-0.08ฯƒ
4 Sep 20260.32ฯƒ
8 Sep 20260.94ฯƒ
9 Sep 20260.62ฯƒ
10 Sep 20260.78ฯƒ
11 Sep 20261.09ฯƒ
14 Sep 20261.02ฯƒ
15 Sep 20260.74ฯƒ
16 Sep 20260.68ฯƒ
17 Sep 20260.53ฯƒ
18 Sep 20260.11ฯƒ
21 Sep 20260.47ฯƒ
22 Sep 20260.81ฯƒ
23 Sep 20260.94ฯƒ
24 Sep 20260.76ฯƒ
25 Sep 20260.99ฯƒ
28 Sep 20261.01ฯƒ
29 Sep 20261.02ฯƒ
30 Sep 20260.85ฯƒ
1 Oct 20260.59ฯƒ
2 Oct 20260.64ฯƒ
5 Oct 20261.03ฯƒ
6 Oct 20261.60ฯƒ
7 Oct 20261.37ฯƒ
8 Oct 20261.62ฯƒ
Separate the two contributions

What actually drove the recent move?

The depressed leg can recover, the extended leg can weaken, or both can move together at different speeds.

Completed windowSUDepressed legSHELExtended legReturn differenceSU less SHEL
1 week2026-09-11 โ†’ 2026-09-180.8%-2.3%3.1 pp
4 weeks2026-08-21 โ†’ 2026-09-182.1%1.3%0.8 pp
13 weeks2026-06-19 โ†’ 2026-09-1825.4%20.0%5.5 pp

Observed price returns over shared weekly dates. Percentage-point differences use equal weights; they are not the fitted spread or a trading return.

Specific pair playbook

What is the play in SU / SHEL?

Use the current conditions as checkpoints. A strong historical relationship and a wide gap can still lack a supported entry case.

Watchlist pair - not triggered

Possible future structure: long SU / short SHEL

The proposed pair would look for SU to outperform SHEL, but the current evidence does not yet justify treating the gap as a convergence trade.

01 ยท Relationship91/100

Stability 89/100 ยท break risk 10/100

02 ยท Separation0.85ฯƒ

Distance from the historical centre, not a price target.

03 ยท Supporting evidence49/100

Direction and supporting research compared across both securities.

04 ยท Daily turnGap extending

Through 08 Oct 2026

What would confirm it?

The next useful observation

Look for continued repair in the weaker leg and a turn lower in the absolute spread before treating convergence as established.

Wait for a completed daily turn toward normal and fresh evidence that SU is improving relative to SHEL. The size of the gap alone is not the trigger.

What keeps it valid?

Follow both sides of the pair

If the daily gap keeps widening, leave the pair alone rather than averaging into the separation.

A favourable relative move means SU rises more than SHEL, falls less than SHEL, or rises while SHEL falls. If SHEL outperforms SU, the pair moves against the case.

What would cancel it?

Recognise a changing relationship

A renewed deterioration in the weaker leg would turn repair into continued divergence.

Do not use the pair if the completed gap keeps widening, SU continues to weaken relative to SHEL, or the relationship moves into a break state.

Possible setup paths ยท How the relative-value idea could be expressed
Two-leg convergence structure

Long SU / short SHEL

Treat both legs as one relative position. The setup looks for SU to outperform SHEL; SU can rise faster, fall less, or rise while SHEL falls. The pair loses ground when SHEL outperforms SU.

When it becomes relevant This is a structure to study only after the current course changes from โ€œWait for the daily turnโ€ to confirmed convergence. The clearest next checkpoint is a sustained turn from a stable or extending daily gap to a narrowing one.

Principal risk Requires a live review of both legs, borrow availability and cost, event dates, liquidity and the research normalisation.

Depressed-leg recovery study

Study SU alone if its own evidence confirms

This simpler expression focuses on recovery in SU. It avoids short-borrow mechanics, but it no longer isolates relative value: the result is exposed to the broad market, the sector and SU-specific news.

When it becomes relevant A stronger case needs improving SU price structure and supporting evidence, not just a wide relationship gap.

Principal risk Carries full single-security and broad-market direction risk.

Extended-leg rollover study

Study SHEL alone if its support continues to weaken

This expression focuses on weakness in SHEL. It may fit a leader-rollover case, but it also abandons the relative hedge and adds direct market direction, squeeze and company-event risk.

When it becomes relevant Weakening in SHEL must be visible in its own completed evidence; relative extension alone is not enough.

Principal risk Short selling can involve unlimited loss, borrow fees, recalls and forced close-outs.

Explore possibilities ยท fixed weekly relationship

Different price moves. Different outcomes for the gap.

Test hypothetical moves from the published weekly close. The result shows distance from the fitted centre; it is not a forecast, position size or profit estimate.

0.70ฯƒ from the centre

Example: SU +5%, SHEL +2%.

The same percentage move in both names does not necessarily leave the fitted gap unchanged: their historical sensitivity is 1.907, relative to the depressed leg.

Compare the examples
ScenarioSUSHELNew gap
Both rise5%2%0.70ฯƒ
Both fall-2%-5%0.25ฯƒPast centre
Move in opposite directions3%-3%0.39ฯƒPast centre
The gap works against you-3%3%2.09ฯƒ
Current distance: 0.85ฯƒ. Examples use the same fixed fit as the calculator.
How the scenario is calculated

Keep the published weekly fit and its historical spread variation fixed. The change is log(1 + depressed-leg return) minus 1.907 ร— log(1 + extended-leg return), expressed in standard deviations. Returns enter as decimals. If the depressed leg is the modelโ€™s second security, both the coefficient and spread scale are inverted consistently.

Starting point: 18 Sep 2026. The calculation does not refit the relationship, forecast how either security moves or include fees, dividends or borrow costs. A result beyond the centre can become a new gap on the opposite side.

Supporting research for both securities

Check the story behind the separation

The comparison below is saved with the weekly pair edition. Linked apps may have newer readings; compare their dates before combining evidence.

Evidence now
  • SU Market Dynamics is improving.
What can overwhelm the relationship?
  • Borrow availability, borrow cost and locate status are not stored and must be checked before any short sale.
  • Pair relationships can break after company-specific news, earnings, capital actions or a structural industry change.
Fitted sensitivity

0.524ร—

A 1% move in SU is associated with approximately 0.524% in SHEL in the historical log-price fit.

This coefficient is not a share ratio or a position-size instruction. The displayed hedge ratio is a research normalisation, not a position-size instruction. Live borrow and transaction costs are outside the stored evidence set.

Relationship diagnostics

Why this pair is on the map

Separate how well the relationship fits the past from what happened in later, held-out observations.

Return co-movement0.70

Correlation of completed weekly returns.

Historical stability89/100

Consistency across earlier and later parts of the sample.

Estimated half-life4.7 weeks

Estimated time to halve a deviation under the fitted model, not a deadline.

Centre crossings19

Observed crossings in 156 completed weeks.

Tradability context99/100

Stored price, size and volume; no live short-borrow information.

Held-out resolution 3 / 3

Historical separations returned near the centre

Non-overlapping cases measured using a relationship fitted on earlier data. Small sample: 3 cases. These outcomes are descriptive, not a future probability or a trading backtest.

Observed resolution rate
100.0%
Median time among resolved cases
5.0 weeks
Largest further extension
0.75ฯƒ
State history ยท what changed and when
Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-10-06.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-10-05.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-10-01.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-23.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-18.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-17.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-15.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-08.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-04.

Research state changed

Changed from Balanced relationship to Early repair.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-03.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-08-31.

Same-industry comparisons

Put this pair beside its peers

Measure guide

Weekly separation

How far the latest completed weekly relationship sits from its own historical centre.

A larger reading means the two securities are unusually far apart relative to this relationship's completed history. It identifies a dislocation; it does not, by itself, predict convergence.
Measure guide

Daily timing

The direction of the gap across the latest completed daily sessions.

Narrowing means the daily gap has begun to close, extending means it has widened, and stable means the change is not yet material. The weekly relationship remains the primary research clock.
Measure guide

Relationship quality

A public summary of how dependable the completed historical relationship has been.

It brings together repeatability, stability and later-sample behaviour. Higher is stronger, but no score guarantees that a historical relationship will continue.
Measure guide

Evidence alignment

Whether the wider stored evidence supports the depressed leg relative to the extended leg.

The comparison uses published price structure and supporting research for both securities. Higher alignment means more of that evidence points in the same relative direction; construction weights are not disclosed.
Measure guide

Stability

How consistently the relationship held across earlier and later completed observations.

Higher stability means the relationship changed less across the sample. It is a durability check, not a forecast or a guarantee of mean reversion.
Measure guide

Break risk

The risk that the earlier relationship is no longer a dependable reference point.

Lower is better. A high reading warns that the separation may reflect new information or a structural change rather than a temporary gap.
Measure guide

Fitted price sensitivity

The coefficient in the historical log-price relationship, not a number of shares.

The fit compares log price A with a constant plus this coefficient times log price B. For small percentage moves, it describes how much A historically moved with a 1% move in B. It is not a position-size instruction or a hedge in shares; portfolio value, live borrow, costs and risk limits are separate.
Measure guide

Held-out resolution

How often earlier measured separations later moved back near their fitted centre.

Each historical check is fitted only on information that came before it. The result is descriptive evidence from this relationship's history, not an expected return or future probability.

Evidence context