Weekly structural research · NYSE · Energy

SU Stage Analysis

Suncor Energy Inc

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close USD 69.56Tenure DevelopingBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Re-accelerating

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction 63−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 58/100directional strength

Maturity 23/100lifecycle context

Confidence 92/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance +66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +65.7%USD 41.97 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	69.56	63.79	14.04	17334462	Upward Expansion	63	58
2026-09-25	68.19	63.36	12.35	19656291	Upward Expansion	60	59
2026-09-18	69.41	62.94	16.52	20044720	Upward Expansion	69	63
2026-09-11	68.83	62.46	16.29	17765011	Upward Expansion	66	62
2026-09-04	67.33	62.00	13.66	32893485	Upward Expansion	63	53
2026-08-28	65.01	61.53	10.60	17825382	Upward Expansion	53	35
2026-08-21	67.98	61.10	16.85	13072283	Upward Expansion	69	57
2026-08-14	65.40	60.51	11.67	26343428	Upward Expansion	59	41
2026-08-07	59.71	59.96	2.78	31994734	Rotation Down	31	31
2026-07-31	66.85	59.51	19.63	18420993	Rotation Down	55	42
2026-07-24	65.81	58.78	19.93	18108900	Rotation Down	47	26
2026-07-17	62.43	58.00	13.95	19163109	Rotation Down	11	23
2026-07-10	59.25	57.32	7.13	22290868	Rotation Down	-22	42
2026-07-03	55.05	56.81	1.31	16783236	Deceleration	-28	45
2026-06-26	53.90	56.43	1.72	24082084	Deceleration	-15	30
2026-06-19	55.33	56.09	2.32	30996999	Deceleration	-7	18
2026-06-12	61.60	55.68	15.22	24493967	Upward Expansion	36	20
2026-06-05	62.22	55.08	17.54	26003221	Upward Expansion	44	33
2026-05-29	61.95	54.39	14.86	12500578	Upward Expansion	58	44
2026-05-22	66.90	53.62	26.64	15210675	Upward Expansion	66	57
2026-05-15	67.84	52.69	30.62	16928717	Upward Expansion	74	60
2026-05-08	63.59	51.68	23.83	18751454	Upward Expansion	60	52
2026-05-01	67.11	50.85	34.74	13976075	Upward Expansion	79	65
2026-04-24	63.58	49.96	30.00	14572617	Upward Expansion	66	62
2026-04-17	60.76	49.22	25.84	21343241	Upward Expansion	66	66
2026-04-10	64.01	48.55	39.42	22450685	Upward Expansion	68	75
2026-04-03	65.47	47.78	49.17	25240219	Upward Expansion	81	85
2026-03-27	66.22	46.89	57.71	26681236	Upward Expansion	92	81
2026-03-20	63.29	46.02	49.00	33368502	Upward Expansion	93	76
2026-03-13	59.20	45.20	38.21	28907247	Upward Expansion	86	74
2026-03-06	56.47	44.48	30.88	39845335	Upward Expansion	77	77
2026-02-27	55.72	43.86	27.51	13093034	Upward Expansion	78	89
2026-02-20	54.95	43.26	25.87	26026181	Upward Expansion	79	91
2026-02-13	55.20	42.69	28.51	21539127	Upward Expansion	89	95
2026-02-06	53.04	42.10	22.61	37863302	Upward Expansion	86	94
2026-01-30	52.22	41.63	21.04	22991587	Upward Expansion	88	95
2026-01-23	50.15	41.12	17.28	15503876	Upward Expansion	87	94
2026-01-16	49.04	40.66	14.68	23220044	Upward Expansion	88	83
2026-01-09	46.03	40.32	7.55	36796869	Upward Expansion	78	54
2026-01-02	44.95	40.10	6.75	12294711	Upward Expansion	75	49
2025-12-26	42.50	39.79	0.11	8321430	Upward Expansion	59	43
2025-12-19	42.15	39.51	0.85	21074504	Upward Expansion	63	51
2025-12-12	43.74	39.24	5.00	27300025	Upward Expansion	68	77
2025-12-05	43.63	38.92	4.31	32642648	Upward Expansion	68	79
2025-11-28	43.73	38.58	5.01	12613089	Upward Expansion	73	81
2025-11-21	43.28	38.27	7.84	16081273	Upward Expansion	72	74
2025-11-14	43.32	37.96	5.85	23861117	Deceleration	75	55
2025-11-07	41.62	37.62	1.82	28075301	Deceleration	53	23
2025-10-31	38.87	37.29	-6.44	13002753	Deceleration	25	22
2025-10-24	38.89	37.06	-5.89	19084113	Deceleration	30	22
2025-10-17	37.68	36.98	-7.23	13982378	Upward Expansion	30	20
2025-10-10	38.56	36.92	-3.62	21201467	Upward Expansion	58	43
2025-10-03	40.38	36.80	-1.73	14229244	Upward Expansion	64	69
2025-09-26	41.62	36.59	2.23	19363298	Upward Expansion	78	79
2025-09-19	40.57	36.41	-0.56	25475928	Upward Expansion	70	74
2025-09-12	40.74	36.30	1.06	17748120	Upward Expansion	77	74
2025-09-05	39.03	36.19	-1.64	23707132	Upward Expansion	59	50
2025-08-29	39.92	36.11	0.78	19106096	Upward Expansion	72	50
2025-08-22	38.65	35.96	-2.63	24545121	Upward Expansion	61	38
2025-08-15	37.58	35.90	-5.30	11397249	Upward Expansion	44	31
2025-08-08	37.91	35.88	-3.88	19325621	Upward Expansion	55	36
2025-08-01	37.73	35.86	-2.25	16394561	Upward Expansion	55	40
2025-07-25	37.97	35.75	-4.14	14544689	Upward Expansion	59	47
2025-07-18	37.55	35.59	-3.95	16956302	Upward Expansion	56	41
2025-07-11	38.76	35.43	-0.41	20817639	Upward Expansion	71	67
2025-07-04	37.07	35.29	-5.07	12898487	Upward Expansion	60	68
2025-06-27	36.33	35.27	-5.51	29740297	Rotation Up	49	58
2025-06-20	38.81	35.29	4.22	27417863	Rotation Up	36	55
2025-06-13	39.59	35.29	6.22	28307262	Downward Expansion	38	38
2025-06-06	35.55	35.23	-4.87	38311072	Downward Expansion	-19	12
2025-05-30	33.97	35.26	-7.79	15512405	Downward Expansion	-34	17
2025-05-23	34.13	35.30	-6.14	14874323	Downward Expansion	-35	17
2025-05-16	34.07	35.38	-9.01	16311794	Downward Expansion	-38	19
2025-05-09	33.41	35.46	-6.41	43278375	Downward Expansion	-54	29
2025-05-02	34.45	35.61	-4.26	20787494	Downward Expansion	-52	39
2025-04-25	34.02	35.71	-2.94	15993882	Downward Expansion	-56	62
2025-04-18	33.01	35.72	-1.80	14195918	Downward Expansion	-58	62
2025-04-11	31.97	35.78	-6.51	43192580	Downward Expansion	-70	62
2025-04-04	31.73	35.85	-2.19	22960322	Balance	-73	55
2025-03-28	36.64	35.96	2.49	15472442	Balance	2	10
2025-03-21	35.79	35.99	-1.35	25725432	Balance	-36	25
2025-03-14	35.05	36.05	-2.90	26955357	Balance	-37	22
2025-03-07	34.16	36.16	-7.63	43504601	Balance	-27	11
2025-02-28	36.18	36.25	-5.26	18259482	Balance	20	17
2025-02-21	37.32	36.18	-3.27	14562717	Balance	55	31
2025-02-14	37.39	36.12	-4.62	25431998	Balance	21	21
2025-02-07	36.62	36.06	-5.17	28883693	Balance	3	12
2025-01-31	35.50	36.02	-8.18	19128927	Balance	-3	17
2025-01-24	36.81	36.00	-5.76	13343474	Balance	13	19
2025-01-17	36.89	35.95	-3.96	27794595	Rotation Down	8	5
2025-01-10	37.22	35.86	-0.19	19219221	Rotation Down	-10	35
2025-01-03	34.43	35.74	-9.42	10723647	Rotation Down	-34	59
2024-12-27	33.32	35.77	-12.99	11646431	Rotation Down	-40	56
2024-12-20	32.60	35.90	-14.46	22561659	Upward Expansion	-36	33
2024-12-13	34.76	36.05	-10.67	23299388	Upward Expansion	13	6
2024-12-06	36.27	36.11	-7.41	30839397	Upward Expansion	46	41
2024-11-29	36.93	36.13	-4.96	18924166	Upward Expansion	51	47
2024-11-22	38.84	36.06	1.02	19585200	Balance	65	47
2024-11-15	37.86	35.97	0.11	34568692	Balance	57	26
2024-11-08	36.63	35.89	-5.27	11763674	Balance	45	18
2024-11-01	35.16	35.82	-4.94	15028606	Balance	22	14
2024-10-25	36.44	35.84	-3.09	11405156	Balance	45	29
2024-10-18	36.57	35.75	-3.92	11828926	Balance	42	25
2024-10-11	37.78	35.63	-0.19	13792541	Balance	52	25
2024-10-04	37.38	35.47	-0.29	17158138	Balance	36	21
2024-09-27	34.42	35.27	-8.03	23425973	Balance	-17	24
2024-09-20	34.80	35.19	-6.83	18739644	Upward Expansion	17	17
2024-09-13	34.08	35.06	-7.73	20436464	Upward Expansion	14	7
2024-09-06	34.91	34.92	-2.03	28144353	Upward Expansion	41	41
2024-08-30	37.53	34.73	0.82	15334870	Upward Expansion	60	62
2024-08-23	37.81	34.44	1.78	21543657	Upward Expansion	64	54
2024-08-16	38.27	34.17	4.49	16737773	Deceleration	70	46
2024-08-09	36.72	33.85	4.32	25512172	Deceleration	48	24
2024-08-02	34.01	33.61	-3.22	18160717	Deceleration	21	13
2024-07-26	35.64	33.50	-0.66	13013140	Deceleration	39	24
2024-07-19	35.66	33.28	-1.28	16804657	Deceleration	39	23
2024-07-12	35.43	33.06	-3.66	14516020	Deceleration	23	13
2024-07-05	34.97	32.81	-3.82	16459702	Deceleration	27	22
2024-06-28	35.27	32.57	-1.04	24976015	Deceleration	30	25
2024-06-21	33.96	32.39	-4.62	31385047	Deceleration	36	23
2024-06-14	33.86	32.23	-4.17	26882043	Upward Expansion	46	33
2024-06-07	35.17	32.11	1.20	32280430	Upward Expansion	62	51
2024-05-31	37.39	31.93	9.04	27293112	Upward Expansion	74	66
2024-05-24	36.91	31.69	7.55	25451998	Upward Expansion	71	63
2024-05-17	36.72	31.43	7.29	26903393	Upward Expansion	74	66
2024-05-10	36.72	31.22	9.35	22576476	Upward Expansion	79	68
2024-05-03	35.03	31.01	6.54	18131124	Upward Expansion	66	64
2024-04-26	36.10	30.80	10.63	14458305	Upward Expansion	81	90
2024-04-19	35.30	30.63	11.20	23380015	Upward Expansion	77	89
2024-04-12	34.52	30.46	5.60	20296621	Upward Expansion	71	87
2024-04-05	35.72	30.36	7.60	21246005	Upward Expansion	91	95
2024-03-29	33.81	30.19	0.96	13269904	Upward Expansion	81	85
2024-03-22	32.88	30.08	-1.55	16026890	Upward Expansion	75	81
2024-03-15	33.05	29.95	1.13	27294896	Upward Expansion	79	79
2024-03-08	31.56	29.82	-3.50	25547508	Balance	63	66
2024-03-01	32.00	29.70	-2.78	33812912	Balance	42	48
2024-02-23	30.71	29.54	-6.21	17393722	Balance	26	23
2024-02-16	29.95	29.42	-7.40	28312168	Balance	17	8
2024-02-09	29.10	29.29	-10.63	17747757	Balance	-13	9
2024-02-02	29.08	29.17	-9.86	15358175	Deceleration	16	7
2024-01-26	29.65	29.06	-7.08	14137207	Deceleration	25	15
2024-01-19	28.52	28.93	-10.06	12202560	Deceleration	19	12
2024-01-12	29.69	28.81	-5.63	20437787	Deceleration	31	18
2024-01-05	30.61	28.71	-1.13	20800226	Deceleration	39	15
2023-12-29	29.01	28.58	-7.87	9015105	Deceleration	8	15
2023-12-22	29.00	28.47	-7.91	19327630	Deceleration	10	15
2023-12-15	28.00	28.33	-10.53	32243147	Deceleration	2	13
2023-12-08	27.84	28.23	-9.14	28550228	Deceleration	3	7
2023-12-01	29.87	28.13	-2.44	40762349	Deceleration	26	15
2023-11-24	29.27	28.00	-3.67	15123156	Deceleration	36	20
2023-11-17	30.23	27.93	0.14	24941751	Deceleration	43	23
2023-11-10	29.69	27.80	0.30	33310584	Deceleration	39	22
2023-11-03	30.20	27.76	3.05	16331366	Deceleration	45	29
2023-10-27	29.05	27.67	4.53	18968980	Upward Expansion	41	24
2023-10-20	30.32	27.60	6.26	16884318	Upward Expansion	48	36
2023-10-13	30.61	27.43	4.55	18880416	Upward Expansion	56	41

Price vs TrendAbove+9.0%

Trend directionRising+8.5%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+65.7%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+24.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+14.0%

Relative strength directionImproving+12.7%

Price momentumPositive+6.3%

Volume balanceDemand-led2.96×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

63 / ±100

+0.3 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

58 /100

+5.2 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

SU Directional State ↗ SU Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance16

Rotation Up64

Upward Expansion85

Deceleration48

Rotation Down14

Downward Expansion12

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 16%Rotation Up 1%Upward Expansion 51%Deceleration 19%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 6%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-08-14	2026-10-02	Developing	+6.4%
Rotation Down	2026-07-10	2026-08-07	Developing	+0.8%
Deceleration	2026-06-19	2026-07-03	New	-0.5%
Upward Expansion	2025-11-21	2026-06-12	Extended	+42.3%
Deceleration	2025-10-24	2025-11-14	New	+11.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-04	2025-10-17	Established	+1.7%
Rotation Up	2025-06-20	2025-06-27	New	-6.4%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-11	2025-06-13	Developing	+23.9%
Balance	2025-01-24	2025-04-04	Developing	-13.8%
Rotation Down	2024-12-27	2025-01-17	New	+10.7%
Upward Expansion	2024-11-29	2024-12-20	New	-11.7%
Balance	2024-09-27	2024-11-22	Developing	+12.9%
Upward Expansion	2024-08-23	2024-09-20	Developing	-7.9%
Deceleration	2024-06-21	2024-08-16	Developing	+12.7%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing24

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution49

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 97/100
Current Relative Strength: 14.04
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +6.3%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -11.4%
Energy regime cohort: 74th percentile73 in cohort

Test SU trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.82×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume2.96×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore SU Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 68.92rising

Slow Activity USD 64.53rising

Trend Reference USD 63.79+9.0% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 41.97+65.7% close margin

Structural low USD 53.29shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +6.2%

Annualized volatility +38.0%

From structural high -3.5%

From structural low +88.6%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	33	-0.6%-15.4% to +16.4%	+48.5%	+48.5%	-2.1%	+69.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	14	+1.4%-15.9% to +45.7%	+71.4%	+71.4%	-2.0%	+57.1%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	9	+9.1%+2.8% to +22.5%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+5.6%	+44.4%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	5	+19.5%-6.4% to +68.9%	+80.0%	+80.0%	+1.1%	+80.0%	Usable descriptive sample

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

SU Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map