Weekly structural research · GER · Consumer Cyclical

AMZ Stage Analysis

Amazon.com, Inc.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close EUR 218.45Tenure NewBenchmark ^GDAXI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Upper balance after advance

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 24−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 17/100directional strength

Maturity 27/100lifecycle context

Confidence 88/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance +0.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +18.7%EUR 184.03 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	218.45	213.63	3.20	129615	Balance	24	17
2026-09-18	220.35	212.22	4.70	118631	Upward Expansion	32	15
2026-09-11	220.65	210.77	3.83	86777	Upward Expansion	36	19
2026-09-04	220.10	209.03	1.76	84483	Upward Expansion	51	31
2026-08-28	229.95	207.50	4.23	90735	Upward Expansion	58	59
2026-08-21	222.05	206.59	2.43	24021	Upward Expansion	57	64
2026-08-14	227.85	205.96	4.02	16809	Upward Expansion	57	64
2026-08-07	240.55	205.21	10.46	21574	Upward Expansion	79	70
2026-07-31	231.75	204.24	9.60	186051	Deceleration	58	34
2026-07-24	204.70	202.94	-0.90	24249	Deceleration	10	9
2026-07-17	217.00	202.65	6.19	28140	Deceleration	27	16
2026-07-10	215.05	201.90	4.44	24354	Deceleration	28	21
2026-07-03	212.35	201.15	0.43	23182	Deceleration	25	26
2026-06-26	203.60	200.65	0.69	34328	Deceleration	25	27
2026-06-19	211.70	200.55	3.49	12740	Upward Expansion	41	24
2026-06-12	205.05	199.80	1.82	42958	Upward Expansion	49	38
2026-06-05	219.50	199.79	8.58	26422	Upward Expansion	65	57
2026-05-29	233.50	199.38	14.25	104025	Upward Expansion	74	85
2026-05-22	232.00	198.72	14.99	90931	Upward Expansion	76	87
2026-05-15	226.35	197.40	17.09	137511	Upward Expansion	71	86
2026-05-08	231.50	195.89	18.32	204905	Upward Expansion	82	90
2026-05-01	219.75	194.48	13.14	320619	Rotation Up	70	78
2026-04-24	223.45	193.48	16.33	259771	Rotation Up	42	59
2026-04-17	215.45	192.29	10.06	286331	Downward Expansion	35	31
2026-04-10	203.60	191.72	8.33	210321	Downward Expansion	-10	9
2026-04-03	182.26	191.45	-0.17	94057	Downward Expansion	-43	29
2026-03-27	174.30	191.98	-0.80	202816	Downward Expansion	-62	36
2026-03-20	178.68	192.69	1.30	104371	Downward Expansion	-58	36
2026-03-13	181.70	193.21	-1.65	171537	Downward Expansion	-57	41
2026-03-06	185.58	193.74	-0.20	428552	Downward Expansion	-61	69
2026-02-27	176.26	193.91	-11.55	271593	Downward Expansion	-64	76
2026-02-20	176.86	194.26	-11.59	336402	Downward Expansion	-64	71
2026-02-13	168.54	194.96	-15.08	509712	Balance	-75	65
2026-02-06	174.00	195.77	-12.26	640044	Balance	-30	17
2026-01-30	202.65	196.37	2.18	211263	Balance	49	47
2026-01-23	203.40	195.90	0.51	367550	Balance	45	41
2026-01-16	205.20	195.37	-0.72	217711	Balance	48	37
2026-01-09	211.35	194.62	1.85	187657	Balance	56	28
2026-01-02	192.80	193.70	-4.84	127487	Balance	19	12
2025-12-26	196.10	193.45	-3.11	148311	Balance	24	13
2025-12-19	194.48	192.91	-4.29	173828	Balance	24	12
2025-12-12	192.46	192.34	-5.50	151600	Balance	23	15
2025-12-05	197.36	192.07	-3.05	149789	Upward Expansion	35	16
2025-11-28	200.55	191.18	-1.19	148901	Upward Expansion	51	29
2025-11-21	189.40	190.05	-4.01	276665	Upward Expansion	43	42
2025-11-14	204.80	189.22	0.02	212338	Upward Expansion	57	59
2025-11-07	207.20	187.48	2.17	405810	Rotation Up	63	54
2025-10-31	213.45	185.85	3.23	561337	Rotation Up	68	34
2025-10-24	192.38	184.09	-8.17	245683	Balance	13	14
2025-10-17	181.32	183.63	-12.17	237093	Balance	-5	17
2025-10-10	189.06	183.61	-10.23	172204	Upward Expansion	27	17
2025-10-03	189.64	183.37	-10.68	216738	Upward Expansion	34	17
2025-09-26	187.74	183.02	-9.39	181366	Upward Expansion	39	25
2025-09-19	198.60	183.49	-3.90	189498	Upward Expansion	63	47
2025-09-12	195.38	183.87	-5.82	149978	Upward Expansion	57	44
2025-09-05	198.24	184.62	-4.21	160689	Upward Expansion	64	58
2025-08-29	195.66	185.40	-6.68	104222	Upward Expansion	60	49
2025-08-22	194.22	186.55	-9.16	106954	Rotation Up	30	26
2025-08-15	197.42	187.51	-7.76	174457	Rotation Up	40	34
2025-08-08	190.82	188.19	-10.26	387170	Rotation Up	28	26
2025-08-01	186.72	188.92	-9.58	397657	Rotation Up	22	35
2025-07-25	197.74	189.95	-7.51	192705	Balance	36	55
2025-07-18	192.86	190.48	-10.23	166732	Balance	8	38
2025-07-11	192.16	191.24	-10.69	173323	Balance	6	30
2025-07-04	188.40	192.06	-11.03	155252	Balance	-3	13
2025-06-27	187.62	192.88	-12.70	166023	Balance	-6	13
2025-06-20	182.52	193.14	-13.00	153037	Balance	-14	15
2025-06-13	184.02	193.39	-13.25	171515	Balance	-16	16
2025-06-06	185.24	193.70	-15.81	232187	Balance	-27	23
2025-05-30	179.92	194.04	-17.46	160873	Downward Expansion	-31	23
2025-05-23	177.38	194.15	-17.57	211098	Downward Expansion	-36	23
2025-05-16	184.16	194.08	-15.18	467213	Downward Expansion	-42	27
2025-05-09	170.72	193.76	-20.70	224257	Downward Expansion	-60	48
2025-05-02	166.78	193.82	-21.47	251562	Downward Expansion	-64	56
2025-04-25	164.44	193.85	-20.04	326630	Downward Expansion	-66	64
2025-04-18	152.64	193.99	-22.44	305919	Rotation Down	-80	79
2025-04-11	158.38	194.54	-16.60	1212758	Rotation Down	-53	71
2025-04-04	160.48	194.90	-16.95	842904	Rotation Down	-59	78
2025-03-28	178.72	194.74	-15.28	253235	Rotation Down	-36	69
2025-03-21	180.60	194.07	-16.18	291569	Rotation Down	-38	62
2025-03-14	181.74	193.34	-16.20	356355	Rotation Down	-41	47
2025-03-07	179.34	192.67	-17.56	399750	Rotation Down	-21	32
2025-02-28	201.80	191.80	-5.60	363984	Upward Expansion	29	21
2025-02-21	210.00	190.17	-0.66	172081	Upward Expansion	48	41
2025-02-14	217.95	188.74	2.10	194127	Upward Expansion	62	56
2025-02-07	221.50	187.08	7.32	380600	Upward Expansion	64	61
2025-01-31	230.15	185.67	11.95	407560	Upward Expansion	81	67
2025-01-24	222.95	184.15	10.43	241374	Upward Expansion	76	66
2025-01-17	218.00	182.82	10.92	202548	Upward Expansion	71	65
2025-01-10	212.70	181.41	12.35	113664	Upward Expansion	67	65
2025-01-03	217.55	180.02	17.19	96507	Upward Expansion	74	86
2024-12-27	213.55	178.49	15.28	65170	Upward Expansion	68	87
2024-12-20	215.65	176.74	17.59	325686	Upward Expansion	79	91
2024-12-13	216.95	175.14	15.88	254605	Upward Expansion	89	94
2024-12-06	212.80	173.57	14.38	254875	Upward Expansion	91	92
2024-11-29	195.46	172.29	9.64	227953	Upward Expansion	74	85
2024-11-22	190.00	171.53	8.66	297712	Upward Expansion	67	83
2024-11-15	193.48	170.78	11.64	246226	Upward Expansion	81	87
2024-11-08	195.34	169.84	13.10	395219	Rotation Up	90	85
2024-11-01	183.30	169.20	6.24	337247	Rotation Up	42	57
2024-10-25	175.30	168.78	0.73	164469	Balance	25	35
2024-10-18	174.44	168.49	-0.60	171545	Balance	25	25
2024-10-11	172.58	168.18	-0.04	246566	Balance	18	19
2024-10-04	167.76	167.77	-1.39	186930	Balance	-18	19
2024-09-27	168.52	167.57	-2.55	191269	Balance	-20	16
2024-09-20	169.14	167.43	1.93	145744	Balance	-25	13
2024-09-13	169.20	167.15	2.32	252617	Rotation Down	-32	20
2024-09-06	155.72	166.77	-3.63	257856	Rotation Down	-59	38
2024-08-30	158.68	166.93	-4.88	217489	Rotation Down	-29	41
2024-08-23	158.74	166.92	-3.38	192944	Rotation Down	-32	49
2024-08-16	161.48	166.52	0.11	300665	Rotation Down	-23	36
2024-08-09	153.44	165.84	-1.44	978242	Balance	-34	38
2024-08-02	152.80	165.43	-1.35	445954	Balance	-34	30
2024-07-26	167.12	164.77	3.59	259773	Upward Expansion	27	17
2024-07-19	168.04	163.82	5.98	299026	Upward Expansion	50	41
2024-07-12	179.14	162.86	10.00	148192	Upward Expansion	63	70
2024-07-05	184.78	161.44	15.65	227755	Upward Expansion	75	73
2024-06-28	183.08	159.83	16.73	295078	Upward Expansion	75	59
2024-06-21	175.46	158.22	12.98	179742	Deceleration	62	35
2024-06-14	170.96	156.84	11.61	139191	Deceleration	42	23
2024-06-07	171.88	155.57	9.46	161680	Deceleration	46	24
2024-05-31	161.06	154.28	3.38	144473	Upward Expansion	35	24
2024-05-24	167.64	153.22	6.83	175545	Upward Expansion	56	43
2024-05-17	169.78	151.71	8.60	212253	Upward Expansion	58	47
2024-05-10	174.26	150.00	11.69	172280	Upward Expansion	69	52
2024-05-03	172.86	148.34	16.32	360424	Upward Expansion	70	56
2024-04-26	167.32	146.56	12.55	310165	Upward Expansion	62	53
2024-04-19	165.48	145.00	14.84	319239	Upward Expansion	64	60
2024-04-12	176.10	143.60	21.82	309434	Upward Expansion	84	78
2024-04-05	170.76	142.13	17.64	201658	Upward Expansion	79	67
2024-03-29	166.54	140.75	13.72	243108	Upward Expansion	73	63
2024-03-22	165.20	139.46	15.40	268068	Upward Expansion	74	66
2024-03-15	160.02	138.02	14.30	406616	Upward Expansion	67	65
2024-03-08	161.94	136.74	17.24	299553	Upward Expansion	70	67
2024-03-01	164.14	135.54	20.38	305037	Upward Expansion	80	91
2024-02-23	160.98	134.38	21.28	369562	Upward Expansion	78	91
2024-02-16	157.70	133.00	21.97	376782	Upward Expansion	76	91
2024-02-09	160.44	131.65	26.59	344678	Upward Expansion	90	95
2024-02-02	158.56	130.35	26.30	756262	Upward Expansion	93	93
2024-01-26	146.64	129.00	17.40	298249	Upward Expansion	81	65
2024-01-19	141.12	128.09	16.50	245193	Upward Expansion	69	48
2024-01-12	141.20	127.35	16.33	313458	Upward Expansion	72	49
2024-01-05	132.92	126.50	10.99	251322	Upward Expansion	60	44
2023-12-29	138.58	125.90	15.43	100415	Upward Expansion	68	64
2023-12-22	139.26	125.16	17.15	408115	Upward Expansion	72	66
2023-12-15	136.66	124.28	15.47	330522	Upward Expansion	67	64
2023-12-08	136.50	123.32	15.98	307859	Upward Expansion	69	68
2023-12-01	134.74	122.16	17.73	263577	Upward Expansion	66	70
2023-11-24	134.08	120.85	20.52	250416	Upward Expansion	65	68
2023-11-17	132.66	119.56	20.80	323848	Upward Expansion	65	61
2023-11-10	133.16	118.40	27.42	272027	Deceleration	66	40
2023-11-03	129.40	117.04	24.89	250469	Deceleration	49	23
2023-10-27	122.16	115.81	22.55	491890	Deceleration	16	13
2023-10-20	118.52	114.91	18.24	225254	Deceleration	10	14
2023-10-13	124.42	113.97	20.50	244782	Deceleration	33	21
2023-10-06	119.56	112.90	15.18	257967	Upward Expansion	38	21

Price vs TrendAbove+2.3%

Trend directionRising+5.4%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+18.7%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+2.9%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+3.2%

Relative strength directionImproving+2.5%

Price momentumPositive+25.3%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.16×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

24 / ±100

-33.5 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

17 /100

-42.5 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

AMZ Directional State ↗ AMZ Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance54

Rotation Up22

Upward Expansion49

Deceleration91

Rotation Down33

Downward Expansion24

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 19%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 49%Deceleration 9%Rotation Down 8%Downward Expansion 10%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-09-25	2026-09-25	New	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-08-07	2026-09-18	Developing	-8.4%
Deceleration	2026-06-26	2026-07-31	Developing	+13.8%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-08	2026-06-19	Developing	-8.6%
Rotation Up	2026-04-24	2026-05-01	New	-1.7%
Downward Expansion	2026-02-20	2026-04-17	Developing	+21.8%
Balance	2025-12-12	2026-02-13	Developing	-12.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-11-14	2025-12-05	New	-3.6%
Rotation Up	2025-10-31	2025-11-07	New	-2.9%
Balance	2025-10-17	2025-10-24	New	+6.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-29	2025-10-10	Developing	-3.4%
Rotation Up	2025-08-01	2025-08-22	New	+4.0%
Balance	2025-06-06	2025-07-25	Developing	+6.7%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-25	2025-05-30	Developing	+9.4%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing29

Stage 2 · Advancing90

Stage 3 · Distribution60

Stage 4 · Declining10

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^GDAXI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 66/100
Current Relative Strength: 3.20
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +25.3%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +11.4%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 86th percentile7 in cohort

Test AMZ trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.98×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.16×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore AMZ Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 220.38falling

Slow Activity EUR 219.46rising

Trend Reference EUR 213.63+2.3% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 184.03+18.7% close margin

Structural low EUR 173.58shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +5.2%

Annualized volatility +34.9%

From structural high -9.3%

From structural low +31.7%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^GDAXI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	11	+3.8%-17.7% to +14.9%	+81.8%	+81.8%	+3.8%	+36.4%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	6	+10.1%-9.2% to +25.6%	+83.3%	+83.3%	+8.6%	+16.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+6.5%-5.1% to +50.6%	+80.0%	+80.0%	+7.7%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+22.2%-17.6% to +75.4%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+0.5%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

AMZ Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map