Weekly structural research · NASDAQ · Financial Services

BCIC Stage Analysis

BCP Investment Corp.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 6.93Tenure NewBenchmark QQQ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction -62−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 66/100directional strength

Maturity 8/100lifecycle context

Confidence 84/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance -100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -38.9%USD 11.34 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	6.93	7.31	-32.41	128049	Downward Expansion	-62	66
2026-10-02	6.89	7.34	-33.37	185990	Downward Expansion	-64	64
2026-09-25	6.94	7.42	-33.21	168633	Balance	-61	48
2026-09-18	7.03	7.53	-30.92	213907	Balance	-45	28
2026-09-11	7.04	7.65	-30.97	255994	Balance	-41	18
2026-09-04	7.25	7.79	-30.15	450635	Balance	-15	15
2026-08-28	7.68	7.92	-26.56	291321	Downward Expansion	1	16
2026-08-21	7.54	8.05	-28.37	199451	Downward Expansion	-22	17
2026-08-14	7.55	8.18	-30.85	289873	Downward Expansion	-33	22
2026-08-07	7.41	8.31	-32.13	421755	Downward Expansion	-42	32
2026-07-31	7.12	8.43	-32.24	220993	Downward Expansion	-56	44
2026-07-24	6.94	8.56	-34.29	187790	Downward Expansion	-68	53
2026-07-17	7.22	8.70	-33.41	220092	Downward Expansion	-61	54
2026-07-10	7.20	8.83	-37.14	269272	Downward Expansion	-63	58
2026-07-03	7.16	8.98	-37.06	229838	Downward Expansion	-66	64
2026-06-26	6.93	9.15	-39.30	459776	Downward Expansion	-80	86
2026-06-19	7.17	9.32	-40.65	223797	Downward Expansion	-74	83
2026-06-12	7.28	9.46	-38.92	229086	Downward Expansion	-70	76
2026-06-05	7.31	9.60	-37.90	444814	Downward Expansion	-70	62
2026-05-29	7.43	9.73	-40.33	281071	Downward Expansion	-66	55
2026-05-22	7.43	9.83	-39.34	321005	Downward Expansion	-59	52
2026-05-15	7.55	9.93	-38.25	432307	Downward Expansion	-54	51
2026-05-08	8.12	10.02	-34.46	499770	Downward Expansion	-50	51
2026-05-01	7.73	10.08	-34.83	394639	Downward Expansion	-54	57
2026-04-24	7.56	10.17	-35.97	395711	Downward Expansion	-67	65
2026-04-17	7.90	10.27	-32.35	562794	Downward Expansion	-67	67
2026-04-10	7.67	10.37	-31.05	566174	Downward Expansion	-69	89
2026-04-03	7.35	10.47	-31.61	522896	Downward Expansion	-71	90
2026-03-27	6.98	10.59	-33.32	928566	Downward Expansion	-91	97
2026-03-20	7.06	10.72	-35.63	870234	Downward Expansion	-97	99
2026-03-13	7.79	10.85	-31.27	1141599	Rotation Down	-96	98
2026-03-06	9.17	10.95	-20.98	502609	Rotation Down	-54	73
2026-02-27	10.40	11.00	-12.58	255570	Deceleration	-35	49
2026-02-20	10.59	11.00	-12.14	319652	Deceleration	-8	14
2026-02-13	11.19	11.01	-6.91	234494	Deceleration	35	20
2026-02-06	11.29	11.00	-7.89	322211	Deceleration	46	28
2026-01-30	11.35	10.99	-9.85	350191	Deceleration	46	25
2026-01-23	11.60	10.97	-8.67	273684	Deceleration	46	21
2026-01-16	11.41	10.94	-10.55	313263	Deceleration	33	23
2026-01-09	11.08	10.92	-14.45	306798	Deceleration	28	26
2026-01-02	11.02	10.88	-13.62	339025	Deceleration	34	23
2025-12-26	11.05	10.85	-15.47	377432	Upward Expansion	44	30
2025-12-19	11.09	10.82	-14.72	420125	Upward Expansion	61	52
2025-12-12	11.76	10.79	-9.62	362165	Upward Expansion	66	79
2025-12-05	12.10	10.75	-9.26	377845	Upward Expansion	79	87
2025-11-28	12.05	10.68	-9.25	278961	Upward Expansion	83	85
2025-11-21	11.63	10.61	-8.66	536906	Upward Expansion	75	63
2025-11-14	11.36	10.56	-14.07	443464	Rotation Down	67	44
2025-11-07	11.25	10.52	-15.75	330223	Rotation Down	49	22
2025-10-31	10.49	10.47	-24.39	206673	Rotation Down	-21	44
2025-10-24	10.39	10.47	-24.47	223485	Rotation Down	-23	50
2025-10-17	10.04	10.52	-26.15	236759	Rotation Down	-35	55
2025-10-10	9.95	10.60	-25.77	289866	Balance	-39	43
2025-10-03	10.52	10.68	-24.05	247205	Balance	-12	13
2025-09-26	10.62	10.78	-23.15	326014	Balance	-17	11
2025-09-19	10.80	10.89	-22.91	410803	Balance	1	6
2025-09-12	10.77	10.99	-22.16	255324	Balance	3	9
2025-09-05	10.83	11.09	-21.05	163722	Balance	-6	13
2025-08-29	10.89	11.19	-20.63	495122	Balance	-5	9
2025-08-22	10.93	11.28	-21.23	343474	Balance	-13	10
2025-08-15	10.88	11.36	-23.01	311206	Balance	-22	17
2025-08-08	10.57	11.43	-25.48	228036	Balance	-30	20
2025-08-01	10.49	11.51	-24.05	173867	Balance	-20	16
2025-07-25	10.79	11.59	-24.31	278584	Balance	-13	20
2025-07-18	10.96	11.67	-23.21	219096	Downward Expansion	-16	24
2025-07-11	10.92	11.74	-23.11	206674	Downward Expansion	-22	27
2025-07-04	10.74	11.82	-25.19	85420	Downward Expansion	-40	27
2025-06-27	10.68	11.90	-25.07	155266	Downward Expansion	-45	35
2025-06-20	10.85	12.00	-21.40	257592	Downward Expansion	-48	41
2025-06-13	9.90	12.08	-28.72	149931	Downward Expansion	-71	59
2025-06-06	10.07	12.21	-28.47	222377	Downward Expansion	-54	49
2025-05-30	10.37	12.33	-25.53	171554	Downward Expansion	-52	51
2025-05-23	10.14	12.46	-26.40	216266	Downward Expansion	-66	62
2025-05-16	10.47	12.59	-26.47	320396	Downward Expansion	-66	65
2025-05-09	10.00	12.71	-25.54	154207	Downward Expansion	-69	78
2025-05-02	10.09	12.84	-25.61	271768	Downward Expansion	-68	88
2025-04-25	10.14	12.97	-23.27	305361	Downward Expansion	-72	90
2025-04-18	9.93	13.10	-20.71	244736	Downward Expansion	-87	95
2025-04-11	9.76	13.24	-24.39	424531	Downward Expansion	-95	98
2025-04-04	10.73	13.38	-11.21	356045	Downward Expansion	-92	96
2025-03-28	11.86	13.49	-11.92	302030	Downward Expansion	-82	84
2025-03-21	12.19	13.57	-11.86	310443	Rotation Down	-76	62
2025-03-14	12.57	13.64	-9.16	252405	Rotation Down	-52	25
2025-03-07	13.55	13.69	-4.82	197220	Rotation Up	20	31
2025-02-28	13.90	13.70	-5.66	127689	Rotation Up	29	43
2025-02-21	13.86	13.72	-9.22	202676	Downward Expansion	27	33
2025-02-14	13.78	13.74	-11.88	165565	Downward Expansion	-7	20
2025-02-07	13.70	13.76	-10.13	165077	Downward Expansion	-19	19
2025-01-31	13.55	13.78	-11.18	193318	Downward Expansion	-40	26
2025-01-24	13.28	13.82	-14.43	115561	Downward Expansion	-58	42
2025-01-17	13.08	13.86	-14.81	168392	Downward Expansion	-63	52
2025-01-10	12.82	13.89	-14.36	138766	Downward Expansion	-75	69
2025-01-03	13.06	13.94	-15.02	137786	Downward Expansion	-68	66
2024-12-27	13.08	13.98	-15.89	166638	Downward Expansion	-71	74
2024-12-20	13.02	14.04	-15.85	350439	Downward Expansion	-78	75
2024-12-13	13.32	14.09	-16.09	224194	Downward Expansion	-69	72
2024-12-06	13.22	14.13	-16.32	386235	Downward Expansion	-75	73
2024-11-29	13.63	14.16	-11.15	301838	Downward Expansion	-58	64
2024-11-22	13.46	14.17	-11.81	519793	Downward Expansion	-69	63
2024-11-15	13.71	14.18	-8.68	398545	Balance	-60	45
2024-11-08	13.71	14.18	-11.94	302210	Balance	-59	28
2024-11-01	14.18	14.19	-4.11	165293	Balance	-31	13
2024-10-25	14.05	14.17	-6.61	99102	Balance	-19	12
2024-10-18	14.05	14.15	-6.73	217060	Balance	-22	18
2024-10-11	13.98	14.13	-7.38	148708	Balance	-26	28
2024-10-04	14.05	14.10	-6.02	223661	Balance	-24	29
2024-09-27	13.91	14.07	-7.19	137551	Balance	-19	26
2024-09-20	14.01	14.03	-5.98	189074	Balance	5	10
2024-09-13	13.96	13.98	-5.33	199103	Balance	2	5
2024-09-06	14.14	13.94	1.33	120607	Balance	13	7
2024-08-30	14.30	13.90	-3.69	255417	Balance	16	14
2024-08-23	14.31	13.86	-4.60	466706	Balance	17	15
2024-08-16	14.14	13.82	-5.14	299161	Balance	16	13
2024-08-09	13.77	13.77	-2.95	249813	Upward Expansion	15	10
2024-08-02	14.33	13.73	0.95	197880	Upward Expansion	52	33
2024-07-26	14.60	13.68	-0.50	112768	Upward Expansion	61	41
2024-07-19	14.40	13.61	-4.57	179416	Deceleration	53	38
2024-07-12	14.40	13.54	-8.57	147263	Deceleration	44	34
2024-07-05	14.48	13.45	-8.67	110024	Deceleration	50	36
2024-06-28	14.49	13.36	-5.65	193291	Upward Expansion	53	38
2024-06-21	14.14	13.27	-8.27	156422	Upward Expansion	49	42
2024-06-14	14.23	13.18	-7.69	144025	Upward Expansion	63	55
2024-06-07	14.40	13.09	-3.62	124740	Upward Expansion	64	62
2024-05-31	14.69	12.99	0.77	124551	Upward Expansion	75	79
2024-05-24	14.53	12.87	-2.05	197057	Upward Expansion	75	74
2024-05-17	14.62	12.77	-0.29	361338	Upward Expansion	85	81
2024-05-10	14.20	12.69	-1.40	170031	Upward Expansion	78	69
2024-05-03	13.79	12.62	-3.25	109546	Upward Expansion	64	63
2024-04-26	13.95	12.58	-1.39	101349	Upward Expansion	76	78
2024-04-19	13.69	12.54	0.16	97743	Upward Expansion	67	74
2024-04-12	13.77	12.50	-5.09	205449	Upward Expansion	74	79
2024-04-05	13.67	12.46	-6.68	303233	Upward Expansion	73	75
2024-03-29	13.54	12.43	-8.76	139100	Upward Expansion	73	70
2024-03-22	13.33	12.41	-11.16	786877	Upward Expansion	68	54
2024-03-15	13.14	12.40	-10.36	254154	Deceleration	62	38
2024-03-08	13.11	12.40	-12.21	131352	Deceleration	56	33
2024-03-01	12.72	12.40	-16.85	101724	Rotation Up	17	19
2024-02-23	12.66	12.42	-16.43	71898	Rotation Up	31	30
2024-02-16	12.72	12.44	-15.68	128795	Rotation Up	35	38
2024-02-09	12.96	12.44	-16.10	116723	Rotation Up	38	52
2024-02-02	13.11	12.45	-14.28	166539	Rotation Up	40	63
2024-01-26	12.99	12.44	-14.68	155677	Rotation Up	40	63
2024-01-19	12.66	12.43	-17.04	154077	Rotation Up	27	50
2024-01-12	12.74	12.41	-14.89	272477	Rotation Up	33	40
2024-01-05	12.70	12.41	-13.28	210116	Downward Expansion	13	27
2023-12-29	12.52	12.40	-17.94	221512	Downward Expansion	-7	17
2023-12-22	12.21	12.39	-20.53	221384	Downward Expansion	-30	21
2023-12-15	11.77	12.39	-23.48	363962	Downward Expansion	-42	31
2023-12-08	11.73	12.43	-21.90	186978	Downward Expansion	-46	37
2023-12-01	11.74	12.46	-22.06	283878	Downward Expansion	-60	48
2023-11-24	11.53	12.47	-23.98	142953	Downward Expansion	-64	71
2023-11-17	11.49	12.50	-24.19	658442	Downward Expansion	-66	80
2023-11-10	11.36	12.54	-24.10	524136	Downward Expansion	-74	84
2023-11-03	11.29	12.58	-22.91	315345	Downward Expansion	-82	85
2023-10-27	11.38	12.63	-17.90	169706	Rotation Down	-85	78
2023-10-20	12.11	12.67	-15.35	102411	Rotation Down	-32	45

Price vs TrendBelow-5.2%

Trend directionFalling-13.3%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-38.9%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+0.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-32.4%

Relative strength directionImproving+4.7%

Price momentumNegative-9.6%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.95×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-62 / ±100

-20.7 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

66 /100

+48.0 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

BCIC Directional State ↗ BCIC Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance24

Rotation Up10

Upward Expansion14

Deceleration37

Rotation Down75

Downward Expansion92

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 19%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 15%Deceleration 9%Rotation Down 7%Downward Expansion 43%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-10-02	2026-10-09	New	+0.6%
Balance	2026-09-04	2026-09-25	New	-4.2%
Downward Expansion	2026-03-20	2026-08-28	Established	+8.8%
Rotation Down	2026-03-06	2026-03-13	New	-15.0%
Deceleration	2026-01-02	2026-02-27	Developing	-5.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-11-21	2025-12-26	Developing	-5.0%
Rotation Down	2025-10-17	2025-11-14	Developing	+13.1%
Balance	2025-07-25	2025-10-10	Developing	-7.8%
Downward Expansion	2025-03-28	2025-07-18	Established	-7.6%
Rotation Down	2025-03-14	2025-03-21	New	-3.0%
Rotation Up	2025-02-28	2025-03-07	New	-2.5%
Downward Expansion	2024-11-22	2025-02-21	Established	+3.0%
Balance	2024-08-16	2024-11-15	Established	-3.0%
Upward Expansion	2024-07-26	2024-08-09	New	-5.7%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing68

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution9

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 86/100
Current Relative Strength: -32.41
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -9.6%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -32.5%
Financial Services regime cohort: 44th percentile71 in cohort

Test BCIC trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.48×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.95×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore BCIC Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 6.94falling

Slow Activity USD 7.24falling

Trend Reference USD 7.31-5.2% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 11.34-38.9% close margin

Structural low USD 6.62shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +4.7%

Annualized volatility +21.5%

From structural high -44.2%

From structural low +4.7%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs QQQ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	24	+0.7%-14.4% to +11.9%	+54.2%	+45.8%	-0.3%	+70.8%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	9	+5.8%-26.8% to +17.2%	+77.8%	+22.2%	-1.2%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	7	-0.4%-24.6% to +26.0%	+42.9%	+57.1%	-18.0%	+42.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+3.4%-13.6% to +18.7%	+66.7%	+33.3%	-14.0%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

BCIC Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map