Weekly structural research · NASDAQ · Technology

AXTI Stage Analysis

AXT Inc

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 68.46Tenure DevelopingBenchmark QQQ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Balance after decline

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction -15−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 15/100directional strength

Maturity 32/100lifecycle context

Confidence 68/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance +0.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +257.4%USD 19.16 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	68.46	76.94	18.93	36329305	Balance	-15	15
2026-10-02	85.87	76.29	52.74	39855236	Balance	17	15
2026-09-25	78.94	74.51	45.32	40637631	Balance	-16	9
2026-09-18	70.03	73.14	36.72	51567077	Balance	-18	21
2026-09-11	64.77	71.79	30.79	36156973	Balance	-18	19
2026-09-04	61.64	70.44	26.73	38400188	Balance	-10	8
2026-08-28	58.63	69.19	23.79	35652651	Balance	-9	13
2026-08-21	70.74	67.85	53.41	62979471	Balance	9	14
2026-08-14	81.64	66.08	77.58	54519162	Balance	26	15
2026-08-07	88.58	64.09	101.48	85433864	Rotation Down	23	18
2026-07-31	60.43	61.91	50.09	70133910	Rotation Down	-23	42
2026-07-24	47.23	60.45	21.31	31472980	Rotation Down	-28	44
2026-07-17	45.86	59.39	18.51	47027689	Deceleration	-30	34
2026-07-10	57.21	58.35	44.77	43257023	Deceleration	-3	21
2026-07-03	56.62	56.93	49.84	28169408	Deceleration	7	17
2026-06-26	70.15	55.43	92.52	64953121	Deceleration	26	22
2026-06-19	84.57	53.45	129.84	42305975	Upward Expansion	39	23
2026-06-12	97.18	50.93	183.31	45497188	Upward Expansion	48	39
2026-06-05	89.04	48.04	180.38	43267118	Upward Expansion	62	53
2026-05-29	103.16	45.39	227.40	34036580	Upward Expansion	67	64
2026-05-22	140.83	42.21	390.10	48011809	Upward Expansion	87	89
2026-05-15	123.78	37.72	380.63	43789908	Upward Expansion	85	84
2026-05-08	116.36	33.74	395.39	60027582	Upward Expansion	88	85
2026-05-01	96.00	30.00	375.81	61796560	Upward Expansion	85	74
2026-04-24	76.16	26.97	321.07	78833066	Upward Expansion	74	66
2026-04-17	82.56	24.59	406.45	54406678	Upward Expansion	88	72
2026-04-10	64.18	21.98	362.09	83949160	Upward Expansion	77	67
2026-04-03	52.84	19.96	335.14	73562198	Upward Expansion	67	71
2026-03-27	60.63	18.30	464.89	54233135	Upward Expansion	88	87
2026-03-20	54.24	16.38	446.69	52165551	Upward Expansion	90	91
2026-03-13	48.86	14.67	437.14	57029191	Upward Expansion	92	89
2026-03-06	32.37	13.11	290.80	54447520	Upward Expansion	69	70
2026-02-27	37.90	12.10	386.18	42664179	Upward Expansion	89	84
2026-02-20	29.68	10.90	316.77	25273309	Upward Expansion	83	65
2026-02-13	24.24	9.99	272.27	40577350	Upward Expansion	73	57
2026-02-06	24.06	9.26	289.84	35496250	Upward Expansion	78	60
2026-01-30	18.54	8.53	215.75	30621288	Upward Expansion	64	59
2026-01-23	17.40	7.99	212.34	24844418	Upward Expansion	66	62
2026-01-16	22.09	7.47	318.68	33738241	Upward Expansion	82	71
2026-01-09	22.99	6.80	364.83	63571491	Upward Expansion	93	76
2026-01-02	16.76	6.10	276.10	31991108	Upward Expansion	81	72
2025-12-26	15.37	5.61	260.85	8701073	Upward Expansion	78	71
2025-12-19	14.65	5.14	269.27	21990138	Upward Expansion	81	72
2025-12-12	14.81	4.70	298.66	24506328	Upward Expansion	91	75
2025-12-05	11.58	4.26	226.28	17177448	Upward Expansion	81	72
2025-11-28	10.70	3.92	220.06	7943403	Upward Expansion	80	85
2025-11-21	8.93	3.60	194.00	14657815	Upward Expansion	67	84
2025-11-14	10.44	3.35	247.68	24554780	Upward Expansion	90	95
2025-11-07	9.46	3.05	231.96	20751076	Upward Expansion	94	91
2025-10-31	7.95	2.77	183.84	23998941	Upward Expansion	93	75
2025-10-24	6.06	2.55	128.75	13215939	Upward Expansion	89	73
2025-10-17	4.51	2.39	77.37	7968041	Upward Expansion	66	65
2025-10-10	4.03	2.30	63.99	10382202	Upward Expansion	68	77
2025-10-03	5.13	2.22	105.51	11607392	Upward Expansion	91	96
2025-09-26	4.66	2.11	91.87	10942501	Upward Expansion	92	97
2025-09-19	4.34	2.01	80.06	6936861	Upward Expansion	94	97
2025-09-12	3.66	1.91	57.29	5942322	Upward Expansion	89	95
2025-09-05	3.11	1.87	36.95	2992919	Upward Expansion	78	81
2025-08-29	2.90	1.83	29.10	2248919	Upward Expansion	77	65
2025-08-22	2.82	1.81	24.88	7007291	Upward Expansion	76	44
2025-08-15	2.05	1.79	-10.60	780305	Upward Expansion	42	26
2025-08-08	2.14	1.80	-7.35	999518	Upward Expansion	57	38
2025-08-01	1.92	1.79	-14.47	1689553	Rotation Up	60	44
2025-07-25	2.35	1.81	1.16	1387302	Rotation Up	41	60
2025-07-18	2.44	1.80	4.56	2644993	Rotation Up	51	63
2025-07-11	2.20	1.80	-5.72	4144507	Rotation Up	43	56
2025-07-04	2.14	1.80	-10.12	709525	Rotation Up	34	58
2025-06-27	2.03	1.80	-14.56	1968410	Rotation Up	29	39
2025-06-20	1.84	1.80	-20.54	1439415	Downward Expansion	18	30
2025-06-13	2.16	1.81	-8.36	8984205	Downward Expansion	17	27
2025-06-06	1.78	1.80	-26.03	1452361	Downward Expansion	-14	17
2025-05-30	1.51	1.81	-37.11	885484	Downward Expansion	-38	24
2025-05-23	1.46	1.83	-39.42	1172785	Downward Expansion	-42	29
2025-05-16	1.49	1.87	-40.77	1388037	Downward Expansion	-44	30
2025-05-09	1.25	1.91	-47.82	1333139	Downward Expansion	-63	45
2025-05-02	1.39	1.95	-43.33	1092852	Downward Expansion	-61	48
2025-04-25	1.42	1.99	-41.38	1168217	Downward Expansion	-64	67
2025-04-18	1.19	2.03	-48.48	1243790	Downward Expansion	-71	76
2025-04-11	1.16	2.06	-51.64	2109772	Downward Expansion	-77	73
2025-04-04	1.24	2.10	-45.48	2865075	Downward Expansion	-78	59
2025-03-28	1.48	2.13	-42.21	1774757	Downward Expansion	-71	55
2025-03-21	1.68	2.17	-37.53	1807003	Downward Expansion	-61	63
2025-03-14	1.80	2.21	-34.62	2418599	Downward Expansion	-62	71
2025-03-07	1.62	2.25	-44.02	2979663	Downward Expansion	-70	73
2025-02-28	1.60	2.28	-47.73	10593909	Downward Expansion	-73	69
2025-02-21	1.58	2.31	-51.15	10706359	Balance	-77	62
2025-02-14	2.23	2.37	-33.82	1375985	Balance	-45	23
2025-02-07	2.10	2.40	-36.15	1471425	Balance	-52	27
2025-01-31	2.09	2.46	-36.72	1101855	Balance	-54	27
2025-01-24	2.30	2.50	-31.72	1170678	Balance	-22	11
2025-01-17	2.26	2.54	-32.26	1361595	Downward Expansion	-33	17
2025-01-10	2.13	2.58	-34.72	972081	Downward Expansion	-39	21
2025-01-03	2.27	2.63	-32.41	1031770	Downward Expansion	-32	17
2024-12-27	2.28	2.67	-33.02	1294535	Downward Expansion	-35	19
2024-12-20	2.18	2.72	-35.66	1350492	Downward Expansion	-39	23
2024-12-13	2.31	2.77	-33.72	1530000	Downward Expansion	-53	34
2024-12-06	2.19	2.80	-37.12	3164279	Downward Expansion	-60	55
2024-11-29	2.14	2.85	-36.87	1140725	Downward Expansion	-62	72
2024-11-22	1.97	2.90	-41.60	2031975	Downward Expansion	-66	76
2024-11-15	1.84	2.93	-44.64	1884503	Downward Expansion	-76	75
2024-11-08	2.05	2.96	-40.71	2136783	Downward Expansion	-68	49
2024-11-01	2.11	3.01	-35.86	3198709	Downward Expansion	-57	33
2024-10-25	2.72	3.04	-19.06	988296	Downward Expansion	-35	19
2024-10-18	2.61	3.10	-22.32	1073052	Downward Expansion	-40	25
2024-10-11	2.58	3.18	-23.27	2456243	Downward Expansion	-55	38
2024-10-04	2.53	3.26	-24.08	1123302	Downward Expansion	-60	46
2024-09-27	2.55	3.33	-23.75	2268556	Downward Expansion	-62	63
2024-09-20	2.10	3.38	-36.83	1561162	Downward Expansion	-76	76
2024-09-13	2.35	3.44	-28.70	767762	Downward Expansion	-70	62
2024-09-06	2.32	3.44	-25.70	725524	Downward Expansion	-74	59
2024-08-30	2.65	3.45	-20.32	719687	Downward Expansion	-65	64
2024-08-23	2.94	3.45	-12.65	779993	Downward Expansion	-60	68
2024-08-16	2.87	3.43	-13.88	1932073	Downward Expansion	-59	69
2024-08-09	2.43	3.43	-23.21	1608363	Downward Expansion	-79	75
2024-08-02	2.68	3.43	-15.40	2796464	Deceleration	-45	46
2024-07-26	3.25	3.43	-1.08	1415637	Deceleration	-24	21
2024-07-19	3.35	3.40	-0.89	1587099	Deceleration	-1	6
2024-07-12	3.75	3.37	6.25	978401	Deceleration	26	10
2024-07-05	3.29	3.34	-7.14	692586	Deceleration	9	6
2024-06-28	3.38	3.30	-1.56	1206914	Deceleration	24	11
2024-06-21	3.60	3.26	4.14	1242926	Deceleration	32	18
2024-06-14	3.63	3.20	4.77	1351190	Deceleration	33	18
2024-06-07	3.56	3.15	5.72	1496373	Deceleration	31	15
2024-05-31	3.81	3.10	15.33	2360619	Deceleration	36	19
2024-05-24	3.46	3.05	2.70	1773781	Deceleration	26	13
2024-05-17	3.28	3.00	-2.09	1391072	Deceleration	14	8
2024-05-10	3.61	2.97	9.31	3421698	Deceleration	15	14
2024-05-03	3.66	2.92	12.17	15536571	Deceleration	21	20
2024-04-26	2.97	2.88	-8.17	2059916	Deceleration	14	25
2024-04-19	2.77	2.86	-11.31	4351386	Deceleration	16	20
2024-04-12	3.43	2.85	3.07	6394089	Upward Expansion	41	27
2024-04-05	3.11	2.81	-7.77	11102539	Upward Expansion	57	46
2024-03-29	4.59	2.79	33.32	2518897	Upward Expansion	67	84
2024-03-22	4.95	2.72	42.26	4756635	Upward Expansion	77	91
2024-03-15	4.87	2.64	43.77	5087724	Upward Expansion	83	93
2024-03-08	4.58	2.55	33.25	4768239	Upward Expansion	85	89
2024-03-01	4.27	2.48	21.59	15504232	Upward Expansion	84	80
2024-02-23	3.86	2.44	10.79	103686807	Upward Expansion	83	62
2024-02-16	2.40	2.41	-31.23	610650	Balance	9	8
2024-02-09	2.52	2.43	-30.63	499360	Balance	25	21
2024-02-02	2.52	2.45	-31.57	390513	Rotation Up	27	25
2024-01-26	2.58	2.46	-31.58	743373	Rotation Up	19	28
2024-01-19	2.65	2.49	-31.20	582945	Rotation Up	27	36
2024-01-12	2.63	2.51	-31.68	645213	Balance	27	28
2024-01-05	2.50	2.54	-34.64	483290	Balance	-1	22
2023-12-29	2.40	2.58	-40.61	931914	Balance	-8	23
2023-12-22	2.48	2.62	-39.68	706395	Downward Expansion	-16	22
2023-12-15	2.70	2.66	-35.01	1253424	Downward Expansion	-11	13
2023-12-08	2.33	2.68	-43.17	1006061	Downward Expansion	-59	45
2023-12-01	2.02	2.70	-51.50	1139670	Downward Expansion	-66	70
2023-11-24	1.99	2.73	-53.29	256940	Downward Expansion	-71	70
2023-11-17	2.04	2.76	-52.82	548260	Downward Expansion	-70	73
2023-11-10	1.98	2.79	-54.34	875448	Downward Expansion	-77	73
2023-11-03	2.25	2.84	-47.77	1438780	Downward Expansion	-61	54
2023-10-27	2.07	2.90	-49.87	1209254	Downward Expansion	-78	66
2023-10-20	2.24	2.96	-48.05	872292	Downward Expansion	-71	53

Price vs TrendBelow-11.0%

Trend directionRising+24.3%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+257.4%

Fair Value directionMoving away-59.9%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+18.9%

Relative strength directionWeakening-25.8%

Price momentumPositive+6.7%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.66×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-15 / ±100

+2.5 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

15 /100

-4.0 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

AXTI Directional State ↗ AXTI Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance67

Rotation Up34

Upward Expansion32

Deceleration40

Rotation Down25

Downward Expansion45

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 12%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 35%Deceleration 13%Rotation Down 2%Downward Expansion 33%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-08-14	2026-10-09	Developing	-16.1%
Rotation Down	2026-07-24	2026-08-07	New	+87.6%
Deceleration	2026-06-26	2026-07-17	New	-34.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-08	2026-06-19	Extended	+3851.9%
Rotation Up	2025-06-27	2025-08-01	Developing	-5.4%
Downward Expansion	2025-02-28	2025-06-20	Established	+15.0%
Balance	2025-01-24	2025-02-21	Developing	-31.3%
Downward Expansion	2024-08-09	2025-01-17	Established	-7.0%
Deceleration	2024-04-19	2024-08-02	Established	-3.2%
Upward Expansion	2024-02-23	2024-04-12	Developing	-11.1%
Balance	2024-02-09	2024-02-16	New	-4.8%
Rotation Up	2024-01-19	2024-02-02	New	-4.9%
Balance	2023-12-29	2024-01-12	New	+9.6%
Downward Expansion	2023-03-10	2023-12-22	Extended	-34.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing14

Stage 2 · Advancing44

Stage 3 · Distribution58

Stage 4 · Declining26

Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3A · Churning. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 6/100
Current Relative Strength: 18.93
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +6.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -16.3%
Technology regime cohort: 47th percentile95 in cohort

Test AXTI trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.78×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.66×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+62.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore AXTI Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 75.16rising

Slow Activity USD 74.54rising

Trend Reference USD 76.94-11.0% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 19.16+257.4% close margin

Structural low USD 36.73shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +27.3%

Annualized volatility +127.3%

From structural high -52.2%

From structural low +1473.8%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs QQQ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	10	-0.1%-31.3% to +81.7%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-2.6%	+30.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	6	-24.1%-38.3% to +91.2%	+16.7%	+16.7%	-24.0%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	-18.5%-49.3% to +40.8%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-8.4%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-23.5%-54.6% to +656.5%	+25.0%	+25.0%	-28.8%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

AXTI Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map