Weekly structural research · VIE · Technology

MSFT Stage Analysis

Microsoft Corporation

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close EUR 476.90Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^ATX

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Established expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: wide and contracting.

Direction 84−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 72/100directional strength

Maturity 44/100lifecycle context

Confidence 79/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Widecontracting separation

Price acceptance +50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +24.3%EUR 383.61 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	476.90	376.89	9.12	1792	Upward Expansion	84	72
2026-10-02	457.70	372.52	1.38	1763	Upward Expansion	79	69
2026-09-25	451.85	369.07	-3.83	1420	Upward Expansion	78	69
2026-09-18	430.40	365.10	-7.16	2202	Upward Expansion	63	65
2026-09-11	428.15	361.99	-9.58	828	Upward Expansion	65	82
2026-09-04	430.65	358.88	-9.48	95	Upward Expansion	67	88
2026-08-28	444.05	355.69	-6.42	115	Upward Expansion	84	94
2026-08-21	414.30	352.92	-11.33	207	Upward Expansion	66	88
2026-08-14	428.86	352.26	-10.27	124	Upward Expansion	88	95
2026-08-07	433.65	351.14	-8.85	129	Rotation Up	90	87
2026-07-31	397.18	350.26	-14.66	746	Rotation Up	38	30
2026-07-24	337.76	350.38	-28.15	424	Downward Expansion	-48	27
2026-07-17	341.40	352.85	-27.16	283	Downward Expansion	-53	47
2026-07-10	335.60	355.20	-30.50	383	Downward Expansion	-54	51
2026-07-03	338.65	357.51	-31.50	499	Balance	-53	42
2026-06-26	325.50	359.88	-33.27	879	Balance	-53	39
2026-06-19	330.30	363.08	-34.28	47	Balance	-44	21
2026-06-12	335.45	365.64	-31.16	450	Balance	-22	16
2026-06-05	365.55	368.95	-23.58	67	Balance	1	24
2026-05-29	380.60	370.90	-21.88	862	Balance	15	25
2026-05-22	361.40	373.08	-24.29	1288	Balance	-5	14
2026-05-15	363.19	375.94	-22.87	1209	Downward Expansion	-6	17
2026-05-08	353.11	378.29	-25.81	2864	Downward Expansion	-28	29
2026-05-01	342.94	381.20	-27.34	2005	Downward Expansion	-37	25
2026-04-24	358.35	384.41	-24.13	678	Downward Expansion	-44	29
2026-04-17	363.64	386.81	-26.00	2316	Downward Expansion	-61	49
2026-04-10	315.86	389.11	-34.46	1606	Downward Expansion	-71	67
2026-04-03	320.15	393.01	-29.81	1599	Downward Expansion	-72	66
2026-03-27	311.67	396.34	-29.72	1335	Downward Expansion	-84	68
2026-03-20	332.02	400.32	-24.46	807	Downward Expansion	-75	65
2026-03-13	345.68	403.61	-22.70	1559	Downward Expansion	-65	64
2026-03-06	354.21	406.83	-23.13	2202	Downward Expansion	-68	80
2026-02-27	332.82	409.78	-31.81	1363	Downward Expansion	-75	91
2026-02-20	337.01	413.65	-32.68	1082	Downward Expansion	-78	92
2026-02-13	335.00	416.88	-31.47	1775	Downward Expansion	-86	94
2026-02-06	334.85	420.17	-32.53	2853	Downward Expansion	-93	94
2026-01-30	360.92	423.21	-27.16	2779	Downward Expansion	-86	78
2026-01-23	394.59	425.11	-19.79	1251	Downward Expansion	-65	58
2026-01-16	395.09	426.00	-19.62	1353	Downward Expansion	-68	52
2026-01-09	407.42	426.59	-16.73	757	Downward Expansion	-56	40
2026-01-02	400.81	426.61	-17.90	209	Downward Expansion	-66	55
2025-12-26	411.60	426.90	-14.66	592	Rotation Down	-58	54
2025-12-19	412.15	426.54	-14.93	652	Rotation Down	-31	49
2025-12-12	404.84	425.93	-14.95	843	Rotation Down	-43	58
2025-12-05	409.81	425.77	-14.18	720	Balance	-28	42
2025-11-28	421.50	424.90	-11.10	954	Balance	-14	23
2025-11-21	406.93	423.50	-10.73	1019	Balance	-11	16
2025-11-14	434.69	421.16	-6.39	472	Upward Expansion	36	21
2025-11-07	424.22	417.43	-7.11	863	Upward Expansion	38	24
2025-10-31	446.01	414.42	-3.82	1609	Upward Expansion	62	45
2025-10-24	447.25	410.58	-0.90	969	Deceleration	64	42
2025-10-17	433.65	407.26	-2.33	560	Deceleration	50	33
2025-10-10	440.40	404.56	-2.88	630	Deceleration	58	39
2025-10-03	439.11	401.58	-5.16	493	Deceleration	60	38
2025-09-26	430.57	398.72	-5.17	596	Deceleration	37	24
2025-09-19	432.46	396.72	-4.44	802	Deceleration	39	27
2025-09-12	432.86	395.35	-4.99	559	Deceleration	41	28
2025-09-05	420.15	393.70	-7.00	505	Upward Expansion	46	37
2025-08-29	431.12	392.79	-5.08	226	Upward Expansion	62	54
2025-08-22	430.47	391.58	-8.73	500	Upward Expansion	66	63
2025-08-15	442.44	391.19	-7.51	369	Upward Expansion	69	80
2025-08-08	442.73	390.16	-5.21	720	Upward Expansion	73	84
2025-08-01	448.88	388.81	1.62	1927	Upward Expansion	87	93
2025-07-25	433.87	387.30	-4.37	1054	Upward Expansion	76	88
2025-07-18	433.77	386.39	-2.65	841	Upward Expansion	81	89
2025-07-11	425.94	385.83	-4.56	524	Rotation Up	77	84
2025-07-04	417.96	385.65	-4.52	318	Rotation Up	43	62
2025-06-27	421.18	385.55	-4.88	1434	Rotation Up	49	63
2025-06-20	412.86	384.70	-5.31	1623	Rotation Up	36	60
2025-06-13	408.11	383.99	-7.18	1209	Rotation Up	34	63
2025-06-06	409.39	383.37	-9.22	2902	Rotation Up	40	64
2025-05-30	400.87	382.69	-10.90	1604	Rotation Up	33	47
2025-05-23	393.94	381.86	-11.73	1982	Downward Expansion	28	40
2025-05-16	400.08	381.80	-11.68	1507	Downward Expansion	4	25
2025-05-09	383.48	381.12	-13.03	1342	Downward Expansion	-21	18
2025-05-02	379.63	380.79	-10.14	1531	Downward Expansion	-38	35
2025-04-25	336.86	380.59	-19.28	1345	Downward Expansion	-66	60
2025-04-18	322.68	382.00	-20.15	757	Downward Expansion	-79	72
2025-04-11	333.80	384.06	-13.31	4910	Downward Expansion	-75	76
2025-04-04	330.83	385.63	-15.46	1685	Downward Expansion	-85	90
2025-03-28	347.79	386.52	-20.21	585	Rotation Down	-75	88
2025-03-21	352.58	387.24	-21.06	969	Rotation Down	-49	78
2025-03-14	350.90	387.68	-22.53	1553	Rotation Down	-57	77
2025-03-07	353.38	388.46	-22.25	1698	Rotation Down	-52	69
2025-02-28	370.73	388.81	-16.02	1131	Deceleration	-39	44
2025-02-21	391.24	388.60	-9.55	620	Deceleration	4	21
2025-02-14	383.26	388.36	-12.36	635	Deceleration	-5	14
2025-02-07	392.83	388.74	-5.69	1137	Deceleration	27	16
2025-01-31	394.95	389.30	-5.02	3095	Upward Expansion	37	24
2025-01-24	418.73	390.21	1.11	467	Upward Expansion	66	40
2025-01-17	411.48	390.11	1.12	1103	Upward Expansion	49	31
2025-01-10	402.30	390.12	2.40	731	Upward Expansion	55	37
2025-01-03	403.63	390.26	2.91	366	Upward Expansion	61	59
2024-12-27	406.54	389.69	4.50	598	Upward Expansion	65	75
2024-12-20	416.90	388.43	8.68	2023	Upward Expansion	73	80
2024-12-13	420.65	387.48	8.26	568	Rotation Up	84	82
2024-12-06	414.88	386.10	9.01	398	Rotation Up	53	61
2024-11-29	395.59	384.84	5.51	339	Balance	26	42
2024-11-22	391.74	383.96	4.88	115	Balance	19	32
2024-11-15	389.44	383.43	3.73	369	Balance	16	25
2024-11-08	389.04	382.74	3.93	303	Balance	13	15
2024-11-01	376.05	382.80	1.16	657	Balance	-22	12
2024-10-25	392.14	383.08	4.00	313	Balance	-11	9
2024-10-18	379.59	382.71	-0.43	371	Balance	-32	14
2024-10-11	373.54	382.98	-1.58	742	Balance	-34	18
2024-10-04	373.59	382.95	-1.30	245	Balance	-31	20
2024-09-27	379.10	382.70	-0.76	240	Balance	-34	17
2024-09-20	384.61	382.51	1.79	533	Rotation Down	-8	11
2024-09-13	380.87	382.08	1.41	403	Rotation Down	-28	26
2024-09-06	357.59	381.71	-4.04	325	Rotation Down	-42	47
2024-08-30	369.40	382.50	-4.77	218	Rotation Down	-23	44
2024-08-23	365.81	382.53	-4.58	241	Deceleration	-27	41
2024-08-16	374.18	382.50	-0.61	226	Deceleration	-20	34
2024-08-09	363.90	381.89	-1.33	1749	Deceleration	-22	33
2024-08-02	364.54	381.28	0.02	663	Deceleration	-2	19
2024-07-26	383.85	380.16	1.39	460	Upward Expansion	34	26
2024-07-19	394.80	378.46	4.51	591	Upward Expansion	62	51
2024-07-12	409.54	376.40	7.66	221	Upward Expansion	66	81
2024-07-05	422.37	373.86	11.27	313	Upward Expansion	79	89
2024-06-28	415.63	371.09	12.87	207	Upward Expansion	80	86
2024-06-21	411.90	368.40	12.81	225	Upward Expansion	82	78
2024-06-14	406.25	365.88	13.41	389	Deceleration	78	61
2024-06-07	386.75	363.46	4.66	152	Deceleration	57	33
2024-05-31	368.52	361.76	-0.84	29	Deceleration	31	20
2024-05-24	388.51	360.18	2.96	348	Deceleration	63	35
2024-05-17	379.38	357.54	0.56	338	Deceleration	39	21
2024-05-10	376.97	354.92	1.86	219	Deceleration	34	21
2024-05-03	369.27	352.55	2.75	358	Upward Expansion	40	24
2024-04-26	375.64	350.19	6.15	435	Upward Expansion	47	35
2024-04-19	368.93	347.44	5.05	417	Upward Expansion	61	48
2024-04-12	390.65	344.93	11.26	205	Upward Expansion	75	68
2024-04-05	384.47	342.05	9.82	379	Upward Expansion	70	59
2024-03-29	381.28	339.42	10.48	143	Upward Expansion	67	57
2024-03-22	387.46	336.62	14.08	231	Upward Expansion	80	62
2024-03-15	372.85	333.38	13.27	313	Upward Expansion	65	56
2024-03-08	365.93	330.38	12.84	451	Upward Expansion	63	60
2024-03-01	373.58	327.66	16.16	287	Upward Expansion	67	67
2024-02-23	371.72	325.00	16.42	536	Upward Expansion	67	83
2024-02-16	369.66	322.55	16.06	642	Upward Expansion	68	88
2024-02-09	381.36	320.37	22.49	337	Upward Expansion	91	96
2024-02-02	370.16	317.76	17.14	798	Upward Expansion	87	94
2024-01-26	365.07	315.48	15.95	462	Upward Expansion	87	92
2024-01-19	355.77	313.46	17.75	651	Upward Expansion	82	63
2024-01-12	345.44	311.61	13.52	304	Upward Expansion	75	53
2024-01-05	331.11	310.37	8.68	307	Upward Expansion	48	42
2023-12-29	332.67	309.18	9.86	363	Upward Expansion	61	52
2023-12-22	333.01	308.22	11.53	892	Upward Expansion	64	58
2023-12-15	333.50	307.18	13.61	520	Upward Expansion	66	65
2023-12-08	339.18	305.59	17.94	372	Upward Expansion	75	88
2023-12-01	334.87	303.46	17.41	357	Upward Expansion	71	89
2023-11-24	336.29	301.38	20.96	507	Upward Expansion	80	92
2023-11-17	333.90	299.14	20.23	467	Upward Expansion	84	91
2023-11-10	335.75	296.42	24.47	155	Upward Expansion	92	88
2023-11-03	321.10	293.68	20.62	204	Upward Expansion	82	74
2023-10-27	309.24	291.43	23.43	941	Upward Expansion	67	49
2023-10-20	300.74	289.60	20.21	207	Upward Expansion	51	28

Price vs TrendAbove+26.5%

Trend directionRising+7.6%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+24.3%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+34.4%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+9.1%

Relative strength directionImproving+39.6%

Price momentumPositive+51.0%

Volume balanceDemand-led5.04×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

84 / ±100

+18.7 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

72 /100

-9.3 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

MSFT Directional State ↗ MSFT Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance11

Rotation Up71

Upward Expansion83

Deceleration65

Rotation Down16

Downward Expansion12

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 13%Rotation Up 7%Upward Expansion 40%Deceleration 14%Rotation Down 7%Downward Expansion 20%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-08-14	2026-10-09	Developing	+11.2%
Rotation Up	2026-07-31	2026-08-07	New	+9.2%
Downward Expansion	2026-07-10	2026-07-24	New	+0.6%
Balance	2026-05-22	2026-07-03	Developing	-6.3%
Downward Expansion	2026-01-02	2026-05-15	Established	-9.4%
Rotation Down	2025-12-12	2025-12-26	New	+1.7%
Balance	2025-11-21	2025-12-05	New	+0.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-31	2025-11-14	New	-2.5%
Deceleration	2025-09-12	2025-10-24	Developing	+3.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-18	2025-09-05	Developing	-3.1%
Rotation Up	2025-05-30	2025-07-11	Developing	+6.3%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-04	2025-05-23	Developing	+19.1%
Rotation Down	2025-03-07	2025-03-28	New	-1.6%
Deceleration	2025-02-07	2025-02-28	New	-5.6%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing20

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution51

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2C · Late advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^ATX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 93/100
Current Relative Strength: 9.12
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +51.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +38.4%
Technology regime cohort: 44th percentile45 in cohort

Test MSFT trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume2.69×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume5.04×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution5 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore MSFT Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 457.32rising

Slow Activity EUR 399.58rising

Trend Reference EUR 376.89+26.5% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 383.61+24.3% close margin

Structural low EUR 312.20shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +4.5%

Annualized volatility +39.2%

From structural high -0.0%

From structural low +54.2%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^ATX	Regime survived	Read
Near term	32	-0.1%-9.8% to +15.0%	+46.9%	+46.9%	-1.5%	+75.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	13	+0.3%-19.1% to +18.9%	+53.8%	+53.8%	+0.4%	+53.8%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	8	-1.9%-8.9% to +28.8%	+37.5%	+37.5%	-0.6%	+37.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+15.1%-1.1% to +30.9%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+11.8%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

MSFT Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map