Weekly structural research · GER · Consumer Defensive

PEP Stage Analysis

PepsiCo, Inc.

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close EUR 111.34Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^GDAXI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -83−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 89/100directional strength

Maturity 32/100lifecycle context

Confidence 82/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -15.0%EUR 130.95 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	111.34	124.07	-13.15	26929	Downward Expansion	-83	89
2026-09-25	112.24	124.83	-13.19	34073	Downward Expansion	-85	77
2026-09-18	113.62	125.74	-11.92	33925	Downward Expansion	-85	65
2026-09-11	117.88	126.49	-9.70	20238	Downward Expansion	-72	54
2026-09-04	119.10	127.16	-10.56	23362	Downward Expansion	-65	51
2026-08-28	119.54	127.83	-12.19	993	Downward Expansion	-65	55
2026-08-21	120.52	127.96	-10.19	2295	Downward Expansion	-62	57
2026-08-14	120.29	127.92	-11.53	2740	Downward Expansion	-65	71
2026-08-07	118.29	128.02	-12.75	4167	Downward Expansion	-74	79
2026-07-31	119.95	128.00	-9.28	6482	Downward Expansion	-68	77
2026-07-24	119.62	127.97	-7.71	844	Downward Expansion	-71	70
2026-07-17	121.48	127.99	-5.28	11155	Downward Expansion	-65	57
2026-07-10	119.56	128.09	-7.65	8140	Rotation Down	-77	57
2026-07-03	125.90	128.28	-5.35	1222	Rotation Down	-29	30
2026-06-26	124.34	128.16	-2.24	1586	Rotation Down	-33	49
2026-06-19	124.24	128.13	-3.33	368	Rotation Down	-37	60
2026-06-12	123.62	128.13	-2.31	5581	Rotation Down	-29	56
2026-06-05	123.94	128.02	-2.40	4176	Rotation Down	-27	54
2026-05-29	121.82	127.88	-5.21	19350	Deceleration	-35	50
2026-05-22	127.15	127.92	-0.09	7710	Deceleration	1	15
2026-05-15	126.86	127.89	3.80	12096	Deceleration	1	8
2026-05-08	130.47	127.90	5.30	12045	Deceleration	21	11
2026-05-01	132.86	127.69	7.71	6272	Deceleration	34	16
2026-04-24	131.22	127.18	7.36	7938	Deceleration	31	16
2026-04-17	131.95	126.67	5.65	16581	Deceleration	34	18
2026-04-10	132.43	126.13	9.93	8331	Deceleration	35	21
2026-04-03	132.90	125.65	13.24	15227	Deceleration	39	23
2026-03-27	131.04	125.27	15.78	12935	Upward Expansion	43	28
2026-03-20	129.84	124.94	14.33	7150	Upward Expansion	59	44
2026-03-13	138.20	124.68	16.25	9594	Upward Expansion	70	62
2026-03-06	134.01	124.15	12.16	15310	Upward Expansion	66	80
2026-02-27	139.53	123.63	8.87	9748	Upward Expansion	76	90
2026-02-20	136.19	122.83	6.13	10401	Upward Expansion	74	86
2026-02-13	137.83	122.18	8.61	16877	Upward Expansion	83	85
2026-02-06	139.22	121.53	10.49	52160	Upward Expansion	82	71
2026-01-30	123.65	120.54	-1.27	23174	Balance	23	11
2026-01-23	119.31	120.11	-6.55	25167	Balance	-15	18
2026-01-16	123.26	119.68	-5.47	25048	Balance	19	19
2026-01-09	117.70	119.16	-10.12	18904	Balance	-5	16
2026-01-02	119.09	118.87	-6.99	10745	Upward Expansion	18	9
2025-12-26	120.09	118.54	-6.15	6732	Upward Expansion	41	22
2025-12-19	124.51	118.19	-3.17	5348	Upward Expansion	56	40
2025-12-12	125.23	117.61	-2.82	9632	Deceleration	61	40
2025-12-05	122.34	117.14	-5.05	23168	Deceleration	39	24
2025-11-28	123.49	116.74	-4.01	9859	Deceleration	42	22
2025-11-21	124.05	116.33	-1.21	8569	Upward Expansion	47	24
2025-11-14	120.40	115.87	-7.94	8180	Upward Expansion	50	30
2025-11-07	119.68	115.81	-8.01	14474	Upward Expansion	56	56
2025-10-31	122.97	115.77	-7.77	10281	Upward Expansion	60	70
2025-10-24	126.51	115.96	-6.94	9336	Upward Expansion	69	72
2025-10-17	126.88	116.11	-5.84	21837	Deceleration	72	59
2025-10-10	124.40	116.14	-9.94	50874	Deceleration	53	24
2025-10-03	117.61	116.27	-16.03	20030	Deceleration	2	12
2025-09-26	115.80	116.89	-15.83	18126	Rotation Up	6	10
2025-09-19	115.80	117.61	-16.15	202184	Rotation Up	13	14
2025-09-12	118.12	118.27	-15.44	11899	Rotation Up	31	30
2025-09-05	121.35	118.63	-13.58	44208	Rotation Up	25	46
2025-08-29	121.13	118.93	-15.63	18888	Rotation Up	29	58
2025-08-22	121.97	119.43	-17.31	16413	Rotation Up	36	56
2025-08-15	122.41	119.79	-17.70	19971	Rotation Up	22	37
2025-08-08	118.43	120.18	-20.44	14388	Downward Expansion	8	28
2025-08-01	115.49	120.56	-20.77	27526	Downward Expansion	-10	23
2025-07-25	116.54	121.28	-23.46	16060	Downward Expansion	-24	26
2025-07-18	118.40	121.96	-23.20	71092	Downward Expansion	-29	23
2025-07-11	109.54	122.58	-29.48	27167	Downward Expansion	-52	48
2025-07-04	110.79	123.66	-27.93	25895	Downward Expansion	-62	52
2025-06-27	106.50	124.67	-32.00	17623	Downward Expansion	-71	60
2025-06-20	107.71	125.89	-29.91	15168	Downward Expansion	-68	60
2025-06-13	108.93	127.08	-30.29	30261	Downward Expansion	-66	64
2025-06-06	109.06	128.09	-33.09	33136	Downward Expansion	-66	62
2025-05-30	109.54	129.22	-32.59	29502	Downward Expansion	-66	68
2025-05-23	107.20	130.29	-33.60	40819	Downward Expansion	-77	85
2025-05-16	111.22	131.66	-32.18	42689	Downward Expansion	-69	84
2025-05-09	110.18	132.93	-32.70	24707	Downward Expansion	-75	89
2025-05-02	111.44	134.17	-31.35	25531	Downward Expansion	-77	87
2025-04-25	110.14	135.18	-30.23	36950	Downward Expansion	-86	86
2025-04-18	118.43	136.25	-22.02	15842	Downward Expansion	-77	75
2025-04-11	118.58	137.05	-19.32	28475	Downward Expansion	-80	72
2025-04-04	128.84	138.04	-13.99	15648	Downward Expansion	-58	49
2025-03-28	130.86	138.66	-20.05	17392	Downward Expansion	-52	36
2025-03-21	127.67	139.06	-23.91	23364	Downward Expansion	-66	37
2025-03-14	128.57	139.58	-24.16	25808	Downward Expansion	-54	26
2025-03-07	136.07	140.09	-20.25	27638	Downward Expansion	-37	20
2025-02-28	137.50	140.35	-18.15	23031	Downward Expansion	-44	30
2025-02-21	135.46	140.66	-18.76	35759	Downward Expansion	-58	42
2025-02-14	128.84	141.00	-23.91	25374	Downward Expansion	-75	55
2025-02-07	130.50	141.46	-20.85	37899	Downward Expansion	-72	50
2025-01-31	136.00	141.81	-17.80	10851	Downward Expansion	-63	62
2025-01-24	132.77	141.90	-18.94	15724	Downward Expansion	-68	73
2025-01-17	134.13	142.20	-16.60	10456	Downward Expansion	-64	72
2025-01-10	129.83	142.53	-16.92	14517	Downward Expansion	-85	81
2025-01-03	137.03	142.90	-11.34	7368	Downward Expansion	-63	61
2024-12-27	137.22	143.21	-11.91	4039	Downward Expansion	-64	57
2024-12-20	136.94	143.39	-11.95	27373	Balance	-66	46
2024-12-13	141.95	143.83	-11.35	9650	Balance	-47	25
2024-12-06	140.94	144.21	-12.19	11771	Balance	-55	43
2024-11-29	143.20	144.56	-7.65	5096	Balance	-38	31
2024-11-22	143.28	144.74	-6.42	9969	Balance	-38	28
2024-11-15	139.42	144.98	-8.69	12349	Balance	-58	35
2024-11-08	142.79	145.24	-6.81	8716	Balance	-25	12
2024-11-01	141.81	145.27	-8.02	6266	Balance	2	10
2024-10-25	148.17	145.30	-5.36	1993	Balance	24	33
2024-10-18	149.50	145.29	-5.81	6239	Balance	20	16
2024-10-11	147.09	145.15	-6.34	11168	Balance	-18	12
2024-10-04	141.85	144.84	-8.77	6704	Balance	-39	24
2024-09-27	142.29	144.65	-10.44	4804	Balance	-36	16
2024-09-20	142.40	144.52	-7.20	3461	Balance	3	7
2024-09-13	148.37	144.50	-3.63	9629	Balance	43	27
2024-09-06	147.33	144.20	-2.59	3646	Balance	39	15
2024-08-30	142.83	144.00	-8.87	4933	Balance	-15	8
2024-08-23	143.31	144.00	-7.58	6076	Balance	-0	4
2024-08-16	143.91	143.86	-5.99	3918	Balance	3	9
2024-08-09	143.97	143.66	-3.12	13516	Balance	10	11
2024-08-02	146.67	143.43	-1.25	8098	Balance	15	11
2024-07-26	145.64	143.20	-6.22	3661	Rotation Down	3	9
2024-07-19	142.74	142.96	-7.15	15480	Rotation Down	-17	25
2024-07-12	140.92	142.79	-11.46	24609	Rotation Down	-19	34
2024-07-05	138.82	142.74	-11.83	12789	Upward Expansion	-31	33
2024-06-28	141.74	142.76	-9.21	7778	Upward Expansion	-0	17
2024-06-21	143.89	142.69	-7.79	7615	Upward Expansion	19	24
2024-06-14	141.01	142.52	-9.18	13260	Upward Expansion	11	17
2024-06-07	146.26	142.39	-8.92	10004	Upward Expansion	39	24
2024-05-31	142.77	142.18	-11.11	5129	Upward Expansion	39	32
2024-05-24	150.09	142.10	-7.89	6475	Upward Expansion	64	68
2024-05-17	153.25	141.61	-6.32	5130	Upward Expansion	76	79
2024-05-10	151.61	141.06	-7.94	2244	Upward Expansion	74	75
2024-05-03	148.33	140.52	-6.46	4034	Upward Expansion	63	62
2024-04-26	150.60	140.05	-6.17	13945	Upward Expansion	74	64
2024-04-19	147.20	139.81	-6.36	6287	Upward Expansion	66	67
2024-04-12	143.79	139.84	-9.73	5251	Upward Expansion	53	60
2024-04-05	142.51	140.09	-11.98	5296	Balance	50	55
2024-03-29	148.09	140.24	-10.43	7161	Balance	43	47
2024-03-22	145.17	140.18	-11.09	6888	Balance	31	14
2024-03-15	137.76	140.26	-14.70	8098	Balance	-45	25
2024-03-08	136.39	140.55	-15.35	9615	Balance	-42	21
2024-03-01	138.19	140.98	-14.14	12847	Balance	-20	10
2024-02-23	141.72	141.39	-10.62	9471	Balance	-3	13
2024-02-16	139.50	141.80	-10.74	11618	Balance	-12	14
2024-02-09	141.22	142.22	-8.85	20363	Balance	-9	11
2024-02-02	142.92	142.47	-7.90	8394	Balance	-4	4
2024-01-26	139.10	142.67	-10.66	6717	Downward Expansion	-48	26
2024-01-19	137.84	143.05	-9.45	11884	Downward Expansion	-52	30
2024-01-12	137.19	143.56	-10.82	13345	Downward Expansion	-56	32
2024-01-05	139.72	144.07	-8.80	13765	Downward Expansion	-46	26
2023-12-29	138.52	144.42	-10.76	3781	Downward Expansion	-48	27
2023-12-22	137.73	144.89	-11.48	10382	Downward Expansion	-43	25
2023-12-15	139.28	145.35	-11.18	15172	Downward Expansion	-37	23
2023-12-08	139.36	145.93	-11.60	8290	Downward Expansion	-40	28
2023-12-01	139.63	146.57	-9.90	15490	Downward Expansion	-42	30
2023-11-24	138.97	147.10	-8.66	11009	Downward Expansion	-45	32
2023-11-17	137.09	147.54	-9.63	13446	Downward Expansion	-64	44
2023-11-10	139.74	147.94	-4.11	13074	Downward Expansion	-60	47
2023-11-03	140.37	148.19	-3.66	11431	Downward Expansion	-65	70
2023-10-27	135.59	148.47	-4.22	12459	Downward Expansion	-71	85
2023-10-20	136.68	148.87	-4.70	16179	Downward Expansion	-70	84
2023-10-13	135.48	149.20	-8.45	23458	Downward Expansion	-79	82

Price vs TrendBelow-10.3%

Trend directionFalling-3.0%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-15.0%

Fair Value directionMoving away-9.3%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-13.1%

Relative strength directionWeakening-7.8%

Price momentumNegative-16.2%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.15×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-83 / ±100

-17.5 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

89 /100

+37.8 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

PEP Directional State ↗ PEP Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance0

Rotation Up10

Upward Expansion20

Deceleration38

Rotation Down85

Downward Expansion98

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 22%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 19%Deceleration 10%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 39%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-07-17	2026-10-02	Developing	-8.3%
Rotation Down	2026-06-05	2026-07-10	Developing	-3.5%
Deceleration	2026-04-03	2026-05-29	Developing	-8.3%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-06	2026-03-27	Developing	-5.9%
Balance	2026-01-09	2026-01-30	New	+5.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-12-19	2026-01-02	New	-4.4%
Deceleration	2025-11-28	2025-12-12	New	+1.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-24	2025-11-21	Developing	-1.9%
Deceleration	2025-10-03	2025-10-17	New	+7.9%
Rotation Up	2025-08-15	2025-09-26	Developing	-5.4%
Downward Expansion	2024-12-27	2025-08-08	Extended	-13.7%
Balance	2024-08-02	2024-12-20	Established	-6.6%
Rotation Down	2024-07-12	2024-07-26	New	+3.4%
Upward Expansion	2024-04-12	2024-07-05	Established	-3.5%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing55

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution29

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^GDAXI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 97/100
Current Relative Strength: -13.15
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -16.2%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -25.1%
Consumer Defensive regime cohort: 83th percentile12 in cohort

Test PEP trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume2.50×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.15×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 5

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore PEP Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 113.43falling

Slow Activity EUR 120.59falling

Trend Reference EUR 124.07-10.3% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 130.95-15.0% close margin

Structural low EUR 111.18shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +3.0%

Annualized volatility +12.5%

From structural high -21.3%

From structural low +0.1%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^GDAXI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	18	-0.1%-7.2% to +8.1%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-0.9%	+83.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	6	+3.0%-18.6% to +14.0%	+66.7%	+33.3%	-6.2%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	+8.3%-22.4% to +12.8%	+75.0%	+25.0%	-2.9%	+25.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	-3.9%-12.5% to +4.7%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-19.4%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

PEP Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map