Weekly structural research · NYSE · Energy

NOG Stage Analysis

Northern Oil & Gas Inc

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 24.76Tenure NewBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 12−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 13/100directional strength

Maturity 49/100lifecycle context

Confidence 73/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -13.5%USD 28.64 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	24.76	23.56	-3.79	8902180	Deceleration	12	13
2026-10-02	23.83	23.63	-6.38	12580389	Rotation Up	12	12
2026-09-25	22.84	23.79	-10.76	9853999	Rotation Up	7	16
2026-09-18	24.56	23.93	-3.38	11361932	Rotation Up	26	37
2026-09-11	26.06	24.04	2.20	7892359	Rotation Up	33	65
2026-09-04	25.42	24.02	-1.27	9843986	Rotation Up	28	56
2026-08-28	25.23	24.02	-2.09	9984331	Rotation Up	29	45
2026-08-21	27.34	24.00	6.23	12168946	Downward Expansion	45	45
2026-08-14	24.50	23.86	-6.19	13302926	Downward Expansion	-3	20
2026-08-07	21.60	23.77	-17.39	11807249	Downward Expansion	-35	30
2026-07-31	21.15	23.77	-16.69	11657162	Downward Expansion	-43	28
2026-07-24	21.18	23.79	-16.15	14248648	Downward Expansion	-50	42
2026-07-17	21.19	23.77	-17.26	15742784	Downward Expansion	-64	62
2026-07-10	18.52	23.75	-29.32	19294755	Downward Expansion	-69	82
2026-07-03	17.95	23.86	-31.42	17810668	Downward Expansion	-77	86
2026-06-26	18.70	24.07	-27.88	20370695	Rotation Down	-75	83
2026-06-19	18.96	24.16	-29.35	17648847	Rotation Down	-51	72
2026-06-12	20.28	24.22	-24.72	11337595	Rotation Down	-46	66
2026-06-05	20.46	24.26	-24.54	13249460	Rotation Down	-38	60
2026-05-29	21.23	24.28	-24.35	11547795	Rotation Down	-37	54
2026-05-22	23.16	24.28	-16.90	12080172	Deceleration	-25	31
2026-05-15	23.83	24.20	-14.34	16587708	Deceleration	-1	17
2026-05-08	22.82	24.10	-18.32	11377640	Deceleration	-8	19
2026-05-01	25.87	24.05	-5.89	14217746	Deceleration	27	22
2026-04-24	26.71	23.99	-2.22	10181704	Deceleration	33	21
2026-04-17	24.55	23.98	-9.83	12705241	Upward Expansion	34	24
2026-04-10	26.94	23.95	2.95	9483595	Upward Expansion	58	45
2026-04-03	28.29	23.86	12.00	10793836	Upward Expansion	62	51
2026-03-27	30.36	23.70	24.29	13936419	Upward Expansion	80	72
2026-03-20	28.41	23.52	13.52	17670742	Upward Expansion	71	69
2026-03-13	27.10	23.36	6.03	21130142	Upward Expansion	66	77
2026-03-06	28.43	23.23	9.14	17449528	Upward Expansion	79	85
2026-02-27	27.18	23.05	2.16	9653658	Upward Expansion	73	79
2026-02-20	27.73	22.94	3.21	8184246	Rotation Up	83	82
2026-02-13	25.58	22.92	-4.26	7850498	Rotation Up	35	58
2026-02-06	25.26	22.92	-7.39	10227033	Rotation Up	35	45
2026-01-30	24.63	23.05	-10.66	10689873	Balance	28	24
2026-01-23	23.10	23.18	-16.67	8096453	Balance	-8	7
2026-01-16	21.91	23.32	-22.16	10499516	Downward Expansion	-45	25
2026-01-09	21.55	23.56	-24.92	11712138	Downward Expansion	-48	31
2026-01-02	21.68	23.85	-24.40	6609615	Downward Expansion	-48	31
2025-12-26	20.65	24.02	-29.65	8716744	Downward Expansion	-56	28
2025-12-19	20.79	24.16	-29.01	13443780	Downward Expansion	-44	21
2025-12-12	21.82	24.30	-26.21	14224681	Downward Expansion	-34	18
2025-12-05	23.98	24.46	-20.43	11317472	Downward Expansion	-28	18
2025-11-28	21.61	24.49	-28.87	7967046	Downward Expansion	-55	39
2025-11-21	20.71	24.56	-30.36	10863514	Downward Expansion	-63	47
2025-11-14	21.54	24.62	-30.01	8496836	Downward Expansion	-60	59
2025-11-07	20.86	24.66	-33.03	14131904	Downward Expansion	-66	74
2025-10-31	21.36	24.66	-33.41	9954922	Downward Expansion	-62	74
2025-10-24	20.80	24.68	-35.40	10295208	Downward Expansion	-70	71
2025-10-17	20.84	24.92	-34.78	11593491	Downward Expansion	-71	57
2025-10-10	21.27	25.15	-32.99	8732059	Downward Expansion	-69	35
2025-10-03	24.17	25.35	-26.61	12655299	Downward Expansion	-36	16
2025-09-26	26.24	25.38	-20.29	12206165	Downward Expansion	-25	14
2025-09-19	23.77	25.48	-28.46	10471044	Downward Expansion	-54	30
2025-09-12	24.13	25.70	-27.14	6202005	Downward Expansion	-53	32
2025-09-05	23.56	25.97	-28.26	6208058	Downward Expansion	-59	46
2025-08-29	24.81	26.26	-24.83	6883210	Downward Expansion	-47	53
2025-08-22	23.81	26.54	-28.60	9453856	Downward Expansion	-60	63
2025-08-15	23.09	26.91	-31.26	8005408	Balance	-65	62
2025-08-08	23.22	27.43	-30.88	11065819	Balance	-56	41
2025-08-01	23.74	27.88	-28.32	10411053	Balance	-51	30
2025-07-25	27.01	28.26	-21.19	8553832	Balance	-21	11
2025-07-18	25.84	28.46	-24.15	9685110	Balance	-24	15
2025-07-11	29.16	28.67	-14.69	8660565	Balance	6	35
2025-07-04	28.27	28.94	-18.03	6564220	Balance	-0	23
2025-06-27	27.49	29.21	-19.42	12231150	Balance	-3	21
2025-06-20	29.20	29.62	-11.97	8955575	Balance	4	20
2025-06-13	30.04	29.95	-9.94	11720331	Downward Expansion	6	14
2025-06-06	26.85	30.18	-20.09	7519262	Downward Expansion	-32	22
2025-05-30	24.83	30.53	-25.37	5214108	Downward Expansion	-36	23
2025-05-23	25.16	30.79	-23.74	6321480	Downward Expansion	-40	26
2025-05-16	26.55	31.08	-22.19	9800098	Downward Expansion	-45	35
2025-05-09	24.80	31.32	-24.09	7850769	Downward Expansion	-61	52
2025-05-02	23.76	31.70	-28.16	12097421	Downward Expansion	-64	65
2025-04-25	22.57	32.12	-30.44	6518070	Downward Expansion	-65	80
2025-04-18	22.59	32.43	-27.99	6706448	Downward Expansion	-70	72
2025-04-11	21.00	32.79	-34.75	16434024	Downward Expansion	-85	82
2025-04-04	21.86	33.12	-29.04	12777862	Downward Expansion	-89	81
2025-03-28	28.16	33.44	-17.61	5553609	Downward Expansion	-66	81
2025-03-21	27.71	33.69	-20.56	9044123	Downward Expansion	-67	86
2025-03-14	27.05	33.96	-22.49	9045010	Downward Expansion	-75	87
2025-03-07	25.30	34.21	-29.55	15904298	Downward Expansion	-91	91
2025-02-28	28.99	34.51	-22.22	9141211	Downward Expansion	-81	81
2025-02-21	30.37	34.70	-19.66	7831342	Rotation Down	-75	74
2025-02-14	32.31	34.89	-16.15	6283921	Rotation Down	-27	46
2025-02-07	32.36	35.05	-14.98	6553628	Deceleration	-27	27
2025-01-31	33.08	35.15	-13.33	7206843	Deceleration	8	7
2025-01-24	34.91	35.19	-9.54	6271416	Deceleration	36	23
2025-01-17	38.68	35.14	1.76	7870591	Deceleration	62	27
2025-01-10	36.77	34.94	-0.33	4678347	Deceleration	29	26
2025-01-03	35.25	34.82	-6.43	4152486	Deceleration	-1	20
2024-12-27	32.79	34.76	-13.64	4278373	Upward Expansion	-13	22
2024-12-20	32.36	34.88	-14.58	13057792	Upward Expansion	13	9
2024-12-13	37.04	34.97	-4.48	5411947	Upward Expansion	59	61
2024-12-06	36.60	34.92	-6.37	5904883	Upward Expansion	59	67
2024-11-29	39.57	34.88	1.78	4175743	Upward Expansion	71	74
2024-11-22	39.30	34.76	2.07	4978601	Balance	70	64
2024-11-15	36.85	34.73	-2.91	4254770	Balance	29	26
2024-11-08	37.24	34.76	-4.21	10664052	Balance	22	11
2024-11-01	32.59	34.78	-12.46	4479507	Balance	-43	18
2024-10-25	33.95	34.93	-10.62	3765731	Balance	-25	20
2024-10-18	33.87	34.97	-12.30	4666982	Balance	-27	17
2024-10-11	36.28	34.99	-5.93	5740761	Balance	-13	11
2024-10-04	36.08	34.89	-5.92	7393573	Downward Expansion	-32	21
2024-09-27	32.00	34.76	-16.73	8356206	Downward Expansion	-57	61
2024-09-20	33.36	34.76	-13.36	8740894	Downward Expansion	-51	55
2024-09-13	30.96	34.66	-18.92	6016778	Deceleration	-69	60
2024-09-06	31.42	34.63	-15.00	7259010	Deceleration	-39	30
2024-08-30	35.77	34.54	-7.93	4299392	Deceleration	25	10
2024-08-23	35.61	34.29	-8.58	5541492	Deceleration	32	14
2024-08-16	34.70	34.12	-10.09	5058817	Deceleration	16	6
2024-08-09	34.13	33.96	-8.55	7717135	Deceleration	25	17
2024-08-02	34.69	33.87	-7.51	12439232	Deceleration	37	29
2024-07-26	36.13	33.77	-6.15	9375601	Deceleration	43	34
2024-07-19	37.15	33.66	-4.55	7615013	Deceleration	52	31
2024-07-12	35.50	33.52	-10.67	5390885	Deceleration	17	13
2024-07-05	34.23	33.40	-13.12	4241974	Deceleration	2	20
2024-06-28	33.42	33.33	-13.71	11013766	Deceleration	1	24
2024-06-21	32.70	33.32	-15.75	6824701	Deceleration	-7	23
2024-06-14	32.96	33.32	-14.63	5520661	Deceleration	7	16
2024-06-07	33.41	33.30	-12.17	5939191	Deceleration	20	19
2024-05-31	36.41	33.24	-3.16	3872860	Deceleration	42	26
2024-05-24	35.18	33.16	-6.65	6469967	Deceleration	39	28
2024-05-17	35.59	33.10	-5.51	4237029	Upward Expansion	48	38
2024-05-10	35.34	33.06	-4.55	5626872	Upward Expansion	62	52
2024-05-03	35.81	33.06	-1.45	8136833	Upward Expansion	67	79
2024-04-26	38.49	32.98	6.67	6191359	Upward Expansion	79	91
2024-04-19	37.81	32.87	7.73	7021606	Rotation Up	79	91
2024-04-12	37.93	32.73	4.98	6945057	Rotation Up	60	82
2024-04-05	36.90	32.62	0.65	6852093	Rotation Up	60	77
2024-03-29	35.30	32.62	-4.52	5178500	Rotation Up	43	61
2024-03-22	34.37	32.68	-6.62	5355129	Downward Expansion	37	39
2024-03-15	33.38	32.71	-7.16	5807380	Downward Expansion	-2	19
2024-03-08	32.00	32.78	-10.87	6352428	Downward Expansion	-26	20
2024-03-01	32.10	32.92	-10.92	6907439	Downward Expansion	-37	25
2024-02-23	30.46	33.07	-14.85	5849569	Downward Expansion	-60	54
2024-02-16	30.05	33.19	-14.82	5992567	Downward Expansion	-63	69
2024-02-09	28.57	33.24	-19.45	5652793	Downward Expansion	-75	80
2024-02-02	28.31	33.28	-19.38	6585167	Downward Expansion	-80	76
2024-01-26	30.70	33.33	-11.56	5870452	Downward Expansion	-61	62
2024-01-19	29.64	33.29	-13.96	5839979	Downward Expansion	-74	62
2024-01-12	31.67	33.21	-7.19	5370597	Deceleration	-30	26
2024-01-05	31.73	33.11	-5.34	4706528	Deceleration	-29	21
2023-12-29	32.64	32.99	-4.05	4174952	Deceleration	-21	17
2023-12-22	32.97	32.79	-2.76	7666771	Deceleration	-22	17
2023-12-15	31.94	32.58	-4.95	12360243	Deceleration	-20	18
2023-12-08	32.06	32.40	-2.36	7083252	Deceleration	-1	14
2023-12-01	33.03	32.23	0.89	5830732	Deceleration	4	17
2023-11-24	32.75	32.03	0.80	3206643	Deceleration	4	18
2023-11-17	32.49	31.89	0.88	5607180	Deceleration	3	17
2023-11-10	31.67	31.74	0.45	6064604	Deceleration	-4	13
2023-11-03	33.76	31.68	8.31	6052553	Deceleration	22	14
2023-10-27	33.45	31.48	13.54	7136934	Deceleration	33	17
2023-10-20	34.45	31.23	14.27	7359256	Deceleration	37	23

Price vs TrendAbove+5.1%

Trend directionFalling-0.9%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-13.5%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+23.8%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-3.8%

Relative strength directionImproving+25.5%

Price momentumNegative-8.1%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.62×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

12 / ±100

-21.3 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

13 /100

-52.3 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

NOG Directional State ↗ NOG Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance48

Rotation Up27

Upward Expansion36

Deceleration64

Rotation Down39

Downward Expansion23

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 12%Rotation Up 8%Upward Expansion 11%Deceleration 27%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 38%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-10-09	2026-10-09	New	+0.0%
Rotation Up	2026-08-28	2026-10-02	Developing	-5.6%
Downward Expansion	2026-07-03	2026-08-21	Developing	+52.3%
Rotation Down	2026-05-29	2026-06-26	Developing	-11.9%
Deceleration	2026-04-24	2026-05-22	Developing	-13.3%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-27	2026-04-17	Developing	-9.7%
Rotation Up	2026-02-06	2026-02-20	New	+9.8%
Balance	2026-01-23	2026-01-30	New	+6.6%
Downward Expansion	2025-08-22	2026-01-16	Established	-8.0%
Balance	2025-06-20	2025-08-15	Developing	-20.9%
Downward Expansion	2025-02-28	2025-06-13	Established	+3.6%
Rotation Down	2025-02-14	2025-02-21	New	-6.0%
Deceleration	2025-01-03	2025-02-07	Developing	-8.2%
Upward Expansion	2024-11-29	2024-12-27	Developing	-17.1%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing77

Stage 2 · Advancing44

Stage 3 · Distribution32

Stage 4 · Declining44

Legacy result: Stage 1 · Stage 1C · Breakout watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 51/100
Current Relative Strength: -3.79
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -8.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -23.0%
Energy regime cohort: 13th percentile15 in cohort

Test NOG trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.68×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.62×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore NOG Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 24.19falling

Slow Activity USD 23.12rising

Trend Reference USD 23.56+5.1% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 28.64-13.5% close margin

Structural low USD 17.18shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +8.7%

Annualized volatility +48.4%

From structural high -19.4%

From structural low +44.1%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	20	-1.7%-18.1% to +30.2%	+45.0%	+45.0%	-6.3%	+65.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	9	+1.2%-38.0% to +45.7%	+55.6%	+55.6%	-5.3%	+22.2%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+11.7%-19.8% to +35.1%	+80.0%	+80.0%	-1.5%	+20.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+7.9%-38.5% to +69.9%	+66.7%	+66.7%	-27.3%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

NOG Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map