Weekly structural research ยท MIL ยท Technology

AGP Stage Analysis

Altea Green Power S.p.A.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close EUR 5.43Tenure NewBenchmark FTSEMIB.MI
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Downward Expansion ยท Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

  • The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
  • Activity structure: wide and expanding.
Direction -90โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 96/100directional strength
Maturity 20/100lifecycle context
Confidence 78/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Downstructural direction
Activity structure Wideexpanding separation
Price acceptance -100.0%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context -22.5%EUR 7.00 ยท weakening
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-10-095.436.81-24.32211849Downward Expansion-9096
2026-10-025.656.86-22.92129782Downward Expansion-9196
2026-09-255.946.89-21.6278037Rotation Down-9095
2026-09-185.936.94-21.73185101Rotation Down-6275
2026-09-116.566.98-15.52194833Balance-3734
2026-09-047.007.01-9.6611060Balance2721
2026-08-287.137.03-9.4723926Balance4439
2026-08-217.117.05-10.394531Balance1517
2026-08-147.267.09-10.6612427Balance2010
2026-08-077.067.12-13.8510743Balance-1712
2026-07-317.027.13-12.3815981Balance-1410
2026-07-246.967.13-13.104837Balance-1418
2026-07-177.057.12-12.7325266Balance1227
2026-07-107.367.10-10.7621284Balance2432
2026-07-037.257.08-12.9725823Balance-18
2026-06-267.007.05-14.0215458Balance-209
2026-06-196.967.04-17.6538571Balance-3214
2026-06-126.977.01-16.0923156Balance-814
2026-06-056.906.98-14.9836730Balance-1017
2026-05-296.966.94-15.23122722Balance-1818
2026-05-226.806.93-17.06161137Balance-1812
2026-05-156.706.93-18.09130918Balance169
2026-05-086.816.93-17.37426856Balance2722
2026-05-017.556.93-7.07201886Balance5438
2026-04-247.146.90-11.33141255Balance3323
2026-04-177.256.89-12.61239910Rotation Down118
2026-04-107.106.88-12.58201858Rotation Down-1420
2026-04-036.746.88-13.93108342Rotation Down-2239
2026-03-276.376.91-14.87329173Deceleration-3137
2026-03-206.486.96-12.66290484Deceleration-2833
2026-03-136.647.02-13.68286245Deceleration-1324
2026-03-066.707.06-12.78448793Deceleration920
2026-02-277.327.09-11.05140602Deceleration3624
2026-02-207.327.09-10.03165421Rotation Up1619
2026-02-137.307.11-8.47238462Rotation Up3441
2026-02-067.617.12-5.32368706Rotation Up3869
2026-01-307.847.12-1.43688231Rotation Up3871
2026-01-238.387.127.21545233Rotation Up5174
2026-01-168.127.102.071320420Rotation Up4955
2026-01-097.257.09-8.72543071Balance1021
2026-01-027.017.12-11.36301156Downward Expansion-1417
2025-12-266.687.17-14.47113739Downward Expansion-3323
2025-12-196.577.24-16.50167486Downward Expansion-3824
2025-12-126.607.27-14.10154926Downward Expansion-4431
2025-12-056.577.28-14.67277652Downward Expansion-5741
2025-11-286.497.32-15.94239476Downward Expansion-6359
2025-11-216.037.35-21.04256028Downward Expansion-7075
2025-11-146.097.38-23.18411457Downward Expansion-7270
2025-11-075.907.41-24.32327115Downward Expansion-8372
2025-10-316.467.44-18.22254148Downward Expansion-7259
2025-10-246.787.45-13.36270780Downward Expansion-6256
2025-10-176.797.46-12.21262537Rotation Down-6366
2025-10-106.707.46-14.50521952Rotation Down-4062
2025-10-036.887.45-15.17612233Rotation Down-3658
2025-09-266.847.44-14.92382878Rotation Down-3050
2025-09-196.827.46-14.85897471Deceleration-2935
2025-09-127.187.47-11.23903566Deceleration13
2025-09-057.707.41-2.88135465Deceleration3522
2025-08-297.807.33-3.11159831Deceleration3623
2025-08-228.147.26-1.62461064Deceleration4624
2025-08-157.787.17-4.73112817Deceleration2412
2025-08-087.657.13-4.20147400Deceleration2913
2025-08-017.557.09-1.58165030Deceleration3016
2025-07-257.787.06-0.61218621Deceleration3218
2025-07-187.697.01-0.93315187Deceleration3220
2025-07-117.606.97-1.79190912Deceleration3620
2025-07-047.686.930.04151348Upward Expansion4228
2025-06-277.736.900.27323197Upward Expansion5743
2025-06-207.986.864.68469002Upward Expansion6169
2025-06-138.156.826.19439653Upward Expansion6372
2025-06-068.616.808.78384236Upward Expansion7876
2025-05-308.726.7411.44953075Upward Expansion8372
2025-05-237.376.70-4.52258624Upward Expansion5746
2025-05-166.966.70-12.89755837Balance5442
2025-05-097.856.730.88698088Balance4345
2025-05-027.156.72-5.99173011Balance2927
2025-04-257.126.72-4.49191619Balance2718
2025-04-186.906.71-4.22364287Balance1212
2025-04-116.926.701.34783075Balance1212
2025-04-046.676.69-4.35494440Balance911
2025-03-287.066.69-9.77446949Balance1820
2025-03-216.736.68-15.01338522Balance1120
2025-03-146.596.69-16.40322451Balance120
2025-03-076.536.70-17.46563242Downward Expansion-2223
2025-02-287.526.68-5.841175341Downward Expansion-69
2025-02-217.006.64-12.26994196Downward Expansion-4034
2025-02-145.406.65-31.92695072Downward Expansion-7081
2025-02-075.226.72-33.28450451Downward Expansion-8082
2025-01-315.606.80-27.98310352Downward Expansion-7467
2025-01-245.546.85-28.74710454Downward Expansion-7850
2025-01-176.496.90-17.74322775Downward Expansion-5430
2025-01-106.596.92-14.56208419Downward Expansion-5541
2025-01-036.676.95-11.5474993Downward Expansion-5750
2024-12-276.396.98-15.6844064Downward Expansion-6357
2024-12-206.307.04-16.17172815Downward Expansion-6559
2024-12-136.577.11-15.48232705Balance-5946
2024-12-066.727.16-13.12151063Balance-4330
2024-11-296.627.21-10.85170081Balance-4831
2024-11-226.787.27-8.68298266Balance-3921
2024-11-157.347.30-2.97215613Balance-77
2024-11-086.957.29-6.70270363Rotation Up619
2024-11-017.407.33-2.81132985Rotation Up1737
2024-10-257.407.34-2.60126826Rotation Up1731
2024-10-187.847.362.29411520Balance2930
2024-10-117.487.360.72184026Balance-310
2024-10-047.117.36-1.98216373Downward Expansion-3518
2024-09-276.987.41-6.64233523Downward Expansion-4026
2024-09-206.747.45-6.86109583Downward Expansion-4229
2024-09-136.587.49-8.0558632Downward Expansion-5733
2024-09-066.587.55-6.7983855Downward Expansion-5734
2024-08-306.787.59-6.4892708Downward Expansion-5539
2024-08-237.077.600.14145677Downward Expansion-5961
2024-08-166.707.67-2.7480680Downward Expansion-6170
2024-08-096.177.74-6.35326373Downward Expansion-7873
2024-08-026.317.79-4.45163904Downward Expansion-7746
2024-07-267.077.822.04177077Downward Expansion-6133
2024-07-197.497.827.58248422Downward Expansion-5336
2024-07-127.757.7711.02262879Rotation Down-5755
2024-07-057.007.693.02165061Rotation Down-4059
2024-06-287.007.636.39124742Balance-4046
2024-06-217.277.5710.86133979Balance-517
2024-06-147.337.5014.92288908Balance25
2024-06-077.837.4216.71129712Upward Expansion4423
2024-05-318.107.3222.54152326Upward Expansion5235
2024-05-248.207.2025.41160820Upward Expansion5242
2024-05-178.157.0822.97174517Deceleration4131
2024-05-108.326.9529.68363601Deceleration4526
2024-05-038.326.8635.35256095Deceleration3519
2024-04-267.646.7423.59148276Deceleration1811
2024-04-197.286.6319.97167134Deceleration1811
2024-04-127.896.5231.84226567Deceleration3521
2024-04-057.856.3931.83200632Deceleration3722
2024-03-297.886.2631.13176640Upward Expansion4128
2024-03-227.866.1333.96720692Upward Expansion4432
2024-03-157.686.0034.33294234Upward Expansion4736
2024-03-088.445.8852.09298703Upward Expansion6449
2024-03-018.205.7352.56276153Upward Expansion5344
2024-02-237.985.5752.16432725Upward Expansion5845
2024-02-168.305.4465.90380579Upward Expansion6958
2024-02-097.705.2959.85695171Upward Expansion6563
2024-02-027.245.1555.351161667Upward Expansion6877
2024-01-269.025.0399.24575665Upward Expansion8895
2024-01-199.004.85104.471587737Upward Expansion9598
2024-01-127.504.6873.73493471Upward Expansion8594
2024-01-057.404.5575.01697512Upward Expansion9093
2023-12-296.844.4265.82906753Upward Expansion8881
2023-12-226.024.3148.75671091Upward Expansion8064
2023-12-155.364.2134.34393727Upward Expansion6860
2023-12-085.324.1434.85291990Upward Expansion6860
2023-12-015.064.0731.93486836Upward Expansion6249
2023-11-245.304.0242.17365757Upward Expansion7249
2023-11-174.873.9732.03172787Upward Expansion6241
2023-11-104.803.9336.05385778Upward Expansion5936
2023-11-034.503.8828.11320082Upward Expansion5845
2023-10-274.733.8442.69318279Upward Expansion6264
2023-10-204.293.7930.47651811Upward Expansion6573
Price vs TrendBelow-20.3%
Trend directionFalling-4.4%
Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-22.5%
Fair Value directionMoving away-30.8%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-24.3%
Relative strength directionWeakening-13.6%
Price momentumNegative-23.5%
Volume balanceSupply-led0.18ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-90 / ยฑ100

-53.1 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

96 /100

+62.6 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance18
Rotation Up8
Upward Expansion22
Deceleration37
Rotation Down89
Downward Expansion100

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 ยท 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 27%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 22%Deceleration 15%Rotation Down 7%Downward Expansion 24%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Downward Expansion2026-10-022026-10-09New-3.9%
Rotation Down2026-09-182026-09-25New+0.2%
Balance2026-04-242026-09-11Established-8.1%
Rotation Down2026-04-032026-04-17New+7.6%
Deceleration2026-02-272026-03-27Developing-13.0%
Rotation Up2026-01-162026-02-20Developing-9.9%
Balance2026-01-092026-01-09New+0.0%
Downward Expansion2025-10-242026-01-02Developing+3.4%
Rotation Down2025-09-262025-10-17New-0.7%
Deceleration2025-07-112025-09-19Developing-10.3%
Upward Expansion2025-05-232025-07-04Developing+4.2%
Balance2025-03-142025-05-16Developing+5.6%
Downward Expansion2024-12-202025-03-07Developing+3.7%
Balance2024-11-152024-12-13Developing-10.5%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing51
Stage 2 ยท Advancing0
Stage 3 ยท Distribution26
Stage 4 ยท Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 ยท Stage 4A ยท Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus FTSEMIB.MI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
100/100
Current Relative Strength
-24.32
Relative Strength direction
Weakening
Price momentum
-23.5%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-28.0%
Technology regime cohort
100th percentile8 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume3.55ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.18ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 4

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+62.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity EUR 5.73falling
Slow Activity EUR 6.70falling
Trend Reference EUR 6.81-20.3% close margin
Current Fair Value EUR 7.00-22.5% close margin
Structural low EUR 5.30shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +5.8%
Annualized volatility +27.0%
From structural high -35.6%
From structural low +2.5%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs FTSEMIB.MI Regime survived Read
Near term9+3.0%-16.8% to +23.6%+55.6%+44.4%-3.4%+66.7%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate3+6.8%+4.7% to +23.6%+100.0%+0.0%+1.8%+0.0%Too little matched history
Extended3+5.3%-13.4% to +18.5%+66.7%+33.3%-6.9%+33.3%Too little matched history
Full cycle1+2.7%+2.7% to +2.7%+100.0%+0.0%-15.1%+0.0%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context