Weekly structural research ยท SHH ยท Consumer Cyclical

601599 Stage Analysis

Zhewen Pictures Group co.,ltd

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close CNY 3.25Tenure NewBenchmark 000001.SS
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Balance ยท Balance after decline

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

  • The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
  • Activity structure: moderate and contracting.
Direction 2โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 19/100directional strength
Maturity 12/100lifecycle context
Confidence 46/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Downstructural direction
Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation
Price acceptance +66.7%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context -9.4%CNY 3.59 ยท improving
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-10-023.253.32-6.1846653089Balance219
2026-09-253.233.35-8.0669806100Balance124
2026-09-183.233.39-8.9190094840Balance-123
2026-09-113.263.44-7.81110277110Downward Expansion120
2026-09-043.303.49-7.94253126922Downward Expansion-1421
2026-08-283.153.53-12.8517109100Downward Expansion-4132
2026-08-213.023.56-15.8510698322Downward Expansion-4543
2026-08-143.043.59-16.1912735100Downward Expansion-4850
2026-08-073.023.63-17.5121387650Downward Expansion-5155
2026-07-313.023.66-15.7719483200Downward Expansion-6462
2026-07-242.843.69-20.9012001400Downward Expansion-7469
2026-07-172.953.72-17.3620135900Downward Expansion-6783
2026-07-102.933.75-23.1922490400Downward Expansion-6888
2026-07-032.883.78-25.8915010300Downward Expansion-7992
2026-06-262.843.81-27.1613774700Downward Expansion-8995
2026-06-193.003.84-24.7847499002Downward Expansion-8393
2026-06-123.113.87-21.4414044479Downward Expansion-8192
2026-06-053.183.89-20.1016480400Downward Expansion-8393
2026-05-293.253.91-19.6381707870Downward Expansion-8490
2026-05-223.313.93-19.4594399800Rotation Down-8583
2026-05-153.493.93-15.94117061100Rotation Down-4751
2026-05-083.723.93-11.7363939924Rotation Down-3229
2026-05-013.713.93-10.8390939800Rotation Down-2429
2026-04-243.763.93-9.17100087152Rotation Down-2337
2026-04-173.773.93-8.5196276023Deceleration-2133
2026-04-103.783.93-6.9677055231Deceleration-2027
2026-04-033.653.93-7.96111325502Deceleration-2728
2026-03-273.973.93-1.03139885017Deceleration1822
2026-03-203.893.93-4.28128809794Deceleration1820
2026-03-134.103.92-2.81164707000Upward Expansion4023
2026-03-064.133.91-2.98225788007Upward Expansion5945
2026-02-274.323.910.34293986296Upward Expansion6370
2026-02-134.673.8910.34930650340Upward Expansion7078
2026-02-065.013.8718.59775960454Upward Expansion9287
2026-01-304.513.835.63499764802Upward Expansion8778
2026-01-234.033.80-6.04128282500Upward Expansion6260
2026-01-163.943.79-7.59247352606Upward Expansion5652
2026-01-094.143.78-3.57233033600Upward Expansion7464
2026-01-023.983.77-3.86156466780Balance6441
2025-12-263.843.76-7.2283030600Balance2216
2025-12-193.893.75-4.51121179968Balance3021
2025-12-123.743.74-8.62148809696Balance1813
2025-12-053.773.73-8.7498168100Balance2125
2025-11-283.893.73-5.95121544408Balance5135
2025-11-213.713.72-9.36105045902Balance715
2025-11-143.863.71-9.6198894900Balance1720
2025-11-073.803.69-11.36129810686Balance44
2025-10-313.703.68-12.9899771296Rotation Down-2419
2025-10-243.713.68-12.89174014202Rotation Down-1833
2025-10-173.463.68-16.6573785058Rotation Down-3454
2025-10-103.573.69-15.4638136202Rotation Down-2539
2025-10-033.583.70-15.0527073200Balance-2326
2025-09-263.623.70-13.1278526716Balance-010
2025-09-193.763.70-9.77121222759Upward Expansion2617
2025-09-123.823.71-9.68121643853Upward Expansion3015
2025-09-053.713.73-11.13103455979Upward Expansion2615
2025-08-293.723.72-12.13170570776Upward Expansion3417
2025-08-223.933.72-6.55174566670Upward Expansion5933
2025-08-153.773.71-7.20138990361Upward Expansion5332
2025-08-083.853.70-3.57119299202Upward Expansion5956
2025-08-013.923.680.38164516369Upward Expansion6566
2025-07-253.913.67-0.56112910003Upward Expansion6463
2025-07-183.913.661.38103397996Balance5856
2025-07-113.893.681.91111557907Balance2932
2025-07-043.713.69-1.4485761900Balance-67
2025-06-273.723.710.41116905105Balance-58
2025-06-203.553.72-2.15157624702Balance-2815
2025-06-133.703.721.65580391711Balance-1714
2025-06-063.703.721.6152461893Balance-2015
2025-05-303.663.721.8583068812Downward Expansion-3117
2025-05-233.573.72-0.5980469521Downward Expansion-3820
2025-05-163.563.72-1.4173282199Downward Expansion-5029
2025-05-093.563.71-0.7061515500Downward Expansion-5340
2025-05-023.523.700.0339298354Downward Expansion-5857
2025-04-253.473.70-1.9679660400Balance-5960
2025-04-183.443.70-2.3863046258Balance-3348
2025-04-113.373.68-3.29103219932Balance-3733
2025-04-043.663.671.5636865720Deceleration1710
2025-03-283.663.651.0866500815Deceleration209
2025-03-213.783.633.6871577310Deceleration3213
2025-03-143.893.604.45117833014Deceleration4723
2025-03-073.753.561.82132697500Deceleration3626
2025-02-283.683.531.24149971266Deceleration3628
2025-02-213.963.506.68272036229Deceleration4132
2025-02-144.243.4615.12418766397Deceleration5330
2025-02-073.683.411.7166934054Deceleration1110
2025-01-313.583.380.4814288600Deceleration717
2025-01-243.583.350.0874056786Deceleration1724
2025-01-173.543.33-1.0691298063Deceleration1925
2025-01-103.373.31-4.0082653600Upward Expansion2019
2025-01-033.413.29-4.5795981754Upward Expansion3729
2024-12-273.803.28-0.19157463604Upward Expansion6252
2024-12-204.283.2612.80399592440Upward Expansion6974
2024-12-134.363.2313.29222732276Upward Expansion8077
2024-12-064.203.208.19227744700Upward Expansion8067
2024-11-293.973.174.28394477286Upward Expansion7761
2024-11-223.633.15-3.21130937824Upward Expansion6254
2024-11-153.623.15-5.67132110668Upward Expansion6368
2024-11-083.763.14-5.78150363286Rotation Up7873
2024-11-013.573.13-5.71229022052Rotation Up4245
2024-10-253.613.13-5.47127134768Rotation Up5066
2024-10-183.363.14-10.97100263097Rotation Up2655
2024-10-113.263.17-12.49149677212Rotation Up2249
2024-10-043.593.19-7.2050069160Balance4860
2024-09-273.313.20-7.5882947002Balance1624
2024-09-202.973.22-6.4832176300Downward Expansion-1518
2024-09-132.993.25-4.7457009700Downward Expansion-2623
2024-09-063.033.25-5.6557789741Downward Expansion-3024
2024-08-303.023.25-8.5689839260Downward Expansion-3723
2024-08-232.883.28-13.2986030000Downward Expansion-4536
2024-08-162.853.30-15.1258282700Downward Expansion-5147
2024-08-092.833.33-15.44148019265Downward Expansion-6460
2024-08-022.773.37-18.6939130202Downward Expansion-6766
2024-07-262.703.42-20.6333649900Downward Expansion-7682
2024-07-192.723.47-22.7534068206Downward Expansion-7888
2024-07-122.773.55-21.3346780490Downward Expansion-7789
2024-07-052.833.61-19.3632347610Downward Expansion-7589
2024-06-282.883.66-18.7546528910Downward Expansion-7690
2024-06-212.883.70-19.9732939600Downward Expansion-8089
2024-06-142.973.74-18.9341937920Downward Expansion-7882
2024-06-072.993.78-19.1758756630Downward Expansion-7977
2024-05-313.223.79-14.0443099016Downward Expansion-6762
2024-05-243.253.80-13.2949906600Downward Expansion-6655
2024-05-173.423.79-10.8960815992Downward Expansion-5544
2024-05-103.423.79-10.9162948500Downward Expansion-5653
2024-05-033.503.79-7.3932438300Downward Expansion-5452
2024-04-263.453.79-8.1973140100Balance-5446
2024-04-193.323.79-10.82118483050Balance-3225
2024-04-123.503.79-4.3493554000Balance-2310
2024-04-053.703.79-0.2373867800Balance1713
2024-03-293.813.794.05213556600Balance3524
2024-03-224.313.7818.00367457533Balance4832
2024-03-153.933.768.15289296283Balance1416
2024-03-083.803.755.44427544976Rotation Down06
2024-03-013.973.7511.35499004985Rotation Down-1018
2024-02-233.833.748.79522719924Rotation Down-2236
2024-02-092.843.74-15.03175460680Rotation Down-4658
2024-02-023.173.76-0.43126417297Deceleration-3736
2024-01-263.763.7811.16147896319Deceleration1223
2024-01-193.703.7913.0289498800Deceleration1222
2024-01-123.773.8013.7696862700Deceleration2322
2024-01-053.843.8214.49159105400Upward Expansion4131
2023-12-294.253.8325.31205706355Upward Expansion6354
2023-12-224.303.8030.24320252507Upward Expansion6677
2023-12-154.983.7750.56451902963Upward Expansion8994
2023-12-084.703.7342.42739753222Rotation Up8790
2023-12-014.383.7031.32237804391Rotation Up5675
2023-11-244.173.6725.55393246464Rotation Up4147
2023-11-174.073.6622.75283649814Downward Expansion3737
2023-11-103.913.6319.24492647442Downward Expansion-710
2023-11-033.493.617.2776366000Downward Expansion-5744
2023-10-273.333.603.0554340802Downward Expansion-6266
2023-10-203.223.590.9839729999Rotation Down-7672
2023-10-133.293.59-0.2447560800Rotation Down-4555
2023-09-293.423.582.9931295899Rotation Down-3546
2023-09-223.453.573.2252929302Rotation Down-3245
Price vs TrendBelow-2.2%
Trend directionFalling-10.0%
Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-9.4%
Fair Value directionClosing upward+11.3%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-6.2%
Relative strength directionImproving+19.7%
Price momentumNegative-11.0%
Volume balanceDemand-led1.76ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

2 / ยฑ100

+15.5 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

19 /100

-1.6 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance42
Rotation Up45
Upward Expansion40
Deceleration33
Rotation Down15
Downward Expansion43

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2023-09-22 to 2026-10-02 ยท 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 21%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 20%Deceleration 14%Rotation Down 11%Downward Expansion 30%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Balance2026-09-182026-10-02New+0.6%
Downward Expansion2026-05-292026-09-11Established+0.3%
Rotation Down2026-04-242026-05-22Developing-12.0%
Deceleration2026-03-202026-04-17Developing-3.1%
Upward Expansion2026-01-092026-03-13Developing-1.0%
Balance2025-11-072026-01-02Developing+4.7%
Rotation Down2025-10-102025-10-31New+3.6%
Balance2025-09-262025-10-03New-1.1%
Upward Expansion2025-07-252025-09-19Developing-3.8%
Balance2025-06-062025-07-18Developing+5.7%
Downward Expansion2025-05-022025-05-30Developing+4.0%
Balance2025-04-112025-04-25New+3.0%
Deceleration2025-01-172025-04-04Developing+3.4%
Upward Expansion2024-11-152025-01-10Developing-6.9%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing73
Stage 2 ยท Advancing10
Stage 3 ยท Distribution13
Stage 4 ยท Declining90

Legacy result: Stage 4 ยท Stage 4C ยท Repair watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus 000001.SS

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
35/100
Current Relative Strength
-6.18
Relative Strength direction
Improving
Price momentum
-11.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-10.0%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort
10th percentile81 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume0.94ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.76ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity CNY 3.25rising
Slow Activity CNY 3.17falling
Trend Reference CNY 3.32-2.2% close margin
Current Fair Value CNY 3.59-9.4% close margin
Structural low CNY 2.81shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +4.6%
Annualized volatility +21.7%
From structural high -42.4%
From structural low +15.7%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs 000001.SS Regime survived Read
Near term24+0.8%-12.6% to +14.1%+54.2%+54.2%-0.2%+58.3%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate11+8.2%-24.4% to +31.8%+63.6%+63.6%+4.7%+27.3%Usable descriptive sample
Extended8+5.2%-23.9% to +16.5%+62.5%+62.5%-3.0%+25.0%Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle4+9.0%-1.0% to +13.3%+75.0%+75.0%-3.7%+25.0%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context