Weekly structural research ยท SHH ยท Industrials

601188 Stage Analysis

Heilongjiang Transport Development Co., Ltd.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close CNY 2.91Tenure NewBenchmark 000001.SS
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Deceleration ยท Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

  • The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
  • Activity structure: moderate and contracting.
Direction -38โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 28/100directional strength
Maturity 20/100lifecycle context
Confidence 63/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Downstructural direction
Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation
Price acceptance -33.3%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context -14.8%CNY 3.42 ยท improving
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-10-092.913.04-6.9726608204Deceleration-3828
2026-10-022.883.06-8.8628712773Downward Expansion-3929
2026-09-252.853.08-11.1747722930Downward Expansion-4629
2026-09-182.863.11-11.8163760056Downward Expansion-4124
2026-09-112.913.14-10.1168984648Downward Expansion-3623
2026-09-042.953.16-10.2913596130Downward Expansion-3927
2026-08-282.953.18-11.1220546201Downward Expansion-4536
2026-08-212.843.21-13.7614065044Downward Expansion-4843
2026-08-142.843.23-14.6714464421Downward Expansion-5046
2026-08-072.833.25-15.7212914755Downward Expansion-5348
2026-07-312.883.28-12.3217880966Downward Expansion-6357
2026-07-242.793.30-15.127968500Downward Expansion-7066
2026-07-172.903.32-11.1218453967Downward Expansion-6785
2026-07-102.783.34-20.1611757100Downward Expansion-7390
2026-07-032.783.37-21.619567665Downward Expansion-8092
2026-06-262.753.39-22.669901264Downward Expansion-8994
2026-06-192.863.42-21.3734704290Downward Expansion-8587
2026-06-122.993.45-17.1710498400Downward Expansion-7975
2026-06-053.193.47-11.9722858276Downward Expansion-6252
2026-05-293.143.49-14.6364082493Downward Expansion-6943
2026-05-223.223.50-13.83135438622Downward Expansion-5431
2026-05-153.383.51-10.5392367347Downward Expansion-4126
2026-05-083.373.51-12.3037797500Downward Expansion-5639
2026-05-013.363.52-11.7661270593Downward Expansion-6054
2026-04-243.283.52-13.7567334661Downward Expansion-6474
2026-04-173.243.53-14.6764923523Downward Expansion-7177
2026-04-103.323.54-11.7372797336Downward Expansion-6472
2026-04-033.213.55-12.6990335687Balance-7771
2026-03-273.413.56-8.30141109297Balance-3528
2026-03-203.423.56-9.26134748626Balance-1410
2026-03-133.643.57-6.87148410778Balance4823
2026-03-063.613.56-8.40169284079Balance4422
2026-02-273.663.56-8.1477578493Balance5438
2026-02-133.563.55-9.0389228597Balance4537
2026-02-063.633.55-7.09101646665Balance5043
2026-01-303.663.55-7.7795090594Balance5439
2026-01-233.673.54-8.1891598089Balance4423
2026-01-163.563.53-10.42114775242Balance73
2026-01-093.533.53-11.8382128315Balance-66
2026-01-023.543.52-8.4967149585Balance-812
2025-12-263.513.52-9.4178116755Balance-911
2025-12-193.513.51-8.0286441168Balance2116
2025-12-123.423.51-10.72139162511Balance1112
2025-12-053.633.51-6.16220494814Upward Expansion5124
2025-11-283.553.51-8.3179513016Upward Expansion4726
2025-11-213.523.52-8.22110240481Upward Expansion4847
2025-11-143.733.53-6.86104731539Upward Expansion6761
2025-11-073.653.52-9.23127815651Balance5646
2025-10-313.643.52-8.77119291244Balance2624
2025-10-243.643.52-9.02140637791Balance-22
2025-10-173.463.50-11.2174179677Balance-3726
2025-10-103.483.50-12.2726857574Balance111
2025-10-033.423.49-13.7620200800Balance-1413
2025-09-263.413.49-13.0782530843Upward Expansion1911
2025-09-193.563.48-9.31187949524Upward Expansion5032
2025-09-123.563.47-10.70212660950Upward Expansion5238
2025-09-053.663.46-7.07197178379Balance6541
2025-08-293.523.45-11.96122656955Balance4725
2025-08-223.543.44-10.9580083512Balance5125
2025-08-153.503.44-9.0980669330Balance4731
2025-08-083.533.43-6.9571020489Balance4235
2025-08-013.463.42-7.0890699566Balance3829
2025-07-253.573.41-5.51121645414Balance4533
2025-07-183.513.42-5.9666417392Balance3520
2025-07-113.543.42-4.7199574187Balance3213
2025-07-043.463.44-5.8574790758Balance-1915
2025-06-273.423.46-5.59133848498Balance-4025
2025-06-203.293.47-7.6058787700Balance-4831
2025-06-133.333.48-6.7285887966Balance-1619
2025-06-063.443.49-3.9553448495Balance-514
2025-05-303.413.50-3.6580566292Balance-28
2025-05-233.373.50-4.81112700959Rotation Up39
2025-05-163.503.51-1.88221858571Rotation Up2129
2025-05-093.733.505.09372433050Rotation Up2748
2025-05-023.793.498.62324322692Rotation Up3451
2025-04-253.763.497.32504104997Rotation Up3637
2025-04-183.493.470.41223938979Downward Expansion1322
2025-04-113.663.456.50440607878Downward Expansion1922
2025-04-043.473.42-2.00236516325Downward Expansion-2518
2025-03-283.243.41-9.0280661821Downward Expansion-6048
2025-03-213.333.40-6.9570453990Downward Expansion-2940
2025-03-143.293.39-9.7470260171Deceleration-3144
2025-03-073.213.38-11.2448076747Deceleration-3441
2025-02-283.183.38-10.9761983598Deceleration-3627
2025-02-213.253.40-11.0385572292Deceleration-2319
2025-02-143.313.41-8.5386210334Deceleration-1818
2025-02-073.423.41-4.4258569915Deceleration-1726
2025-01-313.333.40-5.6119043498Deceleration-2037
2025-01-243.303.38-7.1170464358Deceleration-2030
2025-01-173.293.37-7.9268641040Deceleration-1828
2025-01-103.223.36-8.7976398096Deceleration518
2025-01-033.323.35-7.74105216705Upward Expansion2616
2024-12-273.613.34-5.84142409488Upward Expansion5640
2024-12-203.753.33-1.87225578544Upward Expansion5954
2024-12-134.093.315.75279580665Upward Expansion7771
2024-12-063.953.291.71229373003Upward Expansion7556
2024-11-293.813.290.41151443116Upward Expansion7158
2024-11-223.583.28-4.19133740508Upward Expansion5858
2024-11-153.523.27-7.74120091391Upward Expansion6062
2024-11-083.703.26-6.76248705783Upward Expansion7473
2024-11-013.673.25-2.62264259805Rotation Up7369
2024-10-253.393.24-11.02144862128Rotation Up2844
2024-10-183.453.24-8.77117653036Balance2027
2024-10-113.453.24-7.85177822329Balance1819
2024-10-043.533.24-9.5069452098Downward Expansion-76
2024-09-273.213.24-11.51126830418Downward Expansion-4425
2024-09-202.893.26-10.4432019888Downward Expansion-6152
2024-09-132.913.27-8.7576159571Downward Expansion-6254
2024-09-063.143.28-3.75114764094Downward Expansion-5141
2024-08-303.003.28-10.2958346400Balance-5639
2024-08-232.983.31-11.2285460996Balance-5426
2024-08-163.063.36-9.6093350895Balance-2419
2024-08-093.133.40-6.91227899473Downward Expansion-1622
2024-08-023.643.446.80504391657Downward Expansion-120
2024-07-263.603.456.57409929975Downward Expansion-713
2024-07-193.293.46-4.99210197481Downward Expansion-4533
2024-07-123.093.50-10.4189108844Downward Expansion-6353
2024-07-052.903.52-15.1431239367Downward Expansion-7077
2024-06-282.893.54-15.8842638388Downward Expansion-7582
2024-06-212.973.57-14.2936168737Downward Expansion-7077
2024-06-143.003.60-14.3831412949Downward Expansion-7074
2024-06-073.033.62-14.0267565588Downward Expansion-7163
2024-05-313.203.64-10.3660348520Downward Expansion-5827
2024-05-243.293.67-7.72132593275Downward Expansion-4121
2024-05-173.523.68-3.11261461726Downward Expansion-2818
2024-05-103.813.705.09267642337Downward Expansion-1911
2024-05-033.473.71-2.1654980778Downward Expansion-5138
2024-04-263.353.73-4.8060237181Downward Expansion-5445
2024-04-193.203.76-8.1388007911Downward Expansion-6147
2024-04-123.313.76-3.11121471992Downward Expansion-5536
2024-04-053.423.76-1.3562059997Balance-4022
2024-03-293.483.751.7690715024Balance-3821
2024-03-223.453.740.57105083889Balance-2315
2024-03-153.523.732.82124315914Rotation Down-2217
2024-03-083.453.721.55231228999Rotation Down-2536
2024-03-013.683.729.08169611312Rotation Down-2529
2024-02-233.383.701.50131826934Upward Expansion-1627
2024-02-093.003.70-5.00133721396Upward Expansion-2726
2024-02-023.213.707.01154857393Upward Expansion96
2024-01-264.073.7027.66253248379Upward Expansion5335
2024-01-194.363.6641.69358238064Upward Expansion6044
2024-01-124.303.6238.82534017565Upward Expansion6049
2024-01-054.363.5839.70282624077Upward Expansion6657
2023-12-293.873.5323.34297002064Upward Expansion5142
2023-12-224.053.5132.72454648125Upward Expansion5336
2023-12-154.283.4840.18272856639Deceleration6231
2023-12-083.793.4424.29296425339Deceleration3314
2023-12-013.633.4217.3357030286Deceleration3016
2023-11-243.703.4020.1081550516Deceleration3218
2023-11-173.693.3819.6772660652Deceleration3519
2023-11-103.673.3520.37174217707Deceleration3822
2023-11-033.663.3321.04238683992Upward Expansion4429
2023-10-274.113.3037.35346282006Upward Expansion6748
2023-10-203.753.2728.12151491809Upward Expansion6254
2023-10-133.923.2630.04241548238Upward Expansion6480
2023-09-294.153.2437.66326772209Upward Expansion7585
Price vs TrendBelow-4.2%
Trend directionFalling-7.4%
Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-14.8%
Fair Value directionClosing upward+4.7%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-7.0%
Relative strength directionImproving+13.2%
Price momentumNegative-12.3%
Volume balanceSupply-led0.63ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-38 / ยฑ100

-1.9 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

28 /100

+5.0 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance42
Rotation Up23
Upward Expansion14
Deceleration65
Rotation Down38
Downward Expansion62

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2023-09-29 to 2026-10-09 ยท 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 29%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 19%Deceleration 11%Rotation Down 2%Downward Expansion 35%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Deceleration2026-10-092026-10-09New+0.0%
Downward Expansion2026-04-102026-10-02Established-13.3%
Balance2025-12-122026-04-03Established-6.1%
Upward Expansion2025-11-142025-12-05New-2.7%
Balance2025-10-032025-11-07Developing+6.7%
Upward Expansion2025-09-122025-09-26New-4.2%
Balance2025-05-302025-09-05Established+7.2%
Rotation Up2025-04-252025-05-23Developing-10.2%
Downward Expansion2025-03-212025-04-18Developing+4.7%
Deceleration2025-01-102025-03-14Developing+2.4%
Upward Expansion2024-11-082025-01-03Developing-10.1%
Rotation Up2024-10-252024-11-01New+8.1%
Balance2024-10-112024-10-18New+0.0%
Downward Expansion2024-09-062024-10-04Developing+12.5%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing69
Stage 2 ยท Advancing0
Stage 3 ยท Distribution12
Stage 4 ยท Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 ยท Stage 4C ยท Repair watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus 000001.SS

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
83/100
Current Relative Strength
-6.97
Relative Strength direction
Improving
Price momentum
-12.3%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-8.0%
Industrials regime cohort
80th percentile35 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume1.03ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.63ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity CNY 2.88falling
Slow Activity CNY 2.94falling
Trend Reference CNY 3.04-4.2% close margin
Current Fair Value CNY 3.42-14.8% close margin
Structural low CNY 2.69shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +3.3%
Annualized volatility +19.2%
From structural high -25.0%
From structural low +8.1%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs 000001.SS Regime survived Read
Near term12+5.5%-6.3% to +15.2%+75.0%+75.0%+4.3%+58.3%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate5+8.7%-18.1% to +14.0%+60.0%+60.0%+10.4%+20.0%Usable descriptive sample
Extended4+2.6%-5.5% to +10.1%+50.0%+50.0%+4.4%+0.0%Too little matched history
Full cycle3+9.7%-4.1% to +23.7%+66.7%+66.7%+10.2%+0.0%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context