Weekly structural research ยท NYSE ยท Consumer Defensive

LND Stage Analysis

Brasilagro Adr

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 3.78Tenure NewBenchmark SPY
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Downward Expansion ยท Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

  • The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
  • Activity structure: moderate and expanding.
Direction -36โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 33/100directional strength
Maturity 4/100lifecycle context
Confidence 91/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Downstructural direction
Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation
Price acceptance -16.7%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context -4.6%USD 3.96 ยท improving
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-10-093.783.77-9.10393168Downward Expansion-3633
2026-10-023.513.79-14.81301350Downward Expansion-5956
2026-09-253.513.80-15.26283502Balance-5840
2026-09-183.573.83-13.05198441Balance-4217
2026-09-113.713.84-10.05210692Balance-1214
2026-09-043.793.85-9.05329100Balance-1110
2026-08-283.823.85-8.57301062Downward Expansion-1410
2026-08-213.773.86-9.65278133Downward Expansion-3521
2026-08-143.583.86-15.64350000Downward Expansion-5833
2026-08-073.603.87-15.34114959Downward Expansion-4624
2026-07-313.753.87-9.09109025Downward Expansion-3620
2026-07-243.703.87-9.57180588Downward Expansion-4225
2026-07-173.733.86-9.61191959Downward Expansion-5537
2026-07-103.673.86-12.69145120Downward Expansion-6061
2026-07-033.603.86-13.48261265Rotation Down-6465
2026-06-263.573.86-12.70290947Rotation Down-4358
2026-06-193.573.87-15.11193419Rotation Down-4655
2026-06-123.743.87-10.74222922Rotation Down-3139
2026-06-053.673.87-12.27306475Rotation Down-3149
2026-05-293.773.86-12.53231661Rotation Down-2340
2026-05-223.813.86-10.70323729Deceleration-1828
2026-05-153.733.86-12.21283365Deceleration-2324
2026-05-083.813.85-10.46373079Deceleration49
2026-05-013.883.85-7.04561163Deceleration2613
2026-04-244.053.84-2.35410711Deceleration3823
2026-04-174.093.82-1.22364637Upward Expansion4022
2026-04-104.123.813.51513292Upward Expansion5429
2026-04-034.103.806.35797391Upward Expansion5534
2026-03-273.973.796.03513288Upward Expansion5638
2026-03-204.123.787.38906852Upward Expansion6057
2026-03-134.253.778.66560181Upward Expansion7367
2026-03-064.063.752.25287852Upward Expansion6152
2026-02-274.223.734.09444600Upward Expansion7858
2026-02-203.973.71-2.48193872Upward Expansion6255
2026-02-133.883.70-3.71311450Upward Expansion6066
2026-02-063.863.69-5.54564635Upward Expansion5966
2026-01-304.023.68-1.96518402Upward Expansion7270
2026-01-234.063.67-0.72266949Balance7358
2026-01-163.733.66-9.19238827Balance-189
2026-01-093.673.66-11.17347394Balance-4026
2026-01-023.583.66-12.17127194Balance-4734
2025-12-263.573.67-13.52132379Balance-4819
2025-12-193.583.67-12.24178152Balance-78
2025-12-123.733.68-8.71344120Balance1915
2025-12-053.753.67-8.95249801Balance44
2025-11-283.753.66-8.86138473Balance-157
2025-11-213.503.66-12.06337814Balance-3015
2025-11-143.663.66-10.22179318Balance15
2025-11-073.663.67-10.52270248Balance-22
2025-10-313.723.67-10.92157184Balance-3316
2025-10-243.703.67-11.18164541Balance-4128
2025-10-173.563.67-13.22199078Balance-5740
2025-10-103.553.68-12.34200264Balance-5630
2025-10-033.603.68-13.74226493Balance-1310
2025-09-263.703.68-11.00139681Balance4526
2025-09-193.743.67-10.86131139Balance4640
2025-09-123.643.67-12.57250168Balance4131
2025-09-053.843.67-6.94101832Balance6147
2025-08-293.793.66-8.39145458Balance5426
2025-08-223.703.65-11.07134995Balance23
2025-08-153.593.65-14.00254833Balance-2421
2025-08-083.663.65-12.10106262Balance-814
2025-08-013.593.65-12.21110296Balance-1516
2025-07-253.633.64-13.94214108Balance-67
2025-07-183.623.64-13.45115413Balance2112
2025-07-113.613.64-13.75153048Balance2612
2025-07-043.743.64-11.57270981Balance4931
2025-06-273.663.64-12.46140802Balance4731
2025-06-203.783.64-7.03290698Balance5637
2025-06-133.693.65-9.69114629Balance810
2025-06-063.733.66-9.44138409Balance118
2025-05-303.643.67-10.6792430Balance-3115
2025-05-233.713.68-7.96168528Balance-1815
2025-05-163.593.69-13.60171311Balance-3524
2025-05-093.553.70-10.62130270Balance-3822
2025-05-023.533.72-12.29203153Balance-3816
2025-04-253.693.74-6.27224714Balance-514
2025-04-183.753.76-1.02149623Balance1624
2025-04-113.763.78-2.60398253Balance-216
2025-04-043.813.803.93202235Balance315
2025-03-283.753.81-7.42154415Balance-1010
2025-03-213.723.83-9.96110671Downward Expansion-3221
2025-03-143.573.85-13.43223650Downward Expansion-5235
2025-03-073.573.87-15.86256957Downward Expansion-5337
2025-02-283.443.90-22.01235785Downward Expansion-7146
2025-02-213.603.92-19.66127140Downward Expansion-4127
2025-02-143.633.94-20.83204932Downward Expansion-4025
2025-02-073.593.97-21.21168000Downward Expansion-4530
2025-01-313.704.00-19.50230338Downward Expansion-4635
2025-01-243.704.03-20.96102788Downward Expansion-6149
2025-01-173.604.04-22.36132871Downward Expansion-6562
2025-01-103.464.06-23.95185365Downward Expansion-7383
2025-01-033.494.09-25.52262094Downward Expansion-7485
2024-12-273.464.12-27.29243614Downward Expansion-8489
2024-12-203.584.15-24.96455304Downward Expansion-7984
2024-12-133.694.18-24.87498398Downward Expansion-7473
2024-12-063.724.20-25.46419281Downward Expansion-7656
2024-11-293.844.23-22.98238226Downward Expansion-6843
2024-11-223.994.25-19.81195339Downward Expansion-5739
2024-11-154.024.27-18.41295068Downward Expansion-5846
2024-11-084.034.29-20.58349240Downward Expansion-6165
2024-11-013.914.30-19.83291531Downward Expansion-7273
2024-10-254.024.31-19.52416954Downward Expansion-6465
2024-10-183.944.33-22.44334558Downward Expansion-7062
2024-10-114.054.34-20.38233503Downward Expansion-6350
2024-10-044.194.35-17.23147301Downward Expansion-5125
2024-09-274.274.36-16.14187667Downward Expansion-4318
2024-09-204.194.36-17.86383157Downward Expansion-5223
2024-09-134.404.36-12.97170672Downward Expansion-2410
2024-09-064.304.36-12.01105196Downward Expansion-4624
2024-08-304.204.36-17.88205140Downward Expansion-5332
2024-08-234.314.37-15.79183736Downward Expansion-4634
2024-08-164.254.38-16.14206463Downward Expansion-4837
2024-08-094.334.40-11.35199903Downward Expansion-4022
2024-08-024.144.41-15.44238009Downward Expansion-5723
2024-07-264.324.43-13.96127113Downward Expansion-2918
2024-07-194.474.44-12.14136284Downward Expansion-1911
2024-07-124.464.45-14.30170248Downward Expansion-2916
2024-07-054.434.46-14.25121123Downward Expansion-4832
2024-06-284.174.46-18.13112401Downward Expansion-6560
2024-06-214.234.48-17.24102072Balance-6052
2024-06-144.324.48-15.30196591Balance-5237
2024-06-074.294.49-14.86260788Balance-4529
2024-05-314.354.49-12.72127293Balance-3920
2024-05-244.454.50-11.16140638Balance-109
2024-05-174.484.50-10.72258082Balance812
2024-05-104.464.51-9.73226179Balance1015
2024-05-034.614.51-5.02315488Balance2320
2024-04-264.484.50-7.1593613Balance-2215
2024-04-194.544.50-3.64195915Downward Expansion-1916
2024-04-124.364.50-10.39248505Downward Expansion-3718
2024-04-054.424.51-10.77193805Downward Expansion-3822
2024-03-294.504.50-10.03183511Rotation Down-4026
2024-03-224.314.48-13.69191991Rotation Down-3143
2024-03-154.274.47-12.91196398Rotation Down-3952
2024-03-084.354.46-11.54265684Rotation Down-3149
2024-03-014.344.45-12.38131515Rotation Down-2344
2024-02-234.284.45-12.86118837Balance-2939
2024-02-164.364.45-10.26325182Balance-416
2024-02-094.404.45-9.92321054Balance914
2024-02-024.574.44-5.58165294Upward Expansion3117
2024-01-264.624.43-3.48218626Upward Expansion3620
2024-01-194.574.42-4.06110583Upward Expansion5029
2024-01-124.684.41-1.05160897Upward Expansion5541
2024-01-054.734.391.69168360Upward Expansion5856
2023-12-294.784.361.04292473Upward Expansion6456
2023-12-224.714.32-0.53363021Upward Expansion6049
2023-12-154.764.291.02225515Upward Expansion6543
2023-12-084.534.25-1.57348840Upward Expansion4925
2023-12-014.544.23-1.23477439Upward Expansion4924
2023-11-244.484.21-1.73182528Upward Expansion3823
2023-11-174.464.18-1.32198602Upward Expansion4023
2023-11-104.454.160.61325440Upward Expansion5231
2023-11-034.644.156.26284000Upward Expansion6339
2023-10-274.394.135.79410814Upward Expansion5435
2023-10-204.614.118.17374532Upward Expansion6653
Price vs TrendAbove+0.3%
Trend directionFalling-2.7%
Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-4.6%
Fair Value directionClosing upward+3.9%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-9.1%
Relative strength directionImproving+3.6%
Price momentumNegative-8.3%
Volume balanceSupply-led0.76ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-36 / ยฑ100

-23.9 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

33 /100

+19.0 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance40
Rotation Up18
Upward Expansion9
Deceleration39
Rotation Down53
Downward Expansion76

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 ยท 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 39%Upward Expansion 18%Deceleration 3%Rotation Down 7%Downward Expansion 33%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Downward Expansion2026-10-022026-10-09New+7.7%
Balance2026-09-042026-09-25New-7.4%
Downward Expansion2026-07-102026-08-28Developing+4.1%
Rotation Down2026-05-292026-07-03Developing-4.5%
Deceleration2026-04-242026-05-22Developing-5.9%
Upward Expansion2026-01-302026-04-17Developing+1.7%
Balance2025-03-282026-01-23Extended+8.4%
Downward Expansion2024-06-282025-03-21Extended-10.8%
Balance2024-04-262024-06-21Developing-5.7%
Downward Expansion2024-04-052024-04-19New+2.8%
Rotation Down2024-03-012024-03-29Developing+3.9%
Balance2024-02-092024-02-23New-2.7%
Upward Expansion2023-09-292024-02-02Established+0.3%
Balance2023-09-012023-09-22New+13.6%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing68
Stage 2 ยท Advancing20
Stage 3 ยท Distribution40
Stage 4 ยท Declining80

Legacy result: Stage 4 ยท Stage 4C ยท Repair watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
84/100
Current Relative Strength
-9.10
Relative Strength direction
Improving
Price momentum
-8.3%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-23.1%
Consumer Defensive regime cohort
28th percentile36 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume1.61ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.76ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity USD 3.62falling
Slow Activity USD 3.70falling
Trend Reference USD 3.77+0.3% close margin
Current Fair Value USD 3.96-4.6% close margin
Structural low USD 3.37shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +5.1%
Annualized volatility +19.8%
From structural high -15.1%
From structural low +12.2%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs SPY Regime survived Read
Near term20+2.6%-8.3% to +23.3%+60.0%+40.0%+1.4%+70.0%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate9+5.3%-16.9% to +57.5%+77.8%+22.2%+4.8%+55.6%Usable descriptive sample
Extended5+20.7%-9.1% to +59.9%+60.0%+40.0%+11.1%+20.0%Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle3+16.0%-13.6% to +42.0%+66.7%+33.3%-12.3%+0.0%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context