Weekly structural research · PAR · Consumer Defensive

BN Stage Analysis

Danone S.A.

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close EUR 59.12Tenure NewBenchmark ^FCHI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -80−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 92/100directional strength

Maturity 12/100lifecycle context

Confidence 81/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -6.5%EUR 63.24 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	59.12	65.75	-10.42	8009351	Downward Expansion	-80	92
2026-09-25	59.56	66.04	-12.03	5215454	Downward Expansion	-84	93
2026-09-18	60.54	66.39	-10.76	8302610	Rotation Down	-73	81
2026-09-11	61.38	66.74	-11.11	6000415	Rotation Down	-55	67
2026-09-04	63.72	67.03	-9.18	5410901	Deceleration	-44	42
2026-08-28	64.40	67.13	-9.91	1196999	Deceleration	-20	29
2026-08-21	66.32	67.10	-8.40	907661	Deceleration	13	24
2026-08-14	67.24	67.07	-8.98	806390	Deceleration	30	26
2026-08-07	68.22	67.26	-8.69	1022001	Rotation Up	43	27
2026-07-31	67.52	67.46	-7.68	1637850	Rotation Up	32	34
2026-07-24	70.00	67.66	-3.01	1236855	Rotation Up	38	68
2026-07-17	72.98	67.80	1.55	1136216	Rotation Up	47	77
2026-07-10	72.42	67.87	0.84	946400	Rotation Up	39	71
2026-07-03	73.40	67.91	0.25	1385521	Rotation Up	47	52
2026-06-26	72.12	67.92	-0.06	2619481	Rotation Up	11	28
2026-06-19	65.06	67.99	-10.26	2973038	Downward Expansion	-36	22
2026-06-12	67.18	68.35	-6.85	1524353	Downward Expansion	-35	27
2026-06-05	64.42	68.64	-9.45	1419514	Downward Expansion	-63	58
2026-05-29	60.94	69.01	-14.23	10012359	Downward Expansion	-74	82
2026-05-22	61.86	69.45	-12.59	9388088	Downward Expansion	-72	79
2026-05-15	61.24	69.89	-12.04	8232465	Downward Expansion	-80	82
2026-05-08	62.80	70.35	-11.85	8000628	Downward Expansion	-73	69
2026-05-01	64.49	70.70	-9.81	4492550	Downward Expansion	-65	52
2026-04-24	65.28	70.91	-9.45	7375060	Downward Expansion	-61	44
2026-04-17	65.84	71.08	-11.82	7324039	Downward Expansion	-57	46
2026-04-10	66.85	71.26	-9.01	6315005	Downward Expansion	-55	47
2026-04-03	66.91	71.44	-5.80	4947749	Downward Expansion	-55	46
2026-03-27	64.90	71.63	-5.73	7203094	Downward Expansion	-68	53
2026-03-20	66.19	71.76	-3.39	10749128	Downward Expansion	-64	36
2026-03-13	69.50	71.91	-1.67	7501336	Downward Expansion	-38	19
2026-03-06	67.83	71.91	-4.92	7407128	Downward Expansion	-47	23
2026-02-27	70.19	71.97	-8.31	6892060	Downward Expansion	-42	24
2026-02-20	71.12	71.97	-6.35	6519481	Rotation Down	-60	48
2026-02-13	69.88	71.75	-5.63	8121311	Rotation Down	-37	67
2026-02-06	66.83	71.61	-9.20	11013494	Rotation Down	-39	71
2026-01-30	63.62	71.57	-11.96	10427421	Rotation Down	-52	73
2026-01-23	65.26	71.67	-9.89	10098715	Rotation Down	-45	46
2026-01-16	72.90	71.73	-0.70	7046274	Deceleration	14	11
2026-01-09	74.23	71.61	0.07	5292083	Deceleration	34	20
2026-01-02	73.48	71.47	1.23	2063756	Deceleration	34	18
2025-12-26	74.29	71.41	3.64	1470991	Deceleration	37	21
2025-12-19	75.14	71.36	4.42	7247094	Deceleration	45	25
2025-12-12	73.53	71.29	3.45	6472993	Upward Expansion	42	27
2025-12-05	73.61	71.23	3.16	4580061	Upward Expansion	47	38
2025-11-28	74.40	71.17	4.37	5765205	Upward Expansion	61	49
2025-11-21	75.81	71.10	8.39	5060194	Upward Expansion	66	67
2025-11-14	75.89	70.92	6.25	5354576	Upward Expansion	70	73
2025-11-07	75.56	70.70	8.93	4543235	Upward Expansion	70	76
2025-10-31	74.09	70.41	4.83	4747112	Upward Expansion	61	72
2025-10-24	75.16	70.20	5.15	4695736	Upward Expansion	70	66
2025-10-17	74.91	69.91	5.67	6294072	Upward Expansion	72	52
2025-10-10	73.32	69.67	7.06	5724528	Upward Expansion	66	37
2025-10-03	70.69	69.46	1.41	4887116	Upward Expansion	51	32
2025-09-26	70.56	69.35	4.10	3894256	Upward Expansion	55	46
2025-09-19	71.27	69.16	5.64	5816572	Upward Expansion	56	46
2025-09-12	72.12	68.92	7.53	3660043	Upward Expansion	67	56
2025-09-05	72.55	68.62	10.54	5697141	Balance	72	46
2025-08-29	68.78	68.30	4.66	4520927	Balance	39	31
2025-08-22	70.77	68.12	4.38	4456683	Balance	50	40
2025-08-15	69.63	67.79	3.61	4021376	Balance	36	24
2025-08-08	69.48	67.51	6.07	5422148	Rotation Down	24	15
2025-08-01	70.06	67.21	10.05	9378835	Rotation Down	-8	28
2025-07-25	64.53	66.90	-2.07	3938248	Rotation Down	-42	70
2025-07-18	65.77	66.78	0.15	5050622	Deceleration	-33	55
2025-07-11	65.55	66.59	0.00	5553826	Deceleration	-18	37
2025-07-04	66.75	66.45	3.87	5077382	Deceleration	-6	24
2025-06-27	67.16	66.25	4.93	5532562	Deceleration	18	21
2025-06-20	69.17	66.04	9.92	6219518	Upward Expansion	44	31
2025-06-13	70.17	65.78	10.63	4733335	Upward Expansion	61	48
2025-06-06	71.60	65.48	11.60	4303363	Upward Expansion	65	57
2025-05-30	72.70	65.14	14.67	6445644	Upward Expansion	69	66
2025-05-23	73.09	64.79	16.20	6225417	Upward Expansion	75	79
2025-05-16	71.80	64.41	12.63	7615562	Upward Expansion	69	79
2025-05-09	71.85	64.05	15.40	5653952	Upward Expansion	75	83
2025-05-02	72.27	63.69	16.36	5808014	Upward Expansion	82	73
2025-04-25	70.24	63.28	17.31	7825015	Upward Expansion	75	57
2025-04-18	69.26	62.99	20.47	6671567	Upward Expansion	74	54
2025-04-11	66.88	62.70	20.10	13364959	Upward Expansion	61	50
2025-04-04	67.93	62.51	19.99	11229200	Upward Expansion	71	60
2025-03-28	66.52	62.29	8.74	6881765	Upward Expansion	66	78
2025-03-21	67.52	62.04	9.11	8782453	Upward Expansion	77	87
2025-03-14	67.10	61.69	9.12	11344465	Upward Expansion	80	85
2025-03-07	67.46	61.35	8.93	11750349	Upward Expansion	89	86
2025-02-28	64.68	60.98	5.00	10822750	Upward Expansion	75	76
2025-02-21	64.32	60.75	4.21	5735738	Upward Expansion	79	78
2025-02-14	63.08	60.46	2.16	6058519	Upward Expansion	67	67
2025-02-07	62.84	60.19	4.53	6130382	Upward Expansion	65	58
2025-01-31	63.38	59.94	5.92	6112851	Deceleration	72	45
2025-01-24	61.00	59.66	2.41	5514829	Deceleration	32	16
2025-01-17	61.07	59.41	5.55	6122254	Deceleration	23	12
2025-01-10	60.49	59.21	8.56	6127217	Deceleration	19	12
2025-01-03	60.81	59.04	11.58	2575764	Deceleration	22	13
2024-12-27	60.85	58.89	10.81	1952834	Deceleration	33	17
2024-12-20	60.19	58.71	11.18	6719036	Deceleration	34	18
2024-12-13	61.28	58.56	11.50	5021064	Deceleration	40	26
2024-12-06	60.92	58.39	10.98	4812475	Deceleration	40	27
2024-11-29	60.73	58.22	13.89	6805538	Upward Expansion	44	31
2024-11-22	61.49	58.01	15.34	6194566	Upward Expansion	58	43
2024-11-15	61.03	57.72	14.60	6531075	Upward Expansion	60	47
2024-11-08	61.54	57.48	14.82	5354590	Upward Expansion	62	51
2024-11-01	62.05	57.17	14.97	6371998	Upward Expansion	71	55
2024-10-25	61.79	56.86	13.45	5487919	Upward Expansion	70	52
2024-10-18	60.87	56.61	10.32	5372955	Upward Expansion	64	53
2024-10-11	60.98	56.38	11.27	4071950	Upward Expansion	67	59
2024-10-04	60.13	56.14	10.58	5708559	Upward Expansion	66	76
2024-09-27	61.58	55.91	10.00	5378347	Upward Expansion	76	88
2024-09-20	60.55	55.63	12.74	7152629	Upward Expansion	70	84
2024-09-13	61.13	55.45	14.79	5491625	Upward Expansion	80	84
2024-09-06	61.26	55.26	17.30	6576143	Upward Expansion	87	80
2024-08-30	58.99	55.06	9.31	4663964	Upward Expansion	77	65
2024-08-23	57.13	54.93	6.92	4190534	Upward Expansion	62	62
2024-08-16	56.83	54.88	8.42	4001963	Upward Expansion	61	59
2024-08-09	56.45	54.85	10.65	6635309	Upward Expansion	56	53
2024-08-02	57.80	54.81	13.90	7991689	Balance	71	55
2024-07-26	55.46	54.71	5.77	4836119	Balance	47	22
2024-07-19	54.95	54.63	4.73	5409629	Balance	28	15
2024-07-12	55.47	54.56	3.24	4612748	Upward Expansion	34	18
2024-07-05	55.00	54.46	3.12	5646585	Upward Expansion	27	17
2024-06-28	53.61	54.42	3.18	6457978	Upward Expansion	19	10
2024-06-21	54.99	54.40	3.84	10228444	Upward Expansion	50	29
2024-06-14	55.23	54.35	6.08	6614821	Upward Expansion	56	46
2024-06-07	56.38	54.25	1.69	4874514	Upward Expansion	68	68
2024-05-31	55.53	54.10	0.37	5441293	Upward Expansion	58	64
2024-05-24	55.59	53.98	-0.81	3471997	Upward Expansion	58	57
2024-05-17	56.30	53.79	-0.49	4832568	Deceleration	64	46
2024-05-10	55.89	53.55	-1.89	4798617	Deceleration	49	28
2024-05-03	54.23	53.31	-1.78	5958973	Deceleration	14	10
2024-04-26	52.83	53.06	-5.96	5514584	Deceleration	-0	15
2024-04-19	53.86	52.87	-3.46	6766896	Deceleration	7	13
2024-04-12	52.36	52.68	-6.07	4348007	Deceleration	-8	17
2024-04-05	52.54	52.56	-6.42	4367374	Deceleration	-5	10
2024-03-29	54.27	52.43	-5.20	3996282	Deceleration	15	13
2024-03-22	53.98	52.24	-5.15	3928565	Deceleration	15	19
2024-03-15	54.00	52.06	-5.35	6721626	Deceleration	27	23
2024-03-08	53.23	51.86	-5.19	5030886	Deceleration	31	21
2024-03-01	53.21	51.74	-4.13	6577474	Upward Expansion	42	30
2024-02-23	55.01	51.60	-1.20	5930956	Upward Expansion	59	48
2024-02-16	55.54	51.47	2.41	4273500	Upward Expansion	66	59
2024-02-09	55.17	51.33	3.59	3956957	Upward Expansion	65	74
2024-02-02	55.22	51.17	4.74	5352618	Upward Expansion	67	86
2024-01-26	55.54	51.00	5.09	4862551	Upward Expansion	72	88
2024-01-19	55.82	50.84	9.73	5000088	Upward Expansion	79	86
2024-01-12	55.16	50.68	7.47	4866715	Upward Expansion	78	77
2024-01-05	54.83	50.51	7.82	4423884	Upward Expansion	77	54
2023-12-29	53.17	50.30	3.16	1426134	Upward Expansion	63	48
2023-12-22	52.84	50.22	2.29	4222272	Upward Expansion	61	49
2023-12-15	52.54	50.18	1.39	7669930	Upward Expansion	64	65
2023-12-08	53.66	50.21	4.62	4951719	Rotation Up	74	80
2023-12-01	53.09	50.20	6.21	5567276	Rotation Up	44	69
2023-11-24	53.57	50.20	8.13	3749545	Rotation Up	53	72
2023-11-17	52.14	50.16	6.33	5458100	Rotation Up	34	58
2023-11-10	51.98	50.18	9.05	4398444	Downward Expansion	33	38
2023-11-03	51.69	50.16	8.66	5965676	Downward Expansion	11	23
2023-10-27	49.99	50.18	9.13	5951862	Downward Expansion	-25	14
2023-10-20	49.02	50.18	6.81	5464941	Downward Expansion	-52	33
2023-10-13	48.93	50.19	3.84	6616182	Downward Expansion	-57	41

Price vs TrendBelow-10.1%

Trend directionFalling-2.8%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-6.5%

Fair Value directionMoving away-25.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-10.4%

Relative strength directionWeakening-10.7%

Price momentumNegative-11.6%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.05×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-80 / ±100

-35.4 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

92 /100

+49.4 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

BN Directional State ↗ BN Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance11

Rotation Up8

Upward Expansion22

Deceleration37

Rotation Down86

Downward Expansion100

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 5%Rotation Up 7%Upward Expansion 46%Deceleration 21%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 15%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-09-25	2026-10-02	New	-0.7%
Rotation Down	2026-09-11	2026-09-18	New	-1.4%
Deceleration	2026-08-14	2026-09-04	New	-5.2%
Rotation Up	2026-06-26	2026-08-07	Developing	-5.4%
Downward Expansion	2026-02-27	2026-06-19	Established	-7.3%
Rotation Down	2026-01-23	2026-02-20	Developing	+9.0%
Deceleration	2025-12-19	2026-01-16	Developing	-3.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-12	2025-12-12	Established	+2.0%
Balance	2025-08-15	2025-09-05	New	+4.2%
Rotation Down	2025-07-25	2025-08-08	New	+7.7%
Deceleration	2025-06-27	2025-07-18	New	-2.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-07	2025-06-20	Established	+10.1%
Deceleration	2024-12-06	2025-01-31	Developing	+4.0%
Upward Expansion	2024-08-09	2024-11-29	Established	+7.6%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing50

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution36

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^FCHI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 95/100
Current Relative Strength: -10.42
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -11.6%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -10.8%
Consumer Defensive regime cohort: 84th percentile19 in cohort

Test BN trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume2.25×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.05×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 5

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore BN Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 60.13falling

Slow Activity EUR 65.33falling

Trend Reference EUR 65.75-10.1% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 63.24-6.5% close margin

Structural low EUR 57.26shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +3.9%

Annualized volatility +22.4%

From structural high -23.7%

From structural low +3.2%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^FCHI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	16	+2.2%-7.9% to +12.2%	+62.5%	+37.5%	+0.2%	+75.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	6	+3.3%-13.2% to +10.0%	+66.7%	+33.3%	+2.5%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	+6.8%-8.3% to +25.7%	+75.0%	+25.0%	-0.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	+5.6%-8.0% to +19.3%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+4.5%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

BN Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map