Weekly structural research · SHH · Industrials

603278 Stage Analysis

Shandong Daye Co., Ltd.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close CNY 10.10Tenure EstablishedBenchmark 000001.SS

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction -32−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 24/100directional strength

Maturity 79/100lifecycle context

Confidence 69/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance -33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +2.7%CNY 9.83 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	10.10	10.91	-5.35	86211563	Downward Expansion	-32	24
2026-10-02	10.27	10.96	-4.53	208088129	Downward Expansion	-40	24
2026-09-25	9.80	11.01	-10.06	32420680	Downward Expansion	-48	37
2026-09-18	9.08	11.10	-17.40	26145000	Downward Expansion	-52	44
2026-09-11	9.13	11.21	-16.72	37289402	Downward Expansion	-50	50
2026-09-04	9.21	11.33	-17.05	6352300	Downward Expansion	-50	49
2026-08-28	9.13	11.44	-18.40	6018100	Downward Expansion	-62	57
2026-08-21	9.06	11.58	-18.32	8254241	Downward Expansion	-64	63
2026-08-14	9.53	11.70	-14.91	12710100	Downward Expansion	-63	69
2026-08-07	9.54	11.92	-15.35	15215800	Downward Expansion	-64	75
2026-07-31	8.65	12.17	-21.30	14008800	Downward Expansion	-69	76
2026-07-24	8.21	12.31	-25.22	9457400	Downward Expansion	-75	74
2026-07-17	8.68	12.36	-20.23	15591284	Downward Expansion	-75	66
2026-07-10	10.05	12.40	-13.20	30218080	Balance	-64	46
2026-07-03	12.11	12.38	3.32	29442480	Balance	-12	18
2026-06-26	10.81	12.29	-7.19	14738100	Balance	-24	23
2026-06-19	12.54	12.24	6.06	101731200	Balance	23	20
2026-06-12	11.83	12.14	1.82	34927585	Upward Expansion	20	15
2026-06-05	12.85	12.07	10.85	46955426	Upward Expansion	50	36
2026-05-29	12.19	11.98	4.43	221549507	Upward Expansion	52	57
2026-05-22	14.18	11.92	20.34	368931925	Upward Expansion	61	73
2026-05-15	16.96	11.78	43.51	454782732	Rotation Up	91	88
2026-05-08	14.91	11.57	25.71	121597244	Rotation Up	70	49
2026-05-01	11.20	11.43	-3.61	91891433	Rotation Down	-0	10
2026-04-24	12.45	11.41	7.99	275796991	Rotation Down	32	19
2026-04-17	12.01	11.37	5.15	51142320	Rotation Down	-14	32
2026-04-10	10.79	11.33	-3.86	24696965	Rotation Down	-21	46
2026-04-03	10.49	11.31	-4.00	30775098	Deceleration	-24	35
2026-03-27	10.81	11.30	-2.08	36897033	Deceleration	-19	23
2026-03-20	10.83	11.30	-3.49	29908720	Deceleration	0	12
2026-03-13	11.38	11.30	-2.45	33262400	Deceleration	20	15
2026-03-06	11.79	11.26	-0.48	51421821	Deceleration	31	19
2026-02-27	12.60	11.20	4.72	37412520	Deceleration	33	21
2026-02-13	12.46	11.12	5.52	54061673	Deceleration	36	20
2026-02-06	12.73	11.04	8.07	70598086	Upward Expansion	41	24
2026-01-30	12.41	10.92	4.14	90089393	Upward Expansion	58	45
2026-01-23	13.31	10.81	11.47	139390802	Upward Expansion	62	78
2026-01-16	12.73	10.66	7.74	306364214	Upward Expansion	63	81
2026-01-09	16.11	10.53	36.21	504434236	Upward Expansion	86	94
2026-01-02	17.04	10.29	50.99	174654068	Rotation Up	90	91
2025-12-26	12.80	10.03	15.11	172163966	Rotation Up	64	41
2025-12-19	9.62	9.91	-11.32	86617343	Balance	-24	18
2025-12-12	9.86	9.90	-9.13	219412368	Rotation Down	-26	24
2025-12-05	9.72	9.91	-10.88	37910164	Rotation Down	-23	44
2025-11-28	9.41	9.93	-14.15	23430752	Rotation Down	-25	48
2025-11-21	9.05	9.94	-16.25	29870213	Balance	-36	44
2025-11-14	9.68	9.94	-13.83	33320600	Balance	-21	21
2025-11-07	9.82	9.91	-12.48	31004193	Balance	1	13
2025-10-31	10.01	9.88	-9.48	46897525	Balance	19	14
2025-10-24	10.38	9.85	-5.63	32828934	Upward Expansion	31	16
2025-10-17	10.02	9.84	-5.80	57568800	Upward Expansion	32	18
2025-10-10	10.73	9.90	-0.02	32473380	Upward Expansion	52	35
2025-10-03	10.64	9.93	0.20	35341138	Rotation Up	54	43
2025-09-26	10.76	10.03	3.38	109150371	Rotation Up	28	29
2025-09-19	11.20	10.09	8.53	220052031	Rotation Up	43	33
2025-09-12	10.85	10.07	4.54	90276466	Rotation Up	40	31
2025-09-05	10.09	10.08	-0.65	62016512	Rotation Up	30	30
2025-08-29	10.17	10.06	-0.49	52828224	Rotation Up	26	51
2025-08-22	10.70	10.01	6.18	74729110	Rotation Up	36	63
2025-08-15	10.79	9.97	11.66	69484222	Rotation Up	41	62
2025-08-08	10.47	9.89	11.01	54192244	Balance	34	44
2025-08-01	9.99	9.80	8.92	47998725	Balance	18	23
2025-07-25	10.08	9.72	9.13	107342024	Balance	-11	14
2025-07-18	9.91	9.65	9.89	102656238	Balance	-25	13
2025-07-11	9.25	9.60	4.07	38792578	Downward Expansion	-25	31
2025-07-04	8.98	9.61	2.76	35955261	Downward Expansion	-28	42
2025-06-27	9.08	9.73	5.89	35371500	Balance	-57	52
2025-06-20	8.74	9.69	4.33	29607069	Balance	-34	45
2025-06-13	8.88	9.65	5.52	35021560	Balance	-30	37
2025-06-06	9.26	9.57	9.93	22267600	Balance	-11	14
2025-05-30	9.06	9.48	9.05	35838300	Balance	15	9
2025-05-23	9.34	9.39	12.50	65064678	Balance	21	12
2025-05-16	10.36	9.29	24.24	90068309	Balance	27	13
2025-05-09	10.19	9.13	23.41	139863992	Balance	10	10
2025-05-02	9.68	8.98	19.76	65718750	Balance	4	15
2025-04-25	8.99	8.87	10.70	105885325	Balance	2	19
2025-04-18	8.86	8.77	9.52	55873617	Balance	10	22
2025-04-11	8.97	8.64	11.87	73057387	Upward Expansion	16	19
2025-04-04	9.17	8.52	10.31	67302141	Upward Expansion	29	18
2025-03-28	9.87	8.38	17.71	122714994	Upward Expansion	56	41
2025-03-21	11.93	8.23	41.13	196340125	Upward Expansion	63	67
2025-03-14	11.61	8.00	35.01	184054764	Upward Expansion	65	74
2025-03-07	13.57	7.79	60.12	262529503	Upward Expansion	84	85
2025-02-28	12.58	7.53	51.27	264170660	Upward Expansion	80	75
2025-02-21	10.66	7.35	26.58	254429870	Upward Expansion	67	62
2025-02-14	11.03	7.17	32.28	255697621	Upward Expansion	74	60
2025-02-07	9.72	6.98	18.77	103416941	Upward Expansion	63	41
2025-01-31	8.62	6.84	6.88	26001473	Deceleration	41	27
2025-01-24	9.37	6.74	15.41	201671303	Deceleration	49	26
2025-01-17	8.37	6.63	2.81	133350052	Deceleration	33	22
2025-01-10	7.97	6.61	-0.92	102529938	Deceleration	36	24
2025-01-03	7.41	6.59	-10.13	58264152	Upward Expansion	43	29
2024-12-27	7.97	6.59	-9.99	104928920	Upward Expansion	63	59
2024-12-20	8.62	6.59	-3.05	123956238	Upward Expansion	65	81
2024-12-13	9.41	6.57	3.92	273540875	Upward Expansion	67	86
2024-12-06	12.73	6.55	38.72	143058278	Rotation Up	99	98
2024-11-29	7.90	6.41	-12.22	89580769	Rotation Up	59	73
2024-11-22	7.29	6.45	-18.71	175283483	Rotation Up	43	60
2024-11-15	6.60	6.51	-28.86	71696242	Rotation Up	11	39
2024-11-08	6.57	6.61	-32.55	73204074	Balance	13	24
2024-11-01	6.30	6.73	-32.64	94127800	Balance	-3	9
2024-10-25	6.24	6.88	-34.56	78464557	Downward Expansion	-9	12
2024-10-18	5.74	7.02	-39.70	43971392	Downward Expansion	-29	20
2024-10-11	5.68	7.20	-40.16	74115142	Downward Expansion	-34	20
2024-10-04	6.35	7.35	-36.21	24888320	Downward Expansion	-39	25
2024-09-27	5.90	7.50	-36.54	46627590	Downward Expansion	-58	44
2024-09-20	5.18	7.62	-37.73	19204220	Downward Expansion	-63	53
2024-09-13	5.10	7.76	-38.67	42114584	Downward Expansion	-67	61
2024-09-06	5.21	7.84	-39.43	39189726	Downward Expansion	-65	65
2024-08-30	5.25	7.95	-41.21	36669840	Downward Expansion	-68	58
2024-08-23	5.01	8.11	-44.86	51845189	Downward Expansion	-75	55
2024-08-16	5.49	8.29	-40.82	92643987	Downward Expansion	-70	53
2024-08-09	5.56	8.49	-40.37	194793339	Downward Expansion	-72	57
2024-08-02	7.21	8.70	-24.55	28123545	Downward Expansion	-66	64
2024-07-26	5.29	8.87	-44.77	22390924	Downward Expansion	-74	90
2024-07-19	5.35	9.10	-46.44	32759354	Downward Expansion	-79	92
2024-07-12	5.43	9.33	-45.99	49411063	Downward Expansion	-84	91
2024-07-05	5.73	9.56	-43.14	35076616	Downward Expansion	-86	91
2024-06-28	6.17	9.80	-39.66	75560478	Downward Expansion	-87	89
2024-06-21	7.62	10.04	-26.71	51587315	Downward Expansion	-66	78
2024-06-14	7.36	10.23	-30.22	14886021	Downward Expansion	-76	85
2024-06-07	7.36	10.37	-30.84	29974703	Downward Expansion	-80	81
2024-05-31	7.95	10.51	-26.35	22222483	Downward Expansion	-74	75
2024-05-24	8.10	10.61	-24.96	20228663	Downward Expansion	-74	73
2024-05-17	8.80	10.67	-20.22	26608482	Downward Expansion	-64	66
2024-05-10	8.67	10.73	-21.25	27321845	Downward Expansion	-66	64
2024-05-03	9.12	10.80	-15.66	9958399	Balance	-59	50
2024-04-26	9.10	10.85	-15.13	25459234	Balance	-57	34
2024-04-19	9.46	10.90	-10.87	30315685	Balance	-53	24
2024-04-12	10.14	10.97	-2.59	23068306	Balance	-29	18
2024-04-05	10.74	11.02	1.94	16752317	Balance	-24	19
2024-03-29	10.57	11.02	1.80	35036313	Balance	-25	22
2024-03-22	11.21	11.09	8.42	53501059	Downward Expansion	-23	21
2024-03-15	10.09	11.11	-1.99	72086538	Downward Expansion	-39	22
2024-03-08	10.87	11.19	6.36	45228428	Downward Expansion	-57	42
2024-03-01	9.57	11.22	-5.12	38697551	Downward Expansion	-64	75
2024-02-23	9.37	11.29	-6.07	44962679	Downward Expansion	-66	78
2024-02-09	7.33	11.40	-22.57	59440643	Downward Expansion	-89	88
2024-02-02	8.59	11.53	-4.59	35558837	Downward Expansion	-83	78
2024-01-26	9.98	11.61	4.55	31652789	Deceleration	-34	39
2024-01-19	10.41	11.64	12.83	28579856	Deceleration	-18	19
2024-01-12	11.52	11.65	23.79	31753502	Deceleration	21	14
2024-01-05	11.77	11.60	25.76	28318881	Deceleration	33	17
2023-12-29	12.51	11.52	33.04	28990018	Deceleration	42	22
2023-12-22	12.24	11.40	34.31	36940029	Upward Expansion	52	30
2023-12-15	12.11	11.29	33.18	41574237	Upward Expansion	57	43
2023-12-08	12.27	11.17	35.14	54178829	Upward Expansion	63	70
2023-12-01	12.89	11.03	40.65	65475495	Upward Expansion	64	74
2023-11-24	13.45	10.86	47.94	187001056	Upward Expansion	76	71
2023-11-17	13.26	10.67	47.09	40050410	Deceleration	75	50
2023-11-10	11.70	10.50	32.07	28419093	Deceleration	41	22
2023-11-03	11.61	10.38	32.64	23772872	Deceleration	30	17
2023-10-27	10.74	10.26	24.27	12511389	Deceleration	2	21
2023-10-20	10.11	10.18	19.24	10442298	Deceleration	-9	23
2023-10-13	10.43	10.11	19.58	12006730	Deceleration	-1	16
2023-09-29	10.97	10.03	25.66	9504688	Deceleration	12	16

Price vs TrendBelow-7.5%

Trend directionFalling-10.3%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+2.7%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+2.5%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-5.3%

Relative strength directionImproving+7.8%

Price momentumNegative-6.4%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.44×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-32 / ±100

+17.8 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

24 /100

-26.5 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

603278 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance36

Rotation Up32

Upward Expansion20

Deceleration46

Rotation Down25

Downward Expansion58

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-29 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 21%Rotation Up 10%Upward Expansion 20%Deceleration 15%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 30%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-07-17	2026-10-09	Established	+16.4%
Balance	2026-06-19	2026-07-10	New	-19.9%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-22	2026-06-12	New	-16.6%
Rotation Up	2026-05-08	2026-05-15	New	+13.7%
Rotation Down	2026-04-10	2026-05-01	New	+3.8%
Deceleration	2026-02-13	2026-04-03	Developing	-15.8%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-09	2026-02-06	Developing	-21.0%
Rotation Up	2025-12-26	2026-01-02	New	+33.1%
Balance	2025-12-19	2025-12-19	New	+0.0%
Rotation Down	2025-11-28	2025-12-12	New	+4.8%
Balance	2025-10-31	2025-11-21	New	-9.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-10	2025-10-24	New	-3.3%
Rotation Up	2025-08-15	2025-10-03	Developing	-1.4%
Balance	2025-07-18	2025-08-08	New	+5.7%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing51

Stage 2 · Advancing5

Stage 3 · Distribution23

Stage 4 · Declining95

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4C · Repair watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus 000001.SS

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 63/100
Current Relative Strength: -5.35
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -6.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -2.1%
Industrials regime cohort: 17th percentile314 in cohort

Test 603278 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.80×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.44×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 603278 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity CNY 9.88rising

Slow Activity CNY 10.30falling

Trend Reference CNY 10.91-7.5% close margin

Current Fair Value CNY 9.83+2.7% close margin

Structural low CNY 8.18shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +8.0%

Annualized volatility +78.5%

From structural high -44.7%

From structural low +23.5%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs 000001.SS	Regime survived	Read
Near term	23	+1.1%-27.2% to +26.5%	+60.9%	+39.1%	+1.0%	+78.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	8	+0.3%-35.9% to +18.5%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-7.1%	+62.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+0.5%-35.3% to +89.8%	+60.0%	+40.0%	-7.7%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+11.9%-12.6% to +13.1%	+66.7%	+33.3%	-7.9%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

603278 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map