Weekly structural research · SHZ · Industrials

002941 Stage Analysis

Xinjiang Communications Construction Group Co., Ltd.

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close CNY 10.54Tenure NewBenchmark 399001.SZ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction -39−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 35/100directional strength

Maturity 41/100lifecycle context

Confidence 68/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance -16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -16.1%CNY 12.56 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	10.54	12.10	-19.32	18363943	Deceleration	-39	35
2026-09-25	10.40	12.30	-23.43	25780230	Deceleration	-34	31
2026-09-18	10.54	12.51	-24.97	29419910	Deceleration	-25	22
2026-09-11	10.80	12.68	-22.90	37589156	Downward Expansion	-28	25
2026-09-04	10.98	12.86	-22.47	8924600	Downward Expansion	-39	32
2026-08-28	10.96	13.03	-25.61	9440700	Downward Expansion	-41	37
2026-08-21	10.29	13.26	-31.47	6292800	Downward Expansion	-45	41
2026-08-14	10.63	13.47	-31.32	7840750	Downward Expansion	-49	48
2026-08-07	10.68	13.68	-31.40	14294984	Downward Expansion	-53	57
2026-07-31	10.52	13.85	-29.22	12706026	Downward Expansion	-66	66
2026-07-24	9.63	14.04	-36.47	9825539	Downward Expansion	-68	74
2026-07-17	9.44	14.26	-37.80	11345800	Downward Expansion	-74	90
2026-07-10	9.51	14.48	-43.28	10675560	Downward Expansion	-77	92
2026-07-03	9.69	14.71	-44.63	12508130	Downward Expansion	-79	92
2026-06-26	9.54	14.94	-46.57	12220765	Downward Expansion	-89	96
2026-06-19	10.40	15.15	-43.09	43021286	Downward Expansion	-85	94
2026-06-12	10.75	15.37	-37.45	9981933	Downward Expansion	-87	93
2026-06-05	11.48	15.60	-35.19	8547400	Downward Expansion	-86	92
2026-05-29	12.14	15.85	-33.08	48221750	Downward Expansion	-83	87
2026-05-22	13.39	16.07	-26.67	61093674	Downward Expansion	-71	80
2026-05-15	13.24	16.28	-27.61	55611013	Downward Expansion	-79	79
2026-05-08	14.08	16.49	-23.33	35958357	Downward Expansion	-71	62
2026-05-01	13.90	16.56	-22.27	71941424	Downward Expansion	-74	42
2026-04-24	15.78	16.60	-11.07	57368265	Downward Expansion	-49	27
2026-04-17	15.97	16.64	-9.72	58322942	Downward Expansion	-51	33
2026-04-10	15.63	16.66	-8.17	58715049	Downward Expansion	-55	57
2026-04-03	15.08	16.65	-4.98	74197243	Downward Expansion	-62	57
2026-03-27	15.54	16.67	-4.79	110086376	Downward Expansion	-56	46
2026-03-20	14.80	16.67	-9.88	84856945	Balance	-71	46
2026-03-13	16.60	16.72	-1.79	89220404	Balance	-44	21
2026-03-06	16.55	16.63	-1.16	94780992	Balance	-19	24
2026-02-27	16.63	16.48	-2.79	62292389	Balance	-20	23
2026-02-13	15.88	16.32	-4.35	63307906	Deceleration	-28	15
2026-02-06	15.99	16.18	-2.29	68275642	Deceleration	11	10
2026-01-30	16.32	16.02	-2.20	140218719	Deceleration	23	18
2026-01-23	17.69	15.84	4.47	156407634	Deceleration	46	26
2026-01-16	16.64	15.62	-0.32	131377082	Deceleration	21	11
2026-01-09	16.82	15.42	2.11	119961012	Deceleration	10	9
2026-01-02	15.85	15.24	0.72	66450201	Deceleration	4	12
2025-12-26	16.36	15.10	3.58	77699178	Deceleration	11	13
2025-12-19	16.26	14.94	6.75	97137256	Deceleration	13	14
2025-12-12	15.93	14.77	3.89	69693597	Deceleration	11	17
2025-12-05	16.40	14.61	7.92	82157931	Deceleration	28	24
2025-11-28	16.61	14.43	10.86	144247576	Deceleration	33	25
2025-11-21	15.92	14.24	10.20	99773602	Upward Expansion	41	25
2025-11-14	16.97	14.08	11.65	103082983	Upward Expansion	58	42
2025-11-07	17.66	13.87	14.84	208453796	Upward Expansion	63	52
2025-10-31	18.92	13.66	23.64	278186105	Upward Expansion	66	67
2025-10-24	18.66	13.39	23.50	397312022	Upward Expansion	67	61
2025-10-17	19.80	13.12	38.07	665461854	Upward Expansion	82	64
2025-10-10	19.50	12.83	30.25	164002380	Upward Expansion	86	64
2025-10-03	16.12	12.55	7.01	165093093	Upward Expansion	64	53
2025-09-26	15.13	12.40	3.10	359989723	Upward Expansion	63	56
2025-09-19	16.91	12.28	16.64	302246237	Upward Expansion	78	69
2025-09-12	16.72	12.09	16.98	291596350	Upward Expansion	81	85
2025-09-05	15.26	11.92	9.93	244362378	Upward Expansion	68	87
2025-08-29	15.69	11.78	12.24	252648643	Upward Expansion	78	92
2025-08-22	15.58	11.61	16.39	334676980	Upward Expansion	86	94
2025-08-15	16.30	11.44	27.63	439795238	Upward Expansion	97	95
2025-08-08	13.81	11.25	13.69	95501608	Upward Expansion	90	86
2025-08-01	11.99	11.13	0.25	64097000	Upward Expansion	64	62
2025-07-25	12.01	11.08	-1.07	221524904	Balance	64	52
2025-07-18	11.51	11.07	-2.83	63001866	Balance	51	27
2025-07-11	11.32	11.07	-2.31	33231706	Balance	29	19
2025-07-04	11.00	11.11	-3.26	26729978	Balance	-7	12
2025-06-27	11.10	11.16	-1.11	44250789	Balance	2	2
2025-06-20	10.63	11.21	-1.76	54854800	Balance	-27	15
2025-06-13	11.25	11.26	2.59	67132367	Balance	25	34
2025-06-06	11.77	11.29	6.80	53222012	Balance	38	40
2025-05-30	11.53	11.32	6.27	33027501	Balance	2	9
2025-05-23	11.12	11.31	1.52	39791850	Balance	-27	12
2025-05-16	11.13	11.31	1.02	55219105	Balance	-30	13
2025-05-09	11.05	11.31	0.69	32026529	Balance	-35	17
2025-05-02	10.89	11.31	1.46	29985652	Balance	-48	22
2025-04-25	11.18	11.31	3.86	50447835	Balance	-47	27
2025-04-18	10.70	11.27	0.77	34992841	Balance	-56	49
2025-04-11	11.10	11.22	3.76	76726134	Balance	-11	23
2025-04-04	10.85	11.15	-3.85	20304659	Balance	-23	27
2025-03-28	10.66	11.09	-7.90	29976206	Balance	-27	16
2025-03-21	11.06	11.07	-5.51	33675569	Balance	16	11
2025-03-14	11.28	11.01	-6.53	37716172	Deceleration	34	20
2025-03-07	11.38	10.94	-4.77	84135244	Deceleration	35	25
2025-02-28	11.71	10.86	-0.18	114475436	Deceleration	43	28
2025-02-21	11.05	10.76	-9.27	76953330	Deceleration	26	17
2025-02-14	11.69	10.67	-2.26	79181986	Deceleration	33	17
2025-02-07	11.05	10.57	-6.31	33522416	Deceleration	3	18
2025-01-31	10.58	10.49	-6.96	5941600	Deceleration	0	24
2025-01-24	10.58	10.43	-8.73	28387202	Deceleration	-0	24
2025-01-17	10.65	10.40	-7.36	34951780	Deceleration	4	23
2025-01-10	10.06	10.39	-9.67	32947778	Deceleration	4	19
2025-01-03	10.36	10.38	-8.46	40753686	Deceleration	21	17
2024-12-27	11.78	10.37	-3.81	92088873	Upward Expansion	44	31
2024-12-20	11.70	10.34	-4.76	57105218	Upward Expansion	58	42
2024-12-13	12.49	10.31	0.49	175832971	Upward Expansion	64	50
2024-12-06	12.41	10.27	-1.25	75007501	Upward Expansion	63	66
2024-11-29	12.63	10.23	1.74	84376032	Upward Expansion	71	75
2024-11-22	12.04	10.17	-1.71	103181655	Upward Expansion	63	66
2024-11-15	12.28	10.14	-3.11	117366901	Upward Expansion	71	70
2024-11-08	12.72	10.09	-3.83	234274009	Rotation Up	83	73
2024-11-01	11.05	10.04	-11.29	89941623	Rotation Up	36	57
2024-10-25	11.16	10.05	-12.47	91785675	Rotation Up	38	62
2024-10-18	11.23	10.05	-10.36	203548658	Rotation Up	33	56
2024-10-11	10.86	10.06	-11.61	154571465	Downward Expansion	30	42
2024-10-04	11.04	10.09	-15.25	38703618	Downward Expansion	17	21
2024-09-27	10.03	10.10	-15.58	84864952	Downward Expansion	-8	8
2024-09-20	9.07	10.15	-10.89	38042600	Downward Expansion	-37	19
2024-09-13	8.93	10.23	-11.85	41933090	Downward Expansion	-39	22
2024-09-06	9.22	10.29	-11.28	90587900	Downward Expansion	-30	21
2024-08-30	9.99	10.33	-6.92	243970460	Downward Expansion	-29	21
2024-08-23	9.37	10.40	-11.38	44181025	Downward Expansion	-45	35
2024-08-16	9.01	10.47	-16.94	86921661	Downward Expansion	-61	52
2024-08-09	8.95	10.57	-18.34	27489904	Downward Expansion	-65	62
2024-08-02	8.84	10.68	-21.08	29066800	Downward Expansion	-67	83
2024-07-26	8.48	10.81	-24.98	19417128	Downward Expansion	-76	90
2024-07-19	8.48	10.94	-27.89	16352610	Downward Expansion	-84	92
2024-07-12	8.76	11.11	-25.56	23896001	Downward Expansion	-83	89
2024-07-05	8.87	11.26	-23.68	38148464	Downward Expansion	-88	88
2024-06-28	9.67	11.42	-18.50	25616287	Downward Expansion	-77	82
2024-06-21	10.11	11.56	-17.22	24522016	Downward Expansion	-67	75
2024-06-14	9.83	11.70	-21.41	20643305	Downward Expansion	-79	74
2024-06-07	10.08	11.85	-19.88	34783934	Downward Expansion	-76	50
2024-05-31	10.80	12.00	-15.43	27198825	Downward Expansion	-61	36
2024-05-24	10.94	12.14	-15.22	37472110	Downward Expansion	-58	35
2024-05-17	11.35	12.25	-15.12	36009645	Downward Expansion	-53	35
2024-05-10	11.02	12.45	-18.39	42894762	Downward Expansion	-56	41
2024-05-03	10.94	12.72	-18.29	26366703	Downward Expansion	-59	40
2024-04-26	11.05	12.93	-16.90	49506233	Downward Expansion	-55	37
2024-04-19	10.97	13.11	-16.22	45364335	Downward Expansion	-58	39
2024-04-12	10.99	13.28	-15.72	36906610	Downward Expansion	-59	37
2024-04-05	11.40	13.49	-15.46	19239283	Downward Expansion	-40	28
2024-03-29	11.16	13.62	-16.12	35852473	Downward Expansion	-47	33
2024-03-22	11.75	13.78	-13.43	63139800	Downward Expansion	-41	31
2024-03-15	11.67	13.92	-14.34	47240159	Downward Expansion	-46	38
2024-03-08	11.34	14.07	-14.62	40383710	Downward Expansion	-59	52
2024-03-01	11.59	14.16	-13.24	53471502	Downward Expansion	-63	59
2024-02-23	11.34	14.26	-11.54	52591670	Downward Expansion	-65	63
2024-02-09	10.70	14.36	-13.97	59078548	Downward Expansion	-77	84
2024-02-02	10.56	14.49	-6.83	96892988	Downward Expansion	-88	93
2024-01-26	12.14	14.63	-1.18	77802561	Downward Expansion	-67	86
2024-01-19	11.34	14.70	-7.54	29474272	Downward Expansion	-86	93
2024-01-12	11.93	14.85	-4.65	29333607	Downward Expansion	-78	87
2024-01-05	12.32	14.96	-2.44	21637257	Downward Expansion	-73	77
2023-12-29	12.61	15.06	-4.08	33326393	Downward Expansion	-70	71
2023-12-22	12.62	15.14	-0.57	28698108	Downward Expansion	-73	69
2023-12-15	13.37	15.24	3.82	28232011	Downward Expansion	-65	61
2023-12-08	13.37	15.36	2.36	33907537	Downward Expansion	-67	60
2023-12-01	13.72	15.56	3.55	35836390	Downward Expansion	-64	58
2023-11-24	13.95	15.71	4.47	51487397	Downward Expansion	-52	53
2023-11-17	14.27	15.84	5.80	58271596	Downward Expansion	-48	47
2023-11-10	14.17	15.95	5.63	86296933	Balance	-49	37
2023-11-03	14.60	15.99	10.73	178207943	Balance	-15	18
2023-10-27	14.94	15.98	14.95	124006360	Balance	-8	5
2023-10-20	14.45	15.99	14.25	154655514	Upward Expansion	22	16
2023-10-13	17.34	16.03	31.20	207292651	Upward Expansion	56	49
2023-09-29	19.11	15.89	45.12	197363100	Upward Expansion	74	59
2023-09-22	17.07	15.72	30.04	142075439	Balance	50	42

Price vs TrendBelow-12.9%

Trend directionFalling-13.9%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-16.1%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+9.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-19.3%

Relative strength directionImproving+25.3%

Price momentumNegative-30.1%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.57×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-39 / ±100

-0.2 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

35 /100

+3.4 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

002941 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance39

Rotation Up27

Upward Expansion17

Deceleration67

Rotation Down34

Downward Expansion62

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-22 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 17%Rotation Up 3%Upward Expansion 17%Deceleration 17%Downward Expansion 46%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-09-18	2026-10-02	New	+0.0%
Downward Expansion	2026-03-27	2026-09-11	Established	-30.5%
Balance	2026-02-27	2026-03-20	New	-11.0%
Deceleration	2025-11-28	2026-02-13	Developing	-4.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-01	2025-11-21	Established	+32.8%
Balance	2025-03-21	2025-07-25	Established	+8.6%
Deceleration	2025-01-03	2025-03-14	Developing	+8.9%
Upward Expansion	2024-11-15	2024-12-27	Developing	-4.1%
Rotation Up	2024-10-18	2024-11-08	New	+13.3%
Downward Expansion	2023-11-17	2024-10-11	Extended	-23.9%
Balance	2023-10-27	2023-11-10	New	-5.1%
Upward Expansion	2023-09-29	2023-10-20	New	-24.4%
Balance	2023-09-15	2023-09-22	New	+4.3%
Deceleration	2023-06-02	2023-09-08	Established	+6.1%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing70

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution0

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus 399001.SZ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 94/100
Current Relative Strength: -19.32
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -30.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -26.6%
Industrials regime cohort: 86th percentile64 in cohort

Test 002941 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.92×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.57×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 002941 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity CNY 10.57falling

Slow Activity CNY 11.03falling

Trend Reference CNY 12.10-12.9% close margin

Current Fair Value CNY 12.56-16.1% close margin

Structural low CNY 9.18shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +4.7%

Annualized volatility +34.1%

From structural high -51.2%

From structural low +14.8%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs 399001.SZ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	11	+2.2%-8.9% to +10.9%	+54.5%	+54.5%	-0.4%	+63.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	5	-0.4%-22.0% to +11.9%	+40.0%	+40.0%	+0.0%	+20.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	-8.6%-30.9% to +6.2%	+25.0%	+25.0%	+0.0%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	+19.8%-37.8% to +53.0%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+16.4%	+66.7%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

002941 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map