Weekly structural research · TOR · Financial Services

AGF-B Stage Analysis

AGF Management Limited

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close CAD 15.85Tenure NewBenchmark ^GSPTSE

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Down · Structural failure

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.
A price shock beyond the complete Activity structure bypassed the ordinary persistence gate.

Direction -52−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 53/100directional strength

Maturity 45/100lifecycle context

Confidence 64/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance -50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +32.2%CAD 11.99 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	15.85	19.51	-17.05	2283700	Rotation Down	-52	53
2026-09-18	18.72	19.66	-2.14	1134000	Deceleration	-2	22
2026-09-11	20.25	19.70	6.39	1566400	Deceleration	33	26
2026-09-04	21.90	19.65	12.99	2490200	Upward Expansion	49	43
2026-08-28	22.38	19.52	16.05	848700	Upward Expansion	65	62
2026-08-21	22.08	19.37	15.10	352200	Upward Expansion	67	66
2026-08-14	23.23	19.20	21.58	199700	Upward Expansion	70	88
2026-08-07	23.88	18.98	27.20	269300	Upward Expansion	87	95
2026-07-31	22.60	18.73	25.43	185300	Upward Expansion	73	90
2026-07-24	22.80	18.51	27.02	224500	Upward Expansion	85	94
2026-07-17	22.89	18.29	28.86	251300	Upward Expansion	93	97
2026-07-10	21.85	18.05	23.78	198400	Upward Expansion	86	86
2026-07-03	20.21	17.84	15.41	130000	Upward Expansion	73	71
2026-06-26	19.44	17.65	12.35	263900	Balance	63	54
2026-06-19	20.10	17.46	16.58	99900	Balance	61	40
2026-06-12	18.58	17.25	8.35	306900	Balance	23	16
2026-06-05	17.06	17.08	1.38	161000	Deceleration	-1	7
2026-05-29	17.30	16.97	1.97	622800	Deceleration	6	10
2026-05-22	16.81	16.85	0.16	616800	Deceleration	-17	29
2026-05-15	16.84	16.75	2.51	1243700	Deceleration	-19	35
2026-05-08	17.25	16.63	4.60	2406200	Deceleration	-19	35
2026-05-01	16.08	16.49	-1.66	1968400	Deceleration	-7	30
2026-04-24	15.74	16.43	-3.51	2326000	Deceleration	-8	18
2026-04-17	15.48	16.38	-6.07	2863900	Upward Expansion	13	13
2026-04-10	19.66	16.32	22.04	586400	Upward Expansion	62	50
2026-04-03	20.24	16.10	28.97	866100	Upward Expansion	74	54
2026-03-27	19.52	15.84	30.06	801800	Upward Expansion	69	54
2026-03-20	18.45	15.59	26.63	635100	Upward Expansion	63	61
2026-03-13	18.53	15.37	23.43	720300	Upward Expansion	66	67
2026-03-06	19.62	15.14	29.56	647300	Upward Expansion	68	75
2026-02-27	20.34	14.87	30.46	912000	Upward Expansion	89	93
2026-02-20	19.90	14.58	30.37	1664700	Upward Expansion	93	90
2026-02-13	18.63	14.33	25.64	1173600	Upward Expansion	86	78
2026-02-06	18.05	14.12	24.86	1246900	Upward Expansion	85	73
2026-01-30	17.99	13.93	27.42	1412600	Upward Expansion	91	80
2026-01-23	16.93	13.75	16.21	856100	Upward Expansion	82	81
2026-01-16	16.50	13.61	14.02	547900	Upward Expansion	76	90
2026-01-09	16.59	13.47	16.62	612500	Upward Expansion	85	94
2026-01-02	15.96	13.30	15.39	240900	Upward Expansion	75	91
2025-12-26	16.05	13.15	16.11	149600	Upward Expansion	85	94
2025-12-19	15.90	12.99	16.43	509200	Upward Expansion	87	91
2025-12-12	15.50	12.83	14.76	727300	Upward Expansion	85	77
2025-12-05	14.36	12.68	7.47	458000	Upward Expansion	69	44
2025-11-28	13.93	12.56	4.28	481800	Upward Expansion	62	39
2025-11-21	13.60	12.43	6.06	473600	Upward Expansion	54	36
2025-11-14	13.49	12.30	4.89	367700	Upward Expansion	47	36
2025-11-07	13.83	12.14	9.22	756700	Upward Expansion	64	44
2025-10-31	13.76	11.98	7.54	400700	Upward Expansion	63	44
2025-10-24	13.71	11.81	7.03	424900	Upward Expansion	65	50
2025-10-17	13.29	11.67	4.90	430900	Upward Expansion	63	55
2025-10-10	13.14	11.55	4.76	586300	Upward Expansion	67	81
2025-10-03	14.29	11.42	11.76	538900	Upward Expansion	83	93
2025-09-26	14.04	11.28	12.81	830500	Upward Expansion	84	90
2025-09-19	13.89	11.19	12.16	804700	Upward Expansion	86	82
2025-09-12	13.04	11.09	7.72	412700	Deceleration	74	49
2025-09-05	12.46	11.00	4.44	890200	Deceleration	63	34
2025-08-29	11.96	10.93	2.45	412600	Deceleration	35	21
2025-08-22	11.70	10.89	1.57	557000	Deceleration	32	25
2025-08-15	11.63	10.86	2.90	245200	Deceleration	36	24
2025-08-08	11.68	10.81	4.43	208700	Deceleration	43	34
2025-08-01	11.73	10.74	8.24	470800	Upward Expansion	48	43
2025-07-25	12.33	10.69	12.32	287100	Upward Expansion	62	58
2025-07-18	12.39	10.61	14.17	240900	Upward Expansion	65	75
2025-07-11	12.32	10.53	15.40	256700	Upward Expansion	67	83
2025-07-04	12.42	10.46	16.81	204200	Upward Expansion	72	84
2025-06-27	12.77	10.40	22.39	706700	Upward Expansion	85	88
2025-06-20	12.20	10.33	18.51	378600	Upward Expansion	83	86
2025-06-13	11.58	10.26	13.02	253000	Upward Expansion	73	79
2025-06-06	11.59	10.21	13.92	299300	Rotation Up	77	80
2025-05-30	11.30	10.18	12.70	286700	Rotation Up	45	60
2025-05-23	10.87	10.13	10.08	156300	Rotation Up	26	36
2025-05-16	10.98	10.10	11.21	355000	Downward Expansion	19	29
2025-05-09	10.82	10.06	12.66	346600	Downward Expansion	-6	14
2025-05-02	10.11	10.04	7.07	236500	Downward Expansion	-36	23
2025-04-25	9.60	10.03	3.42	347500	Downward Expansion	-60	56
2025-04-18	8.90	9.99	-1.87	237200	Rotation Down	-66	70
2025-04-11	8.86	9.95	0.46	422100	Rotation Down	-42	60
2025-04-04	8.75	9.90	1.00	361300	Balance	-47	55
2025-03-28	9.50	9.85	2.94	197900	Balance	-23	30
2025-03-21	9.65	9.78	3.87	241800	Balance	1	11
2025-03-14	9.37	9.71	2.87	404200	Upward Expansion	8	6
2025-03-07	10.05	9.64	9.65	509200	Upward Expansion	45	30
2025-02-28	11.35	9.55	21.22	646400	Upward Expansion	76	51
2025-02-21	10.87	9.42	17.75	446600	Upward Expansion	66	44
2025-02-14	10.33	9.31	11.13	202900	Upward Expansion	55	41
2025-02-07	10.27	9.23	11.18	264800	Upward Expansion	56	43
2025-01-31	10.75	9.15	16.37	237900	Deceleration	67	45
2025-01-24	10.72	9.05	16.91	594000	Deceleration	68	40
2025-01-17	10.18	8.95	13.33	302700	Deceleration	40	25
2025-01-10	9.68	8.87	9.46	213600	Deceleration	38	24
2025-01-03	10.08	8.80	12.82	145400	Deceleration	44	34
2024-12-27	10.04	8.72	14.03	70400	Upward Expansion	46	39
2024-12-20	10.08	8.64	15.85	338800	Upward Expansion	60	50
2024-12-13	10.21	8.57	14.74	297500	Upward Expansion	63	55
2024-12-06	10.58	8.49	17.41	266600	Upward Expansion	71	63
2024-11-29	10.56	8.38	17.92	518000	Upward Expansion	73	66
2024-11-22	10.12	8.28	14.55	343400	Upward Expansion	65	64
2024-11-15	10.28	8.19	19.32	448000	Upward Expansion	71	67
2024-11-08	10.45	8.09	22.69	745000	Upward Expansion	81	83
2024-11-01	10.03	7.99	20.85	1852100	Upward Expansion	73	90
2024-10-25	9.74	7.91	16.99	383400	Upward Expansion	68	89
2024-10-18	9.88	7.84	17.56	734000	Upward Expansion	80	93
2024-10-11	10.18	7.75	23.54	705600	Upward Expansion	93	97
2024-10-04	9.78	7.66	20.90	998500	Upward Expansion	91	88
2024-09-27	8.35	7.58	4.69	521700	Balance	71	44
2024-09-20	7.92	7.55	-0.27	430900	Balance	15	8
2024-09-13	7.37	7.52	-5.91	351200	Balance	-24	26
2024-09-06	7.16	7.50	-5.53	192000	Balance	-37	36
2024-08-30	7.46	7.49	-4.10	270400	Balance	-14	28
2024-08-23	7.39	7.48	-4.80	238800	Balance	-15	23
2024-08-16	7.46	7.46	-3.09	238800	Balance	-9	18
2024-08-09	7.18	7.45	-3.76	200900	Balance	-3	13
2024-08-02	7.38	7.45	-0.73	338400	Upward Expansion	22	11
2024-07-26	7.83	7.45	2.56	234900	Upward Expansion	54	32
2024-07-19	7.72	7.42	1.68	343800	Upward Expansion	52	32
2024-07-12	7.89	7.39	4.03	295800	Upward Expansion	58	39
2024-07-05	7.83	7.35	6.24	169700	Upward Expansion	56	34
2024-06-28	7.77	7.31	6.46	393100	Upward Expansion	52	28
2024-06-21	7.81	7.27	8.67	357200	Upward Expansion	57	31
2024-06-14	7.61	7.23	5.74	232400	Upward Expansion	52	34
2024-06-07	7.51	7.19	2.74	198500	Upward Expansion	55	48
2024-05-31	7.67	7.15	3.76	165300	Upward Expansion	58	58
2024-05-24	7.97	7.10	7.86	255700	Upward Expansion	73	55
2024-05-17	7.71	7.03	4.05	236300	Deceleration	65	38
2024-05-10	7.52	6.97	2.39	180100	Deceleration	45	24
2024-05-03	7.39	6.92	2.52	156300	Upward Expansion	41	26
2024-04-26	7.42	6.88	3.02	222400	Upward Expansion	54	37
2024-04-19	7.22	6.84	1.08	223300	Upward Expansion	57	41
2024-04-12	7.58	6.82	5.70	245800	Upward Expansion	65	50
2024-04-05	7.66	6.78	5.15	395100	Upward Expansion	74	56
2024-03-29	7.44	6.75	2.60	245500	Upward Expansion	64	64
2024-03-22	7.35	6.74	2.18	174200	Upward Expansion	61	71
2024-03-15	7.35	6.71	2.72	183000	Upward Expansion	64	69
2024-03-08	7.37	6.70	3.24	243600	Upward Expansion	66	57
2024-03-01	7.57	6.68	6.57	1182100	Deceleration	76	45
2024-02-23	6.91	6.66	-2.36	295700	Deceleration	37	20
2024-02-16	6.85	6.66	-2.95	242500	Upward Expansion	40	23
2024-02-09	6.96	6.66	-0.64	303400	Upward Expansion	47	35
2024-02-02	6.98	6.65	-0.84	603500	Upward Expansion	60	46
2024-01-26	6.91	6.63	-2.24	613200	Upward Expansion	63	63
2024-01-19	7.27	6.63	3.83	525700	Rotation Up	77	80
2024-01-12	7.16	6.60	1.84	219300	Rotation Up	48	66
2024-01-05	7.16	6.58	2.24	225600	Rotation Up	44	63
2023-12-29	6.89	6.56	-1.44	128900	Rotation Up	32	53
2023-12-22	6.84	6.53	-1.72	176800	Rotation Up	31	46
2023-12-15	6.81	6.50	-0.22	246100	Rotation Up	30	35
2023-12-08	6.73	6.48	-0.20	688400	Downward Expansion	18	27
2023-12-01	6.57	6.46	-2.90	968800	Downward Expansion	6	19
2023-11-24	6.54	6.45	-1.48	229800	Downward Expansion	-21	21
2023-11-17	6.44	6.45	-3.00	264800	Downward Expansion	-40	24
2023-11-10	6.26	6.46	-2.96	195800	Downward Expansion	-60	46
2023-11-03	6.23	6.48	-4.02	406200	Downward Expansion	-64	68
2023-10-27	5.79	6.50	-5.38	310500	Downward Expansion	-78	85
2023-10-20	5.83	6.53	-6.46	434900	Rotation Down	-83	85
2023-10-13	6.07	6.57	-4.13	321800	Rotation Down	-48	67
2023-10-06	6.08	6.62	-2.68	417100	Balance	-49	60

Price vs TrendBelow-18.8%

Trend directionRising+6.7%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+32.2%

Fair Value directionMoving away-48.4%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-17.0%

Relative strength directionWeakening-29.4%

Price momentumNegative-18.8%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.20×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-52 / ±100

-116.5 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

53 /100

-9.5 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

AGF-B Directional State ↗ AGF-B Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance28

Rotation Up14

Upward Expansion20

Deceleration73

Rotation Down74

Downward Expansion45

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 10%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 59%Deceleration 15%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 7%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Down	2026-09-25	2026-09-25	New	+0.0%
Deceleration	2026-09-11	2026-09-18	New	-7.6%
Upward Expansion	2026-07-03	2026-09-04	Developing	+8.4%
Balance	2026-06-12	2026-06-26	New	+4.6%
Deceleration	2026-04-24	2026-06-05	Developing	+8.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-19	2026-04-17	Extended	+11.4%
Deceleration	2025-08-08	2025-09-12	Developing	+11.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-06-13	2025-08-01	Developing	+1.3%
Rotation Up	2025-05-23	2025-06-06	New	+6.7%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-25	2025-05-16	New	+14.4%
Rotation Down	2025-04-11	2025-04-18	New	+0.4%
Balance	2025-03-21	2025-04-04	New	-9.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-07	2025-03-14	Developing	-8.8%
Deceleration	2025-01-03	2025-01-31	Developing	+6.7%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing24

Stage 2 · Advancing22

Stage 3 · Distribution48

Stage 4 · Declining78

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^GSPTSE

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 99/100
Current Relative Strength: -17.05
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -18.8%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -30.8%
Financial Services regime cohort: 33th percentile6 in cohort

Test AGF-B trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume3.40×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.20×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 4

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore AGF-B Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity CAD 18.74falling

Slow Activity CAD 20.16falling

Trend Reference CAD 19.51-18.8% close margin

Current Fair Value CAD 11.99+32.2% close margin

Structural low CAD 15.16shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Complete bearish ordering below the Trend Line confirms Downward Expansion; a repaired fast/slow cross and upside acceptance cancel the failure.

Range context +9.4%

Annualized volatility +52.3%

From structural high -33.8%

From structural low +20.8%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^GSPTSE	Regime survived	Read
Near term	5	+5.5%-1.8% to +22.1%	+80.0%	+20.0%	+5.8%	+20.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	4	+14.6%-8.1% to +39.0%	+75.0%	+25.0%	+12.0%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	3	+3.8%-6.0% to +48.2%	+66.7%	+33.3%	+4.7%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	+29.7%+24.4% to +121.8%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+34.0%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

AGF-B Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map