Weekly structural research · MEX · Technology

OKTA Stage Analysis

Okta, Inc.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close MXN 3,477.91Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^MXX

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Established expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: wide and contracting.

Direction 97−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 78/100directional strength

Maturity 82/100lifecycle context

Confidence 72/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Widecontracting separation

Price acceptance +83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +98.1%MXN 1,756.02 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	3,477.91	2,078.04	89.62	5477	Upward Expansion	97	78
2026-09-18	2,850.00	2,009.47	62.29	0	Upward Expansion	69	77
2026-09-11	2,850.00	1,961.82	62.84	662	Upward Expansion	76	71
2026-09-04	2,877.71	1,915.46	64.03	0	Upward Expansion	88	75
2026-08-28	2,877.71	1,869.20	64.39	10098	Upward Expansion	93	77
2026-08-21	2,572.00	1,822.95	47.97	0	Upward Expansion	67	68
2026-08-14	2,572.00	1,791.38	52.20	0	Upward Expansion	69	69
2026-08-07	2,622.00	1,761.55	50.47	0	Upward Expansion	73	89
2026-07-31	2,622.00	1,730.05	51.35	0	Upward Expansion	75	91
2026-07-24	2,622.00	1,692.68	53.29	0	Upward Expansion	85	83
2026-07-17	2,607.33	1,658.31	52.59	14	Upward Expansion	94	78
2026-07-10	2,470.00	1,626.12	45.66	40	Upward Expansion	95	84
2026-07-03	2,477.89	1,598.51	45.65	0	Upward Expansion	98	96
2026-06-26	1,990.00	1,567.74	17.15	0	Upward Expansion	67	89
2026-06-19	1,990.00	1,549.40	15.99	0	Upward Expansion	68	89
2026-06-12	2,014.00	1,531.06	16.55	5	Upward Expansion	88	96
2026-06-05	2,049.99	1,515.36	21.62	7	Rotation Up	93	97
2026-05-29	2,120.00	1,499.36	20.99	7418	Rotation Up	54	60
2026-05-22	1,400.00	1,483.16	-20.02	6	Downward Expansion	-48	45
2026-05-15	1,398.48	1,490.54	-20.91	2186	Downward Expansion	-52	51
2026-05-08	1,410.00	1,497.75	-23.58	88	Downward Expansion	-63	58
2026-05-01	1,328.29	1,505.72	-26.99	2985	Downward Expansion	-91	95
2026-04-24	1,380.00	1,519.59	-26.69	0	Downward Expansion	-67	83
2026-04-17	1,380.00	1,529.41	-28.11	0	Downward Expansion	-69	84
2026-04-10	1,380.00	1,540.11	-29.28	0	Downward Expansion	-72	87
2026-04-03	1,380.00	1,550.34	-29.96	0	Downward Expansion	-73	78
2026-03-27	1,380.00	1,560.81	-28.02	101	Downward Expansion	-75	66
2026-03-20	1,394.00	1,571.48	-25.53	396	Downward Expansion	-74	70
2026-03-13	1,418.00	1,581.44	-27.06	58	Downward Expansion	-71	82
2026-03-06	1,430.00	1,590.74	-29.24	1400	Downward Expansion	-69	82
2026-02-27	1,420.66	1,603.71	-34.66	0	Downward Expansion	-75	86
2026-02-20	1,420.66	1,619.29	-35.31	2682	Downward Expansion	-79	85
2026-02-13	1,459.05	1,635.23	-34.25	5751	Downward Expansion	-72	72
2026-02-06	1,490.00	1,646.01	-32.88	0	Balance	-58	36
2026-01-30	1,490.00	1,653.51	-30.43	36	Balance	-51	24
2026-01-23	1,625.00	1,665.01	-25.52	60	Balance	-11	14
2026-01-16	1,677.03	1,674.68	-22.48	0	Balance	5	13
2026-01-09	1,677.03	1,682.61	-21.67	218	Downward Expansion	-11	16
2026-01-02	1,501.00	1,688.91	-28.21	50	Downward Expansion	-57	35
2025-12-26	1,591.00	1,705.21	-26.07	14	Downward Expansion	-34	32
2025-12-19	1,641.60	1,718.82	-22.18	8	Downward Expansion	-46	36
2025-12-12	1,641.60	1,744.01	-23.50	150	Downward Expansion	-64	58
2025-12-05	1,554.71	1,769.20	-26.35	1484	Downward Expansion	-68	84
2025-11-28	1,439.92	1,794.56	-32.35	0	Downward Expansion	-89	96
2025-11-21	1,439.92	1,819.86	-30.83	1086	Downward Expansion	-94	94
2025-11-14	1,542.80	1,839.04	-26.77	16	Downward Expansion	-84	90
2025-11-07	1,570.00	1,857.10	-26.99	5	Downward Expansion	-79	80
2025-10-31	1,633.93	1,874.26	-23.45	1774	Downward Expansion	-66	66
2025-10-24	1,621.38	1,896.79	-22.16	1582	Downward Expansion	-72	62
2025-10-17	1,615.00	1,919.75	-23.31	40	Downward Expansion	-77	61
2025-10-10	1,649.00	1,942.92	-20.25	1724	Downward Expansion	-73	56
2025-10-03	1,744.44	1,963.08	-17.64	14116	Downward Expansion	-61	52
2025-09-26	1,674.58	1,981.17	-21.29	314	Downward Expansion	-69	62
2025-09-19	1,701.00	1,986.68	-18.61	934	Downward Expansion	-66	78
2025-09-12	1,687.00	1,994.15	-20.03	940	Downward Expansion	-71	87
2025-09-05	1,694.00	2,002.91	-17.99	825	Downward Expansion	-71	87
2025-08-29	1,700.00	2,013.95	-15.30	3929	Downward Expansion	-74	87
2025-08-22	1,693.00	2,022.61	-16.42	1113	Downward Expansion	-78	66
2025-08-15	1,697.00	2,027.33	-15.24	82	Downward Expansion	-82	59
2025-08-08	1,819.00	2,028.60	-8.78	3216	Downward Expansion	-68	54
2025-08-01	1,888.00	2,025.96	-3.32	21	Rotation Down	-65	75
2025-07-25	1,899.00	2,017.60	-3.47	561	Rotation Down	-39	68
2025-07-18	1,782.40	2,010.10	-7.69	76	Rotation Down	-45	73
2025-07-11	1,715.00	2,008.85	-11.71	1586	Rotation Down	-61	81
2025-07-04	1,835.00	2,008.35	-7.85	36	Rotation Down	-39	67
2025-06-27	1,915.00	2,003.85	-2.90	0	Rotation Down	-28	61
2025-06-20	1,915.00	1,992.45	-0.91	98	Deceleration	-32	45
2025-06-13	1,866.00	1,981.58	-5.15	55	Deceleration	-19	30
2025-06-06	1,990.00	1,972.35	0.25	7356	Upward Expansion	19	16
2025-05-30	1,999.42	1,955.41	1.41	3243	Upward Expansion	43	36
2025-05-23	2,397.21	1,938.16	20.91	0	Upward Expansion	74	74
2025-05-16	2,397.21	1,907.59	22.57	6555	Deceleration	76	52
2025-05-09	2,315.52	1,877.01	22.35	1045	Deceleration	60	36
2025-05-02	2,199.00	1,850.21	18.64	7	Deceleration	44	29
2025-04-25	2,015.27	1,824.24	7.70	129	Upward Expansion	42	27
2025-04-18	2,084.71	1,804.37	19.74	0	Upward Expansion	52	47
2025-04-11	2,084.71	1,782.19	23.96	15395	Upward Expansion	66	62
2025-04-04	2,310.00	1,761.70	38.38	0	Upward Expansion	70	88
2025-03-28	2,310.00	1,735.20	35.20	0	Upward Expansion	76	91
2025-03-21	2,310.00	1,710.53	37.43	13	Upward Expansion	84	73
2025-03-14	2,254.00	1,696.46	35.51	2458	Upward Expansion	87	73
2025-03-07	2,287.00	1,674.84	37.43	957	Upward Expansion	94	74
2025-02-28	1,840.00	1,652.12	12.33	1487	Upward Expansion	65	64
2025-02-21	1,925.00	1,648.46	14.58	474	Upward Expansion	68	87
2025-02-14	1,950.00	1,641.96	16.09	10556	Upward Expansion	72	90
2025-02-07	2,025.00	1,634.62	24.14	92	Upward Expansion	93	97
2025-01-31	1,960.00	1,624.79	24.93	618	Upward Expansion	93	95
2025-01-24	1,834.41	1,616.49	17.55	50	Rotation Up	87	67
2025-01-17	1,735.00	1,612.18	15.06	1477	Rotation Up	46	48
2025-01-10	1,740.00	1,605.34	16.89	10	Rotation Up	53	53
2025-01-03	1,637.00	1,598.34	11.92	91	Rotation Up	29	57
2024-12-27	1,674.00	1,594.78	14.11	1037	Rotation Up	32	72
2024-12-20	1,745.00	1,588.98	18.77	36	Rotation Up	54	83
2024-12-13	1,700.00	1,585.81	12.11	0	Rotation Up	50	78
2024-12-06	1,700.00	1,582.35	13.51	2166	Balance	50	57
2024-11-29	1,573.00	1,578.89	8.99	1756	Balance	1	24
2024-11-22	1,589.00	1,579.67	9.45	0	Balance	-13	18
2024-11-15	1,589.00	1,579.91	10.00	2550	Downward Expansion	-23	15
2024-11-08	1,481.91	1,582.50	0.44	5	Downward Expansion	-43	31
2024-11-01	1,481.91	1,588.66	3.24	293	Downward Expansion	-43	30
2024-10-25	1,480.00	1,594.82	0.79	38	Downward Expansion	-57	40
2024-10-18	1,480.00	1,606.69	-1.72	67	Downward Expansion	-62	50
2024-10-11	1,511.30	1,618.56	1.35	2027	Downward Expansion	-66	79
2024-10-04	1,420.00	1,629.38	-5.27	59	Downward Expansion	-73	89
2024-09-27	1,419.19	1,643.25	-5.83	0	Downward Expansion	-77	90
2024-09-20	1,419.19	1,657.14	-4.95	28	Downward Expansion	-84	80
2024-09-13	1,470.00	1,657.70	-1.34	692	Balance	-78	58
2024-09-06	1,515.00	1,659.70	3.48	196	Balance	-61	34
2024-08-30	1,570.00	1,658.00	3.57	1909	Upward Expansion	8	10
2024-08-23	1,887.84	1,654.47	23.51	643	Upward Expansion	84	47
2024-08-16	1,605.46	1,640.34	4.73	0	Upward Expansion	8	12
2024-08-09	1,605.46	1,633.82	7.23	20	Upward Expansion	31	33
2024-08-02	1,730.00	1,631.97	17.90	0	Upward Expansion	61	84
2024-07-26	1,730.00	1,625.97	17.42	0	Rotation Up	60	86
2024-07-19	1,730.00	1,619.97	16.42	0	Rotation Up	64	61
2024-07-12	1,730.00	1,604.28	14.51	40	Deceleration	68	57
2024-07-05	1,711.00	1,588.59	19.69	342	Deceleration	57	43
2024-06-28	1,705.00	1,573.53	19.93	1357	Rotation Down	37	23
2024-06-21	1,530.00	1,556.06	7.58	0	Rotation Down	-33	71
2024-06-14	1,530.00	1,545.33	9.14	0	Rotation Down	-36	69
2024-06-07	1,530.00	1,534.60	8.09	368	Rotation Down	-23	62
2024-05-31	1,500.00	1,523.39	2.09	316	Rotation Down	-33	55
2024-05-24	1,650.00	1,523.55	12.02	21	Deceleration	9	23
2024-05-17	1,596.25	1,518.72	4.42	0	Deceleration	6	27
2024-05-10	1,596.25	1,515.68	4.52	0	Deceleration	23	32
2024-05-03	1,596.25	1,512.64	5.95	0	Deceleration	28	37
2024-04-26	1,596.25	1,509.60	5.05	152	Deceleration	34	42
2024-04-19	1,666.76	1,506.55	13.92	0	Upward Expansion	47	43
2024-04-12	1,666.76	1,501.00	12.61	0	Upward Expansion	54	57
2024-04-05	1,666.76	1,495.44	9.74	353	Upward Expansion	67	80
2024-03-29	1,836.00	1,490.74	22.39	0	Upward Expansion	67	88
2024-03-22	1,836.00	1,475.14	24.33	0	Upward Expansion	76	91
2024-03-15	1,836.00	1,455.34	25.46	0	Upward Expansion	87	95
2024-03-08	1,836.00	1,435.54	28.69	36	Upward Expansion	93	96
2024-03-01	1,836.00	1,415.67	27.73	212	Upward Expansion	92	84
2024-02-23	1,435.88	1,395.80	-1.73	220	Upward Expansion	46	35
2024-02-16	1,530.00	1,387.94	3.83	7	Upward Expansion	80	56
2024-02-09	1,464.02	1,376.94	-0.86	0	Upward Expansion	59	44
2024-02-02	1,464.02	1,368.14	-2.40	71	Upward Expansion	59	47
2024-01-26	1,464.02	1,358.67	0.13	213	Upward Expansion	62	71
2024-01-19	1,410.00	1,352.33	-0.89	38	Upward Expansion	63	61
2024-01-12	1,550.00	1,347.80	8.86	0	Rotation Up	85	73
2024-01-05	1,550.00	1,337.83	8.12	0	Rotation Up	75	63
2023-12-29	1,550.00	1,330.07	6.11	30	Rotation Up	37	35
2023-12-22	1,259.20	1,322.33	-13.64	0	Rotation Down	-28	61
2023-12-15	1,259.20	1,330.69	-13.57	6	Rotation Down	-31	75
2023-12-08	1,259.20	1,330.79	-9.61	7771	Rotation Down	-31	76
2023-12-01	1,181.01	1,330.89	-14.57	50	Rotation Down	-46	61
2023-11-24	1,208.13	1,333.59	-11.21	0	Rotation Down	-46	58
2023-11-17	1,208.13	1,336.08	-10.60	170	Rotation Down	-35	45
2023-11-10	1,193.55	1,347.34	-9.04	710	Rotation Down	4	21
2023-11-03	1,505.00	1,359.09	15.07	0	Upward Expansion	66	64
2023-10-27	1,505.00	1,360.45	21.12	0	Upward Expansion	67	66
2023-10-20	1,505.00	1,361.81	23.58	6	Rotation Up	70	68
2023-10-13	1,505.00	1,363.18	21.77	0	Rotation Up	43	78
2023-10-06	1,505.00	1,364.54	21.88	0	Rotation Up	43	80

Price vs TrendAbove+67.4%

Trend directionRising+25.3%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+98.1%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+76.6%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+89.6%

Relative strength directionImproving+72.5%

Price momentumPositive+152.0%

Volume balanceDemand-led22.21×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

97 / ±100

+3.8 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

78 /100

+1.4 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

OKTA Directional State ↗ OKTA Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance6

Rotation Up81

Upward Expansion88

Deceleration66

Rotation Down15

Downward Expansion12

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 6%Rotation Up 11%Upward Expansion 34%Deceleration 8%Rotation Down 12%Downward Expansion 30%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-06-12	2026-09-25	Established	+72.7%
Rotation Up	2026-05-29	2026-06-05	New	-3.3%
Downward Expansion	2026-02-13	2026-05-22	Established	-4.0%
Balance	2026-01-16	2026-02-06	New	-11.2%
Downward Expansion	2025-08-08	2026-01-09	Established	-7.8%
Rotation Down	2025-06-27	2025-08-01	Developing	-1.4%
Deceleration	2025-06-13	2025-06-20	New	+2.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-23	2025-06-06	New	-17.0%
Deceleration	2025-05-02	2025-05-16	New	+9.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-01-31	2025-04-25	Established	+2.8%
Rotation Up	2024-12-13	2025-01-24	Developing	+7.9%
Balance	2024-11-22	2024-12-06	New	+7.0%
Downward Expansion	2024-09-20	2024-11-15	Developing	+12.0%
Balance	2024-09-06	2024-09-13	New	-3.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing21

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution49

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2C · Late advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^MXX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 100/100
Current Relative Strength: 89.62
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +152.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +154.6%
Technology regime cohort: 40th percentile40 in cohort

Test OKTA trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume4.23×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume22.21×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore OKTA Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity MXN 3,064.85rising

Slow Activity MXN 2,413.53rising

Trend Reference MXN 2,078.04+67.4% close margin

Current Fair Value MXN 1,756.02+98.1% close margin

Structural low MXN 1,280.00shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +5.3%

Annualized volatility +70.7%

From structural high -7.0%

From structural low +176.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^MXX	Regime survived	Read
Near term	17	-4.2%-20.1% to +25.5%	+41.2%	+41.2%	-6.3%	+70.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	-2.7%-29.4% to +41.5%	+42.9%	+42.9%	-11.2%	+28.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	+1.5%-3.7% to +13.3%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-6.5%	+25.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	+18.8%-39.7% to +25.8%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+11.5%	+66.7%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

OKTA Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map