Weekly structural research · LSE · Technology

CPX Stage Analysis

CAP-XX Limited

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close GBP 0.00128Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^FTSE

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: wide and contracting.

Direction -75−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 67/100directional strength

Maturity 40/100lifecycle context

Confidence 96/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Widecontracting separation

Price acceptance -100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -58.9%GBP 0.003117 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	0.00128	0.002123	-46.11	230510677	Downward Expansion	-75	67
2026-09-25	0.0014	0.002161	-43.50	115543782	Downward Expansion	-69	71
2026-09-18	0.00138	0.002202	-45.33	61369318	Downward Expansion	-72	80
2026-09-11	0.00143	0.002236	-44.63	43766161	Downward Expansion	-71	87
2026-09-04	0.00143	0.002272	-46.47	100737425	Downward Expansion	-72	89
2026-08-28	0.00145	0.002293	-46.80	89479664	Downward Expansion	-71	88
2026-08-21	0.0015	0.002321	-46.21	13864216	Rotation Down	-72	86
2026-08-14	0.00153	0.002344	-46.03	23015735	Rotation Down	-47	71
2026-08-07	0.00155	0.002367	-47.34	47324980	Rotation Down	-38	42
2026-07-31	0.00145	0.002392	-51.65	383357067	Rotation Down	-23	23
2026-07-24	0.0026	0.002422	-13.56	11863472	Upward Expansion	53	32
2026-07-17	0.0028	0.002412	-6.84	9023409	Upward Expansion	59	51
2026-07-10	0.0029	0.0024	-2.73	9711180	Upward Expansion	63	59
2026-07-03	0.0029	0.00238	-4.44	13025431	Upward Expansion	64	60
2026-06-26	0.00295	0.002358	-1.40	20137907	Upward Expansion	69	62
2026-06-19	0.0027	0.002337	-8.24	28910410	Upward Expansion	60	56
2026-06-12	0.0027	0.00233	-8.78	22330529	Balance	58	50
2026-06-05	0.00265	0.002328	-9.13	177666360	Balance	27	29
2026-05-29	0.0026	0.002333	-10.74	96338638	Balance	16	12
2026-05-22	0.00235	0.002365	-19.30	115572782	Balance	-24	10
2026-05-15	0.00235	0.002402	-16.82	229505305	Balance	-26	12
2026-05-08	0.0021	0.002435	-25.76	34250321	Balance	-47	19
2026-05-01	0.00215	0.002485	-24.57	133416979	Balance	-34	13
2026-04-24	0.00235	0.002528	-17.28	48672058	Balance	-30	14
2026-04-17	0.00235	0.002573	-19.03	115212069	Balance	-44	21
2026-04-10	0.00225	0.002625	-21.53	101637867	Balance	-47	29
2026-04-03	0.002	0.002658	-28.84	75861542	Balance	-55	37
2026-03-27	0.0023	0.002715	-13.95	74353773	Balance	-44	25
2026-03-20	0.0021	0.002775	-20.50	52375066	Balance	-51	25
2026-03-13	0.0022	0.002843	-19.16	40463256	Balance	-29	13
2026-03-06	0.0024	0.002913	-11.61	99450620	Downward Expansion	-27	16
2026-02-27	0.00265	0.00297	-7.30	143922545	Downward Expansion	-30	15
2026-02-20	0.0024	0.002988	-13.63	72553150	Downward Expansion	-40	25
2026-02-13	0.0025	0.003035	-7.45	141803195	Downward Expansion	-54	34
2026-02-06	0.00205	0.003038	-22.99	135827906	Downward Expansion	-65	48
2026-01-30	0.0023	0.003055	-12.08	103182985	Downward Expansion	-57	40
2026-01-23	0.0022	0.003066	-14.82	72015492	Downward Expansion	-60	42
2026-01-16	0.0022	0.003063	-15.23	62862459	Downward Expansion	-62	43
2026-01-09	0.0023	0.003046	-10.09	67601595	Downward Expansion	-59	41
2026-01-02	0.00235	0.003025	-6.32	27709395	Rotation Down	-59	43
2025-12-26	0.0023	0.003	-7.47	25323797	Rotation Down	-36	48
2025-12-19	0.00245	0.002971	-1.32	31460974	Rotation Down	-36	55
2025-12-12	0.0023	0.002938	-4.37	79004814	Rotation Down	-39	62
2025-12-05	0.00225	0.002918	-6.16	75131935	Rotation Down	-33	59
2025-11-28	0.0023	0.002881	-3.97	217329487	Rotation Down	-33	54
2025-11-21	0.0025	0.002844	6.92	104089150	Deceleration	-28	42
2025-11-14	0.00265	0.0028	12.30	183995652	Deceleration	-6	16
2025-11-07	0.0028	0.00275	19.88	381431419	Deceleration	-1	8
2025-10-31	0.00355	0.002697	52.88	136647391	Deceleration	21	12
2025-10-24	0.00345	0.002614	52.21	165115750	Deceleration	32	16
2025-10-17	0.00335	0.002538	54.70	116792209	Deceleration	34	18
2025-10-10	0.00359	0.002471	66.73	182318051	Deceleration	38	24
2025-10-03	0.00345	0.002394	61.52	139610524	Deceleration	39	23
2025-09-26	0.0037	0.002317	79.32	167890929	Deceleration	43	27
2025-09-19	0.0039	0.002235	93.15	245667055	Upward Expansion	49	34
2025-09-12	0.00325	0.002148	61.94	370585510	Upward Expansion	49	39
2025-09-05	0.0037	0.002081	87.41	274900375	Upward Expansion	65	56
2025-08-29	0.0041	0.002002	110.53	121649505	Upward Expansion	68	66
2025-08-22	0.00415	0.001912	112.82	255008963	Upward Expansion	72	68
2025-08-15	0.0043	0.001819	127.62	317135452	Upward Expansion	82	84
2025-08-08	0.0041	0.001724	120.99	1032813715	Upward Expansion	85	77
2025-08-01	0.0032	0.001641	73.50	570261711	Upward Expansion	71	81
2025-07-25	0.0038	0.001596	104.23	924019138	Upward Expansion	94	95
2025-07-18	0.0026	0.001518	42.06	482667723	Upward Expansion	75	84
2025-07-11	0.00255	0.001476	37.58	408547725	Upward Expansion	80	84
2025-07-04	0.00265	0.001439	43.13	773574777	Upward Expansion	90	84
2025-06-27	0.0021	0.001392	13.92	677148349	Upward Expansion	82	73
2025-06-20	0.0017	0.001369	-7.84	495010061	Rotation Up	65	56
2025-06-13	0.00165	0.001359	-11.69	424422384	Rotation Up	33	43
2025-06-06	0.0016	0.001348	-13.56	612775142	Balance	24	33
2025-05-30	0.00145	0.001341	-20.46	565454699	Balance	14	20
2025-05-23	0.00145	0.001336	-19.51	491350945	Balance	12	17
2025-05-16	0.0017	0.001336	-4.79	1832375463	Balance	26	18
2025-05-09	0.00113	0.001334	-35.19	226086397	Downward Expansion	-52	28
2025-05-02	0.0012	0.001353	-31.29	171564315	Downward Expansion	-49	26
2025-04-25	0.00118	0.001373	-30.68	190719053	Downward Expansion	-52	37
2025-04-18	0.00115	0.001399	-31.07	120897848	Downward Expansion	-54	42
2025-04-11	0.0012	0.001435	-25.17	490592210	Downward Expansion	-51	31
2025-04-04	0.00106	0.001466	-34.49	494104323	Downward Expansion	-63	35
2025-03-28	0.00118	0.001506	-32.13	334961134	Downward Expansion	-56	32
2025-03-21	0.00133	0.001551	-23.31	742518816	Downward Expansion	-52	31
2025-03-14	0.0013	0.001594	-24.86	629217746	Downward Expansion	-56	37
2025-03-07	0.00113	0.001642	-35.67	399466079	Downward Expansion	-66	51
2025-02-28	0.00123	0.001719	-33.69	422068241	Downward Expansion	-61	47
2025-02-21	0.0013	0.001783	-31.69	669122646	Downward Expansion	-57	44
2025-02-14	0.00123	0.001848	-39.25	329868637	Downward Expansion	-62	47
2025-02-07	0.00135	0.001938	-36.92	344988379	Downward Expansion	-45	33
2025-01-31	0.00138	0.002008	-38.84	458741499	Downward Expansion	-43	27
2025-01-24	0.00138	0.00204	-41.46	652422986	Downward Expansion	-31	16
2025-01-17	0.00143	0.002069	-43.47	879413960	Downward Expansion	-35	21
2025-01-10	0.00163	0.002087	-36.71	1111499728	Downward Expansion	-32	20
2025-01-03	0.00183	0.00206	-31.63	1165622250	Downward Expansion	-33	20
2024-12-27	0.00148	0.002025	-46.14	254218578	Downward Expansion	-45	36
2024-12-20	0.00133	0.002005	-53.16	682143823	Downward Expansion	-59	43
2024-12-13	0.00145	0.001991	-52.46	1411935089	Downward Expansion	-57	42
2024-12-06	0.00123	0.001972	-63.65	949965032	Downward Expansion	-67	56
2024-11-29	0.0014	0.001958	-61.94	1834580988	Downward Expansion	-33	43
2024-11-22	0.0014	0.001938	-64.43	672879534	Rotation Down	-37	56
2024-11-15	0.00133	0.001919	-67.56	339991965	Rotation Down	-41	62
2024-11-08	0.00138	0.001908	-68.18	636636496	Rotation Down	-40	60
2024-11-01	0.0013	0.001896	-71.52	920298582	Rotation Down	-36	58
2024-10-25	0.00145	0.001886	-69.64	184555363	Rotation Down	-33	55
2024-10-18	0.00165	0.001871	-67.28	111662881	Deceleration	-28	48
2024-10-11	0.0017	0.001854	-67.35	83911458	Deceleration	-6	30
2024-10-04	0.0018	0.001863	-66.99	219679521	Deceleration	-1	16
2024-09-27	0.00195	0.001944	-66.08	141022632	Deceleration	3	15
2024-09-20	0.00225	0.002038	-62.22	436348934	Deceleration	23	20
2024-09-13	0.00213	0.002163	-65.97	342409523	Deceleration	24	20
2024-09-06	0.00225	0.002317	-65.22	403248227	Deceleration	4	13
2024-08-30	0.00253	0.002467	-63.18	342100322	Rotation Up	10	11
2024-08-23	0.00263	0.002649	-63.01	437846015	Rotation Up	15	18
2024-08-16	0.00273	0.00287	-62.99	295778427	Rotation Up	30	30
2024-08-09	0.00343	0.003012	-54.67	507779894	Rotation Up	28	41
2024-08-02	0.00315	0.003123	-59.58	546874584	Rotation Up	27	46
2024-07-26	0.00325	0.003231	-59.99	1030389396	Rotation Up	28	49
2024-07-19	0.00395	0.003358	-53.05	1844941437	Rotation Up	32	53
2024-07-12	0.00345	0.003484	-60.39	2797486813	Rotation Up	29	49
2024-07-05	0.00232	0.003936	-73.92	1498013498	Downward Expansion	-16	38
2024-06-28	0.00225	0.004375	-75.32	2073562268	Downward Expansion	-48	44
2024-06-21	0.00198	0.004767	-79.06	2463024764	Downward Expansion	-56	83
2024-06-14	0.00081	0.005159	-91.58	484755970	Downward Expansion	-69	89
2024-06-07	0.00079	0.005549	-92.13	190170689	Downward Expansion	-68	80
2024-05-31	0.00087	0.005831	-91.63	227956123	Downward Expansion	-66	79
2024-05-24	0.00093	0.00611	-91.30	699791503	Downward Expansion	-65	67
2024-05-17	0.00086	0.006429	-92.23	686903773	Downward Expansion	-67	81
2024-05-10	0.00083	0.006801	-92.69	618004564	Downward Expansion	-69	81
2024-05-03	0.00078	0.00719	-93.10	1226683527	Downward Expansion	-71	83
2024-04-26	0.00085	0.007639	-92.59	1330363319	Downward Expansion	-70	81
2024-04-19	0.001	0.008102	-91.40	0	Downward Expansion	-69	82
2024-04-12	0.001	0.008577	-91.87	0	Downward Expansion	-70	88
2024-04-05	0.001	0.009069	-92.01	0	Downward Expansion	-73	89
2024-03-29	0.001	0.009485	-92.23	319537837	Downward Expansion	-79	91
2024-03-22	0.00116	0.00996	-91.18	2075521764	Downward Expansion	-84	92
2024-03-15	0.00195	0.0104	-85.17	1046553627	Downward Expansion	-81	80
2024-03-08	0.00425	0.0109	-68.15	12718246	Downward Expansion	-69	68
2024-03-01	0.00475	0.0112	-65.36	38634538	Downward Expansion	-67	58
2024-02-23	0.006	0.0115	-57.53	13034381	Downward Expansion	-62	44
2024-02-16	0.00675	0.0121	-53.74	7798304	Downward Expansion	-56	34
2024-02-09	0.00675	0.0123	-54.24	15034899	Downward Expansion	-57	34
2024-02-02	0.008	0.0126	-47.66	30581899	Downward Expansion	-53	36
2024-01-26	0.00925	0.0128	-41.12	28518750	Downward Expansion	-58	56
2024-01-19	0.007	0.013	-55.48	16951599	Downward Expansion	-59	69
2024-01-12	0.00675	0.0132	-59.73	59875165	Downward Expansion	-63	68
2024-01-05	0.0064	0.0135	-63.63	26751445	Downward Expansion	-65	62
2023-12-29	0.00705	0.0138	-61.56	10894633	Downward Expansion	-60	34
2023-12-22	0.00775	0.014	-58.91	112636043	Downward Expansion	-44	20
2023-12-15	0.017	0.0142	-11.20	29476418	Downward Expansion	25	26
2023-12-08	0.0155	0.014	-20.57	21990022	Downward Expansion	-11	17
2023-12-01	0.014	0.014	-29.64	17917159	Downward Expansion	-30	15
2023-11-24	0.0138	0.014	-32.40	36352550	Downward Expansion	-51	33
2023-11-17	0.0125	0.0144	-40.24	54291332	Downward Expansion	-63	69
2023-11-10	0.00925	0.0149	-55.90	13939929	Downward Expansion	-76	82
2023-11-03	0.00925	0.0152	-57.09	23550650	Downward Expansion	-82	82
2023-10-27	0.0105	0.0154	-51.60	29227811	Downward Expansion	-71	66
2023-10-20	0.012	0.0157	-46.65	6395024	Balance	-58	45
2023-10-13	0.0125	0.0158	-47.04	8439146	Balance	-56	32

Price vs TrendBelow-39.7%

Trend directionFalling-12.3%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-58.9%

Fair Value directionMoving away-27.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-46.1%

Relative strength directionWeakening-41.7%

Price momentumNegative-36.0%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.18×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-75 / ±100

-2.9 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

67 /100

-22.1 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

CPX Directional State ↗ CPX Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance4

Rotation Up24

Upward Expansion12

Deceleration50

Rotation Down66

Downward Expansion90

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 13%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 12%Deceleration 10%Rotation Down 10%Downward Expansion 49%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-08-28	2026-10-02	Developing	-11.7%
Rotation Down	2026-07-31	2026-08-21	New	+3.4%
Upward Expansion	2026-06-19	2026-07-24	Developing	-3.7%
Balance	2026-03-13	2026-06-12	Established	+22.7%
Downward Expansion	2026-01-09	2026-03-06	Developing	+4.3%
Rotation Down	2025-11-28	2026-01-02	Developing	+2.2%
Deceleration	2025-09-26	2025-11-21	Developing	-32.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-06-27	2025-09-19	Established	+85.7%
Rotation Up	2025-06-13	2025-06-20	New	+3.0%
Balance	2025-05-16	2025-06-06	New	-5.9%
Downward Expansion	2024-11-29	2025-05-09	Established	-19.3%
Rotation Down	2024-10-25	2024-11-22	Developing	-3.4%
Deceleration	2024-09-06	2024-10-18	Developing	-26.7%
Rotation Up	2024-07-12	2024-08-30	Developing	-26.7%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing51

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution19

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^FTSE

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 100/100
Current Relative Strength: -46.11
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -36.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -36.2%
Technology regime cohort: 68th percentile31 in cohort

Test CPX trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume2.86×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.18×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 4

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore CPX Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity GBP 0.001362falling

Slow Activity GBP 0.001961falling

Trend Reference GBP 0.002123-39.7% close margin

Current Fair Value GBP 0.003117-58.9% close margin

Structural low GBP 0.0012shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +20.1%

Annualized volatility +90.8%

From structural high -67.2%

From structural low +6.7%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^FTSE	Regime survived	Read
Near term	44	-4.5%-71.1% to +193.7%	+34.1%	+63.6%	-4.6%	+84.1%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	14	-9.6%-90.8% to +282.4%	+35.7%	+64.3%	-9.2%	+64.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	8	-14.8%-91.9% to +70.6%	+37.5%	+62.5%	-16.9%	+37.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-54.5%-83.7% to +14.2%	+25.0%	+75.0%	-55.4%	+75.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

CPX Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map