Weekly structural research · ASX · Consumer Cyclical

RFG Stage Analysis

Retail Food Group Limited

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close AUD 0.995Tenure NewBenchmark ^AXJO

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Early expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 45−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 35/100directional strength

Maturity 70/100lifecycle context

Confidence 68/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -49.7%AUD 1.98 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	0.995	0.8952	-8.65	225806	Upward Expansion	45	35
2026-10-02	1.00	0.8977	-7.80	520510	Upward Expansion	61	53
2026-09-25	1.06	0.9008	-3.05	218209	Upward Expansion	66	78
2026-09-18	1.06	0.9017	-4.31	109478	Rotation Up	68	85
2026-09-11	1.12	0.9015	0.33	586937	Rotation Up	51	79
2026-09-04	1.12	0.8995	-2.69	350633	Rotation Up	58	84
2026-08-28	1.04	0.9017	-11.42	145935	Rotation Up	37	75
2026-08-21	1.01	0.9165	-14.22	30305	Rotation Up	34	70
2026-08-14	1.08	0.9338	-9.76	81045	Rotation Up	51	69
2026-08-07	0.985	0.9483	-20.50	35514	Downward Expansion	25	36
2026-07-31	0.835	0.9662	-31.59	43242	Downward Expansion	-15	20
2026-07-24	0.845	0.9878	-30.44	3697	Downward Expansion	-29	26
2026-07-17	0.83	1.01	-33.07	26022	Downward Expansion	-35	27
2026-07-10	0.78	1.03	-38.34	23310	Downward Expansion	-38	34
2026-07-03	0.785	1.06	-39.39	90390	Downward Expansion	-45	39
2026-06-26	0.75	1.08	-42.61	99116	Downward Expansion	-52	54
2026-06-19	0.845	1.11	-37.12	154749	Downward Expansion	-66	66
2026-06-12	0.65	1.13	-52.23	53760	Downward Expansion	-69	83
2026-06-05	0.625	1.16	-53.87	518588	Downward Expansion	-76	91
2026-05-29	0.60	1.19	-57.00	108581	Downward Expansion	-90	96
2026-05-22	0.66	1.22	-53.08	204742	Downward Expansion	-90	96
2026-05-15	0.715	1.24	-49.84	256768	Downward Expansion	-89	96
2026-05-08	0.72	1.26	-50.97	455508	Downward Expansion	-94	95
2026-05-01	0.885	1.28	-40.63	209667	Downward Expansion	-76	73
2026-04-24	0.875	1.29	-42.42	197352	Downward Expansion	-84	76
2026-04-17	0.96	1.31	-38.78	179175	Downward Expansion	-74	68
2026-04-10	0.975	1.32	-38.78	196073	Downward Expansion	-74	68
2026-04-03	0.985	1.34	-36.39	215395	Downward Expansion	-77	69
2026-03-27	1.02	1.36	-34.54	59449	Downward Expansion	-74	68
2026-03-20	1.04	1.37	-33.75	153614	Downward Expansion	-75	81
2026-03-13	1.07	1.39	-33.82	309995	Downward Expansion	-70	89
2026-03-06	1.10	1.43	-34.64	724863	Downward Expansion	-68	89
2026-02-27	1.08	1.46	-38.69	381543	Downward Expansion	-74	91
2026-02-20	1.06	1.48	-40.41	864928	Downward Expansion	-88	95
2026-02-13	1.06	1.51	-39.97	786348	Downward Expansion	-88	87
2026-02-06	1.19	1.55	-31.63	477451	Downward Expansion	-78	58
2026-01-30	1.48	1.57	-17.04	141326	Balance	-25	11
2026-01-23	1.53	1.59	-15.14	140745	Balance	-19	9
2026-01-16	1.52	1.61	-17.05	162237	Balance	-26	16
2026-01-09	1.52	1.62	-15.70	113921	Balance	-26	20
2026-01-02	1.48	1.63	-18.50	88237	Balance	-26	20
2025-12-26	1.48	1.64	-20.09	63658	Balance	-22	13
2025-12-19	1.48	1.65	-20.10	194720	Balance	-9	17
2025-12-12	1.54	1.66	-18.66	99864	Balance	-6	23
2025-12-05	1.60	1.67	-16.14	168697	Downward Expansion	-2	21
2025-11-28	1.59	1.68	-17.56	346296	Downward Expansion	-23	29
2025-11-21	1.56	1.69	-18.58	419807	Downward Expansion	-35	34
2025-11-14	1.44	1.69	-27.47	304009	Downward Expansion	-44	31
2025-11-07	1.49	1.71	-27.39	400913	Downward Expansion	-50	41
2025-10-31	1.47	1.72	-30.17	1125876	Downward Expansion	-65	56
2025-10-24	1.26	1.73	-41.86	140483	Downward Expansion	-73	82
2025-10-17	1.26	1.76	-42.34	196669	Downward Expansion	-76	85
2025-10-10	1.30	1.78	-41.34	311065	Downward Expansion	-76	85
2025-10-03	1.34	1.80	-40.77	491993	Downward Expansion	-77	86
2025-09-26	1.39	1.82	-37.79	379345	Downward Expansion	-73	86
2025-09-19	1.45	1.84	-35.79	611527	Downward Expansion	-66	82
2025-09-12	1.44	1.87	-37.71	398404	Downward Expansion	-73	82
2025-09-05	1.46	1.88	-37.68	1350706	Downward Expansion	-76	76
2025-08-29	1.42	1.90	-41.08	1560997	Rotation Down	-78	60
2025-08-22	1.62	1.93	-33.36	1969676	Rotation Down	-25	15
2025-08-15	2.20	1.95	-10.25	553082	Balance	47	31
2025-08-08	1.95	1.94	-19.91	388458	Balance	12	11
2025-08-01	1.94	1.96	-20.05	231878	Rotation Up	15	18
2025-07-25	1.96	1.98	-19.68	355667	Rotation Up	18	33
2025-07-18	2.04	2.00	-18.35	425279	Balance	25	33
2025-07-11	2.01	2.02	-18.70	401588	Balance	1	20
2025-07-04	1.96	2.05	-21.71	369012	Balance	-11	14
2025-06-27	2.10	2.08	-16.21	725942	Downward Expansion	-11	9
2025-06-20	1.84	2.11	-27.10	593771	Downward Expansion	-56	39
2025-06-13	1.76	2.14	-31.63	453075	Downward Expansion	-63	47
2025-06-06	1.81	2.19	-30.26	561315	Downward Expansion	-57	41
2025-05-30	1.76	2.22	-32.05	676846	Downward Expansion	-66	44
2025-05-23	1.80	2.25	-30.52	539434	Downward Expansion	-62	43
2025-05-16	1.90	2.28	-27.17	552377	Downward Expansion	-56	41
2025-05-09	1.89	2.31	-27.17	472165	Downward Expansion	-60	47
2025-05-02	1.78	2.33	-32.20	257305	Downward Expansion	-65	52
2025-04-25	1.74	2.36	-31.76	73770	Downward Expansion	-72	55
2025-04-18	1.84	2.39	-27.13	103932	Downward Expansion	-66	51
2025-04-11	1.93	2.42	-22.62	337161	Downward Expansion	-61	51
2025-04-04	1.86	2.45	-25.95	1652820	Downward Expansion	-69	56
2025-03-28	1.95	2.48	-26.24	423008	Downward Expansion	-63	56
2025-03-21	1.90	2.51	-28.05	406835	Downward Expansion	-72	57
2025-03-14	1.99	2.53	-24.09	242686	Downward Expansion	-65	54
2025-03-07	1.91	2.56	-29.12	259703	Downward Expansion	-78	63
2025-02-28	2.06	2.60	-26.18	432870	Downward Expansion	-68	60
2025-02-21	2.28	2.63	-20.08	1453396	Downward Expansion	-67	73
2025-02-14	1.84	2.65	-37.87	566548	Downward Expansion	-89	95
2025-02-07	2.04	2.69	-31.45	302364	Downward Expansion	-78	89
2025-01-31	2.16	2.73	-28.11	244575	Downward Expansion	-73	86
2025-01-24	2.17	2.76	-27.18	296288	Downward Expansion	-75	86
2025-01-17	2.15	2.79	-27.56	259359	Downward Expansion	-83	85
2025-01-10	2.28	2.83	-23.48	273999	Downward Expansion	-79	73
2025-01-03	2.52	2.85	-15.35	145663	Balance	-55	39
2024-12-27	2.58	2.86	-13.79	75494	Balance	-48	24
2024-12-20	2.88	2.86	-1.74	0	Balance	11	11
2024-12-13	2.88	2.86	-4.56	105675	Balance	10	16
2024-12-06	2.84	2.86	-7.19	520731	Balance	14	22
2024-11-29	2.88	2.85	-5.92	146455	Balance	13	22
2024-11-22	2.88	2.85	-5.49	403427	Balance	11	19
2024-11-15	3.12	2.85	3.93	935932	Downward Expansion	2	12
2024-11-08	2.72	2.84	-9.41	412881	Downward Expansion	-40	25
2024-11-01	2.72	2.84	-7.50	92182	Downward Expansion	-53	34
2024-10-25	2.68	2.85	-9.82	335194	Downward Expansion	-56	42
2024-10-18	2.68	2.86	-10.36	1144778	Downward Expansion	-59	55
2024-10-11	2.64	2.87	-10.74	61254	Downward Expansion	-64	57
2024-10-04	2.68	2.88	-8.43	378500	Downward Expansion	-62	56
2024-09-27	2.64	2.89	-10.26	304630	Downward Expansion	-69	57
2024-09-20	2.80	2.90	-4.62	150405	Downward Expansion	-57	53
2024-09-13	2.72	2.91	-5.77	103253	Balance	-63	58
2024-09-06	2.80	2.92	-1.66	96219	Balance	-45	42
2024-08-30	2.72	2.92	-5.15	87378	Balance	-26	31
2024-08-23	2.76	2.92	-2.76	530875	Balance	-13	18
2024-08-16	2.88	2.93	2.46	64717	Balance	17	14
2024-08-09	2.92	2.93	6.55	235306	Upward Expansion	27	15
2024-08-02	2.96	2.92	6.10	165195	Upward Expansion	36	17
2024-07-26	3.04	2.91	9.70	183168	Upward Expansion	51	30
2024-07-19	3.04	2.91	9.60	256523	Upward Expansion	56	54
2024-07-12	3.04	2.90	10.19	155721	Upward Expansion	57	63
2024-07-05	3.16	2.88	17.00	500711	Upward Expansion	61	57
2024-06-28	3.20	2.85	19.78	1253024	Balance	64	50
2024-06-21	3.16	2.83	18.48	899535	Balance	51	26
2024-06-14	3.04	2.79	15.96	1383562	Balance	38	18
2024-06-07	2.60	2.77	-1.89	283635	Balance	-33	38
2024-05-31	2.72	2.77	4.98	484174	Balance	-5	13
2024-05-24	2.80	2.75	7.99	372247	Balance	6	7
2024-05-17	2.84	2.72	8.52	283211	Balance	10	9
2024-05-10	2.80	2.69	8.03	914023	Balance	7	14
2024-05-03	2.88	2.66	12.96	478692	Balance	15	15
2024-04-26	2.80	2.63	10.77	184524	Upward Expansion	18	14
2024-04-19	2.72	2.60	7.58	427396	Upward Expansion	28	16
2024-04-12	2.88	2.58	10.78	218506	Upward Expansion	54	34
2024-04-05	3.00	2.55	15.58	282762	Upward Expansion	59	41
2024-03-29	3.00	2.52	13.79	420384	Upward Expansion	61	41
2024-03-22	2.96	2.50	14.11	214571	Upward Expansion	58	39
2024-03-15	2.96	2.47	15.49	449193	Upward Expansion	58	41
2024-03-08	2.88	2.45	9.68	201637	Upward Expansion	56	44
2024-03-01	2.92	2.43	12.35	1193481	Upward Expansion	58	46
2024-02-23	3.00	2.41	16.63	1953302	Upward Expansion	63	49
2024-02-16	3.04	2.38	17.14	133929	Upward Expansion	68	54
2024-02-09	2.84	2.35	8.85	295061	Upward Expansion	57	46
2024-02-02	2.84	2.33	7.07	1196277	Upward Expansion	59	47
2024-01-26	3.04	2.32	15.76	288652	Upward Expansion	76	55
2024-01-19	2.72	2.29	4.69	103072	Upward Expansion	62	62
2024-01-12	2.68	2.26	0.99	73575	Upward Expansion	64	75
2024-01-05	2.84	2.24	6.44	91870	Upward Expansion	74	80
2023-12-29	2.80	2.22	2.83	66033	Upward Expansion	76	72
2023-12-22	2.84	2.20	5.06	358134	Upward Expansion	83	68
2023-12-15	2.44	2.18	-9.26	312958	Rotation Up	62	37
2023-12-08	2.24	2.18	-14.15	250702	Rotation Up	29	42
2023-12-01	2.48	2.19	-3.71	264042	Rotation Up	34	52
2023-11-24	2.16	2.19	-15.92	181217	Rotation Up	17	31
2023-11-17	2.52	2.22	-2.03	209897	Downward Expansion	35	36
2023-11-10	2.36	2.22	-7.13	394390	Downward Expansion	-8	11
2023-11-03	2.24	2.23	-11.68	430718	Downward Expansion	-30	22
2023-10-27	1.88	2.25	-24.22	61674	Downward Expansion	-68	60
2023-10-20	1.92	2.27	-23.66	70215	Downward Expansion	-65	58

Price vs TrendAbove+11.2%

Trend directionFalling-7.3%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-49.7%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+12.7%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-8.6%

Relative strength directionImproving+29.7%

Price momentumPositive+2.1%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.42×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

45 / ±100

-6.4 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

35 /100

-43.6 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

RFG Directional State ↗ RFG Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance37

Rotation Up33

Upward Expansion67

Deceleration88

Rotation Down28

Downward Expansion19

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 22%Rotation Up 8%Upward Expansion 18%Rotation Down 1%Downward Expansion 51%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-09-25	2026-10-09	New	-6.1%
Rotation Up	2026-08-14	2026-09-18	Developing	-1.9%
Downward Expansion	2026-02-06	2026-08-07	Extended	-17.2%
Balance	2025-12-12	2026-01-30	Developing	-3.6%
Downward Expansion	2025-09-05	2025-12-05	Established	+9.6%
Rotation Down	2025-08-22	2025-08-29	New	-12.7%
Balance	2025-08-08	2025-08-15	New	+12.8%
Rotation Up	2025-07-25	2025-08-01	New	-1.5%
Balance	2025-07-04	2025-07-18	New	+4.1%
Downward Expansion	2025-01-10	2025-06-27	Established	-7.9%
Balance	2024-11-22	2025-01-03	Developing	-12.5%
Downward Expansion	2024-09-20	2024-11-15	Developing	+11.4%
Balance	2024-08-16	2024-09-13	Developing	-5.6%
Upward Expansion	2024-07-05	2024-08-09	Developing	-7.6%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing64

Stage 2 · Advancing31

Stage 3 · Distribution9

Stage 4 · Declining44

Legacy result: Stage 1 · Stage 1B · Basing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AXJO

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 10/100
Current Relative Strength: -8.65
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +2.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +4.8%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 42th percentile12 in cohort

Test RFG trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.32×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.42×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore RFG Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity AUD 1.03falling

Slow Activity AUD 0.9275rising

Trend Reference AUD 0.8952+11.2% close margin

Current Fair Value AUD 1.98-49.7% close margin

Structural low AUD 0.56shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +7.8%

Annualized volatility +65.3%

From structural high -40.1%

From structural low +77.7%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Regime survived	Read
Near term	13	-2.7%-26.6% to +25.0%	+30.8%	+30.8%	-2.8%	+61.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	6	+0.2%-29.5% to +9.9%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-1.0%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	-18.3%-22.5% to +11.3%	+25.0%	+25.0%	-15.5%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	-12.7%-32.5% to +1.4%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-9.5%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

RFG Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map