Weekly structural research · NASDAQ · Healthcare

MMSI Stage Analysis

Merit Medical Systems Inc

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close USD 85.37Tenure NewBenchmark QQQ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and contracting.

Direction 44−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 38/100directional strength

Maturity 69/100lifecycle context

Confidence 81/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Widecontracting separation

Price acceptance +16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +0.7%USD 84.74 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	85.37	74.53	-5.26	3110415	Deceleration	44	38
2026-09-25	87.50	74.10	-2.64	2771257	Upward Expansion	49	47
2026-09-18	85.37	73.76	-2.14	2689319	Upward Expansion	61	55
2026-09-11	86.36	73.65	-0.44	2890786	Upward Expansion	65	64
2026-09-04	89.60	73.50	2.30	3201431	Upward Expansion	68	86
2026-08-28	90.49	73.26	3.07	2864853	Upward Expansion	72	89
2026-08-21	90.78	72.95	3.30	3532135	Rotation Up	80	93
2026-08-14	90.76	72.64	0.23	5291303	Rotation Up	62	86
2026-08-07	89.04	72.36	-0.96	7384578	Rotation Up	66	84
2026-07-31	85.01	72.27	-1.03	7431280	Rotation Up	56	72
2026-07-24	74.32	72.32	-13.40	3178904	Rotation Up	30	48
2026-07-17	73.99	72.76	-15.69	3562079	Rotation Up	12	31
2026-07-10	73.44	73.21	-20.31	3242715	Downward Expansion	11	28
2026-07-03	71.09	73.66	-22.27	2766060	Downward Expansion	-0	17
2026-06-26	71.73	74.07	-21.70	5779794	Downward Expansion	-16	19
2026-06-19	67.22	74.56	-30.64	3449132	Downward Expansion	-40	29
2026-06-12	66.53	75.23	-30.39	4239439	Downward Expansion	-46	38
2026-06-05	64.48	75.85	-31.81	3533630	Downward Expansion	-61	53
2026-05-29	63.06	76.62	-37.12	3147301	Downward Expansion	-64	66
2026-05-22	64.17	77.43	-35.06	2898074	Downward Expansion	-65	74
2026-05-15	61.36	78.05	-38.01	4587796	Downward Expansion	-74	78
2026-05-08	61.27	78.73	-39.17	5158314	Downward Expansion	-80	65
2026-05-01	62.01	79.32	-36.01	6062681	Downward Expansion	-83	64
2026-04-24	68.58	80.06	-29.13	2536374	Downward Expansion	-65	55
2026-04-17	70.93	80.45	-26.03	2592753	Downward Expansion	-64	59
2026-04-10	68.26	80.87	-25.35	2921943	Downward Expansion	-67	82
2026-04-03	67.70	81.45	-23.57	2699931	Downward Expansion	-72	85
2026-03-27	68.73	82.29	-20.37	3996309	Downward Expansion	-71	86
2026-03-20	66.71	83.02	-26.13	5252943	Downward Expansion	-85	90
2026-03-13	69.95	83.78	-24.98	5242941	Downward Expansion	-83	83
2026-03-06	72.66	84.30	-23.69	3772355	Downward Expansion	-81	73
2026-02-27	77.18	84.73	-20.75	4750874	Downward Expansion	-71	52
2026-02-20	82.21	84.98	-16.54	2499235	Downward Expansion	-53	45
2026-02-13	81.66	85.06	-16.76	2787565	Downward Expansion	-55	53
2026-02-06	82.50	85.11	-17.62	3125411	Downward Expansion	-52	48
2026-01-30	81.09	85.47	-21.30	3027356	Balance	-57	46
2026-01-23	81.66	85.89	-21.58	2195107	Balance	-52	31
2026-01-16	82.31	86.28	-21.38	5225327	Balance	-39	17
2026-01-09	86.38	86.61	-18.81	5041314	Balance	7	12
2026-01-02	86.45	86.83	-17.44	1583015	Balance	-10	13
2025-12-26	87.39	87.12	-18.40	1372247	Balance	-7	6
2025-12-19	87.70	87.38	-17.53	4013182	Balance	-6	5
2025-12-12	86.70	87.63	-18.45	3430731	Balance	-11	6
2025-12-05	83.43	88.04	-23.47	2877176	Balance	-23	10
2025-11-28	86.59	88.45	-20.35	2148983	Balance	-11	12
2025-11-21	87.20	88.75	-16.42	4046631	Balance	-17	16
2025-11-14	85.09	89.00	-21.48	3290833	Downward Expansion	-26	18
2025-11-07	87.55	89.19	-19.91	3652351	Downward Expansion	-26	16
2025-10-31	87.54	89.34	-22.85	3978067	Downward Expansion	-38	29
2025-10-24	82.74	89.51	-26.17	2038970	Downward Expansion	-58	53
2025-10-17	81.86	90.21	-25.84	2037055	Downward Expansion	-62	72
2025-10-10	78.99	90.87	-27.16	2505474	Downward Expansion	-73	74
2025-10-03	84.21	91.54	-24.56	2836248	Downward Expansion	-57	59
2025-09-26	80.20	92.06	-27.72	4267171	Downward Expansion	-74	53
2025-09-19	83.56	92.79	-25.55	5369166	Downward Expansion	-55	29
2025-09-12	85.53	93.44	-22.68	2722012	Downward Expansion	-44	26
2025-09-05	92.97	94.20	-14.91	2356391	Downward Expansion	-22	19
2025-08-29	90.54	94.74	-16.78	2438799	Downward Expansion	-42	29
2025-08-22	89.45	95.35	-18.38	2227458	Downward Expansion	-59	47
2025-08-15	85.51	95.85	-23.00	2195912	Downward Expansion	-63	74
2025-08-08	85.58	96.43	-22.91	2381782	Downward Expansion	-64	80
2025-08-01	84.78	96.79	-21.19	5056499	Downward Expansion	-70	80
2025-07-25	84.69	97.16	-23.36	3221775	Downward Expansion	-77	79
2025-07-18	83.02	97.58	-24.46	5823415	Downward Expansion	-81	67
2025-07-11	93.49	98.08	-14.12	2732938	Downward Expansion	-52	41
2025-07-04	93.58	98.39	-14.41	1886924	Downward Expansion	-54	45
2025-06-27	93.50	98.75	-13.26	3359151	Downward Expansion	-54	39
2025-06-20	91.98	99.10	-11.21	2285344	Downward Expansion	-60	42
2025-06-13	92.97	99.55	-10.26	2639053	Downward Expansion	-58	32
2025-06-06	95.28	99.84	-8.50	2204958	Downward Expansion	-38	19
2025-05-30	95.03	100.09	-6.83	1880069	Downward Expansion	-37	18
2025-05-23	95.38	100.22	-4.66	2675321	Downward Expansion	-36	17
2025-05-16	98.83	100.24	-3.47	3227264	Downward Expansion	-37	19
2025-05-09	95.83	100.16	0.11	3786820	Downward Expansion	-54	36
2025-05-02	95.66	100.11	-0.12	3625483	Downward Expansion	-56	57
2025-04-25	94.61	100.11	2.31	4577875	Rotation Down	-57	65
2025-04-18	90.89	100.21	4.88	2224502	Rotation Down	-42	57
2025-04-11	92.04	100.50	4.11	6283492	Balance	-41	44
2025-04-04	92.50	100.64	12.88	4852768	Balance	-33	29
2025-03-28	103.94	100.77	14.94	2413955	Balance	27	19
2025-03-21	101.68	100.53	10.36	4293739	Balance	19	21
2025-03-14	98.94	100.25	8.18	2934666	Balance	13	19
2025-03-07	99.95	99.98	7.02	4133530	Upward Expansion	25	14
2025-02-28	102.04	99.67	6.07	4426782	Upward Expansion	54	35
2025-02-21	103.16	99.22	3.88	2201980	Upward Expansion	61	67
2025-02-14	108.14	98.63	6.59	1641379	Upward Expansion	65	76
2025-02-07	109.12	97.88	10.86	2377801	Upward Expansion	72	75
2025-01-31	108.88	97.12	11.03	2763371	Deceleration	71	58
2025-01-24	104.64	96.34	5.47	2091789	Deceleration	57	26
2025-01-17	102.90	95.72	5.42	3127680	Deceleration	27	19
2025-01-10	96.16	95.03	1.43	2047920	Deceleration	2	20
2025-01-03	95.89	94.55	-1.12	1896879	Deceleration	14	20
2024-12-27	97.30	94.10	-0.50	1000141	Upward Expansion	35	20
2024-12-20	98.22	93.56	1.36	3403253	Upward Expansion	47	36
2024-12-13	102.76	93.02	3.71	2180937	Upward Expansion	64	55
2024-12-06	104.40	92.32	6.35	1730379	Upward Expansion	70	75
2024-11-29	103.90	91.54	9.53	1358169	Upward Expansion	69	80
2024-11-22	105.33	90.71	12.09	1632058	Upward Expansion	81	81
2024-11-15	101.83	89.65	10.62	2163161	Upward Expansion	71	63
2024-11-08	102.74	88.66	8.01	2963355	Upward Expansion	80	59
2024-11-01	98.80	87.66	9.72	2485628	Upward Expansion	69	46
2024-10-25	96.00	86.78	4.98	1205060	Upward Expansion	46	35
2024-10-18	96.48	86.10	5.60	1961732	Upward Expansion	51	42
2024-10-11	94.35	85.30	3.62	1607245	Upward Expansion	62	52
2024-10-04	95.63	84.55	6.48	1673390	Upward Expansion	65	59
2024-09-27	97.68	83.86	8.99	1511334	Upward Expansion	68	66
2024-09-20	99.56	83.15	12.32	3279263	Upward Expansion	82	83
2024-09-13	96.16	82.49	10.27	2254247	Upward Expansion	72	84
2024-09-06	96.58	81.94	17.55	1922524	Upward Expansion	79	89
2024-08-30	96.68	81.38	11.36	1791685	Upward Expansion	86	92
2024-08-23	93.29	80.80	6.95	2096428	Upward Expansion	80	85
2024-08-16	90.87	80.30	5.36	2185671	Upward Expansion	75	73
2024-08-09	90.49	79.90	10.65	2237767	Upward Expansion	78	61
2024-08-02	88.74	79.52	9.05	3136874	Upward Expansion	76	58
2024-07-26	85.52	79.07	1.90	1849478	Upward Expansion	63	59
2024-07-19	85.49	78.75	-0.85	2243709	Upward Expansion	64	72
2024-07-12	86.34	78.42	-4.23	2162409	Upward Expansion	74	77
2024-07-05	85.53	77.93	-5.89	1510915	Upward Expansion	73	72
2024-06-28	85.95	77.41	-2.54	3024609	Upward Expansion	80	64
2024-06-21	82.21	76.97	-7.31	1672522	Upward Expansion	63	51
2024-06-14	81.80	76.64	-8.12	1884784	Upward Expansion	62	65
2024-06-07	82.38	76.29	-4.79	932679	Upward Expansion	69	75
2024-05-31	81.15	75.86	-4.25	1040255	Upward Expansion	63	75
2024-05-24	81.92	75.55	-5.44	1607592	Upward Expansion	68	73
2024-05-17	81.89	75.12	-4.73	2024367	Deceleration	70	59
2024-05-10	80.83	74.56	-4.59	1518224	Deceleration	55	36
2024-05-03	78.97	74.02	-6.11	2439289	Deceleration	41	19
2024-04-26	73.78	73.64	-12.09	1543143	Deceleration	-18	21
2024-04-19	72.03	73.48	-11.52	1648027	Deceleration	-24	23
2024-04-12	72.63	73.35	-16.20	1473749	Deceleration	-21	30
2024-04-05	72.35	73.20	-17.58	1614495	Deceleration	-6	22
2024-03-29	75.75	72.91	-14.99	1568696	Deceleration	6	22
2024-03-22	72.31	72.56	-19.75	1711444	Deceleration	-4	24
2024-03-15	71.86	72.39	-18.41	2958510	Deceleration	10	17
2024-03-08	75.20	72.26	-16.12	2183558	Upward Expansion	42	25
2024-03-01	76.26	72.05	-16.68	2369087	Upward Expansion	49	35
2024-02-23	79.81	71.90	-11.57	1867824	Upward Expansion	65	50
2024-02-16	79.45	71.69	-11.21	1945453	Upward Expansion	65	55
2024-02-09	79.98	71.78	-12.34	1882344	Upward Expansion	70	68
2024-02-02	79.31	71.93	-11.87	1799930	Upward Expansion	70	75
2024-01-26	78.12	71.94	-12.58	3431074	Rotation Up	65	71
2024-01-19	79.00	72.13	-11.48	2823388	Rotation Up	46	65
2024-01-12	79.00	72.23	-9.48	3691860	Rotation Up	49	64
2024-01-05	75.36	72.38	-11.34	4652029	Rotation Up	36	46
2023-12-29	75.96	72.65	-14.01	1484169	Balance	31	29
2023-12-22	75.59	72.93	-14.76	2313689	Balance	13	17
2023-12-15	71.56	73.13	-19.13	3864210	Balance	-5	11
2023-12-08	69.82	73.56	-19.05	8303087	Balance	-5	13
2023-12-01	72.71	74.04	-15.81	955907	Balance	2	17
2023-11-24	72.32	74.44	-16.64	460273	Balance	-1	17
2023-11-17	71.37	74.74	-17.47	1159767	Downward Expansion	-14	19
2023-11-10	69.64	74.97	-18.28	1186482	Downward Expansion	-34	20
2023-11-03	71.85	75.23	-13.67	1791300	Downward Expansion	-40	29
2023-10-27	69.00	75.33	-12.21	2077976	Downward Expansion	-56	44
2023-10-20	64.83	75.50	-19.96	1213802	Downward Expansion	-65	49
2023-10-13	64.63	75.74	-22.73	1495717	Downward Expansion	-60	44

Price vs TrendAbove+14.5%

Trend directionRising+3.1%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+0.7%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+15.7%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-5.3%

Relative strength directionImproving+17.0%

Price momentumPositive+26.1%

Volume balanceDemand-led2.47×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

44 / ±100

-23.5 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

38 /100

-47.5 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

MMSI Directional State ↗ MMSI Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance32

Rotation Up31

Upward Expansion65

Deceleration91

Rotation Down28

Downward Expansion20

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 14%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 31%Deceleration 10%Rotation Down 1%Downward Expansion 37%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-10-02	2026-10-02	New	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-08-28	2026-09-25	Developing	-3.3%
Rotation Up	2026-07-17	2026-08-21	Developing	+22.7%
Downward Expansion	2026-02-06	2026-07-10	Established	-11.0%
Balance	2025-11-21	2026-01-30	Developing	-7.0%
Downward Expansion	2025-05-02	2025-11-14	Extended	-11.0%
Rotation Down	2025-04-18	2025-04-25	New	+4.1%
Balance	2025-03-14	2025-04-11	Developing	-7.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-07	2025-03-07	Developing	-8.4%
Deceleration	2025-01-03	2025-01-31	Developing	+13.5%
Upward Expansion	2024-05-24	2024-12-27	Extended	+18.8%
Deceleration	2024-03-15	2024-05-17	Developing	+14.0%
Upward Expansion	2024-02-02	2024-03-08	Developing	-5.2%
Rotation Up	2024-01-05	2024-01-26	New	+3.7%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing45

Stage 2 · Advancing86

Stage 3 · Distribution38

Stage 4 · Declining14

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2A · Early advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 43/100
Current Relative Strength: -5.26
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +26.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -2.0%
Healthcare regime cohort: 69th percentile105 in cohort

Test MMSI trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.81×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume2.47×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore MMSI Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 86.35falling

Slow Activity USD 79.19rising

Trend Reference USD 74.53+14.5% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 84.74+0.7% close margin

Structural low USD 59.74shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +5.6%

Annualized volatility +29.5%

From structural high -9.9%

From structural low +42.9%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs QQQ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	12	+0.4%-18.9% to +13.5%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-1.7%	+58.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	5	-3.5%-23.7% to +13.8%	+40.0%	+40.0%	-3.4%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	-2.4%-10.4% to +33.8%	+40.0%	+40.0%	-9.9%	+20.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+12.3%-1.3% to +37.7%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+26.5%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

MMSI Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map