Weekly structural research · VIE · Consumer Cyclical

PYT Stage Analysis

Polytec Holding AG

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close EUR 5.44Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^ATX

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Established expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 85−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 63/100directional strength

Maturity 78/100lifecycle context

Confidence 81/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +58.9%EUR 3.42 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	5.44	4.39	13.63	241984	Upward Expansion	85	63
2026-09-18	4.92	4.34	5.25	268937	Upward Expansion	64	55
2026-09-11	5.10	4.31	7.82	75463	Upward Expansion	73	74
2026-09-04	5.10	4.27	8.32	91893	Upward Expansion	79	86
2026-08-28	5.00	4.24	7.40	56847	Upward Expansion	76	85
2026-08-21	4.90	4.21	7.76	9942	Upward Expansion	68	74
2026-08-14	5.00	4.17	8.45	121949	Upward Expansion	80	70
2026-08-07	4.84	4.14	6.43	11155	Upward Expansion	73	55
2026-07-31	4.69	4.09	6.33	10659	Upward Expansion	62	52
2026-07-24	4.68	4.04	6.08	18987	Upward Expansion	62	54
2026-07-17	4.59	4.00	5.50	6979	Upward Expansion	61	53
2026-07-10	4.78	3.96	7.78	10610	Upward Expansion	75	62
2026-07-03	4.77	3.90	6.20	48398	Upward Expansion	78	61
2026-06-26	4.40	3.86	0.33	6955	Upward Expansion	64	63
2026-06-19	4.47	3.82	-0.12	8216	Upward Expansion	67	82
2026-06-12	4.62	3.78	7.49	46352	Upward Expansion	75	89
2026-06-05	4.70	3.73	12.41	92589	Upward Expansion	86	92
2026-05-29	4.55	3.67	7.66	115232	Upward Expansion	82	85
2026-05-22	4.20	3.62	2.03	82870	Upward Expansion	67	77
2026-05-15	4.36	3.58	7.87	122997	Upward Expansion	83	81
2026-05-08	4.17	3.54	2.70	174781	Deceleration	74	61
2026-05-01	3.88	3.51	-2.82	112765	Deceleration	47	28
2026-04-24	3.64	3.48	-8.25	63994	Deceleration	25	14
2026-04-17	3.66	3.46	-10.98	48371	Deceleration	12	10
2026-04-10	3.68	3.45	-8.36	121619	Deceleration	10	15
2026-04-03	3.56	3.44	-5.74	54797	Deceleration	5	19
2026-03-27	3.40	3.43	-6.91	219539	Deceleration	6	21
2026-03-20	3.48	3.43	-3.37	58281	Deceleration	17	22
2026-03-13	3.54	3.42	-2.98	123235	Deceleration	32	24
2026-03-06	3.70	3.41	-1.21	172394	Upward Expansion	44	32
2026-02-27	3.80	3.40	-3.83	57218	Upward Expansion	62	55
2026-02-20	3.89	3.38	-3.33	61657	Upward Expansion	66	72
2026-02-13	3.95	3.36	1.65	311149	Upward Expansion	67	87
2026-02-06	4.20	3.34	7.68	120803	Upward Expansion	87	95
2026-01-30	4.13	3.32	7.46	219314	Upward Expansion	93	97
2026-01-23	3.88	3.29	2.91	128565	Upward Expansion	89	91
2026-01-16	3.89	3.27	4.49	189540	Rotation Up	91	82
2026-01-09	3.32	3.24	-9.43	99131	Rotation Up	20	34
2026-01-02	3.33	3.24	-8.33	61017	Rotation Up	21	36
2025-12-26	3.34	3.25	-6.15	27072	Rotation Up	22	36
2025-12-19	3.34	3.25	-5.74	86332	Balance	22	27
2025-12-12	3.26	3.26	-5.47	97271	Balance	11	21
2025-12-05	3.31	3.26	-3.44	57568	Balance	-11	20
2025-11-28	3.30	3.25	-2.22	76224	Balance	-20	13
2025-11-21	3.20	3.24	-0.71	50974	Rotation Down	-42	25
2025-11-14	3.19	3.22	-2.19	145734	Rotation Down	-55	39
2025-11-07	2.93	3.20	-8.21	63931	Rotation Down	-48	55
2025-10-31	3.06	3.18	-5.31	171128	Rotation Down	-34	34
2025-10-24	3.07	3.17	-2.35	82935	Rotation Down	-38	49
2025-10-17	3.12	3.16	1.00	39794	Deceleration	-21	35
2025-10-10	3.19	3.15	1.23	63826	Deceleration	2	22
2025-10-03	3.01	3.14	-6.48	144478	Deceleration	-16	27
2025-09-26	3.20	3.13	1.26	40813	Deceleration	7	10
2025-09-19	3.20	3.12	1.51	37800	Deceleration	15	11
2025-09-12	3.32	3.09	4.45	70398	Deceleration	29	22
2025-09-05	3.29	3.06	4.29	22747	Deceleration	37	25
2025-08-29	3.33	3.02	4.74	36304	Deceleration	41	28
2025-08-22	3.30	2.99	-0.28	31244	Deceleration	39	27
2025-08-15	3.30	2.95	-1.92	52885	Deceleration	51	34
2025-08-08	3.30	2.92	0.13	75410	Upward Expansion	52	35
2025-08-01	3.32	2.89	6.07	26551	Upward Expansion	55	40
2025-07-25	3.36	2.85	4.01	18734	Deceleration	58	42
2025-07-18	3.32	2.80	4.31	45539	Deceleration	45	38
2025-07-11	3.35	2.76	4.85	49705	Deceleration	47	39
2025-07-04	3.29	2.72	4.89	41512	Deceleration	46	40
2025-06-27	3.28	2.68	3.26	57404	Upward Expansion	49	44
2025-06-20	3.22	2.65	2.83	32195	Upward Expansion	63	58
2025-06-13	3.32	2.61	4.91	97802	Upward Expansion	66	85
2025-06-06	3.35	2.58	3.01	95794	Upward Expansion	68	88
2025-05-30	3.60	2.54	10.62	69100	Upward Expansion	87	95
2025-05-23	3.58	2.51	10.65	261696	Upward Expansion	90	92
2025-05-16	3.32	2.47	0.99	113238	Upward Expansion	87	82
2025-05-09	2.90	2.45	-9.70	88007	Deceleration	69	46
2025-05-02	2.89	2.44	-6.60	77306	Deceleration	58	30
2025-04-25	2.67	2.44	-13.11	39267	Deceleration	36	26
2025-04-18	2.51	2.44	-15.84	45934	Rotation Up	37	24
2025-04-11	2.48	2.46	-13.01	99668	Rotation Up	45	32
2025-04-04	2.63	2.48	-9.48	122060	Rotation Up	36	44
2025-03-28	2.77	2.49	-14.64	115808	Rotation Up	39	75
2025-03-21	2.86	2.51	-14.20	57406	Rotation Up	46	80
2025-03-14	2.85	2.52	-15.82	82416	Rotation Up	44	77
2025-03-07	2.91	2.53	-14.59	183995	Rotation Up	53	74
2025-02-28	2.74	2.54	-17.41	172402	Rotation Up	25	33
2025-02-21	2.34	2.56	-28.39	77797	Downward Expansion	-18	19
2025-02-14	2.30	2.59	-30.94	63097	Downward Expansion	-24	16
2025-02-07	2.32	2.63	-27.46	89337	Downward Expansion	-35	23
2025-01-31	2.34	2.66	-27.39	80964	Downward Expansion	-38	26
2025-01-24	2.18	2.70	-32.74	77162	Downward Expansion	-46	36
2025-01-17	2.28	2.73	-29.27	86367	Downward Expansion	-49	44
2025-01-10	2.31	2.77	-26.59	129894	Downward Expansion	-54	54
2025-01-03	2.17	2.81	-31.75	95430	Downward Expansion	-67	65
2024-12-27	2.06	2.86	-35.57	117932	Downward Expansion	-73	68
2024-12-20	2.07	2.91	-35.16	247375	Downward Expansion	-75	69
2024-12-13	2.10	2.96	-35.92	136620	Downward Expansion	-77	70
2024-12-06	2.17	3.01	-33.29	171184	Downward Expansion	-73	74
2024-11-29	2.20	3.06	-32.12	180031	Downward Expansion	-75	82
2024-11-22	2.18	3.10	-33.25	127237	Downward Expansion	-84	90
2024-11-15	2.24	3.14	-32.52	250094	Downward Expansion	-86	92
2024-11-08	2.31	3.18	-31.08	221591	Downward Expansion	-89	93
2024-11-01	2.55	3.21	-24.36	102901	Downward Expansion	-74	89
2024-10-25	2.53	3.24	-26.88	92896	Downward Expansion	-83	92
2024-10-18	2.58	3.26	-27.14	137774	Downward Expansion	-86	93
2024-10-11	2.73	3.29	-23.46	76687	Downward Expansion	-80	88
2024-10-04	2.72	3.31	-24.39	186054	Downward Expansion	-88	87
2024-09-27	2.90	3.33	-21.03	114209	Downward Expansion	-80	78
2024-09-20	3.03	3.35	-17.51	105131	Downward Expansion	-69	71
2024-09-13	3.01	3.36	-18.45	263495	Downward Expansion	-76	76
2024-09-06	3.09	3.38	-16.42	526044	Downward Expansion	-71	71
2024-08-30	3.15	3.40	-18.93	69725	Downward Expansion	-66	69
2024-08-23	3.10	3.42	-20.17	107431	Downward Expansion	-76	69
2024-08-16	3.20	3.44	-17.09	47521	Downward Expansion	-69	55
2024-08-09	3.25	3.45	-15.09	50129	Downward Expansion	-64	51
2024-08-02	3.32	3.47	-13.17	41914	Downward Expansion	-58	49
2024-07-26	3.38	3.48	-15.82	21010	Downward Expansion	-53	43
2024-07-19	3.31	3.49	-18.25	27555	Balance	-59	48
2024-07-12	3.29	3.50	-20.21	46844	Balance	-61	39
2024-07-05	3.45	3.50	-17.20	30276	Balance	-35	23
2024-06-28	3.34	3.50	-18.38	43463	Balance	-45	26
2024-06-21	3.46	3.51	-15.84	40976	Balance	-6	6
2024-06-14	3.50	3.51	-14.34	36654	Balance	12	12
2024-06-07	3.55	3.53	-16.76	42352	Rotation Up	17	29
2024-05-31	3.55	3.54	-18.19	79633	Rotation Up	16	26
2024-05-24	3.59	3.55	-19.25	64394	Balance	16	27
2024-05-17	3.64	3.56	-18.99	54069	Balance	0	15
2024-05-10	3.62	3.57	-18.81	58187	Downward Expansion	-15	12
2024-05-03	3.55	3.58	-18.85	102590	Downward Expansion	-31	21
2024-04-26	3.27	3.59	-24.87	217652	Downward Expansion	-60	39
2024-04-19	3.29	3.62	-24.73	115455	Downward Expansion	-61	40
2024-04-12	3.30	3.65	-25.40	102661	Downward Expansion	-62	42
2024-04-05	3.40	3.67	-23.92	106259	Downward Expansion	-58	42
2024-03-29	3.35	3.70	-24.93	52874	Downward Expansion	-61	57
2024-03-22	3.30	3.73	-25.80	61657	Downward Expansion	-69	64
2024-03-15	3.38	3.77	-22.71	63630	Downward Expansion	-63	64
2024-03-08	3.30	3.81	-24.41	94025	Downward Expansion	-73	69
2024-03-01	3.50	3.84	-20.37	39857	Downward Expansion	-56	45
2024-02-23	3.44	3.88	-22.16	121039	Downward Expansion	-64	40
2024-02-16	3.50	3.92	-21.87	104980	Downward Expansion	-59	32
2024-02-09	3.67	3.95	-17.33	46944	Downward Expansion	-35	20
2024-02-02	3.70	3.98	-19.11	43659	Downward Expansion	-36	19
2024-01-26	3.70	4.01	-19.80	83944	Downward Expansion	-36	21
2024-01-19	3.61	4.04	-19.56	49650	Downward Expansion	-41	26
2024-01-12	3.75	4.08	-18.30	48198	Downward Expansion	-42	29
2024-01-05	3.80	4.12	-18.55	83333	Downward Expansion	-57	42
2023-12-29	3.50	4.15	-25.23	126699	Downward Expansion	-66	59
2023-12-22	3.55	4.19	-24.12	237485	Downward Expansion	-65	70
2023-12-15	3.57	4.23	-23.33	225826	Downward Expansion	-65	81
2023-12-08	3.40	4.28	-26.42	371385	Downward Expansion	-82	84
2023-12-01	3.60	4.32	-22.65	132604	Downward Expansion	-75	68
2023-11-24	3.54	4.35	-22.93	120407	Downward Expansion	-84	61
2023-11-17	3.86	4.38	-16.85	67547	Downward Expansion	-65	52
2023-11-10	3.96	4.40	-13.21	65664	Downward Expansion	-61	52
2023-11-03	4.00	4.42	-12.19	89959	Downward Expansion	-63	55
2023-10-27	3.78	4.44	-12.77	61051	Downward Expansion	-77	71
2023-10-20	3.82	4.46	-12.65	70558	Downward Expansion	-79	72
2023-10-13	4.02	4.49	-12.12	50587	Downward Expansion	-66	75
2023-10-06	3.98	4.51	-12.70	78869	Downward Expansion	-73	84

Price vs TrendAbove+23.8%

Trend directionRising+10.0%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+58.9%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+28.7%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+13.6%

Relative strength directionImproving+13.3%

Price momentumPositive+60.0%

Volume balanceDemand-led2.14×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

85 / ±100

+8.9 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

63 /100

-21.7 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

PYT Directional State ↗ PYT Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance11

Rotation Up71

Upward Expansion85

Deceleration65

Rotation Down18

Downward Expansion9

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 8%Rotation Up 9%Upward Expansion 23%Deceleration 17%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 40%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-05-15	2026-09-25	Established	+24.6%
Deceleration	2026-03-13	2026-05-08	Developing	+17.9%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-23	2026-03-06	Developing	-4.6%
Rotation Up	2025-12-26	2026-01-16	New	+16.5%
Balance	2025-11-28	2025-12-19	New	+1.2%
Rotation Down	2025-10-24	2025-11-21	Developing	+4.2%
Deceleration	2025-08-15	2025-10-17	Developing	-5.5%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-01	2025-08-08	New	-0.6%
Deceleration	2025-07-04	2025-07-25	New	+2.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-16	2025-06-27	Developing	-1.2%
Deceleration	2025-04-25	2025-05-09	New	+8.6%
Rotation Up	2025-02-28	2025-04-18	Developing	-8.4%
Downward Expansion	2024-07-26	2025-02-21	Extended	-30.8%
Balance	2024-06-14	2024-07-19	Developing	-5.4%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing19

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution52

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^ATX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 95/100
Current Relative Strength: 13.63
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +60.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +28.3%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 82th percentile17 in cohort

Test PYT trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume3.34×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume2.14×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore PYT Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 5.16rising

Slow Activity EUR 4.70rising

Trend Reference EUR 4.39+23.8% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 3.42+58.9% close margin

Structural low EUR 3.30shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +5.2%

Annualized volatility +28.2%

From structural high -2.9%

From structural low +87.6%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^ATX	Regime survived	Read
Near term	9	+0.9%-10.5% to +5.9%	+77.8%	+77.8%	-0.9%	+66.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	3	-0.6%-6.1% to +14.6%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-9.8%	+33.3%	Too little matched history
Extended	2	+8.4%-3.9% to +20.6%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-4.8%	+50.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	1	+31.5%+31.5% to +31.5%	+100.0%	+100.0%	-0.6%	+100.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

PYT Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map