Weekly structural research · ASX · Basic Materials

RGL Stage Analysis

Riversgold Limited

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close AUD 0.01Tenure NewBenchmark ^AXJO

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Balance after decline

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction -19−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 14/100directional strength

Maturity 32/100lifecycle context

Confidence 65/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance +0.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +28.7%AUD 0.007772 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	0.01	0.0118	-6.96	6154272	Balance	-19	14
2026-09-18	0.011	0.012	2.32	11090863	Balance	-10	16
2026-09-11	0.012	0.0122	12.91	4572289	Downward Expansion	-1	12
2026-09-04	0.011	0.0122	1.94	17804283	Downward Expansion	-29	20
2026-08-28	0.011	0.0123	2.24	34952395	Downward Expansion	-33	21
2026-08-21	0.01	0.0124	-5.54	505348	Downward Expansion	-39	23
2026-08-14	0.01	0.0127	-5.10	7839726	Downward Expansion	-43	30
2026-08-07	0.01	0.0128	-5.60	1053862	Downward Expansion	-58	46
2026-07-31	0.01	0.0127	-1.55	308618	Downward Expansion	-62	70
2026-07-24	0.009	0.0126	-8.22	1115165	Downward Expansion	-64	77
2026-07-17	0.007	0.0126	-28.11	767845	Rotation Down	-83	87
2026-07-10	0.008	0.0126	-17.61	19308549	Rotation Down	-53	70
2026-07-03	0.011	0.0125	13.67	4757019	Rotation Down	-34	58
2026-06-26	0.009	0.0124	-4.84	908098	Rotation Down	-51	64
2026-06-19	0.011	0.0123	16.61	13208382	Balance	-27	41
2026-06-12	0.011	0.0121	18.59	8246676	Balance	-8	24
2026-06-05	0.012	0.012	33.97	15257821	Balance	2	9
2026-05-29	0.014	0.0118	57.07	1413961	Balance	17	11
2026-05-22	0.013	0.0116	49.97	9197341	Upward Expansion	19	9
2026-05-15	0.013	0.0115	53.44	15882318	Upward Expansion	35	19
2026-05-08	0.014	0.0114	66.24	33059589	Upward Expansion	40	31
2026-05-01	0.015	0.0111	82.25	43985612	Upward Expansion	53	36
2026-04-24	0.015	0.0109	85.74	25417156	Deceleration	51	26
2026-04-17	0.015	0.0106	87.13	31722151	Deceleration	38	17
2026-04-10	0.014	0.0102	78.61	25849957	Deceleration	31	19
2026-04-03	0.012	0.009883	63.16	56243895	Deceleration	31	20
2026-03-27	0.012	0.009617	67.42	39167464	Deceleration	37	20
2026-03-20	0.012	0.00935	72.74	60085824	Upward Expansion	43	32
2026-03-13	0.0145	0.009083	108.64	51007953	Upward Expansion	57	43
2026-03-06	0.017	0.008733	144.59	42054165	Upward Expansion	66	51
2026-02-27	0.018	0.0083	157.74	41168702	Upward Expansion	75	53
2026-02-20	0.014	0.007817	110.21	32316518	Upward Expansion	60	51
2026-02-13	0.014	0.007483	119.48	50244407	Upward Expansion	65	69
2026-02-06	0.013	0.007183	114.37	77447058	Upward Expansion	67	83
2026-01-30	0.016	0.006883	167.49	158985910	Upward Expansion	84	91
2026-01-23	0.018	0.006483	214.25	266661513	Upward Expansion	97	95
2026-01-16	0.011	0.006017	101.12	28588581	Upward Expansion	88	82
2026-01-09	0.009	0.005783	72.13	40057784	Upward Expansion	73	57
2026-01-02	0.0075	0.005617	46.13	15187586	Deceleration	55	30
2025-12-26	0.007	0.0055	37.53	11925843	Deceleration	37	17
2025-12-19	0.007	0.005433	41.26	3940298	Deceleration	33	18
2025-12-12	0.007	0.005333	42.12	10930101	Deceleration	32	19
2025-12-05	0.006	0.00525	24.58	22513841	Deceleration	31	19
2025-11-28	0.006	0.0052	25.83	24312684	Deceleration	37	21
2025-11-21	0.007	0.005133	51.73	12001059	Upward Expansion	44	32
2025-11-14	0.0075	0.005033	61.14	16947788	Upward Expansion	58	43
2025-11-07	0.007	0.004933	50.48	25992123	Upward Expansion	62	55
2025-10-31	0.008	0.004867	72.53	24684244	Upward Expansion	65	74
2025-10-24	0.008	0.00475	73.30	37410420	Upward Expansion	67	81
2025-10-17	0.009	0.004617	98.92	35760094	Upward Expansion	84	86
2025-10-10	0.007	0.00445	58.49	59312261	Upward Expansion	69	75
2025-10-03	0.008	0.004367	82.21	122179433	Upward Expansion	83	75
2025-09-26	0.006	0.00425	41.30	109877159	Balance	32	32
2025-09-19	0.004	0.004217	-5.37	1645227	Balance	-29	12
2025-09-12	0.004	0.00425	-6.91	11115285	Balance	-34	14
2025-09-05	0.004	0.004283	-7.14	24186106	Balance	-40	16
2025-08-29	0.004	0.00425	-8.59	35076226	Balance	-41	18
2025-08-22	0.004	0.004217	-8.93	43167639	Balance	-42	28
2025-08-15	0.004	0.004183	-9.27	9305870	Balance	-15	17
2025-08-08	0.004	0.004183	-8.11	9773610	Balance	-13	7
2025-08-01	0.0035	0.004167	-18.44	10784206	Balance	-25	11
2025-07-25	0.004	0.004183	-7.65	12911830	Balance	12	6
2025-07-18	0.005	0.004183	12.96	16036338	Balance	40	16
2025-07-11	0.004	0.004117	-8.83	22869892	Balance	-19	17
2025-07-04	0.004	0.004083	-10.05	4778291	Balance	-9	14
2025-06-27	0.004	0.004083	-9.91	13352227	Balance	-11	11
2025-06-20	0.004	0.004067	-10.81	5429677	Balance	11	6
2025-06-13	0.004	0.004033	-12.20	3755954	Balance	12	6
2025-06-06	0.004	0.004017	-12.85	20811372	Balance	24	11
2025-05-30	0.005	0.003983	8.36	12914883	Balance	51	26
2025-05-23	0.004	0.003917	-13.51	33333987	Balance	13	7
2025-05-16	0.0045	0.0039	-4.14	4739713	Balance	33	15
2025-05-09	0.0045	0.003883	-5.23	3333358	Balance	33	15
2025-05-02	0.004	0.003883	-16.46	3585369	Balance	28	13
2025-04-25	0.004	0.003917	-14.67	11514079	Balance	33	18
2025-04-18	0.0045	0.00395	-3.09	9661238	Balance	46	25
2025-04-11	0.005	0.003967	8.88	17019741	Balance	47	22
2025-04-04	0.0045	0.003933	-3.04	37373289	Balance	37	17
2025-03-28	0.004	0.003933	-18.02	12322912	Balance	8	6
2025-03-21	0.004	0.00395	-18.81	36197664	Rotation Up	23	20
2025-03-14	0.0045	0.003983	-8.49	10939052	Rotation Up	27	47
2025-03-07	0.0045	0.003967	-11.56	3545373	Rotation Up	27	44
2025-02-28	0.005	0.00395	-5.72	29432501	Balance	24	41
2025-02-21	0.005	0.00395	-8.61	78522691	Balance	26	30
2025-02-14	0.005	0.003983	-12.52	169997970	Balance	3	5
2025-02-07	0.003	0.00405	-48.31	36562073	Downward Expansion	-53	39
2025-01-31	0.003	0.00415	-49.61	2236097	Downward Expansion	-54	30
2025-01-24	0.003	0.004233	-50.17	5318024	Downward Expansion	-45	19
2025-01-17	0.004	0.004333	-34.48	3468279	Downward Expansion	-24	16
2025-01-10	0.0035	0.0044	-43.83	7857343	Downward Expansion	-34	15
2025-01-03	0.004	0.004483	-37.35	1999526	Downward Expansion	-34	19
2024-12-27	0.004	0.004583	-39.33	26163272	Downward Expansion	-39	22
2024-12-20	0.003	0.004683	-54.45	20545733	Downward Expansion	-58	34
2024-12-13	0.003	0.004833	-56.96	36063690	Deceleration	-52	33
2024-12-06	0.004	0.005067	-45.03	6975468	Downward Expansion	-43	29
2024-11-29	0.0035	0.005133	-53.51	20289680	Downward Expansion	-58	44
2024-11-22	0.003	0.005233	-61.49	16760462	Downward Expansion	-66	65
2024-11-15	0.0035	0.005333	-55.97	9281256	Downward Expansion	-62	69
2024-11-08	0.003	0.00545	-63.19	57874590	Downward Expansion	-70	74
2024-11-01	0.003	0.005583	-63.07	14198521	Downward Expansion	-72	67
2024-10-25	0.0035	0.005717	-58.14	18238969	Downward Expansion	-66	47
2024-10-18	0.004	0.005867	-53.61	50255506	Downward Expansion	-59	31
2024-10-11	0.0045	0.006	-48.57	10200420	Downward Expansion	-41	21
2024-10-04	0.005	0.006117	-43.72	20445702	Downward Expansion	-39	22
2024-09-27	0.005	0.006217	-45.22	30717201	Downward Expansion	-42	27
2024-09-20	0.005	0.00635	-46.35	6201919	Downward Expansion	-55	36
2024-09-13	0.004	0.00645	-57.28	10733254	Downward Expansion	-66	44
2024-09-06	0.0045	0.00665	-52.23	2151681	Downward Expansion	-60	53
2024-08-30	0.0045	0.0068	-53.55	23705845	Downward Expansion	-62	66
2024-08-23	0.005	0.006983	-48.95	10196392	Downward Expansion	-61	69
2024-08-16	0.004	0.00715	-59.66	10321985	Downward Expansion	-71	69
2024-08-09	0.004	0.00735	-59.48	25063578	Downward Expansion	-71	43
2024-08-02	0.005	0.007617	-51.43	4954694	Downward Expansion	-64	35
2024-07-26	0.006	0.007883	-42.65	41620191	Downward Expansion	-54	30
2024-07-19	0.007	0.00805	-34.59	57891723	Downward Expansion	-52	32
2024-07-12	0.006	0.008217	-44.56	15588912	Downward Expansion	-59	50
2024-07-05	0.0055	0.008417	-49.22	3307102	Downward Expansion	-70	66
2024-06-28	0.006	0.0087	-45.41	5066661	Downward Expansion	-64	57
2024-06-21	0.006	0.009033	-46.56	9141270	Downward Expansion	-65	52
2024-06-14	0.006	0.0093	-46.91	12547475	Downward Expansion	-68	41
2024-06-07	0.007	0.009483	-40.05	9098738	Downward Expansion	-39	26
2024-05-31	0.007	0.00955	-39.98	7286674	Downward Expansion	-42	24
2024-05-24	0.0075	0.009617	-37.08	12108115	Downward Expansion	-39	23
2024-05-17	0.01	0.009733	-18.33	47828996	Downward Expansion	-26	28
2024-05-10	0.006	0.0098	-51.21	4231477	Downward Expansion	-74	79
2024-05-03	0.0065	0.01	-47.58	4906496	Downward Expansion	-69	77
2024-04-26	0.006	0.0102	-52.73	1151916	Downward Expansion	-81	83
2024-04-19	0.007	0.0104	-45.66	4160677	Downward Expansion	-70	71
2024-04-12	0.007	0.0106	-47.94	1143535	Downward Expansion	-73	67
2024-04-05	0.007	0.0108	-48.49	306241	Downward Expansion	-77	71
2024-03-29	0.008	0.0109	-42.80	1445341	Downward Expansion	-66	66
2024-03-22	0.008	0.0111	-42.71	10532852	Downward Expansion	-66	72
2024-03-15	0.008	0.0112	-42.74	1606814	Downward Expansion	-70	76
2024-03-08	0.008	0.0114	-44.84	2173958	Downward Expansion	-72	72
2024-03-01	0.009	0.0116	-38.10	4542422	Downward Expansion	-62	65
2024-02-23	0.008	0.0118	-45.13	5998244	Downward Expansion	-72	65
2024-02-16	0.01	0.012	-32.88	4297609	Downward Expansion	-56	52
2024-02-09	0.009	0.0121	-40.48	6172057	Downward Expansion	-62	57
2024-02-02	0.01	0.0123	-35.70	5525430	Balance	-56	48
2024-01-26	0.01	0.0125	-35.86	4259345	Balance	-56	42
2024-01-19	0.01	0.0126	-36.29	6632670	Balance	-49	26
2024-01-12	0.012	0.0128	-25.96	2710688	Balance	-33	18
2024-01-05	0.013	0.0128	-21.15	5153184	Balance	-26	15
2023-12-29	0.011	0.013	-35.50	1722455	Balance	-38	17
2023-12-22	0.012	0.0132	-30.47	15393664	Balance	-13	14
2023-12-15	0.012	0.0133	-31.10	14962661	Balance	8	19
2023-12-08	0.014	0.0135	-18.58	18691092	Balance	13	22
2023-12-01	0.016	0.0137	-6.90	94008124	Balance	6	12
2023-11-24	0.014	0.014	-19.69	59917337	Downward Expansion	-27	21
2023-11-17	0.0115	0.014	-35.53	12283486	Downward Expansion	-60	63
2023-11-10	0.009	0.0142	-50.46	9667546	Downward Expansion	-77	77
2023-11-03	0.009	0.0144	-52.18	6115062	Downward Expansion	-79	61
2023-10-27	0.011	0.0146	-42.30	15047140	Downward Expansion	-64	38
2023-10-20	0.012	0.0148	-39.69	2988758	Downward Expansion	-45	26
2023-10-13	0.013	0.0149	-38.06	4157270	Downward Expansion	-42	26
2023-10-06	0.012	0.0151	-43.83	4756525	Downward Expansion	-58	41

Price vs TrendBelow-15.1%

Trend directionFalling-6.2%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+28.7%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+16.8%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-7.0%

Relative strength directionWeakening-2.1%

Price momentumNegative-16.7%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.22×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-19 / ±100

+13.7 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

14 /100

-6.6 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

RGL Directional State ↗ RGL Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance56

Rotation Up30

Upward Expansion25

Deceleration48

Rotation Down23

Downward Expansion47

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 30%Rotation Up 2%Upward Expansion 15%Deceleration 8%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 44%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-09-18	2026-09-25	New	-9.1%
Downward Expansion	2026-07-24	2026-09-11	Developing	+33.3%
Rotation Down	2026-06-26	2026-07-17	New	-22.2%
Balance	2026-05-29	2026-06-19	New	-21.4%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-01	2026-05-22	New	-13.3%
Deceleration	2026-03-27	2026-04-24	Developing	+25.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-09	2026-03-20	Developing	+33.3%
Deceleration	2025-11-28	2026-01-02	Developing	+25.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-03	2025-11-21	Developing	-12.5%
Balance	2025-03-28	2025-09-26	Extended	+50.0%
Rotation Up	2025-03-07	2025-03-21	New	-11.1%
Balance	2025-02-14	2025-02-28	New	+0.0%
Downward Expansion	2024-12-20	2025-02-07	Developing	+0.0%
Deceleration	2024-12-13	2024-12-13	New	+0.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing46

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution27

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AXJO

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 70/100
Current Relative Strength: -6.96
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -16.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -18.4%
Basic Materials regime cohort: 24th percentile111 in cohort

Test RGL trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.71×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.22×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore RGL Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity AUD 0.0109rising

Slow Activity AUD 0.0109falling

Trend Reference AUD 0.0118-15.1% close margin

Current Fair Value AUD 0.007772+28.7% close margin

Structural low AUD 0.007shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +18.1%

Annualized volatility +87.4%

From structural high -56.5%

From structural low +66.7%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Regime survived	Read
Near term	16	-2.2%-35.7% to +75.0%	+25.0%	+25.0%	-3.3%	+56.2%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	-11.1%-43.8% to +140.4%	+28.6%	+28.6%	-18.2%	+28.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	-20.0%-56.2% to +250.0%	+40.0%	+40.0%	-24.5%	+20.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+7.9%-78.1% to +180.0%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+6.2%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

RGL Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map