Weekly structural research · LSE · Basic Materials

EML Stage Analysis

Emmerson PLC

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close GBP 0.014Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^FTSE

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: stable.
Activity structure: wide and stable.

Direction -76−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 62/100directional strength

Maturity 48/100lifecycle context

Confidence 86/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Widestable separation

Price acceptance -83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -22.4%GBP 0.018 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	0.014	0.0201	-32.67	2258261	Downward Expansion	-76	62
2026-09-25	0.015	0.0206	-29.67	2666550	Downward Expansion	-71	58
2026-09-18	0.015	0.0211	-29.84	2226128	Downward Expansion	-75	68
2026-09-11	0.016	0.0214	-25.51	1309814	Downward Expansion	-68	68
2026-09-04	0.017	0.0217	-22.49	5243496	Downward Expansion	-66	76
2026-08-28	0.0155	0.0218	-29.62	1345539	Downward Expansion	-78	83
2026-08-21	0.0165	0.022	-25.59	696628	Downward Expansion	-73	79
2026-08-14	0.0165	0.0221	-25.60	2665822	Downward Expansion	-75	76
2026-08-07	0.018	0.0223	-20.34	523778	Downward Expansion	-68	71
2026-07-31	0.0174	0.0224	-22.83	2181759	Downward Expansion	-74	70
2026-07-24	0.019	0.0226	-15.33	1657962	Downward Expansion	-64	54
2026-07-17	0.019	0.0227	-14.49	585279	Downward Expansion	-66	40
2026-07-10	0.021	0.0228	-4.84	353745	Downward Expansion	-51	26
2026-07-03	0.021	0.0228	-6.52	44700	Downward Expansion	-53	28
2026-06-26	0.022	0.0228	-0.64	59258	Rotation Down	-51	31
2026-06-19	0.021	0.0227	-3.79	663590	Rotation Down	-28	36
2026-06-12	0.0208	0.0226	-5.99	57566	Rotation Down	-30	37
2026-06-05	0.021	0.0224	-4.10	3003186	Rotation Down	-20	31
2026-05-29	0.0202	0.0223	-8.23	9312957	Deceleration	-27	31
2026-05-22	0.0218	0.0222	-1.87	6672606	Deceleration	1	9
2026-05-15	0.0225	0.022	4.22	7868517	Deceleration	8	9
2026-05-08	0.023	0.0219	5.89	4060823	Deceleration	12	10
2026-05-01	0.023	0.0216	4.24	7070761	Deceleration	15	9
2026-04-24	0.023	0.0214	3.99	2866976	Deceleration	27	13
2026-04-17	0.023	0.0212	1.57	7091705	Deceleration	29	16
2026-04-10	0.025	0.0211	11.39	2426485	Deceleration	31	21
2026-04-03	0.024	0.0209	9.06	6971524	Deceleration	33	19
2026-03-27	0.023	0.0207	9.68	7035221	Upward Expansion	39	24
2026-03-20	0.0215	0.0206	3.23	10183621	Upward Expansion	53	48
2026-03-13	0.0275	0.0206	27.46	7350664	Upward Expansion	65	75
2026-03-06	0.028	0.0203	29.91	5770746	Upward Expansion	70	75
2026-02-27	0.0301	0.02	32.57	5828609	Upward Expansion	82	75
2026-02-20	0.025	0.0196	13.58	10728628	Upward Expansion	66	49
2026-02-13	0.024	0.0194	12.34	2893388	Upward Expansion	62	32
2026-02-06	0.022	0.0192	4.09	5770099	Upward Expansion	42	23
2026-01-30	0.0205	0.0191	-0.74	1452448	Upward Expansion	37	20
2026-01-23	0.0203	0.0191	-0.01	8930828	Upward Expansion	50	26
2026-01-16	0.0225	0.019	10.90	9237649	Upward Expansion	60	37
2026-01-09	0.021	0.0189	5.96	3470716	Upward Expansion	55	42
2026-01-02	0.0209	0.0188	8.57	4307427	Upward Expansion	59	60
2025-12-26	0.023	0.0187	21.93	2745466	Rotation Up	69	67
2025-12-19	0.021	0.0186	12.83	4451510	Rotation Up	31	45
2025-12-12	0.023	0.0185	28.52	9730928	Balance	35	40
2025-12-05	0.0195	0.0184	10.60	8260121	Balance	4	10
2025-11-28	0.0195	0.0185	11.41	9686578	Balance	-16	10
2025-11-21	0.0172	0.0185	1.75	9284225	Balance	-35	19
2025-11-14	0.0173	0.0185	1.49	5271645	Balance	-36	18
2025-11-07	0.017	0.0184	0.94	3274655	Balance	-48	25
2025-10-31	0.016	0.0184	-4.43	3755234	Balance	-57	36
2025-10-24	0.018	0.0184	9.01	6624956	Balance	-24	33
2025-10-17	0.017	0.0184	7.59	6297233	Balance	-27	39
2025-10-10	0.016	0.0185	1.58	5095666	Balance	-34	41
2025-10-03	0.016	0.0186	-0.77	8870143	Balance	-33	27
2025-09-26	0.0185	0.0186	15.78	2119909	Balance	-5	8
2025-09-19	0.0182	0.0185	14.99	2109641	Balance	22	10
2025-09-12	0.018	0.0184	13.27	8206144	Balance	24	13
2025-09-05	0.019	0.0183	21.03	2172324	Deceleration	46	29
2025-08-29	0.0205	0.018	31.41	1476260	Deceleration	55	35
2025-08-22	0.0205	0.0176	30.26	3710309	Deceleration	57	30
2025-08-15	0.0188	0.0172	22.07	1380009	Deceleration	34	16
2025-08-08	0.0188	0.0169	22.91	1690504	Deceleration	45	21
2025-08-01	0.019	0.0165	25.07	2238465	Deceleration	46	21
2025-07-25	0.019	0.0161	24.78	3176682	Deceleration	45	21
2025-07-18	0.019	0.0157	26.69	3942707	Deceleration	36	17
2025-07-11	0.0185	0.0152	23.66	2914704	Deceleration	34	17
2025-07-04	0.019	0.0148	28.01	2456149	Deceleration	36	20
2025-06-27	0.018	0.0144	21.71	2391360	Deceleration	35	20
2025-06-20	0.0185	0.0141	25.48	2501808	Deceleration	38	23
2025-06-13	0.0195	0.0137	31.10	9038571	Upward Expansion	52	29
2025-06-06	0.019	0.0132	27.91	4151505	Upward Expansion	52	33
2025-05-30	0.0185	0.0128	25.00	4014426	Upward Expansion	55	45
2025-05-23	0.018	0.0125	22.03	10072967	Upward Expansion	58	53
2025-05-16	0.0215	0.0121	45.76	6607414	Upward Expansion	67	56
2025-05-09	0.022	0.0116	50.97	7300721	Deceleration	70	44
2025-05-02	0.02	0.0118	36.53	25509619	Deceleration	53	29
2025-04-25	0.015	0.0119	3.83	7161197	Deceleration	37	23
2025-04-18	0.0155	0.0119	7.77	2127866	Upward Expansion	43	29
2025-04-11	0.0152	0.0118	8.55	6875620	Upward Expansion	58	44
2025-04-04	0.0165	0.0118	15.54	9115649	Upward Expansion	64	57
2025-03-28	0.0182	0.0117	17.62	3889698	Upward Expansion	67	67
2025-03-21	0.02	0.0115	28.77	9351920	Rotation Up	81	83
2025-03-14	0.02	0.0114	28.27	15883509	Rotation Up	62	75
2025-03-07	0.017	0.0112	7.53	17421484	Rotation Up	46	75
2025-02-28	0.0145	0.0112	-10.86	7273935	Rotation Up	36	66
2025-02-21	0.0138	0.0112	-15.42	40469854	Rotation Up	36	61
2025-02-14	0.0169	0.0113	1.23	40090882	Rotation Up	54	60
2025-02-07	0.0102	0.0114	-39.14	11135901	Downward Expansion	2	23
2025-01-31	0.009	0.0117	-47.67	20505835	Downward Expansion	-36	42
2025-01-24	0.0085	0.012	-50.38	8150936	Downward Expansion	-41	41
2025-01-17	0.00775	0.0123	-55.45	9941972	Downward Expansion	-48	58
2025-01-10	0.00725	0.0126	-57.73	26542154	Downward Expansion	-46	36
2025-01-03	0.00725	0.013	-58.39	35052523	Downward Expansion	-57	40
2024-12-27	0.0061	0.0134	-64.99	5095889	Downward Expansion	-60	42
2024-12-20	0.00625	0.0138	-64.35	8969820	Downward Expansion	-60	42
2024-12-13	0.0065	0.0143	-64.22	6017889	Downward Expansion	-60	43
2024-12-06	0.00675	0.0149	-63.19	22546203	Downward Expansion	-61	46
2024-11-29	0.0065	0.0154	-64.76	4182203	Downward Expansion	-65	61
2024-11-22	0.0065	0.016	-64.99	3282001	Downward Expansion	-66	70
2024-11-15	0.00675	0.0165	-63.15	3937065	Downward Expansion	-65	75
2024-11-08	0.00725	0.0172	-60.87	24881366	Downward Expansion	-65	67
2024-11-01	0.0088	0.0175	-53.59	176779042	Downward Expansion	-62	61
2024-10-25	0.00562	0.018	-70.89	18992008	Downward Expansion	-70	34
2024-10-18	0.00725	0.0185	-63.45	140645402	Downward Expansion	-51	28
2024-10-11	0.026	0.019	31.07	10918355	Downward Expansion	38	38
2024-10-04	0.0235	0.0189	18.83	34604273	Downward Expansion	-5	9
2024-09-27	0.017	0.019	-14.24	16881468	Downward Expansion	-58	40
2024-09-20	0.012	0.0192	-39.02	6666533	Downward Expansion	-75	66
2024-09-13	0.013	0.0197	-34.88	1438591	Downward Expansion	-73	66
2024-09-06	0.014	0.0201	-29.74	1710723	Downward Expansion	-69	64
2024-08-30	0.0145	0.0205	-29.61	2542628	Downward Expansion	-68	65
2024-08-23	0.015	0.0207	-27.40	1146599	Downward Expansion	-66	68
2024-08-16	0.0155	0.0209	-25.53	2025330	Downward Expansion	-62	64
2024-08-09	0.016	0.021	-22.47	6327938	Downward Expansion	-60	53
2024-08-02	0.0148	0.0213	-29.21	7504175	Downward Expansion	-69	39
2024-07-26	0.0165	0.0213	-22.63	2692502	Downward Expansion	-63	33
2024-07-19	0.0195	0.0213	-7.93	4296343	Downward Expansion	-42	27
2024-07-12	0.021	0.0211	-2.36	5149549	Rotation Down	-55	42
2024-07-05	0.017	0.0209	-20.81	3719027	Rotation Down	-37	55
2024-06-28	0.0165	0.0207	-23.61	2506442	Rotation Down	-43	55
2024-06-21	0.0175	0.0207	-21.25	2332261	Balance	-38	51
2024-06-14	0.018	0.0206	-20.05	1508069	Balance	-27	37
2024-06-07	0.0205	0.0205	-12.20	2729738	Balance	7	17
2024-05-31	0.0195	0.0204	-18.67	5214348	Balance	3	11
2024-05-24	0.02	0.0202	-18.92	6588568	Balance	10	6
2024-05-17	0.023	0.0202	-10.23	9484895	Balance	34	19
2024-05-10	0.022	0.02	-16.17	4532733	Balance	36	23
2024-05-03	0.0245	0.0199	-6.58	3126187	Balance	48	24
2024-04-26	0.0235	0.0197	-11.99	5724079	Balance	35	16
2024-04-19	0.0255	0.0195	-3.93	6882374	Balance	40	19
2024-04-12	0.019	0.0193	-30.79	12585382	Balance	17	15
2024-04-05	0.022	0.0194	-20.55	10463570	Balance	30	17
2024-03-29	0.0205	0.0194	-27.40	4601758	Upward Expansion	34	16
2024-03-22	0.0225	0.0194	-21.27	12916046	Upward Expansion	39	24
2024-03-15	0.024	0.0194	-15.03	16623732	Upward Expansion	54	35
2024-03-08	0.025	0.0194	-12.20	4036031	Upward Expansion	58	41
2024-03-01	0.025	0.0193	-13.74	5929771	Rotation Up	62	58
2024-02-23	0.026	0.0193	-11.87	12340265	Rotation Up	41	52
2024-02-16	0.0245	0.0192	-18.24	4601036	Rotation Up	39	51
2024-02-09	0.0275	0.0191	-8.00	25103638	Rotation Up	43	55
2024-02-02	0.0205	0.019	-32.61	11945395	Rotation Up	22	31
2024-01-26	0.0198	0.0192	-36.37	7142855	Balance	17	26
2024-01-19	0.02	0.0197	-35.37	7749263	Balance	0	19
2024-01-12	0.0224	0.0204	-30.56	15119502	Downward Expansion	-2	13
2024-01-05	0.0145	0.0211	-56.21	3189063	Downward Expansion	-51	37
2023-12-29	0.018	0.0221	-47.29	14788278	Downward Expansion	-51	45
2023-12-22	0.014	0.023	-59.69	5032565	Downward Expansion	-67	65
2023-12-15	0.0132	0.0242	-62.04	2099177	Downward Expansion	-76	69
2023-12-08	0.0135	0.0254	-62.11	2421033	Downward Expansion	-78	69
2023-12-01	0.0142	0.0267	-60.92	3722676	Downward Expansion	-77	69
2023-11-24	0.0155	0.0282	-58.28	1339186	Downward Expansion	-71	67
2023-11-17	0.0155	0.0295	-59.39	2918766	Downward Expansion	-74	75
2023-11-10	0.0155	0.0308	-59.25	4533620	Downward Expansion	-77	69
2023-11-03	0.0162	0.0319	-58.27	7639070	Downward Expansion	-77	68
2023-10-27	0.0175	0.0327	-54.98	2596567	Downward Expansion	-72	84
2023-10-20	0.018	0.0335	-55.09	2952920	Downward Expansion	-71	79
2023-10-13	0.018	0.0342	-56.96	1264725	Downward Expansion	-73	81

Price vs TrendBelow-30.4%

Trend directionFalling-10.8%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-22.4%

Fair Value directionMoving away-36.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-32.7%

Relative strength directionWeakening-26.2%

Price momentumNegative-41.7%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.46×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-76 / ±100

-10.9 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

62 /100

-13.9 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

EML Directional State ↗ EML Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance5

Rotation Up19

Upward Expansion10

Deceleration49

Rotation Down68

Downward Expansion85

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 18%Rotation Up 8%Upward Expansion 17%Deceleration 15%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 37%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-07-03	2026-10-02	Established	-33.3%
Rotation Down	2026-06-05	2026-06-26	New	+4.8%
Deceleration	2026-04-03	2026-05-29	Developing	-15.8%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-02	2026-03-27	Established	+10.0%
Rotation Up	2025-12-19	2025-12-26	New	+9.5%
Balance	2025-09-12	2025-12-12	Established	+27.8%
Deceleration	2025-06-20	2025-09-05	Developing	+2.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-16	2025-06-13	Developing	-9.3%
Deceleration	2025-04-25	2025-05-09	New	+46.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-03-28	2025-04-18	New	-14.8%
Rotation Up	2025-02-14	2025-03-21	Developing	+18.3%
Downward Expansion	2024-07-19	2025-02-07	Extended	-47.4%
Rotation Down	2024-06-28	2024-07-12	New	+27.3%
Balance	2024-04-05	2024-06-21	Developing	-20.5%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing42

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution28

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^FTSE

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 97/100
Current Relative Strength: -32.67
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -41.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -41.9%
Basic Materials regime cohort: 55th percentile56 in cohort

Test EML trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.04×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.46×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 4

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationStable

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore EML Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity GBP 0.0149falling

Slow Activity GBP 0.0184falling

Trend Reference GBP 0.0201-30.4% close margin

Current Fair Value GBP 0.018-22.4% close margin

Structural low GBP 0.013shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +14.0%

Annualized volatility +35.1%

From structural high -54.8%

From structural low +7.7%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^FTSE	Regime survived	Read
Near term	30	-5.5%-72.1% to +100.0%	+33.3%	+63.3%	-8.4%	+86.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	11	-11.6%-62.8% to +100.0%	+27.3%	+72.7%	-15.4%	+63.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	-6.4%-60.3% to +145.2%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-12.4%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+0.4%-68.8% to +41.4%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-6.5%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

EML Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map