Weekly structural research · NASDAQ · Technology

XNET Stage Analysis

Xunlei Ltd Adr

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 5.01Tenure DevelopingBenchmark QQQ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and stable.

Direction -54−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 37/100directional strength

Maturity 25/100lifecycle context

Confidence 95/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatestable separation

Price acceptance -50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +25.0%USD 4.01 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	5.01	5.47	-29.60	908263	Downward Expansion	-54	37
2026-10-02	4.71	5.54	-34.69	1157103	Downward Expansion	-68	56
2026-09-25	5.01	5.57	-31.42	1094287	Downward Expansion	-57	52
2026-09-18	4.95	5.59	-31.01	961219	Downward Expansion	-59	56
2026-09-11	4.90	5.62	-31.88	658284	Downward Expansion	-63	59
2026-09-04	4.88	5.65	-33.32	1247532	Downward Expansion	-65	57
2026-08-28	5.01	5.68	-32.14	1112313	Downward Expansion	-59	49
2026-08-21	5.12	5.72	-31.09	1175752	Balance	-55	41
2026-08-14	5.25	5.79	-31.81	1250608	Balance	-51	30
2026-08-07	5.12	5.87	-33.23	979503	Balance	-54	26
2026-07-31	5.34	5.95	-26.92	1725618	Balance	-36	16
2026-07-24	5.52	6.02	-24.07	864190	Balance	-30	17
2026-07-17	5.77	6.08	-22.00	818186	Downward Expansion	-33	18
2026-07-10	5.73	6.12	-25.72	768380	Downward Expansion	-39	22
2026-07-03	5.64	6.15	-25.62	1058035	Downward Expansion	-53	35
2026-06-26	5.36	6.20	-28.74	1857477	Downward Expansion	-59	63
2026-06-19	4.96	6.26	-37.02	5776870	Downward Expansion	-68	69
2026-06-12	5.23	6.32	-32.00	2056335	Downward Expansion	-61	63
2026-06-05	4.66	6.39	-38.27	1894489	Balance	-73	61
2026-05-29	6.06	6.50	-23.96	1406147	Balance	-45	26
2026-05-22	5.48	6.59	-29.58	1148496	Balance	-57	31
2026-05-15	5.87	6.72	-24.14	761840	Balance	-29	13
2026-05-08	6.39	6.81	-17.82	818855	Balance	-17	14
2026-05-01	6.18	6.88	-16.15	602115	Balance	-31	16
2026-04-24	6.44	7.00	-11.29	787001	Downward Expansion	-35	17
2026-04-17	6.56	7.06	-7.40	808934	Downward Expansion	-38	24
2026-04-10	5.80	7.10	-12.80	659695	Downward Expansion	-57	38
2026-04-03	5.87	7.16	-7.47	940001	Downward Expansion	-45	28
2026-03-27	5.58	7.22	-8.24	1522400	Downward Expansion	-65	39
2026-03-20	5.83	7.28	-7.15	1554308	Downward Expansion	-53	35
2026-03-13	7.00	7.32	9.16	2189101	Downward Expansion	-56	40
2026-03-06	5.57	7.30	-13.68	1128096	Downward Expansion	-72	82
2026-02-27	5.72	7.27	-12.44	974678	Downward Expansion	-71	84
2026-02-20	5.87	7.22	-10.08	408291	Rotation Down	-69	83
2026-02-13	5.79	7.19	-9.70	820332	Rotation Down	-47	71
2026-02-06	5.80	7.15	-10.20	1684050	Deceleration	-47	57
2026-01-30	6.15	7.11	-6.01	1869059	Deceleration	-39	24
2026-01-23	7.21	7.05	11.08	997729	Deceleration	25	16
2026-01-16	7.66	6.95	19.86	1518888	Deceleration	30	18
2026-01-09	7.60	6.84	19.75	1068334	Deceleration	22	13
2026-01-02	7.26	6.75	18.77	617321	Deceleration	9	12
2025-12-26	7.21	6.71	17.70	1055022	Deceleration	7	13
2025-12-19	7.01	6.65	17.60	4061781	Deceleration	6	16
2025-12-12	6.77	6.61	15.94	1688259	Deceleration	1	18
2025-12-05	7.17	6.54	22.21	1401962	Deceleration	9	20
2025-11-28	7.23	6.45	26.41	1307182	Deceleration	23	25
2025-11-21	6.71	6.36	25.15	1937356	Deceleration	21	20
2025-11-14	7.33	6.27	34.68	2501156	Deceleration	40	27
2025-11-07	7.86	6.14	46.83	1741119	Upward Expansion	46	36
2025-10-31	8.91	5.99	64.52	1414114	Upward Expansion	60	49
2025-10-24	9.30	5.81	79.15	1600691	Upward Expansion	70	58
2025-10-17	8.48	5.65	71.19	2220950	Upward Expansion	64	57
2025-10-10	8.48	5.54	79.58	4963282	Upward Expansion	66	61
2025-10-03	9.78	5.41	107.53	5170868	Upward Expansion	90	90
2025-09-26	8.42	5.23	86.20	3917531	Upward Expansion	81	87
2025-09-19	7.74	5.08	74.98	6437251	Upward Expansion	73	87
2025-09-12	7.55	4.93	78.89	3972939	Upward Expansion	70	87
2025-09-05	7.65	4.79	89.42	4513911	Upward Expansion	76	86
2025-08-29	7.23	4.64	85.80	5281150	Upward Expansion	77	81
2025-08-22	7.21	4.48	89.72	17425442	Upward Expansion	77	70
2025-08-15	6.39	4.32	71.11	9286440	Deceleration	69	45
2025-08-08	4.48	4.17	23.36	1187103	Deceleration	15	7
2025-08-01	4.41	4.09	27.60	2065080	Deceleration	15	8
2025-07-25	4.95	4.01	41.94	2311529	Deceleration	37	16
2025-07-18	4.47	3.92	31.46	1735538	Deceleration	24	19
2025-07-11	4.60	3.83	38.81	3233865	Deceleration	25	23
2025-07-04	4.55	3.75	39.02	1518111	Deceleration	29	23
2025-06-27	4.10	3.67	29.08	2984836	Upward Expansion	33	20
2025-06-20	4.32	3.60	43.54	3342410	Upward Expansion	57	41
2025-06-13	5.02	3.52	69.30	11805372	Upward Expansion	64	69
2025-06-06	5.88	3.41	101.28	2624694	Upward Expansion	76	82
2025-05-30	5.61	3.28	100.90	6168906	Upward Expansion	73	77
2025-05-23	5.73	3.16	114.36	4007502	Upward Expansion	79	72
2025-05-16	4.78	3.04	79.48	1125583	Upward Expansion	65	46
2025-05-09	4.36	2.94	78.71	1429885	Deceleration	56	35
2025-05-02	4.51	2.86	88.07	1805698	Deceleration	48	25
2025-04-25	3.88	2.79	71.00	1082746	Deceleration	33	23
2025-04-18	3.70	2.72	76.74	1826178	Upward Expansion	38	22
2025-04-11	3.34	2.65	59.00	3721156	Upward Expansion	46	34
2025-04-04	3.44	2.59	78.97	2933999	Upward Expansion	62	52
2025-03-28	4.45	2.53	112.89	2436430	Upward Expansion	67	69
2025-03-21	5.10	2.43	144.76	5410037	Upward Expansion	86	77
2025-03-14	4.59	2.32	128.19	6901170	Upward Expansion	84	72
2025-03-07	4.50	2.22	124.43	5951520	Upward Expansion	91	93
2025-02-28	3.86	2.12	91.49	52813252	Upward Expansion	88	91
2025-02-21	3.13	2.05	53.08	1482051	Upward Expansion	73	89
2025-02-14	3.55	2.00	71.87	2030989	Upward Expansion	95	97
2025-02-07	2.98	1.93	50.83	1101119	Upward Expansion	90	87
2025-01-31	2.48	1.90	27.14	1740150	Upward Expansion	77	68
2025-01-24	2.35	1.87	19.59	844426	Upward Expansion	72	53
2025-01-17	2.12	1.85	9.99	377005	Upward Expansion	57	32
2025-01-10	1.98	1.84	5.93	421882	Upward Expansion	49	26
2025-01-03	2.05	1.83	7.38	690241	Upward Expansion	53	34
2024-12-27	2.06	1.82	7.12	347894	Upward Expansion	53	34
2024-12-20	1.99	1.82	4.41	796327	Upward Expansion	50	29
2024-12-13	2.10	1.81	7.30	836670	Deceleration	58	31
2024-12-06	2.07	1.80	6.94	901994	Deceleration	47	23
2024-11-29	1.98	1.78	5.41	468971	Deceleration	40	21
2024-11-22	1.87	1.77	0.52	499793	Upward Expansion	38	20
2024-11-15	1.84	1.76	0.52	987959	Upward Expansion	43	27
2024-11-08	2.07	1.75	9.14	522005	Upward Expansion	65	43
2024-11-01	1.91	1.73	6.21	382823	Upward Expansion	60	51
2024-10-25	2.04	1.72	11.52	544750	Upward Expansion	64	74
2024-10-18	2.00	1.70	9.43	760364	Upward Expansion	61	70
2024-10-11	2.02	1.68	10.60	1388491	Upward Expansion	65	67
2024-10-04	2.18	1.66	20.87	1942892	Deceleration	76	61
2024-09-27	1.83	1.64	1.32	596675	Deceleration	15	8
2024-09-20	1.54	1.63	-13.93	222007	Deceleration	-34	35
2024-09-13	1.58	1.63	-11.32	171008	Deceleration	-20	24
2024-09-06	1.55	1.63	-8.47	172490	Deceleration	-25	29
2024-08-30	1.62	1.62	-10.02	148056	Deceleration	3	17
2024-08-23	1.65	1.62	-9.83	173706	Deceleration	5	13
2024-08-16	1.61	1.61	-11.85	189234	Deceleration	4	14
2024-08-09	1.60	1.61	-8.00	394979	Deceleration	4	12
2024-08-02	1.64	1.61	-6.16	147412	Deceleration	22	13
2024-07-26	1.66	1.60	-8.73	246446	Deceleration	30	14
2024-07-19	1.67	1.60	-11.18	646574	Deceleration	34	17
2024-07-12	1.80	1.60	-8.61	240728	Deceleration	45	26
2024-07-05	1.75	1.59	-12.34	228369	Upward Expansion	39	22
2024-06-28	1.68	1.59	-13.65	222101	Upward Expansion	54	35
2024-06-21	1.78	1.58	-9.38	296288	Upward Expansion	60	46
2024-06-14	1.71	1.58	-13.32	325851	Upward Expansion	63	55
2024-06-07	1.92	1.57	-0.23	522547	Upward Expansion	81	80
2024-05-31	1.81	1.55	-3.31	198321	Upward Expansion	75	76
2024-05-24	1.75	1.54	-8.02	645325	Upward Expansion	70	74
2024-05-17	1.75	1.53	-6.80	569726	Upward Expansion	77	76
2024-05-10	1.65	1.53	-10.60	261642	Balance	64	59
2024-05-03	1.65	1.53	-9.75	336664	Balance	28	33
2024-04-26	1.57	1.53	-13.69	247572	Balance	-6	6
2024-04-19	1.48	1.53	-15.92	265249	Downward Expansion	-50	23
2024-04-12	1.50	1.53	-20.20	299526	Downward Expansion	-47	22
2024-04-05	1.51	1.54	-20.47	265428	Downward Expansion	-36	17
2024-03-29	1.49	1.54	-22.87	187244	Downward Expansion	-48	23
2024-03-22	1.48	1.55	-24.60	403888	Downward Expansion	-41	19
2024-03-15	1.52	1.56	-21.44	499776	Downward Expansion	-37	17
2024-03-08	1.49	1.56	-24.66	228624	Downward Expansion	-51	25
2024-03-01	1.52	1.58	-25.31	208631	Downward Expansion	-50	26
2024-02-23	1.49	1.59	-26.23	173753	Downward Expansion	-53	32
2024-02-16	1.49	1.61	-26.13	332848	Downward Expansion	-54	35
2024-02-09	1.49	1.62	-28.10	235110	Downward Expansion	-54	39
2024-02-02	1.48	1.64	-27.90	123710	Downward Expansion	-56	41
2024-01-26	1.52	1.66	-25.98	219430	Downward Expansion	-48	30
2024-01-19	1.51	1.67	-27.11	307198	Downward Expansion	-50	26
2024-01-12	1.50	1.68	-26.43	377396	Downward Expansion	-41	18
2024-01-05	1.53	1.70	-24.05	410036	Downward Expansion	-36	17
2023-12-29	1.62	1.70	-23.20	470047	Downward Expansion	-30	16
2023-12-22	1.67	1.69	-21.42	621797	Downward Expansion	-27	15
2023-12-15	1.52	1.68	-28.66	481378	Downward Expansion	-43	27
2023-12-08	1.51	1.69	-27.82	547256	Downward Expansion	-47	31
2023-12-01	1.55	1.69	-26.36	272838	Downward Expansion	-45	32
2023-11-24	1.59	1.69	-25.18	335202	Downward Expansion	-58	43
2023-11-17	1.48	1.69	-30.19	319950	Downward Expansion	-66	68
2023-11-10	1.52	1.69	-27.31	139197	Downward Expansion	-62	65
2023-11-03	1.50	1.70	-26.49	179913	Rotation Down	-67	64
2023-10-27	1.47	1.71	-23.33	346616	Rotation Down	-47	52
2023-10-20	1.53	1.72	-22.18	170659	Rotation Down	-43	45

Price vs TrendBelow-8.5%

Trend directionFalling-8.1%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+25.0%

Fair Value directionMoving away-28.7%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-29.6%

Relative strength directionWeakening-3.9%

Price momentumNegative-13.6%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.69×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-54 / ±100

+8.5 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

37 /100

-21.6 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

XNET Directional State ↗ XNET Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance22

Rotation Up22

Upward Expansion5

Deceleration49

Rotation Down47

Downward Expansion76

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 9%Upward Expansion 33%Deceleration 25%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 30%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-08-28	2026-10-09	Developing	+0.0%
Balance	2026-07-24	2026-08-21	Developing	-7.2%
Downward Expansion	2026-06-12	2026-07-17	Developing	+10.3%
Balance	2026-05-01	2026-06-05	Developing	-24.6%
Downward Expansion	2026-02-27	2026-04-24	Developing	+12.6%
Rotation Down	2026-02-13	2026-02-20	New	+1.4%
Deceleration	2025-11-14	2026-02-06	Established	-20.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-22	2025-11-07	Developing	+9.0%
Deceleration	2025-07-04	2025-08-15	Developing	+40.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-16	2025-06-27	Developing	-14.2%
Deceleration	2025-04-25	2025-05-09	New	+12.5%
Upward Expansion	2024-12-20	2025-04-18	Established	+85.9%
Deceleration	2024-11-29	2024-12-13	New	+6.1%
Upward Expansion	2024-10-11	2024-11-22	Developing	-7.4%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing32

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution42

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 92/100
Current Relative Strength: -29.60
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -13.6%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -36.6%
Technology regime cohort: 25th percentile170 in cohort

Test XNET trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.63×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.69×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore XNET Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 4.91falling

Slow Activity USD 5.26falling

Trend Reference USD 5.47-8.5% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 4.01+25.0% close margin

Structural low USD 4.52shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +8.0%

Annualized volatility +54.5%

From structural high -48.8%

From structural low +10.8%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs QQQ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	29	-2.0%-26.3% to +37.5%	+37.9%	+55.2%	-3.6%	+79.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	11	-3.3%-36.1% to +63.1%	+36.4%	+63.6%	-5.4%	+54.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	-0.1%-53.8% to +17.7%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-0.9%	+66.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+13.8%-57.5% to +36.2%	+66.7%	+33.3%	-11.1%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

XNET Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map