Weekly structural research · SHH · Consumer Cyclical

601366 Stage Analysis

Liqun Commercial Group Co.,Ltd.

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close CNY 3.65Tenure NewBenchmark 000001.SS

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Balance after decline

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction -16−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 9/100directional strength

Maturity 18/100lifecycle context

Confidence 59/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance +66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -22.4%CNY 4.70 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	3.65	3.71	-9.61	25187902	Balance	-16	9
2026-09-25	3.58	3.75	-12.77	40091498	Balance	-6	13
2026-09-18	3.60	3.79	-13.23	57209595	Balance	-2	19
2026-09-11	3.73	3.83	-9.98	77406373	Balance	0	21
2026-09-04	3.80	3.87	-9.67	20854286	Downward Expansion	7	19
2026-08-28	3.75	3.91	-11.69	19570800	Downward Expansion	-18	16
2026-08-21	3.55	3.97	-15.81	19518442	Downward Expansion	-38	25
2026-08-14	3.50	4.02	-17.96	10671006	Downward Expansion	-44	36
2026-08-07	3.48	4.07	-19.26	10256400	Downward Expansion	-45	39
2026-07-31	3.52	4.12	-16.66	9908500	Downward Expansion	-49	45
2026-07-24	3.31	4.18	-21.80	7414700	Downward Expansion	-70	61
2026-07-17	3.49	4.27	-17.10	13607500	Downward Expansion	-64	64
2026-07-10	3.44	4.30	-23.57	12008000	Downward Expansion	-66	81
2026-07-03	3.34	4.34	-27.24	8411400	Downward Expansion	-68	87
2026-06-26	3.16	4.38	-31.36	7661500	Downward Expansion	-90	95
2026-06-19	3.36	4.42	-28.93	28201754	Downward Expansion	-86	89
2026-06-12	3.50	4.47	-25.42	7563733	Downward Expansion	-82	81
2026-06-05	3.64	4.51	-23.10	11232971	Downward Expansion	-78	71
2026-05-29	3.84	4.54	-20.34	53101659	Downward Expansion	-66	60
2026-05-22	3.76	4.56	-23.35	42316114	Downward Expansion	-75	63
2026-05-15	3.85	4.59	-22.53	44405523	Downward Expansion	-73	73
2026-05-08	4.03	4.61	-20.34	32448753	Downward Expansion	-64	74
2026-05-01	4.04	4.63	-19.37	53737732	Downward Expansion	-66	81
2026-04-24	3.85	4.64	-23.12	50751372	Downward Expansion	-77	89
2026-04-17	3.97	4.67	-20.82	56557783	Downward Expansion	-71	83
2026-04-10	4.01	4.69	-19.29	41214628	Rotation Down	-72	84
2026-04-03	3.91	4.71	-19.67	48934720	Rotation Down	-56	76
2026-03-27	4.18	4.73	-15.37	64682255	Rotation Down	-38	63
2026-03-20	4.15	4.74	-17.34	70630626	Rotation Down	-35	47
2026-03-13	4.45	4.76	-14.86	62899357	Deceleration	-25	26
2026-03-06	4.58	4.77	-13.37	77671292	Deceleration	0	12
2026-02-27	4.78	4.77	-10.84	70565820	Deceleration	22	15
2026-02-13	4.85	4.77	-8.13	88608072	Deceleration	33	16
2026-02-06	5.00	4.76	-5.28	146542886	Upward Expansion	40	25
2026-01-30	5.09	4.75	-5.16	175021096	Upward Expansion	52	32
2026-01-23	5.32	4.74	-1.72	418480339	Upward Expansion	61	36
2026-01-16	5.29	4.71	-1.81	426829102	Upward Expansion	60	40
2026-01-09	5.05	4.68	-7.04	242575715	Upward Expansion	56	67
2026-01-02	4.88	4.67	-7.22	168570796	Upward Expansion	57	67
2025-12-26	5.25	4.66	-0.56	569546773	Upward Expansion	64	72
2025-12-19	5.91	4.64	13.71	650025841	Upward Expansion	85	76
2025-12-12	4.50	4.60	-13.50	99616358	Balance	-41	22
2025-12-05	4.55	4.60	-13.52	53595100	Balance	-22	11
2025-11-28	4.64	4.60	-12.12	60093400	Balance	10	10
2025-11-21	4.51	4.60	-13.89	107589375	Balance	-19	11
2025-11-14	4.74	4.61	-13.54	66673514	Balance	17	17
2025-11-07	4.59	4.61	-16.89	41298279	Balance	-30	14
2025-10-31	4.56	4.61	-17.00	34382995	Downward Expansion	-34	16
2025-10-24	4.59	4.62	-16.88	39019756	Downward Expansion	-38	20
2025-10-17	4.56	4.62	-15.57	38444900	Downward Expansion	-50	33
2025-10-10	4.54	4.63	-17.62	10783000	Downward Expansion	-54	46
2025-10-03	4.52	4.64	-18.21	10483805	Downward Expansion	-57	46
2025-09-26	4.52	4.65	-17.62	36251044	Balance	-56	46
2025-09-19	4.53	4.65	-17.85	57617542	Balance	-56	42
2025-09-12	4.60	4.66	-18.37	50537886	Balance	-35	26
2025-09-05	4.59	4.67	-18.02	50112667	Balance	-37	22
2025-08-29	4.53	4.68	-20.68	67252913	Balance	-44	22
2025-08-22	4.68	4.70	-18.00	49624669	Balance	-12	6
2025-08-15	4.63	4.71	-16.61	47459911	Balance	-15	10
2025-08-08	4.68	4.72	-14.80	31630901	Balance	-10	13
2025-08-01	4.66	4.73	-13.88	35826233	Balance	-11	14
2025-07-25	4.73	4.75	-13.86	39390047	Balance	-16	13
2025-07-18	4.67	4.76	-13.96	35513156	Downward Expansion	-31	14
2025-07-11	4.69	4.79	-13.41	30174810	Downward Expansion	-35	22
2025-07-04	4.57	4.82	-15.14	23053002	Downward Expansion	-50	32
2025-06-27	4.59	4.86	-14.03	21250433	Downward Expansion	-51	31
2025-06-20	4.48	4.88	-14.66	21058232	Downward Expansion	-61	36
2025-06-13	4.56	4.91	-13.79	26762397	Downward Expansion	-57	34
2025-06-06	4.67	4.93	-12.17	17699435	Downward Expansion	-51	31
2025-05-30	4.64	4.96	-11.91	20172701	Downward Expansion	-54	37
2025-05-23	4.55	4.98	-13.89	30337132	Downward Expansion	-62	49
2025-05-16	4.65	5.00	-12.82	24378232	Downward Expansion	-55	40
2025-05-09	4.61	5.02	-13.18	19812827	Downward Expansion	-61	41
2025-05-02	4.54	5.04	-13.11	25751197	Downward Expansion	-71	45
2025-04-25	4.77	5.08	-9.37	44960156	Downward Expansion	-53	35
2025-04-18	4.83	5.09	-7.82	39492636	Downward Expansion	-56	42
2025-04-11	4.67	5.10	-9.89	51315627	Downward Expansion	-67	54
2025-04-04	4.75	5.11	-11.39	20468600	Downward Expansion	-61	58
2025-03-28	4.69	5.12	-12.96	19753137	Downward Expansion	-70	70
2025-03-21	4.79	5.13	-11.72	25435961	Downward Expansion	-61	65
2025-03-14	4.90	5.14	-11.38	31942145	Downward Expansion	-61	61
2025-03-07	4.67	5.14	-14.51	24415997	Downward Expansion	-71	68
2025-02-28	4.73	5.15	-12.32	35356426	Downward Expansion	-68	57
2025-02-21	4.82	5.16	-12.26	31412765	Rotation Down	-64	51
2025-02-14	4.87	5.17	-10.53	34797091	Rotation Down	-36	42
2025-02-07	4.92	5.17	-8.30	25068720	Rotation Down	-34	43
2025-01-31	4.92	5.18	-6.98	6218300	Rotation Down	-27	44
2025-01-24	4.99	5.19	-6.04	42070432	Balance	-22	36
2025-01-17	5.03	5.17	-5.33	50785817	Balance	-18	24
2025-01-10	5.01	5.16	-3.90	53204722	Balance	-0	14
2025-01-03	5.07	5.15	-4.36	78472454	Upward Expansion	20	9
2024-12-27	5.21	5.14	-7.44	86806939	Upward Expansion	44	27
2024-12-20	5.40	5.13	-3.54	155472200	Upward Expansion	52	41
2024-12-13	5.77	5.12	2.13	213287716	Upward Expansion	69	54
2024-12-06	5.69	5.10	0.17	170051690	Upward Expansion	69	41
2024-11-29	5.34	5.08	-4.16	55203961	Deceleration	42	23
2024-11-22	5.24	5.07	-4.49	48741491	Deceleration	38	21
2024-11-15	5.29	5.05	-5.58	80916359	Deceleration	49	29
2024-11-08	5.34	5.03	-8.20	64427823	Deceleration	55	31
2024-11-01	5.24	5.02	-5.16	47093417	Upward Expansion	52	32
2024-10-25	5.35	5.01	-4.13	56252653	Upward Expansion	61	58
2024-10-18	5.16	5.00	-6.51	37104753	Upward Expansion	58	65
2024-10-11	5.28	4.99	-3.14	107210952	Upward Expansion	60	69
2024-10-04	5.61	4.98	-0.85	18298454	Upward Expansion	91	86
2024-09-27	5.28	4.96	0.83	20758360	Balance	71	51
2024-09-20	5.01	4.93	7.96	10816798	Balance	45	23
2024-09-13	5.01	4.91	9.45	10619174	Balance	45	23
2024-09-06	5.03	4.87	7.62	10097250	Balance	38	21
2024-08-30	5.04	4.85	4.96	7757772	Balance	38	20
2024-08-23	4.97	4.86	3.03	8395793	Balance	34	17
2024-08-16	4.99	4.87	2.50	6909411	Balance	45	23
2024-08-09	5.02	4.88	3.68	6063644	Balance	49	43
2024-08-02	5.00	4.90	1.74	8138159	Balance	50	44
2024-07-26	4.97	4.91	1.58	19521651	Balance	24	30
2024-07-19	5.08	4.93	0.71	22271884	Balance	16	21
2024-07-12	5.21	4.94	3.72	14244556	Balance	2	3
2024-07-05	5.15	4.96	3.43	21051714	Downward Expansion	-29	28
2024-06-28	4.48	4.97	-10.37	4275623	Downward Expansion	-75	71
2024-06-21	4.59	5.01	-9.22	5242700	Balance	-66	45
2024-06-14	4.73	5.03	-7.64	10616010	Balance	-44	26
2024-06-07	4.70	5.05	-8.85	8028599	Balance	-29	16
2024-05-31	5.03	5.07	-3.78	4987500	Balance	16	39
2024-05-24	5.09	5.08	-2.57	8673900	Balance	-2	31
2024-05-17	5.16	5.08	-3.34	8141973	Balance	1	16
2024-05-10	5.14	5.08	-3.72	19261852	Balance	-8	7
2024-05-03	4.85	5.08	-7.79	4492707	Balance	-35	20
2024-04-26	4.76	5.10	-9.01	10117550	Balance	-38	19
2024-04-19	4.76	5.12	-8.35	20476695	Balance	-36	16
2024-04-12	4.91	5.13	-4.13	11749900	Balance	-28	19
2024-04-05	4.98	5.15	-4.42	7523440	Downward Expansion	-28	22
2024-03-29	4.98	5.16	-3.60	8340000	Downward Expansion	-30	24
2024-03-22	5.01	5.19	-3.30	12002030	Downward Expansion	-37	22
2024-03-15	4.90	5.21	-5.70	14881399	Downward Expansion	-54	35
2024-03-08	4.94	5.24	-4.80	17639500	Downward Expansion	-63	66
2024-03-01	4.48	5.27	-13.15	21111550	Downward Expansion	-67	82
2024-02-23	4.39	5.30	-14.50	25159067	Downward Expansion	-69	83
2024-02-09	3.81	5.34	-22.55	48695195	Downward Expansion	-93	90
2024-02-02	4.49	5.39	-4.61	26687200	Downward Expansion	-86	74
2024-01-26	5.25	5.41	4.51	33371200	Balance	-44	27
2024-01-19	5.24	5.41	7.18	19029700	Balance	-27	21
2024-01-12	5.43	5.41	9.07	17909701	Balance	21	15
2024-01-05	5.42	5.40	7.02	16057900	Upward Expansion	27	14
2023-12-29	5.40	5.40	4.91	15237800	Upward Expansion	41	26
2023-12-22	5.45	5.40	7.98	11819542	Upward Expansion	49	55
2023-12-15	5.63	5.40	10.50	14079600	Rotation Up	58	66
2023-12-08	5.56	5.39	8.28	15758692	Rotation Up	24	44
2023-12-01	5.66	5.39	8.00	17443000	Balance	33	32
2023-11-24	5.57	5.38	6.02	17395184	Balance	14	17
2023-11-17	5.32	5.36	0.88	9857000	Downward Expansion	-37	18
2023-11-10	5.26	5.36	0.19	8887700	Downward Expansion	-52	34
2023-11-03	5.29	5.37	0.87	13006492	Downward Expansion	-55	49
2023-10-27	5.20	5.37	-0.55	13026500	Downward Expansion	-58	57
2023-10-20	5.05	5.38	-2.68	11136000	Downward Expansion	-73	60
2023-10-13	5.14	5.40	-4.46	14921100	Deceleration	-31	35
2023-09-29	5.33	5.41	-2.04	9996600	Deceleration	-16	25
2023-09-22	5.34	5.43	-2.82	13764800	Deceleration	-16	27

Price vs TrendBelow-1.7%

Trend directionFalling-11.1%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-22.4%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+8.9%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-9.6%

Relative strength directionImproving+17.6%

Price momentumNegative-6.6%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.68×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-16 / ±100

-22.7 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

9 /100

-10.0 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

601366 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance51

Rotation Up31

Upward Expansion26

Deceleration31

Rotation Down24

Downward Expansion51

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-22 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 33%Rotation Up 1%Upward Expansion 14%Deceleration 7%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 40%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-09-11	2026-10-02	New	-2.1%
Downward Expansion	2026-04-17	2026-09-04	Established	-4.3%
Rotation Down	2026-03-20	2026-04-10	New	-3.4%
Deceleration	2026-02-13	2026-03-13	New	-8.2%
Upward Expansion	2025-12-19	2026-02-06	Developing	-15.4%
Balance	2025-11-07	2025-12-12	Developing	-2.0%
Downward Expansion	2025-10-03	2025-10-31	Developing	+0.9%
Balance	2025-07-25	2025-09-26	Developing	-4.4%
Downward Expansion	2025-02-28	2025-07-18	Established	-1.2%
Rotation Down	2025-01-31	2025-02-21	New	-2.0%
Balance	2025-01-10	2025-01-24	New	-0.4%
Upward Expansion	2024-12-06	2025-01-03	Developing	-11.0%
Deceleration	2024-11-08	2024-11-29	New	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2024-10-04	2024-11-01	Developing	-6.6%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing75

Stage 2 · Advancing5

Stage 3 · Distribution13

Stage 4 · Declining95

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus 000001.SS

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 87/100
Current Relative Strength: -9.61
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -6.6%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -5.7%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 30th percentile81 in cohort

Test 601366 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.04×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.68×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 601366 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity CNY 3.64falling

Slow Activity CNY 3.61falling

Trend Reference CNY 3.71-1.7% close margin

Current Fair Value CNY 4.70-22.4% close margin

Structural low CNY 3.15shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +5.3%

Annualized volatility +25.6%

From structural high -43.5%

From structural low +16.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs 000001.SS	Regime survived	Read
Near term	23	-1.7%-29.9% to +11.5%	+30.4%	+30.4%	-2.2%	+43.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	11	-3.0%-12.4% to +8.9%	+45.5%	+45.5%	-7.8%	+27.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	7	-1.2%-6.3% to +12.5%	+42.9%	+42.9%	-1.7%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	5	-13.0%-19.2% to -0.9%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-10.8%	+80.0%	Usable descriptive sample

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

601366 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map