Weekly structural research · SAU · Financial Services

1050 Stage Analysis

Banque Saudi Fransi

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close SAR 19.71Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^TASI.SR

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Re-accelerating

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 20−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 20/100directional strength

Maturity 73/100lifecycle context

Confidence 91/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +18.3%SAR 16.66 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	19.71	19.81	10.97	7568645	Upward Expansion	20	20
2026-10-02	20.42	19.77	15.21	9676231	Upward Expansion	45	32
2026-09-25	20.83	19.71	15.77	5984683	Upward Expansion	61	49
2026-09-18	21.31	19.66	17.00	8424004	Upward Expansion	65	72
2026-09-11	21.79	19.58	17.80	5247808	Upward Expansion	72	81
2026-09-04	21.87	19.47	18.59	9301167	Upward Expansion	79	83
2026-08-28	21.81	19.33	16.78	8194081	Upward Expansion	84	81
2026-08-21	20.79	19.19	14.83	8042521	Upward Expansion	72	74
2026-08-14	20.65	19.08	15.93	5430327	Upward Expansion	73	71
2026-08-07	20.15	18.96	13.57	7273303	Deceleration	61	55
2026-07-31	19.76	18.84	14.48	9405615	Deceleration	54	36
2026-07-24	19.93	18.73	13.65	6434694	Deceleration	58	24
2026-07-17	18.92	18.62	9.04	7467247	Deceleration	16	7
2026-07-10	19.10	18.54	9.56	5898143	Deceleration	31	16
2026-07-03	18.58	18.45	6.70	12985097	Deceleration	21	15
2026-06-26	19.58	18.35	11.64	8706821	Deceleration	46	28
2026-06-19	19.43	18.23	9.30	6083002	Deceleration	43	24
2026-06-12	19.20	18.13	9.14	7690868	Deceleration	26	15
2026-06-05	18.66	18.04	6.86	14848413	Deceleration	28	16
2026-05-29	19.13	17.98	9.44	0	Deceleration	32	19
2026-05-22	19.13	17.92	9.78	12799130	Deceleration	33	23
2026-05-15	18.90	17.87	9.15	11195747	Upward Expansion	38	22
2026-05-08	18.89	17.84	9.05	10659683	Upward Expansion	46	34
2026-05-01	18.80	17.82	7.39	8358991	Upward Expansion	60	47
2026-04-24	19.67	17.79	13.50	9493581	Upward Expansion	65	65
2026-04-17	20.29	17.73	13.00	9928987	Upward Expansion	82	76
2026-04-10	19.60	17.58	11.72	7503066	Upward Expansion	72	57
2026-04-03	19.26	17.46	11.15	9524210	Upward Expansion	68	52
2026-03-27	19.27	17.34	13.41	10097027	Upward Expansion	72	54
2026-03-20	18.84	17.22	12.75	3973490	Upward Expansion	65	55
2026-03-13	18.62	17.15	12.49	16130435	Upward Expansion	65	73
2026-03-06	18.45	17.07	13.17	17204931	Upward Expansion	67	82
2026-02-27	19.34	17.01	20.01	18874981	Upward Expansion	87	93
2026-02-20	19.10	16.92	16.69	24935744	Upward Expansion	88	86
2026-02-13	18.50	16.84	10.64	23701594	Upward Expansion	84	80
2026-02-06	17.52	16.77	5.95	7508076	Upward Expansion	63	62
2026-01-30	17.57	16.75	4.89	12683054	Balance	66	56
2026-01-23	17.50	16.73	7.31	8567314	Balance	37	30
2026-01-16	17.07	16.70	8.26	7196029	Balance	24	18
2026-01-09	16.56	16.65	8.97	7390843	Balance	-6	8
2026-01-02	16.60	16.65	9.03	2781856	Balance	-1	5
2025-12-26	16.55	16.64	9.52	4110739	Rotation Down	-16	19
2025-12-19	16.37	16.63	9.63	8071490	Rotation Down	-20	29
2025-12-12	16.39	16.64	7.53	7494512	Rotation Down	-21	37
2025-12-05	15.82	16.64	5.10	13291907	Deceleration	-31	39
2025-11-28	16.00	16.66	6.60	11184902	Deceleration	-18	28
2025-11-21	16.15	16.69	4.44	7629934	Deceleration	5	19
2025-11-14	16.58	16.71	6.04	6771245	Upward Expansion	23	18
2025-11-07	17.03	16.69	8.16	9903632	Upward Expansion	54	34
2025-10-31	17.36	16.62	7.43	9975791	Upward Expansion	61	65
2025-10-24	17.50	16.60	9.26	7062144	Upward Expansion	64	77
2025-10-17	18.10	16.58	12.71	8681522	Upward Expansion	70	81
2025-10-10	18.23	16.52	15.31	7456749	Upward Expansion	77	78
2025-10-03	17.89	16.44	14.73	23899879	Rotation Up	71	56
2025-09-26	17.69	16.36	15.91	20749313	Rotation Up	52	22
2025-09-19	16.04	16.29	10.87	12403057	Rotation Down	-28	45
2025-09-12	15.86	16.28	13.48	9604743	Rotation Down	-29	42
2025-09-05	15.72	16.26	10.81	9532953	Balance	-23	32
2025-08-29	15.79	16.25	10.85	12854090	Balance	-2	10
2025-08-22	16.44	16.22	14.38	7806479	Upward Expansion	30	12
2025-08-15	16.45	16.16	15.20	9909400	Upward Expansion	33	16
2025-08-08	16.54	16.11	15.19	8216081	Upward Expansion	46	22
2025-08-01	16.70	16.03	16.86	12320916	Upward Expansion	51	34
2025-07-25	16.63	15.95	16.43	13542330	Upward Expansion	50	44
2025-07-18	16.45	15.89	14.83	7329069	Upward Expansion	51	43
2025-07-11	16.94	15.83	15.78	5261733	Upward Expansion	60	37
2025-07-04	16.98	15.75	16.81	6972673	Upward Expansion	59	28
2025-06-27	16.53	15.66	15.90	7494294	Upward Expansion	37	16
2025-06-20	15.59	15.56	14.31	8582408	Upward Expansion	21	12
2025-06-13	16.47	15.50	18.55	5415798	Upward Expansion	49	26
2025-06-06	16.47	15.42	17.17	8572209	Upward Expansion	51	29
2025-05-30	16.30	15.34	16.54	8616389	Upward Expansion	51	31
2025-05-23	16.47	15.26	16.02	7370506	Upward Expansion	55	39
2025-05-16	16.57	15.16	14.03	8165152	Upward Expansion	57	48
2025-05-09	16.37	15.07	14.21	8657035	Upward Expansion	55	40
2025-05-02	16.77	14.97	15.57	7088219	Upward Expansion	64	37
2025-04-25	16.93	14.89	14.91	11797741	Upward Expansion	72	42
2025-04-18	15.74	14.81	9.14	7015559	Upward Expansion	56	40
2025-04-11	15.01	14.78	4.67	16568935	Upward Expansion	55	47
2025-04-04	16.77	14.76	13.24	2233530	Upward Expansion	78	87
2025-03-28	17.06	14.71	14.11	19382930	Upward Expansion	92	87
2025-03-21	16.24	14.64	11.29	11168645	Upward Expansion	83	76
2025-03-14	15.67	14.62	7.92	14352601	Upward Expansion	68	74
2025-03-07	15.59	14.61	6.77	15038961	Upward Expansion	68	78
2025-02-28	15.67	14.58	4.69	13754351	Rotation Up	75	82
2025-02-21	15.56	14.59	1.64	8204427	Rotation Up	49	68
2025-02-14	15.47	14.62	0.98	12938709	Rotation Up	47	61
2025-02-07	15.34	14.61	-0.52	12773158	Rotation Up	47	56
2025-01-31	14.73	14.60	-4.57	4594652	Rotation Up	18	23
2025-01-24	14.86	14.61	-3.58	9974109	Balance	24	22
2025-01-17	14.93	14.63	-2.62	10531060	Balance	11	18
2025-01-10	14.20	14.63	-6.46	7799045	Balance	-8	13
2025-01-03	14.29	14.65	-6.22	13192197	Balance	-6	19
2024-12-27	14.71	14.66	-1.82	5158386	Balance	0	19
2024-12-20	14.64	14.68	-2.83	8983345	Downward Expansion	-16	17
2024-12-13	14.60	14.71	-4.98	10259066	Downward Expansion	-27	17
2024-12-06	14.31	14.72	-5.82	8013035	Downward Expansion	-43	31
2024-11-29	13.58	14.75	-8.68	11768859	Downward Expansion	-65	44
2024-11-22	13.80	14.80	-9.11	6852034	Downward Expansion	-60	41
2024-11-15	13.89	14.85	-8.51	8008904	Downward Expansion	-59	46
2024-11-08	14.11	14.92	-10.02	10341826	Downward Expansion	-63	60
2024-11-01	13.80	14.99	-11.49	7127867	Downward Expansion	-66	78
2024-10-25	13.67	15.08	-11.63	6456853	Downward Expansion	-73	82
2024-10-18	13.69	15.16	-11.97	13000447	Downward Expansion	-76	79
2024-10-11	13.60	15.23	-13.42	13921747	Downward Expansion	-85	81
2024-10-04	14.20	15.30	-9.67	12758744	Downward Expansion	-76	72
2024-09-27	14.66	15.37	-10.12	11981303	Downward Expansion	-60	60
2024-09-20	14.64	15.41	-8.33	16769879	Downward Expansion	-64	58
2024-09-13	14.62	15.46	-6.86	6369257	Balance	-65	46
2024-09-06	15.17	15.54	-5.60	9196544	Balance	-35	20
2024-08-30	15.08	15.60	-6.73	14808876	Balance	-38	23
2024-08-23	15.52	15.66	-4.60	8365310	Balance	-12	6
2024-08-16	15.24	15.71	-4.37	6984201	Balance	-16	14
2024-08-09	14.91	15.77	-4.61	12785402	Balance	-27	20
2024-08-02	16.00	15.83	-1.12	5726893	Balance	5	20
2024-07-26	16.21	15.84	0.09	1130610	Downward Expansion	-2	10
2024-07-19	15.18	15.84	-7.76	876200	Downward Expansion	-36	20
2024-07-12	15.20	15.85	-4.86	5503117	Downward Expansion	-39	24
2024-07-05	14.97	15.86	-5.52	5238166	Downward Expansion	-54	33
2024-06-28	15.33	15.88	-4.11	1283563	Downward Expansion	-53	40
2024-06-14	14.97	15.90	-4.63	6841687	Downward Expansion	-56	44
2024-06-07	15.05	15.92	-4.78	13147202	Downward Expansion	-58	44
2024-05-31	14.37	15.94	-8.82	1754517	Downward Expansion	-82	71
2024-05-24	15.40	15.94	-6.45	1038142	Rotation Down	-59	57
2024-05-17	15.41	15.92	-8.04	4431663	Rotation Down	-36	60
2024-05-10	15.07	15.90	-10.82	7398138	Rotation Down	-42	64
2024-05-03	15.30	15.88	-10.13	8441359	Rotation Down	-35	54
2024-04-26	15.07	15.87	-10.98	12821003	Balance	-33	44
2024-04-19	15.24	15.88	-11.99	11329627	Balance	-29	21
2024-04-05	15.99	15.88	-9.37	9686952	Balance	18	10
2024-03-29	16.26	15.86	-6.94	8244357	Balance	21	10
2024-03-22	16.22	15.86	-9.22	7209098	Balance	9	11
2024-03-15	16.20	15.86	-8.68	9090079	Balance	6	14
2024-03-08	15.72	15.85	-10.41	7948006	Balance	-0	15
2024-03-01	15.91	15.87	-9.87	22374210	Balance	15	20
2024-02-23	16.03	15.86	-9.29	13080324	Upward Expansion	26	20
2024-02-16	16.12	15.91	-7.85	6882843	Upward Expansion	35	19
2024-02-09	16.01	15.97	-6.48	12031022	Upward Expansion	40	27
2024-02-02	16.93	16.03	1.05	7664838	Rotation Up	59	50
2024-01-26	17.18	16.05	0.36	3015152	Rotation Up	40	53
2024-01-19	16.81	16.04	-0.28	7511431	Rotation Up	34	53
2024-01-12	16.91	16.06	-1.06	6645632	Rotation Up	38	58
2024-01-05	17.04	16.02	-0.74	9033844	Rotation Up	34	54
2023-12-29	16.70	15.99	-1.13	6703431	Balance	28	41
2023-12-22	16.41	15.96	-0.40	4488059	Balance	24	25
2023-12-15	16.24	15.93	-0.91	7496109	Balance	2	10
2023-12-08	15.41	15.90	-3.38	6732539	Balance	-15	13
2023-12-01	15.62	15.90	-1.91	10885409	Balance	-24	19
2023-11-24	15.59	15.89	-1.35	7534820	Downward Expansion	-26	23
2023-11-17	15.82	15.90	0.03	9119135	Downward Expansion	-30	20
2023-11-10	15.53	15.88	0.26	6699753	Downward Expansion	-43	26
2023-11-03	15.66	15.88	0.89	9444173	Downward Expansion	-58	38
2023-10-27	14.40	15.84	-3.25	8906304	Rotation Down	-70	68
2023-10-20	14.66	15.83	-3.96	5273921	Rotation Down	-40	56
2023-10-13	14.82	15.79	-2.31	9225458	Rotation Down	-39	57
2023-10-06	14.45	15.77	-6.42	4803091	Rotation Down	-50	60

Price vs TrendBelow-0.5%

Trend directionRising+5.1%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+18.3%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+1.1%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+11.0%

Relative strength directionImproving+1.4%

Price momentumPositive+0.6%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.83×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

20 / ±100

-52.0 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

20 /100

-60.8 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

1050 Directional State ↗ 1050 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance42

Rotation Up22

Upward Expansion58

Deceleration88

Rotation Down35

Downward Expansion21

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 21%Rotation Up 8%Upward Expansion 37%Deceleration 10%Rotation Down 8%Downward Expansion 17%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-08-14	2026-10-09	Developing	-4.6%
Deceleration	2026-05-22	2026-08-07	Developing	+5.3%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-06	2026-05-15	Established	+7.9%
Balance	2026-01-02	2026-01-30	Developing	+5.9%
Rotation Down	2025-12-12	2025-12-26	New	+1.0%
Deceleration	2025-11-21	2025-12-05	New	-2.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-10	2025-11-14	Developing	-9.1%
Rotation Up	2025-09-26	2025-10-03	New	+1.2%
Rotation Down	2025-09-12	2025-09-19	New	+1.2%
Balance	2025-08-29	2025-09-05	New	-0.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-03-07	2025-08-22	Established	+5.4%
Rotation Up	2025-01-31	2025-02-28	Developing	+6.4%
Balance	2024-12-27	2025-01-24	Developing	+1.0%
Downward Expansion	2024-09-20	2024-12-20	Established	+0.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing39

Stage 2 · Advancing78

Stage 3 · Distribution58

Stage 4 · Declining22

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^TASI.SR

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 77/100
Current Relative Strength: 10.97
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +0.6%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +9.1%
Financial Services regime cohort: 57th percentile7 in cohort

Test 1050 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.98×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.83×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 1050 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity SAR 20.48falling

Slow Activity SAR 20.17rising

Trend Reference SAR 19.81-0.5% close margin

Current Fair Value SAR 16.66+18.3% close margin

Structural low SAR 18.38shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +4.8%

Annualized volatility +19.2%

From structural high -12.4%

From structural low +30.7%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^TASI.SR	Regime survived	Read
Near term	29	+0.6%-16.2% to +19.3%	+55.2%	+55.2%	-0.1%	+75.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	11	+5.6%-16.4% to +18.6%	+54.5%	+54.5%	+5.2%	+45.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	7	+0.8%-3.0% to +37.3%	+71.4%	+71.4%	+9.1%	+42.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+18.3%-12.2% to +42.3%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+27.1%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

1050 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map