Weekly structural research · NASDAQ · Financial Services

CG Stage Analysis

Carlyle Group Inc

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 38.42Tenure NewBenchmark QQQ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -73−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 80/100directional strength

Maturity 16/100lifecycle context

Confidence 78/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -17.0%USD 46.29 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	38.42	45.51	-33.17	17310755	Downward Expansion	-73	80
2026-10-02	39.82	45.74	-31.31	16929127	Downward Expansion	-68	75
2026-09-25	40.03	46.03	-31.34	14344924	Balance	-68	64
2026-09-18	40.10	46.42	-29.84	22886001	Balance	-56	37
2026-09-11	42.34	46.84	-26.24	12350429	Balance	-41	16
2026-09-04	46.97	47.23	-19.65	13786362	Balance	17	29
2026-08-28	49.09	47.60	-16.58	14448862	Balance	21	30
2026-08-21	49.37	47.89	-16.59	19945999	Balance	23	24
2026-08-14	48.93	48.26	-20.19	24933832	Balance	1	12
2026-08-07	47.45	48.79	-22.47	29242537	Balance	-20	15
2026-07-31	45.69	49.36	-22.25	16392936	Downward Expansion	-35	18
2026-07-24	45.07	49.83	-23.52	11292187	Downward Expansion	-41	25
2026-07-17	45.74	50.34	-24.37	13723667	Downward Expansion	-54	36
2026-07-10	44.71	50.77	-29.75	12331924	Downward Expansion	-57	41
2026-07-03	42.83	51.20	-32.10	16960823	Downward Expansion	-62	46
2026-06-26	41.40	51.65	-34.34	28249859	Downward Expansion	-73	60
2026-06-19	44.80	52.06	-32.62	10656235	Downward Expansion	-60	55
2026-06-12	45.75	52.27	-29.75	13510454	Downward Expansion	-59	60
2026-06-05	43.48	52.50	-32.02	21470833	Downward Expansion	-69	64
2026-05-29	45.43	52.76	-32.51	12401557	Downward Expansion	-63	46
2026-05-22	45.43	52.99	-30.90	16674922	Downward Expansion	-63	36
2026-05-15	47.66	53.38	-26.96	15581749	Downward Expansion	-43	25
2026-05-08	50.25	53.66	-23.57	20606698	Downward Expansion	-35	21
2026-05-01	49.07	53.82	-21.48	17091000	Downward Expansion	-39	23
2026-04-24	47.96	54.26	-22.20	16303118	Downward Expansion	-44	29
2026-04-17	52.29	54.75	-13.45	15526813	Downward Expansion	-47	35
2026-04-10	46.94	55.23	-17.47	14533418	Downward Expansion	-63	52
2026-04-03	46.20	55.84	-15.15	13972164	Downward Expansion	-66	73
2026-03-27	45.33	56.38	-13.50	13711885	Downward Expansion	-74	82
2026-03-20	46.78	56.98	-13.77	15385545	Downward Expansion	-73	81
2026-03-13	45.30	57.53	-18.29	18871555	Downward Expansion	-84	85
2026-03-06	48.54	58.10	-13.50	20470148	Downward Expansion	-79	76
2026-02-27	51.60	58.50	-9.25	18669363	Balance	-70	54
2026-02-20	52.83	58.69	-7.52	10612818	Balance	-57	42
2026-02-13	54.08	58.99	-4.35	20621185	Balance	-32	26
2026-02-06	57.90	59.14	1.04	23722326	Rotation Up	-3	8
2026-01-30	57.97	59.10	-0.87	14760799	Rotation Up	18	35
2026-01-23	60.43	58.98	2.98	9849275	Rotation Up	26	52
2026-01-16	64.72	58.63	10.39	10676214	Rotation Up	50	67
2026-01-09	64.51	57.99	9.13	10349525	Balance	51	58
2026-01-02	60.02	57.34	3.94	4884848	Balance	30	31
2025-12-26	60.25	56.84	2.56	7179697	Balance	20	25
2025-12-19	58.72	56.30	1.25	12474483	Balance	7	15
2025-12-12	57.55	55.78	-0.19	16957926	Rotation Down	-8	9
2025-12-05	56.32	55.39	-4.20	10750691	Rotation Down	-28	24
2025-11-28	53.78	54.87	-7.74	8534068	Rotation Down	-24	38
2025-11-21	51.01	54.39	-8.43	15524822	Rotation Down	-33	58
2025-11-14	52.59	53.95	-8.79	16524652	Deceleration	-28	48
2025-11-07	51.36	53.35	-11.25	20415612	Deceleration	-16	33
2025-10-31	52.24	52.81	-12.75	18125917	Deceleration	-14	30
2025-10-24	57.29	52.23	-2.75	11608008	Deceleration	11	22
2025-10-17	55.98	51.71	-2.99	10682552	Deceleration	23	24
2025-10-10	54.99	51.26	-2.55	13319499	Upward Expansion	31	25
2025-10-03	62.19	50.80	7.70	21655518	Upward Expansion	60	52
2025-09-26	62.69	50.11	10.12	13614557	Upward Expansion	63	58
2025-09-19	66.78	49.63	17.24	22350529	Upward Expansion	76	67
2025-09-12	65.25	49.01	17.61	11080591	Upward Expansion	75	67
2025-09-05	62.45	48.49	15.36	9844487	Upward Expansion	65	64
2025-08-29	63.25	48.09	18.68	12617636	Upward Expansion	73	68
2025-08-22	63.40	47.78	19.37	13986463	Upward Expansion	77	69
2025-08-15	62.22	47.49	16.80	12120354	Upward Expansion	77	80
2025-08-08	60.63	47.18	14.97	17180400	Upward Expansion	75	87
2025-08-01	57.20	46.77	13.03	10763162	Upward Expansion	68	88
2025-07-25	61.82	46.52	19.70	10458926	Rotation Up	89	96
2025-07-18	58.62	46.09	14.84	14075288	Rotation Up	61	85
2025-07-11	56.85	45.75	13.09	13294444	Rotation Up	63	82
2025-07-04	54.27	45.54	8.01	9550485	Rotation Up	52	68
2025-06-27	49.86	45.42	1.13	14771169	Balance	37	45
2025-06-20	45.66	45.46	-3.31	10480541	Balance	3	17
2025-06-13	45.00	45.66	-4.57	10142468	Balance	-2	16
2025-06-06	45.09	45.76	-4.76	7675677	Balance	-1	19
2025-05-30	44.04	45.92	-5.01	9756798	Downward Expansion	-18	22
2025-05-23	43.13	46.04	-5.28	13377051	Downward Expansion	-27	24
2025-05-16	45.87	46.20	-1.81	17393179	Downward Expansion	-25	20
2025-05-09	40.66	46.33	-7.03	14213874	Downward Expansion	-47	36
2025-05-02	39.42	46.51	-10.16	10293207	Downward Expansion	-62	51
2025-04-25	37.75	46.69	-11.17	18584545	Downward Expansion	-66	71
2025-04-18	34.67	46.82	-13.59	17076944	Downward Expansion	-76	83
2025-04-11	35.04	47.05	-15.03	35666461	Downward Expansion	-79	80
2025-04-04	34.71	47.16	-9.92	19283597	Rotation Down	-87	85
2025-03-28	41.74	47.18	-2.77	11946386	Rotation Down	-43	69
2025-03-21	42.68	47.07	-3.10	19970801	Rotation Down	-40	66
2025-03-14	40.97	46.93	-6.94	16557694	Balance	-43	58
2025-03-07	41.59	46.87	-8.09	14922658	Balance	-40	37
2025-02-28	48.21	46.73	2.73	9158467	Balance	16	18
2025-02-21	48.23	46.52	-0.76	12580468	Upward Expansion	28	15
2025-02-14	49.72	46.40	-0.07	20438046	Upward Expansion	54	38
2025-02-07	50.42	46.19	4.17	11217557	Upward Expansion	60	59
2025-01-31	53.94	45.87	11.60	7254553	Upward Expansion	68	65
2025-01-24	54.58	45.34	11.69	7930813	Upward Expansion	76	57
2025-01-17	53.06	44.79	10.51	9786073	Deceleration	69	41
2025-01-10	48.33	44.28	3.85	8367204	Deceleration	38	22
2025-01-03	49.78	43.90	4.73	5585112	Deceleration	44	30
2024-12-27	48.86	43.53	2.08	3934142	Upward Expansion	46	34
2024-12-20	48.24	43.25	1.70	13815241	Upward Expansion	58	45
2024-12-13	50.56	43.05	4.21	10457086	Upward Expansion	63	55
2024-12-06	50.76	42.72	5.40	12945332	Upward Expansion	65	57
2024-11-29	51.13	42.36	9.84	8669508	Upward Expansion	70	60
2024-11-22	51.53	41.94	11.94	13076025	Upward Expansion	78	70
2024-11-15	48.14	41.66	7.04	15562671	Upward Expansion	64	70
2024-11-08	49.92	41.44	7.68	17464081	Upward Expansion	77	86
2024-11-01	47.62	41.20	8.89	8326954	Upward Expansion	67	82
2024-10-25	47.91	41.09	8.34	7821914	Upward Expansion	72	82
2024-10-18	49.87	40.96	13.54	19573508	Balance	86	84
2024-10-11	46.05	40.75	5.71	12771949	Balance	46	52
2024-10-04	44.72	40.61	4.38	12847669	Balance	30	28
2024-09-27	41.58	40.60	-2.48	6708809	Downward Expansion	-17	8
2024-09-20	41.67	40.64	-1.11	17228940	Downward Expansion	-34	21
2024-09-13	38.20	40.65	-7.82	11852764	Downward Expansion	-57	57
2024-09-06	35.51	40.76	-9.29	6041190	Balance	-72	65
2024-08-30	38.28	40.96	-7.91	10224306	Balance	-46	36
2024-08-23	38.40	40.96	-8.35	12069240	Balance	-43	29
2024-08-16	39.22	40.94	-5.34	11450536	Balance	-33	13
2024-08-09	37.42	40.86	-4.61	19458339	Rotation Up	-11	16
2024-08-02	41.84	40.83	7.11	16256918	Rotation Up	26	33
2024-07-26	44.65	40.66	11.13	8307814	Rotation Down	41	35
2024-07-19	43.45	40.43	5.66	13080173	Rotation Down	21	16
2024-07-12	40.89	40.25	-4.37	8875759	Rotation Down	-19	18
2024-07-05	38.11	40.18	-11.11	4347425	Rotation Down	-33	51
2024-06-28	37.98	40.06	-8.32	9215077	Rotation Down	-33	53
2024-06-21	37.93	39.88	-8.49	14692062	Rotation Down	-26	47
2024-06-14	36.94	39.63	-10.63	13179955	Deceleration	-34	39
2024-06-07	38.48	39.38	-3.66	10053370	Deceleration	-7	10
2024-05-31	40.63	39.02	4.63	8897120	Deceleration	12	9
2024-05-24	42.14	38.57	7.16	9152994	Deceleration	17	18
2024-05-17	40.72	38.01	5.41	9974772	Deceleration	11	17
2024-05-10	39.87	37.50	5.83	8304791	Deceleration	20	21
2024-05-03	38.51	37.07	4.14	15627311	Deceleration	21	17
2024-04-26	43.25	36.70	18.54	6588509	Upward Expansion	49	36
2024-04-19	41.35	36.18	18.20	10226433	Upward Expansion	48	41
2024-04-12	42.95	35.74	16.52	9663456	Upward Expansion	63	55
2024-04-05	44.23	35.33	19.69	11084707	Upward Expansion	70	62
2024-03-29	44.00	34.85	18.61	7190324	Upward Expansion	72	66
2024-03-22	43.54	34.39	17.05	10453482	Upward Expansion	72	67
2024-03-15	41.82	33.86	16.04	13222051	Upward Expansion	67	72
2024-03-08	44.41	33.37	21.99	13431575	Upward Expansion	82	87
2024-03-01	42.78	32.86	15.94	11984167	Upward Expansion	78	86
2024-02-23	41.87	32.41	15.46	10173625	Upward Expansion	76	81
2024-02-16	41.49	32.09	15.75	14974450	Upward Expansion	79	73
2024-02-09	41.68	31.76	14.34	17095243	Upward Expansion	84	68
2024-02-02	38.11	31.40	6.32	8088190	Upward Expansion	69	60
2024-01-26	37.79	31.10	6.20	9416078	Upward Expansion	69	60
2024-01-19	36.98	30.81	4.14	8789927	Upward Expansion	64	63
2024-01-12	36.64	30.48	5.63	11266211	Upward Expansion	66	77
2024-01-05	36.61	30.21	8.52	8475637	Upward Expansion	68	88
2023-12-29	37.87	29.91	8.50	8004568	Upward Expansion	76	91
2023-12-22	37.88	29.52	8.69	12709634	Upward Expansion	85	95
2023-12-15	38.94	29.10	12.61	22964875	Upward Expansion	95	96
2023-12-08	34.37	28.63	2.73	18218426	Balance	86	85
2023-12-01	32.74	28.30	-1.72	68474173	Balance	70	53
2023-11-24	30.32	28.01	-9.17	7502710	Balance	24	25
2023-11-17	29.32	27.90	-11.63	11263704	Rotation Down	6	6
2023-11-10	27.77	27.83	-14.88	14511482	Rotation Down	-29	31
2023-11-03	27.05	27.82	-15.04	11281202	Rotation Down	-34	53
2023-10-27	25.41	27.79	-15.38	8390075	Rotation Down	-35	57
2023-10-20	25.53	27.88	-17.52	12381927	Rotation Down	-35	52

Price vs TrendBelow-15.6%

Trend directionFalling-7.8%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-17.0%

Fair Value directionMoving away-16.4%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-33.2%

Relative strength directionWeakening-3.4%

Price momentumNegative-18.1%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.85×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-73 / ±100

-31.7 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

80 /100

+63.7 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

CG Directional State ↗ CG Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance16

Rotation Up8

Upward Expansion18

Deceleration37

Rotation Down80

Downward Expansion93

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 21%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 30%Deceleration 10%Rotation Down 12%Downward Expansion 22%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-10-02	2026-10-09	New	-3.5%
Balance	2026-08-07	2026-09-25	Developing	-15.6%
Downward Expansion	2026-03-06	2026-07-31	Established	-5.9%
Balance	2026-02-13	2026-02-27	New	-4.6%
Rotation Up	2026-01-16	2026-02-06	New	-10.5%
Balance	2025-12-19	2026-01-09	New	+9.9%
Rotation Down	2025-11-21	2025-12-12	New	+12.8%
Deceleration	2025-10-17	2025-11-14	Developing	-6.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-01	2025-10-10	Developing	-3.9%
Rotation Up	2025-07-04	2025-07-25	New	+13.9%
Balance	2025-06-06	2025-06-27	New	+10.6%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-11	2025-05-30	Developing	+25.7%
Rotation Down	2025-03-21	2025-04-04	New	-18.7%
Balance	2025-02-28	2025-03-14	New	-15.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing49

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution23

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 89/100
Current Relative Strength: -33.17
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -18.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -41.1%
Financial Services regime cohort: 37th percentile71 in cohort

Test CG trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.01×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.85×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore CG Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 39.60falling

Slow Activity USD 44.55falling

Trend Reference USD 45.51-15.6% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 46.29-17.0% close margin

Structural low USD 37.08shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +9.1%

Annualized volatility +34.2%

From structural high -42.1%

From structural low +3.6%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs QQQ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	20	+5.2%-19.2% to +21.3%	+60.0%	+40.0%	+0.1%	+75.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	8	+0.4%-14.6% to +62.2%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+2.2%	+37.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	+2.0%-20.7% to +56.9%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+2.5%	+16.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+55.0%-25.9% to +70.8%	+66.7%	+33.3%	+27.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

CG Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map