Weekly structural research ยท TAI ยท Consumer Cyclical

1447 Stage Analysis

Li Peng Enterprise Co., Ltd.

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close TWD 6.54Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^TWII
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Deceleration ยท Momentum cooling

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

  • The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
  • Activity structure: compressed and expanding.
Direction 0โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 30/100directional strength
Maturity 42/100lifecycle context
Confidence 58/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Upstructural direction
Activity structure Compressedexpanding separation
Price acceptance -50.0%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context -8.0%TWD 7.11 ยท weakening
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-10-026.546.34-18.575145807Deceleration030
2026-09-256.396.31-20.502922906Deceleration015
2026-09-186.476.28-18.994318311Deceleration314
2026-09-116.496.24-17.804764445Deceleration812
2026-09-046.716.21-16.586150366Deceleration2919
2026-08-286.886.17-14.941139504Deceleration3122
2026-08-217.186.11-10.052008272Deceleration3225
2026-08-146.896.05-15.501221212Deceleration3525
2026-08-077.045.99-11.512157668Upward Expansion4329
2026-07-316.785.94-13.482283590Upward Expansion6049
2026-07-247.505.89-6.462103322Upward Expansion6583
2026-07-178.165.823.202283431Upward Expansion6586
2026-07-108.385.74-1.010Upward Expansion7989
2026-07-039.995.6513.4895387490Upward Expansion9594
2026-06-266.225.50-26.228073104Upward Expansion6466
2026-06-196.035.47-32.265059961Upward Expansion6374
2026-06-126.155.45-28.4013666498Upward Expansion6275
2026-06-056.415.42-27.8824207605Rotation Up7873
2026-05-296.215.40-30.6214344495Rotation Up4951
2026-05-226.005.38-30.0920500089Rotation Up2219
2026-05-155.345.37-37.0313138094Downward Expansion-4833
2026-05-084.955.38-43.203658423Downward Expansion-6657
2026-05-014.995.41-39.824256695Downward Expansion-6250
2026-04-245.025.43-40.466006599Downward Expansion-6355
2026-04-175.285.46-34.877664057Downward Expansion-5351
2026-04-105.055.48-36.293814133Balance-6257
2026-04-035.125.50-30.872581278Balance-5841
2026-03-275.225.52-31.669811868Balance-4219
2026-03-205.325.54-32.2013798251Balance-2413
2026-03-135.445.56-31.294093618Balance-1211
2026-03-065.705.58-29.314619123Balance110
2026-02-275.525.59-35.803325244Downward Expansion-2616
2026-02-135.345.60-35.331829943Downward Expansion-3919
2026-02-065.455.62-31.063392118Downward Expansion-3922
2026-01-305.525.64-31.4919255805Downward Expansion-5334
2026-01-235.205.66-35.904065834Downward Expansion-7069
2026-01-165.245.68-34.994170392Downward Expansion-6965
2026-01-095.275.70-32.854841515Downward Expansion-7061
2026-01-025.335.73-30.581698325Downward Expansion-6742
2025-12-265.425.76-28.111709273Downward Expansion-5027
2025-12-195.445.78-26.292405945Downward Expansion-5028
2025-12-125.655.81-25.461372130Downward Expansion-4532
2025-12-055.635.84-25.833040491Downward Expansion-6151
2025-11-285.455.87-28.031575003Downward Expansion-6477
2025-11-215.295.90-27.722036074Downward Expansion-8385
2025-11-145.445.93-28.991910294Downward Expansion-7369
2025-11-075.495.96-29.642576485Downward Expansion-7260
2025-10-315.555.99-31.041994605Downward Expansion-7149
2025-10-245.706.03-28.101887034Downward Expansion-5741
2025-10-175.656.08-28.792276026Downward Expansion-6746
2025-10-105.756.13-28.231848141Downward Expansion-5838
2025-10-035.716.18-28.091522672Downward Expansion-6544
2025-09-265.726.22-25.462747317Downward Expansion-6443
2025-09-195.936.28-23.582569529Downward Expansion-5742
2025-09-125.716.32-26.911987251Downward Expansion-6649
2025-09-055.796.38-23.722129842Downward Expansion-6349
2025-08-295.746.42-24.342310644Downward Expansion-6950
2025-08-225.916.47-21.395497236Downward Expansion-5744
2025-08-155.756.51-26.077065222Downward Expansion-7653
2025-08-085.986.54-23.122670591Downward Expansion-5041
2025-08-015.996.58-22.062537557Downward Expansion-6048
2025-07-256.026.62-22.452897053Downward Expansion-6253
2025-07-185.996.65-23.842528083Downward Expansion-6568
2025-07-115.956.70-22.962257112Downward Expansion-6878
2025-07-045.976.75-22.852352867Downward Expansion-6658
2025-06-275.956.81-23.842611945Downward Expansion-7167
2025-06-205.876.87-23.764536379Downward Expansion-8066
2025-06-136.176.94-20.763239735Downward Expansion-6655
2025-06-066.096.99-21.102702217Downward Expansion-7356
2025-05-306.267.06-18.501383697Downward Expansion-6751
2025-05-236.347.12-19.171868832Downward Expansion-6453
2025-05-166.427.18-19.482749129Downward Expansion-6361
2025-05-096.497.23-15.463092515Downward Expansion-6682
2025-05-026.337.30-17.432209544Downward Expansion-6887
2025-04-256.207.38-15.822423459Downward Expansion-8392
2025-04-186.237.47-13.723189928Downward Expansion-8886
2025-04-116.407.55-12.2517764558Downward Expansion-8564
2025-04-047.007.62-12.283025142Downward Expansion-6544
2025-03-287.107.68-12.582672362Downward Expansion-5840
2025-03-217.257.75-13.463721481Downward Expansion-5236
2025-03-147.057.82-15.343520527Downward Expansion-6239
2025-03-077.147.91-16.983864558Downward Expansion-4430
2025-02-287.258.01-17.963932659Downward Expansion-3930
2025-02-217.308.12-20.343809560Downward Expansion-4437
2025-02-147.328.23-18.654358986Downward Expansion-4742
2025-02-077.178.32-21.843781800Downward Expansion-6259
2025-01-247.128.44-23.00887213Downward Expansion-6565
2025-01-177.178.52-21.703829511Downward Expansion-6766
2025-01-106.798.61-25.865317048Downward Expansion-8492
2025-01-036.988.72-23.973410748Downward Expansion-8291
2024-12-277.168.83-23.772377743Downward Expansion-7890
2024-12-207.118.92-22.236192835Downward Expansion-8788
2024-12-137.318.98-22.3310259415Downward Expansion-8683
2024-12-067.669.05-19.775558015Downward Expansion-7367
2024-11-297.769.07-15.836258540Downward Expansion-7079
2024-11-227.809.08-18.194392446Downward Expansion-7085
2024-11-157.819.09-17.9614112365Downward Expansion-7386
2024-11-087.809.09-21.276194301Downward Expansion-7789
2024-11-017.949.10-17.604195071Rotation Down-7483
2024-10-258.069.09-18.806138359Rotation Down-4469
2024-10-188.139.09-19.048199780Rotation Down-4362
2024-10-118.159.09-17.175600397Rotation Down-4549
2024-10-048.489.09-11.833877089Rotation Down-2730
2024-09-278.739.09-11.575698850Rotation Down-2238
2024-09-208.889.08-7.674965287Rotation Down-2143
2024-09-138.789.07-7.2710676080Rotation Down-2141
2024-09-068.359.05-10.649083747Upward Expansion-3438
2024-08-308.969.03-7.985901453Upward Expansion-118
2024-08-239.058.98-6.8310445022Upward Expansion1518
2024-08-169.358.94-4.7811497657Upward Expansion3317
2024-08-099.768.893.2720230935Upward Expansion4431
2024-08-0210.058.825.4615950331Upward Expansion5743
2024-07-2610.608.758.8016928443Upward Expansion6653
2024-07-1910.758.666.8329287039Upward Expansion7355
2024-07-129.998.57-5.0235935443Upward Expansion6250
2024-07-0510.758.503.6230047917Upward Expansion8566
2024-06-289.458.41-6.8817373546Upward Expansion6764
2024-06-2110.058.37-2.1818608636Upward Expansion7289
2024-06-1410.108.301.4328346096Upward Expansion8092
2024-06-0710.208.225.4119633924Upward Expansion9297
2024-05-319.788.134.3126870995Upward Expansion9193
2024-05-249.038.06-5.4916840498Upward Expansion7681
2024-05-179.308.01-1.4932330771Upward Expansion8271
2024-05-108.267.95-10.376970918Balance3817
2024-05-038.177.92-10.108482218Balance2211
2024-04-268.017.89-11.407958233Balance913
2024-04-197.807.88-11.566135292Balance1016
2024-04-127.947.87-15.633338505Balance1918
2024-04-057.927.85-14.654608175Upward Expansion2516
2024-03-298.027.84-13.815683070Upward Expansion3821
2024-03-228.017.83-14.028247216Upward Expansion5436
2024-03-158.317.82-8.7412366616Upward Expansion5971
2024-03-088.307.79-9.6611770310Upward Expansion5972
2024-03-018.337.77-5.689870605Upward Expansion6372
2024-02-238.717.76-1.5036093903Deceleration8172
2024-02-168.147.73-6.8610268107Deceleration5124
2024-02-097.677.72-10.10729455Deceleration-2024
2024-02-027.707.72-9.832443166Deceleration1121
2024-01-267.827.72-8.373112933Deceleration2225
2024-01-197.657.73-9.094608374Deceleration1321
2024-01-127.737.74-7.583946072Rotation Up3420
2024-01-057.887.75-6.182519414Rotation Up5946
2023-12-297.937.75-8.093892817Rotation Up3757
2023-12-228.027.75-5.655764376Rotation Up4071
2023-12-158.177.75-4.617942636Rotation Up5781
2023-12-088.027.74-5.075828343Rotation Up4171
2023-12-017.997.73-6.017554019Rotation Up4362
2023-11-247.967.73-5.837599445Downward Expansion4038
2023-11-177.767.74-8.075730520Downward Expansion-718
2023-11-107.567.75-8.051992547Downward Expansion-3621
2023-11-037.607.77-7.121421426Downward Expansion-4329
2023-10-277.627.78-5.245264130Downward Expansion-5843
2023-10-207.457.79-9.533475360Downward Expansion-6466
2023-10-137.377.81-12.821334724Downward Expansion-7777
2023-10-067.447.83-11.202171145Downward Expansion-7066
2023-09-297.507.85-10.153274789Downward Expansion-6556
Price vs TrendAbove+3.2%
Trend directionRising+7.6%
Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-8.0%
Fair Value directionMoving away-47.4%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-18.6%
Relative strength directionWeakening-32.0%
Price momentumPositive+27.7%
Volume balanceSupply-led0.34ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

0 / ยฑ100

-29.2 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

30 /100

+10.9 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance54
Rotation Up15
Upward Expansion48
Deceleration69
Rotation Down44
Downward Expansion42

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2023-09-29 to 2026-10-02 ยท 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 7%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 21%Deceleration 9%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 52%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Deceleration2026-08-142026-10-02Developing-5.1%
Upward Expansion2026-06-122026-08-07Developing+14.5%
Rotation Up2026-05-222026-06-05New+6.8%
Downward Expansion2026-04-172026-05-15Developing+1.1%
Balance2026-03-062026-04-10Developing-11.4%
Downward Expansion2024-11-082026-02-27Extended-29.2%
Rotation Down2024-09-132024-11-01Developing-9.6%
Upward Expansion2024-05-172024-09-06Established-10.2%
Balance2024-04-122024-05-10Developing+4.0%
Upward Expansion2024-03-012024-04-05Developing-4.9%
Deceleration2024-01-192024-02-23Developing+13.9%
Rotation Up2023-12-012024-01-12Developing-3.3%
Downward Expansion2023-08-182023-11-24Established+4.9%
Balance2023-03-242023-08-11Established-3.1%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing32
Stage 2 ยท Advancing44
Stage 3 ยท Distribution51
Stage 4 ยท Declining37

Legacy result: Stage 1 ยท Stage 1B ยท Basing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^TWII

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
4/100
Current Relative Strength
-18.57
Relative Strength direction
Weakening
Price momentum
+27.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-21.1%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort
2th percentile46 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume0.47ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.34ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity TWD 6.49falling
Slow Activity TWD 6.71rising
Trend Reference TWD 6.34+3.2% close margin
Current Fair Value TWD 7.11-8.0% close margin
Structural low TWD 4.90shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +8.1%
Annualized volatility +78.5%
From structural high -34.5%
From structural low +33.5%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^TWII Regime survived Read
Near term5-5.1%-7.9% to +6.4%+40.0%+40.0%-3.2%+40.0%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate2-3.1%-8.3% to +2.0%+50.0%+50.0%-11.0%+0.0%Too little matched history
Extended2+18.1%-4.3% to +40.5%+50.0%+50.0%-5.5%+0.0%Too little matched history
Full cycle2-8.6%-11.0% to -6.3%+0.0%+0.0%-35.6%+0.0%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context