Weekly structural research · ASX · Industrials

LAU Stage Analysis

Lindsay Australia Limited

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close AUD 0.73Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^AXJO

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Early expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and contracting.

Direction 64−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 54/100directional strength

Maturity 68/100lifecycle context

Confidence 86/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Widecontracting separation

Price acceptance +83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -2.3%AUD 0.747 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	0.73	0.6414	15.29	1088335	Upward Expansion	64	54
2026-10-02	0.73	0.6372	16.22	2350963	Upward Expansion	67	59
2026-09-25	0.733	0.6335	17.42	1821621	Upward Expansion	70	66
2026-09-18	0.7135	0.6314	13.82	1730087	Upward Expansion	68	83
2026-09-11	0.733	0.6308	17.18	1661502	Upward Expansion	76	90
2026-09-04	0.7232	0.6282	12.66	318861	Upward Expansion	78	91
2026-08-28	0.7574	0.6252	17.14	526938	Upward Expansion	95	95
2026-08-21	0.675	0.6213	5.11	168499	Rotation Up	69	84
2026-08-14	0.675	0.6204	4.38	199589	Rotation Up	43	73
2026-08-07	0.665	0.6204	0.99	49076	Rotation Up	38	71
2026-07-31	0.68	0.6211	6.28	154809	Rotation Up	44	70
2026-07-24	0.66	0.621	5.43	73787	Rotation Up	37	54
2026-07-17	0.665	0.6208	5.66	583282	Downward Expansion	39	36
2026-07-10	0.63	0.6212	-0.06	383412	Downward Expansion	-8	15
2026-07-03	0.585	0.6214	-7.78	283198	Downward Expansion	-39	23
2026-06-26	0.585	0.623	-7.25	404168	Downward Expansion	-54	36
2026-06-19	0.59	0.6249	-7.46	300507	Downward Expansion	-59	57
2026-06-12	0.575	0.6249	-9.81	563076	Downward Expansion	-63	74
2026-06-05	0.55	0.6248	-12.27	12984624	Downward Expansion	-71	76
2026-05-29	0.56	0.6263	-12.11	631877	Downward Expansion	-69	68
2026-05-22	0.545	0.6271	-14.08	1889223	Balance	-75	58
2026-05-15	0.605	0.6292	-4.69	888451	Balance	-40	21
2026-05-08	0.62	0.6291	-3.89	1461532	Balance	-5	6
2026-05-01	0.615	0.6289	-4.87	1602175	Balance	-7	7
2026-04-24	0.615	0.6288	-5.76	2100696	Rotation Down	-11	10
2026-04-17	0.63	0.6293	-5.52	2919701	Rotation Down	-24	20
2026-04-10	0.615	0.6287	-8.12	2723771	Rotation Down	-22	45
2026-04-03	0.60	0.6286	-6.64	2346159	Rotation Down	-23	53
2026-03-27	0.5937	0.6299	-7.30	3522598	Rotation Down	-27	48
2026-03-20	0.5888	0.6315	-7.40	2853316	Deceleration	-30	37
2026-03-13	0.6033	0.635	-7.43	4261338	Deceleration	-3	7
2026-03-06	0.6178	0.6391	-7.98	10005641	Deceleration	19	14
2026-02-27	0.6709	0.6425	-4.17	4976672	Deceleration	52	33
2026-02-20	0.695	0.6433	0.65	2568612	Deceleration	29	17
2026-02-13	0.6564	0.6446	-3.21	1873764	Deceleration	4	13
2026-02-06	0.6323	0.6454	-4.98	2332210	Rotation Up	1	8
2026-01-30	0.6419	0.6468	-5.75	1400892	Rotation Up	16	17
2026-01-23	0.6467	0.6481	-5.47	3458275	Rotation Up	30	30
2026-01-16	0.6757	0.6492	-2.23	2764036	Rotation Up	26	48
2026-01-09	0.6854	0.6485	0.76	2112749	Rotation Up	35	57
2026-01-02	0.6757	0.6483	-1.22	1090713	Rotation Up	33	48
2025-12-26	0.6564	0.6481	-4.96	1642176	Rotation Up	22	31
2025-12-19	0.6757	0.6485	-1.11	3935641	Downward Expansion	15	28
2025-12-12	0.6371	0.6476	-8.08	3166061	Downward Expansion	-22	21
2025-12-05	0.6323	0.6491	-8.66	4266100	Downward Expansion	-37	20
2025-11-28	0.6419	0.6515	-7.56	4371420	Downward Expansion	-39	30
2025-11-21	0.5888	0.6526	-13.71	2474401	Downward Expansion	-62	57
2025-11-14	0.5743	0.6551	-18.45	3593964	Downward Expansion	-72	63
2025-11-07	0.5937	0.6566	-17.61	3848923	Downward Expansion	-65	55
2025-10-31	0.584	0.6571	-20.47	5570184	Downward Expansion	-72	59
2025-10-24	0.6081	0.6593	-19.01	5745889	Downward Expansion	-62	49
2025-10-17	0.6033	0.661	-20.02	2827106	Downward Expansion	-65	49
2025-10-10	0.613	0.6619	-19.01	2871363	Rotation Down	-63	60
2025-10-03	0.613	0.6627	-19.92	4229934	Rotation Down	-39	60
2025-09-26	0.6274	0.6642	-16.78	2236345	Rotation Down	-34	58
2025-09-19	0.6133	0.6622	-19.08	3317505	Rotation Down	-31	51
2025-09-12	0.6133	0.6631	-20.48	2705675	Rotation Up	-32	36
2025-09-05	0.6369	0.669	-18.05	2220078	Rotation Up	-13	17
2025-08-29	0.6416	0.674	-18.86	9252893	Rotation Up	16	9
2025-08-22	0.6935	0.6796	-12.71	3644784	Rotation Up	54	42
2025-08-15	0.7265	0.6827	-8.79	4028967	Rotation Up	38	54
2025-08-08	0.7218	0.6853	-8.40	5403180	Rotation Up	37	48
2025-08-01	0.6935	0.6881	-10.92	5788616	Rotation Up	26	34
2025-07-25	0.7359	0.6925	-6.02	4701011	Balance	44	37
2025-07-18	0.6793	0.695	-14.44	3498084	Balance	-9	8
2025-07-11	0.6746	0.6995	-13.86	2167554	Balance	-14	7
2025-07-04	0.6793	0.7041	-13.95	2750435	Balance	-13	7
2025-06-27	0.6793	0.7085	-13.56	2630299	Downward Expansion	-27	14
2025-06-20	0.6557	0.7135	-16.83	2190255	Downward Expansion	-35	19
2025-06-13	0.6793	0.7184	-14.67	2876595	Downward Expansion	-22	16
2025-06-06	0.6699	0.7227	-15.83	2346502	Downward Expansion	-23	15
2025-05-30	0.6699	0.7264	-15.36	4195932	Downward Expansion	-21	14
2025-05-23	0.6463	0.73	-18.05	3278089	Downward Expansion	-38	22
2025-05-16	0.684	0.7356	-13.60	7808181	Downward Expansion	-31	21
2025-05-09	0.7029	0.7402	-10.54	1714868	Downward Expansion	-36	20
2025-05-02	0.6746	0.7453	-14.67	2273859	Downward Expansion	-43	32
2025-04-25	0.6652	0.7503	-13.49	806192	Downward Expansion	-46	38
2025-04-18	0.618	0.756	-18.60	1862715	Downward Expansion	-62	47
2025-04-11	0.6086	0.7632	-18.69	2325492	Downward Expansion	-68	51
2025-04-04	0.651	0.7701	-13.99	2834367	Downward Expansion	-59	50
2025-03-28	0.6585	0.7748	-16.93	1866846	Downward Expansion	-62	57
2025-03-21	0.6311	0.7788	-20.51	2883380	Downward Expansion	-66	86
2025-03-14	0.6356	0.7856	-19.26	3547407	Downward Expansion	-69	88
2025-03-07	0.6585	0.791	-18.80	32345260	Downward Expansion	-66	86
2025-02-28	0.567	0.7957	-32.56	7574617	Downward Expansion	-96	96
2025-02-21	0.6402	0.8046	-25.71	5284265	Downward Expansion	-90	79
2025-02-14	0.7911	0.8101	-11.84	1421144	Balance	-53	42
2025-02-07	0.7865	0.8127	-12.40	1557469	Balance	-53	39
2025-01-31	0.8094	0.8141	-10.58	1121617	Balance	-45	28
2025-01-24	0.7865	0.815	-12.29	1450539	Balance	-52	29
2025-01-17	0.8048	0.8148	-9.67	893734	Balance	-34	13
2025-01-10	0.8048	0.814	-9.94	1616796	Balance	-23	9
2025-01-03	0.8277	0.8118	-7.43	1006529	Balance	36	15
2024-12-27	0.8094	0.81	-10.13	347288	Balance	-0	1
2024-12-20	0.814	0.8099	-8.01	1828697	Balance	3	5
2024-12-13	0.814	0.8103	-11.09	1801874	Balance	1	4
2024-12-06	0.8094	0.8122	-13.54	1481121	Balance	-1	3
2024-11-29	0.8323	0.8142	-11.92	1882130	Balance	-23	11
2024-11-22	0.8003	0.8142	-15.43	1697037	Balance	-48	35
2024-11-15	0.8094	0.8164	-13.82	4155081	Balance	-38	28
2024-11-08	0.782	0.8198	-17.41	1859754	Balance	-46	29
2024-11-01	0.7774	0.8255	-16.63	2896173	Balance	-35	17
2024-10-25	0.814	0.8298	-14.12	1829911	Balance	-6	6
2024-10-18	0.8231	0.8349	-14.42	2814464	Balance	-8	12
2024-10-11	0.8551	0.8411	-10.94	1648058	Balance	-1	11
2024-10-04	0.8231	0.8464	-14.06	1387813	Balance	-15	12
2024-09-27	0.8368	0.8523	-13.76	2785184	Balance	-12	7
2024-09-20	0.8342	0.8556	-14.50	2026321	Balance	-20	13
2024-09-13	0.8165	0.8608	-15.68	2027116	Downward Expansion	-47	24
2024-09-06	0.7899	0.8652	-18.01	1000261	Downward Expansion	-53	30
2024-08-30	0.781	0.8703	-20.28	1928233	Downward Expansion	-49	29
2024-08-23	0.8342	0.876	-14.66	5187699	Downward Expansion	-35	20
2024-08-16	0.7987	0.8793	-18.21	2321949	Downward Expansion	-52	30
2024-08-09	0.7987	0.8835	-16.63	1984776	Downward Expansion	-41	20
2024-08-02	0.8342	0.8892	-15.19	1555160	Downward Expansion	-30	18
2024-07-26	0.8032	0.8947	-18.66	2082107	Downward Expansion	-34	22
2024-07-19	0.8697	0.9017	-13.22	2149512	Downward Expansion	-31	20
2024-07-12	0.8298	0.9067	-17.71	1169951	Downward Expansion	-42	29
2024-07-05	0.8342	0.9138	-16.47	2069419	Downward Expansion	-58	45
2024-06-28	0.781	0.9195	-21.84	2239018	Downward Expansion	-63	66
2024-06-21	0.781	0.9256	-22.51	3203259	Downward Expansion	-64	75
2024-06-14	0.741	0.9296	-26.14	2449678	Downward Expansion	-80	84
2024-06-07	0.7721	0.9374	-24.77	2508230	Downward Expansion	-78	76
2024-05-31	0.8076	0.9422	-20.26	2662677	Downward Expansion	-71	61
2024-05-24	0.8254	0.9446	-19.19	1668941	Downward Expansion	-68	60
2024-05-17	0.8697	0.9478	-16.37	2573179	Downward Expansion	-60	61
2024-05-10	0.8697	0.9508	-16.21	8476475	Downward Expansion	-62	65
2024-05-03	0.8342	0.954	-18.92	4195767	Downward Expansion	-76	72
2024-04-26	0.8653	0.9574	-15.79	2701730	Balance	-71	61
2024-04-19	0.9097	0.9609	-11.82	1786250	Balance	-32	28
2024-04-12	0.954	0.963	-10.57	2700608	Balance	-5	9
2024-04-05	0.9052	0.9642	-14.96	4226902	Balance	-20	8
2024-03-29	0.9698	0.9681	-10.38	1662971	Balance	47	36
2024-03-22	1.01	0.9688	-5.08	2294075	Balance	53	44
2024-03-15	1.01	0.9682	-3.19	3293900	Balance	47	27
2024-03-08	1.00	0.9666	-6.22	3981183	Balance	14	10
2024-03-01	0.935	0.9667	-10.72	6775868	Balance	-31	15
2024-02-23	0.9915	0.9716	-3.65	2729974	Balance	-11	7
2024-02-16	0.948	0.9773	-7.53	3790069	Balance	-49	38
2024-02-09	0.9437	0.9846	-7.18	3663690	Balance	-49	35
2024-02-02	0.9524	0.991	-6.43	3259351	Balance	-39	28
2024-01-26	0.9306	0.9959	-6.19	2362920	Balance	-42	26
2024-01-19	0.9263	0.9971	-4.35	2398076	Balance	-40	19
2024-01-12	0.9698	0.9975	-0.29	6352675	Balance	7	9
2024-01-05	1.00	0.997	3.58	1312879	Balance	14	24
2023-12-29	1.01	0.9983	4.19	1340188	Balance	13	23
2023-12-22	1.02	0.9977	6.57	1867766	Balance	15	21
2023-12-15	1.04	1.00	10.97	2557917	Balance	1	10
2023-12-08	1.00	1.00	11.51	2285079	Downward Expansion	-23	14
2023-12-01	0.9654	1.01	10.09	2122010	Downward Expansion	-38	21
2023-11-24	0.9002	1.01	4.11	2235817	Downward Expansion	-57	34
2023-11-17	0.9741	1.02	13.48	2742113	Downward Expansion	-51	32
2023-11-10	0.9176	1.02	9.15	3822128	Downward Expansion	-55	48
2023-11-03	0.8784	1.02	5.52	5460490	Downward Expansion	-67	52
2023-10-27	0.9219	1.02	14.10	2162575	Downward Expansion	-61	47
2023-10-20	0.9611	1.02	18.78	1534907	Downward Expansion	-53	43

Price vs TrendAbove+13.8%

Trend directionRising+3.3%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-2.3%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+16.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+15.3%

Relative strength directionImproving+15.3%

Price momentumPositive+18.7%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.09×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

64 / ±100

-11.5 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

54 /100

-35.6 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

LAU Directional State ↗ LAU Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance5

Rotation Up54

Upward Expansion85

Deceleration66

Rotation Down27

Downward Expansion10

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 32%Rotation Up 12%Upward Expansion 5%Deceleration 4%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 42%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-08-28	2026-10-09	Developing	-3.6%
Rotation Up	2026-07-24	2026-08-21	Developing	+2.3%
Downward Expansion	2026-05-29	2026-07-17	Developing	+18.8%
Balance	2026-05-01	2026-05-22	New	-11.4%
Rotation Down	2026-03-27	2026-04-24	Developing	+3.6%
Deceleration	2026-02-13	2026-03-20	Developing	-10.3%
Rotation Up	2025-12-26	2026-02-06	Developing	-3.7%
Downward Expansion	2025-10-17	2025-12-19	Developing	+12.0%
Rotation Down	2025-09-19	2025-10-10	New	-0.1%
Rotation Up	2025-08-01	2025-09-12	Developing	-11.6%
Balance	2025-07-04	2025-07-25	New	+8.3%
Downward Expansion	2025-02-21	2025-06-27	Established	+6.1%
Balance	2024-09-20	2025-02-14	Established	-5.2%
Downward Expansion	2024-05-03	2024-09-13	Established	-2.1%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing42

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution39

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2A · Early advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AXJO

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 85/100
Current Relative Strength: 15.29
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +18.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +21.4%
Industrials regime cohort: 45th percentile31 in cohort

Test LAU trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.83×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.09×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore LAU Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity AUD 0.7286rising

Slow Activity AUD 0.6688rising

Trend Reference AUD 0.6414+13.8% close margin

Current Fair Value AUD 0.747-2.3% close margin

Structural low AUD 0.54shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +4.7%

Annualized volatility +29.2%

From structural high -3.6%

From structural low +35.2%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Regime survived	Read
Near term	22	+1.3%-14.6% to +34.0%	+54.5%	+54.5%	+0.8%	+77.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	8	+5.5%-13.5% to +91.4%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+8.1%	+37.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	+44.5%+4.0% to +57.6%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+43.3%	+50.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	+22.6%-30.8% to +199.8%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+30.5%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

LAU Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

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