Weekly structural research · NYSE · Industrials

EPAC Stage Analysis

Enerpac Tool Group Corp

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 34.93Tenure NewBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Upper balance after advance

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction -19−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 19/100directional strength

Maturity 9/100lifecycle context

Confidence 61/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance -83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -9.3%USD 38.50 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	34.93	35.52	-15.15	1868339	Balance	-19	19
2026-10-02	35.60	35.55	-12.99	2344344	Balance	18	18
2026-09-25	35.66	35.60	-13.53	1997886	Balance	23	17
2026-09-18	35.32	35.77	-13.73	3008024	Rotation Up	-1	4
2026-09-11	35.18	36.00	-14.64	1347524	Rotation Up	14	14
2026-09-04	37.30	36.26	-10.81	1783003	Rotation Up	30	43
2026-08-28	37.61	36.44	-10.54	1756564	Rotation Up	34	48
2026-08-21	37.25	36.53	-11.51	1216861	Balance	20	34
2026-08-14	36.94	36.65	-14.04	1183330	Balance	-4	17
2026-08-07	37.72	36.78	-12.63	1514690	Balance	0	6
2026-07-31	35.74	36.86	-14.75	2839703	Downward Expansion	-32	18
2026-07-24	34.67	36.99	-16.77	2269845	Downward Expansion	-39	23
2026-07-17	34.61	37.18	-17.80	3076242	Downward Expansion	-27	14
2026-07-10	35.13	37.27	-18.27	5184894	Downward Expansion	-19	15
2026-07-03	34.87	37.45	-18.17	2028363	Downward Expansion	-31	22
2026-06-26	36.78	37.52	-12.25	3296709	Downward Expansion	-26	18
2026-06-19	36.60	37.56	-15.25	2086686	Downward Expansion	-39	26
2026-06-12	35.05	37.60	-18.70	2091960	Downward Expansion	-57	41
2026-06-05	33.45	37.72	-22.59	3118911	Downward Expansion	-66	61
2026-05-29	33.49	37.95	-25.11	1975925	Downward Expansion	-67	50
2026-05-22	34.52	38.20	-22.42	1223661	Downward Expansion	-59	43
2026-05-15	33.65	38.47	-24.39	1770028	Downward Expansion	-68	47
2026-05-08	35.52	38.74	-20.82	1704200	Downward Expansion	-55	40
2026-05-01	34.94	38.85	-21.02	2130650	Downward Expansion	-61	42
2026-04-24	35.21	39.06	-20.32	2106080	Downward Expansion	-61	44
2026-04-17	35.71	39.22	-19.37	1868039	Downward Expansion	-59	51
2026-04-10	36.48	39.40	-14.53	2045216	Downward Expansion	-62	70
2026-04-03	35.44	39.60	-14.55	2001586	Downward Expansion	-64	76
2026-03-27	34.34	39.84	-15.02	2867881	Downward Expansion	-76	81
2026-03-20	35.97	40.11	-13.68	2024346	Downward Expansion	-68	67
2026-03-13	35.87	40.37	-15.98	1798763	Rotation Up	-65	42
2026-03-06	36.84	40.56	-15.63	1635833	Rotation Up	-28	13
2026-02-27	40.80	40.67	-9.10	1409574	Rotation Up	27	34
2026-02-20	42.39	40.56	-6.56	1263960	Rotation Up	31	43
2026-02-13	43.02	40.43	-4.52	1822187	Rotation Up	29	41
2026-02-06	42.67	40.27	-6.88	1540396	Balance	27	32
2026-01-30	40.36	40.10	-12.46	1909164	Balance	11	14
2026-01-23	40.83	40.02	-11.54	1236362	Balance	13	14
2026-01-16	40.70	40.05	-12.49	1951301	Balance	4	11
2026-01-09	40.26	40.10	-14.13	2218006	Downward Expansion	-24	12
2026-01-02	39.56	40.16	-14.60	2426544	Downward Expansion	-32	15
2025-12-26	40.33	40.27	-14.12	2266854	Downward Expansion	-34	18
2025-12-19	37.23	40.35	-19.86	5056864	Downward Expansion	-62	40
2025-12-12	40.52	40.53	-13.18	2391961	Downward Expansion	-51	49
2025-12-05	37.18	40.69	-21.29	1556502	Downward Expansion	-68	69
2025-11-28	37.87	40.90	-20.10	1591323	Downward Expansion	-62	62
2025-11-21	37.79	41.03	-17.90	1535843	Balance	-63	53
2025-11-14	38.76	41.11	-17.98	1614313	Balance	-56	25
2025-11-07	40.24	41.10	-15.29	1512539	Balance	-23	12
2025-10-31	41.04	41.09	-15.61	1782191	Balance	1	2
2025-10-24	42.47	41.04	-12.48	1824134	Balance	10	5
2025-10-17	41.98	41.12	-12.18	2221044	Balance	-8	11
2025-10-10	38.64	41.13	-18.04	1571065	Balance	-51	32
2025-10-03	41.26	41.30	-15.00	1434419	Balance	-8	8
2025-09-26	40.16	41.45	-16.64	1450571	Balance	-12	8
2025-09-19	40.98	41.65	-15.47	2934214	Rotation Up	12	16
2025-09-12	42.63	41.80	-11.29	2306156	Rotation Up	19	28
2025-09-05	42.65	41.92	-10.07	1178555	Downward Expansion	19	30
2025-08-29	42.30	42.01	-10.67	1403770	Downward Expansion	-12	26
2025-08-22	43.67	42.10	-8.02	1595953	Downward Expansion	-5	15
2025-08-15	41.72	42.12	-12.00	2127274	Downward Expansion	-33	22
2025-08-08	40.24	42.20	-14.47	2009301	Downward Expansion	-60	43
2025-08-01	37.47	42.22	-18.65	2060588	Downward Expansion	-70	76
2025-07-25	38.33	42.33	-19.07	1536548	Downward Expansion	-66	76
2025-07-18	38.32	42.43	-18.19	2322437	Downward Expansion	-69	74
2025-07-11	37.60	42.63	-19.47	3226689	Downward Expansion	-77	73
2025-07-04	38.01	43.00	-19.02	3209594	Balance	-73	59
2025-06-27	41.49	43.30	-10.32	2664796	Balance	-40	20
2025-06-20	42.18	43.53	-5.75	1068680	Balance	-33	15
2025-06-13	42.13	43.74	-6.03	1437790	Balance	-30	13
2025-06-06	42.96	43.92	-4.52	1063070	Balance	-22	16
2025-05-30	42.84	44.19	-3.21	730615	Balance	-21	19
2025-05-23	42.50	44.23	-2.34	761194	Balance	-24	20
2025-05-16	45.35	44.31	1.59	1034562	Downward Expansion	-14	14
2025-05-09	43.35	44.26	2.34	1190592	Downward Expansion	-41	27
2025-05-02	41.86	44.27	-1.55	1032890	Downward Expansion	-57	55
2025-04-25	40.19	44.30	-2.68	1478882	Downward Expansion	-62	71
2025-04-18	38.46	44.35	-2.55	1226805	Downward Expansion	-75	75
2025-04-11	39.95	44.46	-0.16	2496362	Downward Expansion	-69	67
2025-04-04	39.63	44.50	4.80	2010577	Balance	-72	58
2025-03-28	44.76	44.48	7.90	2225612	Balance	-7	12
2025-03-21	42.21	44.36	0.55	2264924	Deceleration	-22	15
2025-03-14	43.92	44.31	5.34	1611768	Deceleration	33	16
2025-03-07	45.71	44.19	7.44	1669434	Deceleration	50	31
2025-02-28	46.22	44.00	5.66	2308819	Deceleration	45	34
2025-02-21	45.41	43.75	3.15	1339864	Deceleration	38	29
2025-02-14	46.09	43.59	3.25	1227687	Deceleration	43	31
2025-02-07	45.39	43.38	3.42	1418846	Deceleration	34	23
2025-01-31	45.14	43.16	3.04	1471183	Deceleration	23	12
2025-01-24	44.12	42.93	-0.06	1125689	Deceleration	-17	23
2025-01-17	44.24	42.73	2.13	1544587	Deceleration	-19	31
2025-01-10	40.90	42.53	-2.50	1519861	Deceleration	-27	36
2025-01-03	40.78	42.43	-4.45	1102881	Deceleration	1	19
2024-12-27	41.34	42.33	-3.46	1106190	Deceleration	11	15
2024-12-20	44.12	42.26	3.79	3668874	Upward Expansion	42	29
2024-12-13	48.79	42.06	12.82	1615312	Upward Expansion	67	52
2024-12-06	47.09	41.69	8.75	1332284	Upward Expansion	62	52
2024-11-29	48.21	41.41	12.76	1555433	Upward Expansion	66	72
2024-11-22	48.69	41.03	15.79	1455853	Upward Expansion	74	79
2024-11-15	47.51	40.61	15.49	1755160	Upward Expansion	70	78
2024-11-08	50.85	40.19	21.60	2147328	Upward Expansion	94	89
2024-11-01	44.22	39.66	11.40	1723145	Upward Expansion	66	67
2024-10-25	44.73	39.35	11.50	2131451	Upward Expansion	74	70
2024-10-18	43.99	39.05	8.84	3087599	Upward Expansion	72	68
2024-10-11	43.69	38.75	9.26	1393134	Upward Expansion	75	71
2024-10-04	42.58	38.44	8.16	1357947	Upward Expansion	70	61
2024-09-27	41.78	38.14	6.76	1325570	Upward Expansion	64	42
2024-09-20	41.84	37.84	7.84	2051154	Upward Expansion	66	41
2024-09-13	41.13	37.57	7.89	1309229	Upward Expansion	63	39
2024-09-06	39.09	37.31	7.00	1006266	Upward Expansion	55	36
2024-08-30	41.16	37.03	8.37	1150080	Upward Expansion	67	47
2024-08-23	40.63	36.71	7.70	688045	Upward Expansion	63	41
2024-08-16	40.13	36.41	8.25	994546	Upward Expansion	61	43
2024-08-09	40.23	36.07	13.28	1169555	Upward Expansion	65	45
2024-08-02	38.63	35.71	9.26	1726777	Upward Expansion	58	43
2024-07-26	40.69	35.37	13.02	1201066	Upward Expansion	75	53
2024-07-19	39.75	35.05	9.99	1521434	Upward Expansion	68	46
2024-07-12	38.73	34.82	5.41	1355287	Upward Expansion	61	43
2024-07-05	38.21	34.51	5.24	911657	Upward Expansion	48	38
2024-06-28	38.11	34.18	7.24	4139085	Upward Expansion	57	43
2024-06-21	38.43	33.85	8.35	1709607	Upward Expansion	66	57
2024-06-14	37.82	33.50	7.65	1247624	Upward Expansion	63	56
2024-06-07	37.80	33.18	9.59	1252008	Upward Expansion	66	61
2024-05-31	39.24	32.86	15.42	1078684	Upward Expansion	81	87
2024-05-24	38.17	32.48	12.15	962221	Upward Expansion	73	85
2024-05-17	37.64	32.16	10.90	1057956	Upward Expansion	70	83
2024-05-10	38.58	31.84	15.87	1162200	Upward Expansion	86	79
2024-05-03	36.76	31.41	12.98	1399231	Upward Expansion	76	60
2024-04-26	36.07	31.07	12.00	1319639	Upward Expansion	73	58
2024-04-19	34.95	30.75	11.84	1952245	Upward Expansion	63	55
2024-04-12	34.97	30.45	8.79	987572	Upward Expansion	65	68
2024-04-05	35.12	30.19	7.97	1463031	Upward Expansion	69	75
2024-03-29	35.59	29.90	8.74	1265536	Upward Expansion	78	76
2024-03-22	35.08	29.59	7.73	3003242	Upward Expansion	77	66
2024-03-15	34.23	29.29	7.48	1480821	Upward Expansion	72	67
2024-03-08	33.52	29.01	5.12	833843	Upward Expansion	69	73
2024-03-01	32.99	28.77	3.03	984381	Upward Expansion	66	70
2024-02-23	33.62	28.58	5.83	869417	Upward Expansion	78	77
2024-02-16	33.25	28.35	6.32	1953725	Upward Expansion	79	73
2024-02-09	30.78	28.15	-1.92	993604	Upward Expansion	58	52
2024-02-02	31.68	28.02	2.19	1122772	Upward Expansion	72	49
2024-01-26	31.64	27.84	3.40	1501827	Upward Expansion	74	42
2024-01-19	29.88	27.68	-1.32	663811	Upward Expansion	57	37
2024-01-12	29.24	27.54	-2.26	1011241	Upward Expansion	60	52
2024-01-05	28.65	27.47	-2.53	1100622	Upward Expansion	63	69
2023-12-29	31.03	27.43	3.75	858283	Upward Expansion	71	79
2023-12-22	32.74	27.30	9.77	2351219	Upward Expansion	90	81
2023-12-15	29.54	27.08	0.05	2548297	Upward Expansion	71	46
2023-12-08	28.42	26.94	-1.39	1629243	Upward Expansion	59	35
2023-12-01	28.10	26.79	-2.24	1781191	Upward Expansion	55	34
2023-11-24	27.91	26.64	-2.12	607456	Upward Expansion	56	44
2023-11-17	28.34	26.50	0.38	2402498	Upward Expansion	60	60
2023-11-10	27.98	26.38	1.34	1383765	Upward Expansion	56	59
2023-11-03	28.01	26.25	2.74	1969365	Upward Expansion	56	54
2023-10-27	28.37	26.11	9.95	2464884	Balance	60	48
2023-10-20	28.07	26.01	6.15	3175527	Balance	57	27

Price vs TrendBelow-1.7%

Trend directionFalling-3.6%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-9.3%

Fair Value directionMoving away-2.4%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-15.2%

Relative strength directionImproving+3.1%

Price momentumNegative-4.2%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.26×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-19 / ±100

-33.0 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

19 /100

+5.6 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

EPAC Directional State ↗ EPAC Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance52

Rotation Up16

Upward Expansion14

Deceleration63

Rotation Down60

Downward Expansion44

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 19%Rotation Up 7%Upward Expansion 39%Deceleration 8%Downward Expansion 27%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-09-25	2026-10-09	New	-2.0%
Rotation Up	2026-08-28	2026-09-18	New	-6.1%
Balance	2026-08-07	2026-08-21	New	-1.2%
Downward Expansion	2026-03-20	2026-07-31	Established	-0.6%
Rotation Up	2026-02-13	2026-03-13	Developing	-16.6%
Balance	2026-01-16	2026-02-06	New	+4.8%
Downward Expansion	2025-11-28	2026-01-09	Developing	+6.3%
Balance	2025-09-26	2025-11-21	Developing	-5.9%
Rotation Up	2025-09-12	2025-09-19	New	-3.9%
Downward Expansion	2025-07-11	2025-09-05	Developing	+13.4%
Balance	2025-05-23	2025-07-04	Developing	-10.6%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-11	2025-05-16	Developing	+13.5%
Balance	2025-03-28	2025-04-04	New	-11.5%
Deceleration	2024-12-27	2025-03-21	Established	+2.1%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing65

Stage 2 · Advancing13

Stage 3 · Distribution32

Stage 4 · Declining87

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 79/100
Current Relative Strength: -15.15
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -4.2%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -19.1%
Industrials regime cohort: 35th percentile49 in cohort

Test EPAC trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.81×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.26×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+50.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore EPAC Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 35.32falling

Slow Activity USD 35.72falling

Trend Reference USD 35.52-1.7% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 38.50-9.3% close margin

Structural low USD 32.35shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +4.9%

Annualized volatility +20.5%

From structural high -22.4%

From structural low +8.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	19	-1.1%-11.0% to +9.1%	+36.8%	+36.8%	-0.7%	+47.4%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	9	+0.4%-24.0% to +28.3%	+55.6%	+55.6%	-4.6%	+44.4%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	-10.3%-24.7% to +31.9%	+40.0%	+40.0%	-10.8%	+20.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+7.1%-29.2% to +56.3%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+1.5%	+25.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

EPAC Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map