Weekly structural research · MEX · Consumer Cyclical

MNSON Stage Analysis

MINISO Group Holding Limited

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close MXN 149.10Tenure ExtendedBenchmark ^MXX

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -80−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 93/100directional strength

Maturity 96/100lifecycle context

Confidence 81/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -57.5%MXN 351.06 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	149.10	232.17	-47.64	0	Downward Expansion	-80	93
2026-09-18	149.10	238.38	-47.48	48	Downward Expansion	-90	97
2026-09-11	150.00	244.60	-48.75	3031	Downward Expansion	-97	99
2026-09-04	165.00	250.52	-45.64	3264	Downward Expansion	-96	98
2026-08-28	175.00	255.97	-44.04	3130	Downward Expansion	-96	94
2026-08-21	199.50	261.09	-37.75	0	Downward Expansion	-86	72
2026-08-14	209.00	266.42	-34.76	0	Downward Expansion	-67	62
2026-08-07	212.22	271.67	-37.02	0	Downward Expansion	-61	56
2026-07-31	226.00	276.48	-33.71	1560	Downward Expansion	-52	56
2026-07-24	219.00	280.83	-35.90	0	Downward Expansion	-65	65
2026-07-17	225.00	285.41	-35.07	0	Downward Expansion	-67	67
2026-07-10	210.80	289.79	-39.62	20	Downward Expansion	-68	74
2026-07-03	209.52	294.64	-41.10	0	Downward Expansion	-75	71
2026-06-26	201.00	299.31	-44.20	0	Downward Expansion	-92	92
2026-06-19	214.00	304.62	-41.62	0	Downward Expansion	-86	75
2026-06-12	230.00	309.22	-38.09	0	Downward Expansion	-72	70
2026-06-05	227.11	314.43	-37.73	2980	Downward Expansion	-83	74
2026-05-29	228.00	319.73	-40.21	7824	Downward Expansion	-89	76
2026-05-22	237.00	325.35	-38.13	7586	Downward Expansion	-90	87
2026-05-15	252.90	331.00	-34.20	1575	Downward Expansion	-78	85
2026-05-08	252.86	336.55	-36.68	3149	Downward Expansion	-87	92
2026-05-01	261.00	342.10	-33.49	1944	Downward Expansion	-87	90
2026-04-24	254.00	346.74	-37.09	5569	Downward Expansion	-97	79
2026-04-17	281.62	353.58	-31.36	7153	Downward Expansion	-86	75
2026-04-10	289.61	359.51	-30.05	386	Downward Expansion	-84	74
2026-04-03	289.61	365.53	-30.17	9337	Downward Expansion	-92	77
2026-03-27	288.41	371.03	-28.06	5484	Downward Expansion	-97	79
2026-03-20	319.57	376.88	-17.91	0	Downward Expansion	-81	83
2026-03-13	319.57	382.36	-20.56	0	Downward Expansion	-88	96
2026-03-06	319.57	384.00	-23.29	440	Downward Expansion	-92	97
2026-02-27	335.55	385.49	-24.68	0	Downward Expansion	-66	88
2026-02-20	335.55	385.95	-25.35	48	Downward Expansion	-66	88
2026-02-13	327.56	386.41	-28.05	5	Downward Expansion	-83	94
2026-02-06	328.56	386.73	-28.02	0	Downward Expansion	-89	84
2026-01-30	328.56	387.02	-25.54	8	Downward Expansion	-89	72
2026-01-23	359.52	387.58	-20.23	13	Downward Expansion	-49	72
2026-01-16	366.51	386.84	-18.31	100	Downward Expansion	-51	71
2026-01-09	356.42	385.68	-20.31	0	Downward Expansion	-36	75
2026-01-02	356.42	384.98	-19.01	0	Rotation Down	-38	74
2025-12-26	356.42	384.40	-21.91	0	Rotation Down	-39	62
2025-12-19	356.42	383.52	-20.92	0	Rotation Down	-41	75
2025-12-12	356.42	383.22	-22.70	17474	Rotation Down	-34	76
2025-12-05	349.53	384.84	-23.42	6325	Rotation Down	-47	80
2025-11-28	360.32	386.49	-22.12	10866	Rotation Down	-43	77
2025-11-21	352.03	386.39	-22.29	11632	Deceleration	-53	72
2025-11-14	386.23	385.97	-15.61	0	Deceleration	-6	26
2025-11-07	386.23	383.57	-17.21	315	Deceleration	-5	21
2025-10-31	396.47	381.18	-14.51	169	Deceleration	21	26
2025-10-24	406.46	380.59	-10.37	8393	Deceleration	31	35
2025-10-17	419.44	380.01	-8.47	0	Deceleration	39	32
2025-10-10	419.44	380.09	-6.51	12681	Upward Expansion	46	40
2025-10-03	400.05	380.16	-12.97	6286	Upward Expansion	54	57
2025-09-26	459.39	379.76	-0.82	0	Upward Expansion	67	82
2025-09-19	459.39	377.49	1.19	10	Upward Expansion	69	89
2025-09-12	470.37	377.74	2.98	165	Rotation Up	83	94
2025-09-05	454.39	377.61	2.11	16	Rotation Up	54	84
2025-08-29	463.93	378.02	7.65	177	Rotation Up	68	89
2025-08-22	484.04	378.11	11.82	1184	Rotation Up	58	84
2025-08-15	368.72	377.53	-12.95	66	Downward Expansion	5	20
2025-08-08	364.28	381.93	-13.40	96	Downward Expansion	-22	18
2025-08-01	349.31	386.48	-15.10	0	Downward Expansion	-43	33
2025-07-25	349.31	391.79	-15.63	300	Downward Expansion	-45	35
2025-07-18	337.33	396.93	-17.00	85	Downward Expansion	-60	44
2025-07-11	337.33	401.71	-17.42	899	Downward Expansion	-62	50
2025-07-04	345.32	406.78	-17.48	350	Downward Expansion	-60	49
2025-06-27	337.13	411.22	-18.72	5	Downward Expansion	-64	70
2025-06-20	331.75	413.38	-18.59	6064	Downward Expansion	-67	75
2025-06-13	335.59	413.86	-19.60	12014	Downward Expansion	-69	71
2025-06-06	338.93	414.64	-19.97	14473	Downward Expansion	-68	49
2025-05-30	330.13	416.30	-22.02	20047	Downward Expansion	-61	36
2025-05-23	347.31	418.47	-19.00	549	Downward Expansion	-50	30
2025-05-16	404.90	418.85	-5.24	164	Downward Expansion	-41	27
2025-05-09	399.21	416.00	-4.23	420	Downward Expansion	-62	55
2025-05-02	357.29	415.59	-13.16	283	Downward Expansion	-67	85
2025-04-25	339.33	416.65	-18.98	51	Rotation Down	-67	88
2025-04-18	314.38	416.81	-19.72	0	Rotation Down	-64	87
2025-04-11	314.38	416.97	-17.42	166	Rotation Down	-68	84
2025-04-04	378.93	416.69	-0.44	38	Rotation Down	-48	62
2025-03-28	388.90	415.35	-0.82	80	Deceleration	-45	76
2025-03-21	421.80	413.41	8.90	0	Deceleration	-9	46
2025-03-14	421.80	409.65	10.07	62	Rotation Down	-8	44
2025-03-07	387.90	405.22	1.26	692	Rotation Down	-34	53
2025-02-28	391.38	402.18	3.60	14	Rotation Down	-7	28
2025-02-21	466.68	399.07	20.85	0	Deceleration	41	35
2025-02-14	466.68	394.24	21.25	0	Deceleration	43	37
2025-02-07	466.68	389.01	25.37	0	Upward Expansion	49	48
2025-01-31	466.68	384.35	30.64	0	Upward Expansion	54	57
2025-01-24	466.68	380.01	31.76	25	Upward Expansion	66	70
2025-01-17	500.67	376.09	46.57	0	Upward Expansion	68	88
2025-01-10	500.67	372.02	49.01	21	Upward Expansion	70	88
2025-01-03	508.56	367.95	54.92	19	Upward Expansion	78	92
2024-12-27	503.55	363.62	54.11	19	Upward Expansion	79	92
2024-12-20	480.64	359.39	48.09	6	Upward Expansion	75	89
2024-12-13	489.61	357.04	46.56	43	Upward Expansion	85	86
2024-12-06	478.54	354.40	45.65	59	Rotation Up	84	68
2024-11-29	401.86	352.06	26.81	180	Rotation Up	40	28
2024-11-22	346.02	352.04	7.87	294	Rotation Up	22	21
2024-11-15	358.98	352.33	11.20	43	Rotation Up	27	27
2024-11-08	388.90	351.97	16.69	78	Rotation Up	28	26
2024-11-01	395.15	350.96	20.90	326	Rotation Up	36	35
2024-10-25	358.80	349.75	6.69	156	Rotation Up	19	26
2024-10-18	319.50	349.74	-8.11	387	Rotation Up	5	24
2024-10-11	386.90	349.09	11.53	27	Rotation Up	40	44
2024-10-04	388.90	346.19	10.91	434	Downward Expansion	36	30
2024-09-27	344.26	343.84	-2.66	34717	Downward Expansion	-22	19
2024-09-20	319.09	342.98	-9.42	46	Downward Expansion	-38	28
2024-09-13	305.91	341.97	-13.36	21	Downward Expansion	-53	33
2024-09-06	338.75	341.33	-3.28	47	Rotation Down	-46	37
2024-08-30	330.78	339.76	-9.40	438	Rotation Down	-37	50
2024-08-23	308.86	338.46	-16.54	22734	Rotation Down	-41	69
2024-08-16	288.93	339.78	-23.09	113	Rotation Down	-59	85
2024-08-09	296.90	342.43	-19.64	125	Rotation Down	-49	82
2024-08-02	297.90	344.55	-18.29	29	Rotation Down	-56	84
2024-07-26	321.81	346.64	-12.83	15751	Rotation Down	-34	73
2024-07-19	309.86	347.13	-17.49	23068	Rotation Down	-54	74
2024-07-12	326.79	348.02	-15.01	23	Rotation Down	-47	53
2024-07-05	336.55	347.91	-8.02	10	Rotation Down	-10	33
2024-06-28	348.98	350.13	-4.45	8	Deceleration	13	34
2024-06-21	378.60	352.93	3.43	0	Deceleration	41	35
2024-06-14	378.60	355.68	5.01	61	Rotation Up	49	46
2024-06-07	378.70	358.42	4.07	40	Rotation Up	37	52
2024-05-31	376.61	361.16	0.02	204	Rotation Up	41	78
2024-05-24	410.21	365.27	9.05	0	Rotation Up	49	82
2024-05-17	410.21	368.25	5.48	22	Rotation Up	49	81
2024-05-10	408.49	369.61	5.25	26	Rotation Up	55	81
2024-05-03	401.32	371.92	5.09	804	Rotation Up	39	62
2024-04-26	354.69	373.91	-7.82	26	Rotation Up	4	33
2024-04-19	348.12	377.45	-6.14	6	Downward Expansion	-1	32
2024-04-12	358.68	379.75	-4.32	0	Downward Expansion	4	28
2024-04-05	358.68	383.95	-6.60	10	Downward Expansion	-22	27
2024-03-29	358.68	387.59	-5.25	11	Downward Expansion	-36	35
2024-03-22	299.85	388.41	-19.56	0	Downward Expansion	-62	59
2024-03-15	299.85	391.19	-19.19	20	Downward Expansion	-74	66
2024-03-08	318.57	392.37	-12.32	0	Downward Expansion	-66	65
2024-03-01	318.57	393.02	-13.41	50	Downward Expansion	-68	83
2024-02-23	288.70	393.68	-23.13	22	Downward Expansion	-74	90
2024-02-16	286.71	395.79	-24.46	30	Downward Expansion	-84	94
2024-02-09	291.69	396.68	-23.57	0	Downward Expansion	-89	95
2024-02-02	291.69	397.14	-24.88	6	Rotation Down	-92	73
2024-01-26	348.43	396.46	-8.15	95	Rotation Down	-47	55
2024-01-19	368.34	393.88	-0.15	22	Rotation Down	-37	55
2024-01-12	360.64	391.52	-2.01	0	Rotation Down	-31	75
2024-01-05	360.64	389.41	-2.51	128	Rotation Down	-31	76
2023-12-29	336.49	386.18	-10.34	0	Rotation Down	-44	80
2023-12-22	336.49	383.75	-9.81	91	Rotation Down	-52	78
2023-12-15	323.54	382.64	-12.63	32	Rotation Down	-33	46
2023-12-08	403.19	381.97	14.71	27	Deceleration	12	26
2023-12-01	433.05	377.68	25.41	20	Upward Expansion	41	29
2023-11-24	460.93	373.19	37.47	0	Upward Expansion	50	50
2023-11-17	460.93	367.77	40.78	0	Upward Expansion	63	60
2023-11-10	460.93	362.52	47.55	50	Upward Expansion	65	63
2023-11-03	499.75	357.07	63.31	0	Upward Expansion	80	71
2023-10-27	499.75	350.33	75.53	69	Upward Expansion	84	72
2023-10-20	450.97	343.58	65.33	108	Upward Expansion	66	66
2023-10-13	477.85	339.16	75.57	20	Upward Expansion	81	72
2023-10-06	460.93	333.84	72.84	0	Upward Expansion	73	72

Price vs TrendBelow-35.8%

Trend directionFalling-18.7%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-57.5%

Fair Value directionMoving away-12.4%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-47.6%

Relative strength directionWeakening-3.4%

Price momentumNegative-48.3%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.17×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-80 / ±100

+15.4 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

93 /100

-0.5 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

MNSON Directional State ↗ MNSON Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance4

Rotation Up8

Upward Expansion22

Deceleration37

Rotation Down87

Downward Expansion100

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Rotation Up 14%Upward Expansion 14%Deceleration 8%Rotation Down 20%Downward Expansion 44%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-01-09	2026-09-25	Extended	-58.2%
Rotation Down	2025-11-28	2026-01-02	Developing	-1.1%
Deceleration	2025-10-17	2025-11-21	Developing	-16.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-19	2025-10-10	New	-8.7%
Rotation Up	2025-08-22	2025-09-12	New	-2.8%
Downward Expansion	2025-05-02	2025-08-15	Established	+3.2%
Rotation Down	2025-04-04	2025-04-25	New	-10.4%
Deceleration	2025-03-21	2025-03-28	New	-7.8%
Rotation Down	2025-02-28	2025-03-14	New	+7.8%
Deceleration	2025-02-14	2025-02-21	New	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2024-12-13	2025-02-07	Developing	-4.7%
Rotation Up	2024-10-11	2024-12-06	Developing	+23.7%
Downward Expansion	2024-09-13	2024-10-04	New	+27.1%
Rotation Down	2024-07-05	2024-09-06	Developing	+0.7%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing57

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution13

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^MXX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 100/100
Current Relative Strength: -47.64
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -48.3%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -45.8%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 54th percentile48 in cohort

Test MNSON trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.00×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.17×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore MNSON Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity MXN 153.13falling

Slow Activity MXN 206.31falling

Trend Reference MXN 232.17-35.8% close margin

Current Fair Value MXN 351.06-57.5% close margin

Structural low MXN 149.10shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +6.2%

Annualized volatility +33.3%

From structural high -67.5%

From structural low +0.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^MXX	Regime survived	Read
Near term	20	-0.3%-25.3% to +76.9%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+2.6%	+80.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	+13.5%-27.2% to +113.0%	+57.1%	+42.9%	+3.2%	+42.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+11.0%-40.9% to +196.3%	+80.0%	+20.0%	+9.2%	+20.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+60.0%-27.0% to +351.2%	+66.7%	+33.3%	+67.9%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

MNSON Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

RMI Reversal Map