Weekly structural research · ASX · Financial Services

TIP Stage Analysis

Teaminvest Private Group Limited

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close AUD 1.35Tenure NewBenchmark ^AXJO

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Early expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 54−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 35/100directional strength

Maturity 40/100lifecycle context

Confidence 48/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance +50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -14.6%AUD 1.58 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	1.35	1.26	-3.25	22654	Upward Expansion	54	35
2026-10-02	1.36	1.26	-2.73	16341	Upward Expansion	58	39
2026-09-25	1.39	1.26	-0.94	24775	Rotation Up	62	42
2026-09-18	1.29	1.26	-9.57	214275	Rotation Up	45	30
2026-09-11	1.34	1.27	-6.16	86095	Rotation Up	35	42
2026-09-04	1.38	1.27	-6.74	26000	Rotation Up	50	65
2026-08-28	1.29	1.28	-14.70	0	Rotation Up	40	72
2026-08-21	1.38	1.29	-8.75	0	Rotation Up	42	79
2026-08-14	1.40	1.30	-8.74	0	Rotation Up	54	66
2026-08-07	1.40	1.30	-10.77	0	Rotation Up	36	49
2026-07-31	1.24	1.31	-18.60	10003	Downward Expansion	-1	28
2026-07-24	1.27	1.32	-15.23	0	Downward Expansion	-4	32
2026-07-17	1.21	1.33	-19.85	0	Downward Expansion	-42	35
2026-07-10	1.20	1.34	-21.07	7028	Downward Expansion	-53	57
2026-07-03	1.21	1.36	-21.28	0	Downward Expansion	-65	65
2026-06-26	1.14	1.38	-25.91	95146	Downward Expansion	-67	68
2026-06-19	1.07	1.39	-31.13	42098	Downward Expansion	-94	91
2026-06-12	1.13	1.42	-27.63	5884	Downward Expansion	-87	74
2026-06-05	1.15	1.44	-25.31	4800	Downward Expansion	-83	75
2026-05-29	1.20	1.46	-23.85	0	Downward Expansion	-68	85
2026-05-22	1.20	1.47	-23.78	97351	Downward Expansion	-70	87
2026-05-15	1.19	1.50	-24.41	28132	Downward Expansion	-74	90
2026-05-08	1.20	1.51	-25.39	54000	Downward Expansion	-72	71
2026-05-01	1.20	1.54	-25.92	46997	Downward Expansion	-77	71
2026-04-24	1.20	1.56	-26.99	127513	Downward Expansion	-83	73
2026-04-17	1.22	1.58	-27.66	35105	Downward Expansion	-86	74
2026-04-10	1.26	1.60	-26.08	50792	Downward Expansion	-82	87
2026-04-03	1.31	1.61	-20.46	39017	Downward Expansion	-72	88
2026-03-27	1.33	1.63	-19.34	7784	Downward Expansion	-70	89
2026-03-20	1.29	1.64	-21.50	51177	Downward Expansion	-88	95
2026-03-13	1.30	1.66	-23.25	85235	Downward Expansion	-92	96
2026-03-06	1.41	1.68	-19.73	21404	Downward Expansion	-82	93
2026-02-27	1.44	1.69	-21.60	34155	Downward Expansion	-79	81
2026-02-20	1.44	1.70	-21.81	77228	Downward Expansion	-89	72
2026-02-13	1.46	1.71	-19.70	264320	Downward Expansion	-88	63
2026-02-06	1.65	1.71	-7.83	5344	Downward Expansion	-51	45
2026-01-30	1.57	1.71	-14.25	6388	Downward Expansion	-74	66
2026-01-23	1.60	1.72	-12.77	12752	Downward Expansion	-67	72
2026-01-16	1.58	1.72	-14.73	21221	Downward Expansion	-72	86
2026-01-09	1.59	1.72	-12.87	31440	Rotation Down	-73	86
2026-01-02	1.58	1.72	-13.97	79191	Rotation Down	-57	82
2025-12-26	1.59	1.72	-14.29	121780	Rotation Down	-62	82
2025-12-19	1.63	1.73	-11.19	215046	Rotation Down	-56	75
2025-12-12	1.67	1.73	-10.31	14844	Rotation Down	-36	68
2025-12-05	1.67	1.73	-10.05	69028	Rotation Down	-40	68
2025-11-28	1.69	1.74	-9.12	129545	Rotation Down	-36	60
2025-11-21	1.69	1.74	-7.28	93328	Balance	-37	44
2025-11-14	1.73	1.74	-8.07	135482	Balance	10	15
2025-11-07	1.76	1.74	-8.05	74058	Upward Expansion	33	19
2025-10-31	1.78	1.74	-8.48	64169	Upward Expansion	39	23
2025-10-24	1.80	1.75	-9.38	29615	Upward Expansion	53	38
2025-10-17	1.78	1.75	-10.08	55577	Upward Expansion	53	44
2025-10-10	1.83	1.75	-6.99	30905	Upward Expansion	61	54
2025-10-03	1.83	1.75	-6.97	6510	Balance	34	30
2025-09-26	1.78	1.76	-7.04	21626	Balance	23	19
2025-09-19	1.82	1.77	-4.66	14820	Balance	21	19
2025-09-12	1.77	1.78	-7.75	47679	Balance	14	21
2025-09-05	1.79	1.79	-6.39	5803	Balance	17	29
2025-08-29	1.80	1.79	-6.51	48587	Balance	-1	20
2025-08-22	1.77	1.80	-7.56	23128	Balance	-7	19
2025-08-15	1.87	1.81	-1.71	156148	Balance	6	13
2025-08-08	1.76	1.81	-5.52	66038	Downward Expansion	-29	15
2025-08-01	1.69	1.82	-7.33	6968	Downward Expansion	-41	25
2025-07-25	1.62	1.83	-10.55	61357	Downward Expansion	-60	37
2025-07-18	1.68	1.85	-8.25	18685	Downward Expansion	-55	37
2025-07-11	1.68	1.86	-6.03	33025	Downward Expansion	-59	44
2025-07-04	1.62	1.87	-9.21	134515	Downward Expansion	-64	51
2025-06-27	1.62	1.88	-7.72	390155	Downward Expansion	-67	62
2025-06-20	1.64	1.89	-6.51	25949	Downward Expansion	-69	68
2025-06-13	1.62	1.90	-7.81	76550	Downward Expansion	-77	63
2025-06-06	1.67	1.92	-4.39	34651	Downward Expansion	-71	48
2025-05-30	1.76	1.93	2.31	28651	Downward Expansion	-47	34
2025-05-23	1.72	1.94	1.20	32264	Downward Expansion	-68	43
2025-05-16	1.82	1.93	7.71	11702	Downward Expansion	-59	46
2025-05-09	1.82	1.92	9.72	5023	Rotation Down	-63	55
2025-05-02	1.78	1.91	7.78	45308	Rotation Down	-39	63
2025-04-25	1.69	1.89	6.29	72557	Rotation Down	-59	81
2025-04-18	1.77	1.88	13.61	5805	Rotation Down	-48	76
2025-04-11	1.77	1.86	16.63	25500	Deceleration	-44	71
2025-04-04	1.83	1.84	20.66	109	Deceleration	-21	45
2025-03-28	1.82	1.82	15.81	28305	Deceleration	-22	37
2025-03-21	1.87	1.80	20.15	1858	Deceleration	-5	17
2025-03-14	1.94	1.78	28.02	1	Upward Expansion	46	38
2025-03-07	2.06	1.75	33.66	1000	Upward Expansion	72	62
2025-02-28	2.01	1.72	27.65	9699	Upward Expansion	65	62
2025-02-21	2.06	1.70	29.33	38950	Upward Expansion	73	84
2025-02-14	2.04	1.67	24.44	33453	Upward Expansion	66	79
2025-02-07	2.04	1.64	25.34	5427	Upward Expansion	69	80
2025-01-31	2.04	1.62	25.30	663	Upward Expansion	68	71
2025-01-24	2.01	1.59	25.57	13417	Upward Expansion	60	51
2025-01-17	2.00	1.56	26.58	32327	Upward Expansion	60	53
2025-01-10	2.00	1.54	26.94	34520	Upward Expansion	63	57
2025-01-03	2.05	1.51	30.88	7282	Upward Expansion	70	63
2024-12-27	1.98	1.49	26.37	26022	Upward Expansion	64	62
2024-12-20	2.01	1.46	31.30	14794	Upward Expansion	69	65
2024-12-13	2.00	1.43	27.05	30767	Upward Expansion	69	67
2024-12-06	2.00	1.41	24.98	31445	Upward Expansion	70	68
2024-11-29	1.95	1.38	21.45	22781	Upward Expansion	68	73
2024-11-22	2.00	1.36	24.54	27261	Upward Expansion	71	90
2024-11-15	2.05	1.35	28.55	79360	Upward Expansion	89	96
2024-11-08	1.96	1.32	22.61	27282	Upward Expansion	93	98
2024-11-01	2.14	1.31	36.83	154344	Rotation Up	100	100
2024-10-25	1.58	1.29	0.01	73322	Rotation Up	72	90
2024-10-18	1.42	1.28	-11.60	68998	Rotation Up	68	85
2024-10-11	1.35	1.29	-15.86	33072	Rotation Up	52	60
2024-10-04	1.28	1.29	-20.72	123806	Downward Expansion	9	25
2024-09-27	1.27	1.30	-22.50	42291	Downward Expansion	-5	11
2024-09-20	1.25	1.31	-24.02	131451	Downward Expansion	-37	26
2024-09-13	1.22	1.33	-25.44	24492	Downward Expansion	-58	44
2024-09-06	1.20	1.34	-26.31	106749	Downward Expansion	-64	55
2024-08-30	1.20	1.36	-27.61	134787	Downward Expansion	-66	57
2024-08-23	1.21	1.37	-26.96	144413	Downward Expansion	-60	54
2024-08-16	1.20	1.39	-27.54	216029	Downward Expansion	-67	55
2024-08-09	1.21	1.41	-25.70	119970	Downward Expansion	-65	55
2024-08-02	1.23	1.42	-26.72	316455	Downward Expansion	-62	58
2024-07-26	1.22	1.44	-27.44	86687	Downward Expansion	-65	61
2024-07-19	1.23	1.46	-27.66	50634	Downward Expansion	-52	57
2024-07-12	1.21	1.48	-28.74	88745	Downward Expansion	-58	58
2024-07-05	1.23	1.51	-26.70	107557	Downward Expansion	-53	57
2024-06-28	1.23	1.53	-26.52	94388	Downward Expansion	-63	64
2024-06-21	1.25	1.55	-25.94	1000	Downward Expansion	-66	67
2024-06-14	1.23	1.58	-26.94	17606	Downward Expansion	-67	74
2024-06-07	1.22	1.60	-29.29	257325	Downward Expansion	-69	87
2024-05-31	1.15	1.62	-32.91	345790	Downward Expansion	-96	98
2024-05-24	1.20	1.64	-30.74	380877	Downward Expansion	-96	98
2024-05-17	1.30	1.66	-26.38	111266	Downward Expansion	-86	94
2024-05-10	1.32	1.68	-25.61	298712	Downward Expansion	-91	93
2024-05-03	1.35	1.69	-23.18	107704	Downward Expansion	-91	89
2024-04-26	1.43	1.70	-18.93	106122	Downward Expansion	-78	77
2024-04-19	1.41	1.71	-20.49	193787	Downward Expansion	-90	85
2024-04-12	1.48	1.72	-19.16	226660	Downward Expansion	-75	88
2024-04-05	1.49	1.73	-18.98	41878	Downward Expansion	-76	90
2024-03-29	1.49	1.73	-20.79	2600	Downward Expansion	-84	93
2024-03-22	1.49	1.74	-20.09	53398	Downward Expansion	-90	95
2024-03-15	1.57	1.74	-15.29	136272	Downward Expansion	-76	91
2024-03-08	1.57	1.75	-17.67	218803	Rotation Down	-81	91
2024-03-01	1.60	1.74	-15.71	69201	Rotation Down	-51	80
2024-02-23	1.58	1.74	-16.55	17042	Rotation Down	-60	75
2024-02-16	1.67	1.74	-12.28	4187	Rotation Down	-33	60
2024-02-09	1.67	1.73	-12.38	12576	Rotation Down	-34	58
2024-02-02	1.68	1.73	-12.76	7191	Deceleration	-36	52
2024-01-26	1.72	1.72	-9.25	16814	Deceleration	-9	30
2024-01-19	1.72	1.71	-8.23	0	Deceleration	-8	24
2024-01-12	1.72	1.71	-9.51	18698	Deceleration	9	19
2024-01-05	1.84	1.72	-3.27	0	Deceleration	38	24
2023-12-29	1.84	1.71	-4.94	1000	Upward Expansion	42	28
2023-12-22	1.87	1.71	-2.55	8050	Upward Expansion	57	43
2023-12-15	1.90	1.71	-0.44	12815	Upward Expansion	62	61
2023-12-08	1.86	1.72	0.54	17110	Upward Expansion	64	76
2023-12-01	1.96	1.72	7.13	7809	Rotation Up	70	82
2023-11-24	2.05	1.72	12.66	39187	Rotation Up	64	80
2023-11-17	1.91	1.72	4.59	40526	Rotation Up	53	65
2023-11-10	1.79	1.73	-1.08	0	Rotation Up	32	49
2023-11-03	1.79	1.73	-1.49	14200	Rotation Up	25	48
2023-10-27	1.84	1.74	2.92	39187	Balance	36	42
2023-10-20	1.79	1.75	-1.23	8181	Balance	12	33

Price vs TrendAbove+7.2%

Trend directionFalling-3.8%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-14.6%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+10.6%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-3.3%

Relative strength directionImproving+17.8%

Price momentumPositive+7.1%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.15×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

54 / ±100

+18.7 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

35 /100

-7.7 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

TIP Directional State ↗ TIP Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance42

Rotation Up41

Upward Expansion76

Deceleration71

Rotation Down26

Downward Expansion5

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 8%Rotation Up 11%Upward Expansion 19%Deceleration 6%Rotation Down 10%Downward Expansion 46%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-10-02	2026-10-09	New	-0.7%
Rotation Up	2026-08-07	2026-09-25	Developing	-0.4%
Downward Expansion	2026-01-16	2026-07-31	Extended	-21.7%
Rotation Down	2025-11-28	2026-01-09	Developing	-5.8%
Balance	2025-11-14	2025-11-21	New	-2.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-10	2025-11-07	Developing	-3.8%
Balance	2025-08-15	2025-10-03	Developing	-1.9%
Downward Expansion	2025-05-16	2025-08-08	Established	-3.2%
Rotation Down	2025-04-18	2025-05-09	New	+2.8%
Deceleration	2025-03-21	2025-04-11	New	-5.3%
Upward Expansion	2024-11-08	2025-03-14	Established	-0.8%
Rotation Up	2024-10-11	2024-11-01	New	+58.3%
Downward Expansion	2024-03-15	2024-10-04	Extended	-18.7%
Rotation Down	2024-02-09	2024-03-08	Developing	-6.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing62

Stage 2 · Advancing40

Stage 3 · Distribution20

Stage 4 · Declining44

Legacy result: Stage 1 · Stage 1B · Basing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AXJO

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 22/100
Current Relative Strength: -3.25
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +7.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +9.9%
Financial Services regime cohort: 16th percentile25 in cohort

Test TIP trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.82×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.15×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+50.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore TIP Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity AUD 1.35rising

Slow Activity AUD 1.28rising

Trend Reference AUD 1.26+7.2% close margin

Current Fair Value AUD 1.58-14.6% close margin

Structural low AUD 1.07shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +5.5%

Annualized volatility +31.8%

From structural high -26.3%

From structural low +26.2%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Regime survived	Read
Near term	9	-1.2%-9.8% to +2.4%	+22.2%	+22.2%	-3.5%	+55.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	5	-10.8%-15.6% to +4.0%	+20.0%	+20.0%	-10.3%	+20.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	-24.3%-34.3% to -7.3%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-26.3%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	-16.3%-32.0% to +7.3%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-18.8%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

TIP Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map