Weekly structural research · SAO · Energy

VLOE34 Stage Analysis

Valero Energy Corporation

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close BRL 128.00Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^BVSP

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Established expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction 75−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 85/100directional strength

Maturity 56/100lifecycle context

Confidence 80/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance +100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +128.6%BRL 55.99 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	128.00	90.19	57.16	1824	Upward Expansion	75	85
2026-09-18	131.95	88.10	62.61	1360	Upward Expansion	92	95
2026-09-11	125.28	85.84	55.17	2421	Upward Expansion	90	96
2026-09-04	118.87	83.84	50.90	2252	Upward Expansion	88	95
2026-08-28	114.51	82.07	55.16	1006	Upward Expansion	87	94
2026-08-21	112.20	80.24	58.32	8356	Upward Expansion	92	96
2026-08-14	110.98	78.55	62.80	2440	Upward Expansion	96	94
2026-08-07	95.26	76.92	37.40	808	Upward Expansion	70	87
2026-07-31	97.86	75.79	38.07	1416	Upward Expansion	85	93
2026-07-24	95.99	74.37	39.73	1128	Upward Expansion	86	93
2026-07-17	91.48	73.01	34.65	768	Upward Expansion	84	92
2026-07-10	88.23	71.81	27.84	992	Upward Expansion	80	78
2026-07-03	88.40	70.74	31.47	1072	Upward Expansion	83	75
2026-06-26	83.69	69.71	26.32	320	Upward Expansion	75	69
2026-06-19	75.51	68.89	18.06	544	Upward Expansion	61	59
2026-06-12	83.02	68.34	28.52	184	Upward Expansion	77	77
2026-06-05	83.22	67.54	31.42	128	Upward Expansion	79	56
2026-05-29	75.97	66.70	17.64	96	Upward Expansion	56	37
2026-05-22	76.62	65.97	17.68	528	Deceleration	60	40
2026-05-15	74.80	65.21	14.86	1832	Deceleration	44	31
2026-05-08	73.72	64.51	9.50	344	Deceleration	39	24
2026-05-01	76.80	63.85	12.67	96	Deceleration	50	30
2026-04-24	70.84	63.09	2.67	224	Upward Expansion	42	28
2026-04-17	68.81	62.65	-2.42	4800	Upward Expansion	51	46
2026-04-10	72.76	62.09	2.65	368	Upward Expansion	66	66
2026-04-03	78.26	61.41	16.23	4456	Upward Expansion	68	83
2026-03-27	81.89	60.53	26.80	456	Upward Expansion	88	95
2026-03-20	79.64	59.47	27.67	4688	Upward Expansion	92	96
2026-03-13	77.03	58.39	23.16	408	Upward Expansion	95	93
2026-03-06	74.18	57.31	18.06	3648	Upward Expansion	95	90
2026-02-27	65.32	56.47	-0.94	184	Upward Expansion	72	74
2026-02-20	64.02	55.92	-3.98	136	Upward Expansion	67	63
2026-02-13	65.28	55.41	-0.14	152	Upward Expansion	81	81
2026-02-06	65.75	54.86	2.42	16424	Upward Expansion	88	89
2026-01-30	59.78	54.41	-6.23	144	Upward Expansion	63	60
2026-01-23	61.29	53.95	-2.81	4048	Upward Expansion	75	68
2026-01-16	62.17	53.41	6.57	7496	Deceleration	86	69
2026-01-09	61.29	52.93	5.78	15320	Deceleration	73	46
2026-01-02	55.32	52.43	-2.88	0	Deceleration	33	43
2025-12-26	55.32	52.09	-3.33	0	Deceleration	41	34
2025-12-19	55.32	51.75	-2.00	24	Upward Expansion	49	45
2025-12-12	56.09	51.39	-2.21	112	Upward Expansion	65	64
2025-12-05	57.72	51.08	2.64	296	Upward Expansion	67	88
2025-11-28	59.05	50.56	3.82	0	Upward Expansion	77	92
2025-11-21	59.05	49.92	6.57	0	Upward Expansion	84	94
2025-11-14	58.78	49.28	4.06	408	Upward Expansion	87	88
2025-11-07	58.27	48.60	5.58	88	Upward Expansion	86	69
2025-10-31	53.90	47.98	0.67	0	Upward Expansion	60	57
2025-10-24	53.90	47.43	3.01	0	Upward Expansion	62	62
2025-10-17	53.90	47.23	5.08	0	Upward Expansion	65	84
2025-10-10	53.90	46.98	7.25	0	Upward Expansion	66	86
2025-10-03	53.90	46.66	4.70	168	Upward Expansion	67	86
2025-09-26	57.51	46.36	10.98	280	Upward Expansion	94	97
2025-09-19	52.22	46.01	0.81	0	Upward Expansion	72	86
2025-09-12	52.22	45.83	3.42	32	Upward Expansion	78	80
2025-09-05	51.91	45.65	2.71	120	Deceleration	74	45
2025-08-29	49.99	45.54	-0.08	48	Deceleration	55	29
2025-08-22	47.31	45.50	-3.01	120	Deceleration	35	21
2025-08-15	44.65	45.62	-7.41	2832	Upward Expansion	27	22
2025-08-08	48.92	45.80	1.56	0	Upward Expansion	60	56
2025-08-01	48.92	45.69	4.09	32	Rotation Up	62	73
2025-07-25	48.61	45.60	2.36	136	Rotation Up	36	66
2025-07-18	49.00	45.47	3.00	56	Rotation Up	41	66
2025-07-11	51.96	45.38	6.88	2184	Rotation Up	56	72
2025-07-04	46.04	45.22	-8.80	64	Rotation Up	25	49
2025-06-27	45.27	45.28	-7.66	320	Rotation Up	22	37
2025-06-20	47.59	45.42	-3.52	136	Rotation Up	38	45
2025-06-13	46.43	45.50	-6.22	456	Rotation Up	28	31
2025-06-06	45.17	45.56	-8.35	136	Downward Expansion	-10	27
2025-05-30	45.14	45.62	-9.36	8	Downward Expansion	-12	25
2025-05-23	44.51	45.64	-11.47	560	Downward Expansion	-27	25
2025-05-16	46.58	45.69	-8.60	192	Downward Expansion	-22	18
2025-05-09	42.24	45.67	-15.75	1136	Downward Expansion	-62	64
2025-05-02	39.89	45.87	-19.89	56	Downward Expansion	-63	84
2025-04-25	39.85	46.02	-20.06	248	Downward Expansion	-64	85
2025-04-18	38.45	46.18	-20.31	240	Downward Expansion	-80	89
2025-04-11	39.53	46.41	-17.35	80	Downward Expansion	-79	78
2025-04-04	37.50	46.61	-21.79	552	Rotation Down	-88	76
2025-03-28	47.67	46.86	-4.60	936	Rotation Down	-17	25
2025-03-21	46.62	46.83	-7.15	8	Rotation Down	-30	46
2025-03-14	44.18	46.85	-9.87	120	Balance	-39	52
2025-03-07	45.05	47.01	-5.35	856	Balance	-33	32
2025-02-28	46.75	47.18	0.07	112	Balance	14	16
2025-02-21	46.84	47.34	-2.85	0	Balance	21	12
2025-02-14	46.84	47.54	-3.46	32	Rotation Up	13	36
2025-02-07	48.79	47.62	3.65	160	Rotation Up	28	41
2025-01-31	48.70	47.60	2.60	40	Rotation Up	26	44
2025-01-24	50.94	47.64	10.94	24	Rotation Up	46	44
2025-01-17	50.12	47.65	9.89	72	Rotation Up	-6	8
2025-01-10	45.58	47.61	3.50	88	Downward Expansion	-60	51
2025-01-03	46.16	47.70	5.65	248	Balance	-42	36
2024-12-27	44.67	47.78	1.29	24	Balance	-59	40
2024-12-20	46.41	47.91	4.15	24	Rotation Up	-32	14
2024-12-13	47.11	48.01	4.10	176	Rotation Up	15	29
2024-12-06	47.78	48.10	4.96	168	Rotation Up	21	40
2024-11-29	49.63	48.10	9.82	32	Balance	32	39
2024-11-22	49.83	48.05	7.94	760	Balance	15	24
2024-11-15	48.36	48.10	6.39	264	Downward Expansion	-15	13
2024-11-08	46.85	48.26	3.55	344	Downward Expansion	-39	25
2024-11-01	45.82	48.47	1.45	360	Downward Expansion	-40	24
2024-10-25	45.95	48.64	0.61	24	Downward Expansion	-42	28
2024-10-18	45.97	48.77	0.37	80	Downward Expansion	-46	33
2024-10-11	48.25	48.90	5.77	24	Downward Expansion	-56	41
2024-10-04	44.50	48.86	-3.56	0	Downward Expansion	-70	75
2024-09-27	44.50	48.85	-4.26	40	Downward Expansion	-72	77
2024-09-20	45.38	48.76	-1.25	32	Rotation Down	-68	74
2024-09-13	45.41	48.64	-4.06	320	Rotation Down	-43	64
2024-09-06	45.18	48.53	-4.38	352	Balance	-45	51
2024-08-30	46.61	48.38	-2.42	64	Balance	-29	29
2024-08-23	47.30	48.17	-0.61	40	Balance	7	8
2024-08-16	48.98	47.90	4.39	32	Upward Expansion	42	30
2024-08-09	50.16	47.50	9.76	104	Upward Expansion	52	37
2024-08-02	51.51	47.07	17.27	520	Upward Expansion	60	40
2024-07-26	53.01	46.62	19.83	176	Upward Expansion	75	44
2024-07-19	49.22	46.12	11.88	264	Upward Expansion	38	28
2024-07-12	47.98	45.76	8.61	592	Upward Expansion	38	30
2024-07-05	50.07	45.41	16.36	32	Deceleration	48	38
2024-06-28	51.16	44.93	21.98	376	Deceleration	63	42
2024-06-21	49.05	44.45	20.35	112	Deceleration	29	23
2024-06-14	48.25	44.03	21.04	88	Deceleration	38	28
2024-06-07	48.64	43.63	21.85	104	Deceleration	41	36
2024-05-31	48.31	43.19	20.60	56	Deceleration	40	33
2024-05-24	49.50	42.79	22.21	32	Deceleration	42	36
2024-05-17	49.94	42.36	20.30	3136	Upward Expansion	47	45
2024-05-10	47.77	42.01	16.23	120	Upward Expansion	54	57
2024-05-03	48.00	41.68	16.57	264	Upward Expansion	67	67
2024-04-26	51.50	41.37	27.67	16	Upward Expansion	69	86
2024-04-19	53.09	41.06	33.82	8	Upward Expansion	84	94
2024-04-12	52.96	40.69	33.28	3120	Upward Expansion	91	97
2024-04-05	51.19	40.30	28.47	8	Upward Expansion	91	97
2024-03-29	49.85	39.89	23.92	8	Upward Expansion	93	97
2024-03-22	49.85	39.53	24.90	216	Upward Expansion	98	99
2024-03-15	47.05	39.08	18.12	208	Upward Expansion	97	98
2024-03-08	44.01	38.84	10.15	48	Upward Expansion	90	95
2024-03-01	41.71	38.70	2.46	1600	Upward Expansion	70	86
2024-02-23	41.96	38.53	2.33	352	Upward Expansion	77	87
2024-02-16	42.13	38.32	2.97	32	Rotation Up	86	88
2024-02-09	40.52	38.05	-0.59	8	Rotation Up	50	65
2024-02-02	40.36	37.77	-0.76	416	Balance	48	49
2024-01-26	39.19	37.51	-5.22	1024	Balance	57	32
2024-01-19	36.95	37.29	-10.08	800	Balance	14	11
2024-01-12	37.48	37.10	-11.61	984	Deceleration	26	23
2024-01-05	37.93	36.91	-11.64	1040	Deceleration	29	28
2023-12-29	38.00	36.73	-13.23	320	Deceleration	36	23
2023-12-22	38.27	36.51	-12.00	896	Deceleration	32	19
2023-12-15	37.55	36.33	-12.21	584	Deceleration	13	13
2023-12-08	35.79	36.17	-14.55	96	Deceleration	-6	19
2023-12-01	36.62	36.02	-13.47	744	Deceleration	-2	28
2023-11-24	36.56	35.81	-12.14	1712	Deceleration	-3	25
2023-11-17	36.15	35.70	-13.32	1760	Deceleration	-4	27
2023-11-10	35.39	35.68	-12.54	4144	Deceleration	-11	27
2023-11-03	36.54	35.77	-8.08	32	Deceleration	15	25
2023-10-27	36.35	35.86	-4.66	208	Deceleration	23	26
2023-10-20	39.55	36.01	3.77	264	Upward Expansion	46	34
2023-10-13	37.83	35.99	-2.77	40	Upward Expansion	52	45
2023-10-06	38.89	36.01	1.42	80	Upward Expansion	66	62

Price vs TrendAbove+41.9%

Trend directionRising+23.5%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+128.6%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+61.8%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+57.2%

Relative strength directionImproving+30.8%

Price momentumPositive+56.3%

Volume balanceDemand-led6.13×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

75 / ±100

-12.0 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

85 /100

-8.7 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

VLOE34 Directional State ↗ VLOE34 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance1

Rotation Up85

Upward Expansion97

Deceleration41

Rotation Down9

Downward Expansion19

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 9%Rotation Up 12%Upward Expansion 46%Deceleration 19%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 12%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-05-29	2026-09-25	Established	+68.5%
Deceleration	2026-05-01	2026-05-22	New	-0.2%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-23	2026-04-24	Established	+15.6%
Deceleration	2025-12-26	2026-01-16	New	+12.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-12	2025-12-19	Established	+5.9%
Deceleration	2025-08-22	2025-09-05	New	+9.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-08	2025-08-15	New	-8.7%
Rotation Up	2025-06-13	2025-08-01	Developing	+5.4%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-11	2025-06-06	Developing	+14.3%
Rotation Down	2025-03-21	2025-04-04	New	-19.6%
Balance	2025-02-21	2025-03-14	New	-5.7%
Rotation Up	2025-01-17	2025-02-14	Developing	-6.5%
Downward Expansion	2025-01-10	2025-01-10	New	+0.0%
Balance	2024-12-27	2025-01-03	New	+3.4%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing19

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution51

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2C · Late advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^BVSP

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 100/100
Current Relative Strength: 57.16
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +56.3%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +55.3%
Energy regime cohort: 79th percentile14 in cohort

Test VLOE34 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.24×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume6.13×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution4 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore VLOE34 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity BRL 126.39rising

Slow Activity BRL 99.26rising

Trend Reference BRL 90.19+41.9% close margin

Current Fair Value BRL 55.99+128.6% close margin

Structural low BRL 68.81shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +5.7%

Annualized volatility +40.0%

From structural high -4.6%

From structural low +137.5%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^BVSP	Regime survived	Read
Near term	33	+3.2%-14.0% to +31.6%	+57.6%	+57.6%	-0.4%	+69.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	12	+12.5%-22.0% to +50.7%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+8.6%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	7	+18.9%-19.1% to +55.2%	+71.4%	+71.4%	+4.1%	+71.4%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+40.5%-8.9% to +94.7%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+38.6%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

VLOE34 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map