Weekly structural research · GER · Financial Services

PGH Stage Analysis

SGT German Private Equity GmbH & Co. KGaA

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close EUR 0.21Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^GDAXI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction -59−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 56/100directional strength

Maturity 46/100lifecycle context

Confidence 81/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance -33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -71.2%EUR 0.7299 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	0.21	0.2628	-39.99	14696	Downward Expansion	-59	56
2026-09-25	0.195	0.2667	-46.24	0	Downward Expansion	-74	50
2026-09-18	0.195	0.2707	-47.62	1918	Downward Expansion	-74	40
2026-09-11	0.215	0.2733	-44.54	7004	Downward Expansion	-55	31
2026-09-04	0.275	0.2762	-32.39	4034	Downward Expansion	-32	31
2026-08-28	0.24	0.279	-43.66	0	Downward Expansion	-65	81
2026-08-21	0.205	0.2832	-52.46	0	Downward Expansion	-75	90
2026-08-14	0.1975	0.2864	-56.29	235	Downward Expansion	-89	93
2026-08-07	0.207	0.2896	-55.70	0	Downward Expansion	-87	86
2026-07-31	0.237	0.2957	-49.67	5	Downward Expansion	-70	70
2026-07-24	0.255	0.3011	-46.71	10020	Downward Expansion	-63	66
2026-07-17	0.238	0.3078	-51.72	0	Downward Expansion	-69	77
2026-07-10	0.244	0.3152	-51.94	0	Downward Expansion	-66	72
2026-07-03	0.25	0.3239	-53.04	40621	Downward Expansion	-63	62
2026-06-26	0.245	0.3311	-52.74	9	Downward Expansion	-66	59
2026-06-19	0.244	0.3382	-54.03	0	Balance	-66	50
2026-06-12	0.285	0.3431	-46.16	1860	Balance	-50	40
2026-06-05	0.285	0.3546	-46.96	560	Balance	-51	39
2026-05-29	0.281	0.3673	-48.95	47406	Balance	-53	31
2026-05-22	0.281	0.3782	-49.08	0	Balance	-44	24
2026-05-15	0.285	0.3889	-46.91	392	Balance	-42	23
2026-05-08	0.35	0.3984	-36.48	15450	Balance	-19	13
2026-05-01	0.328	0.4067	-40.99	163	Downward Expansion	-31	16
2026-04-24	0.29	0.4198	-48.03	1766	Downward Expansion	-40	19
2026-04-17	0.31	0.4341	-46.41	104386	Downward Expansion	-36	18
2026-04-10	0.395	0.4483	-30.06	25724	Downward Expansion	-30	20
2026-04-03	0.32	0.4604	-42.39	48229	Downward Expansion	-55	40
2026-03-27	0.286	0.4751	-47.17	16142	Downward Expansion	-57	44
2026-03-20	0.266	0.4921	-51.69	3489	Downward Expansion	-68	53
2026-03-13	0.27	0.5145	-53.92	15969	Downward Expansion	-69	56
2026-03-06	0.326	0.5395	-45.40	6500	Downward Expansion	-60	54
2026-02-27	0.316	0.561	-51.19	3582	Downward Expansion	-62	55
2026-02-20	0.272	0.5858	-58.60	25867	Downward Expansion	-73	58
2026-02-13	0.302	0.6181	-54.24	23497	Downward Expansion	-68	53
2026-02-06	0.36	0.6325	-45.94	20831	Downward Expansion	-63	56
2026-01-30	0.366	0.6452	-45.53	59264	Downward Expansion	-65	69
2026-01-23	0.30	0.6556	-56.64	37764	Downward Expansion	-77	83
2026-01-16	0.294	0.6631	-58.84	229760	Downward Expansion	-83	78
2026-01-09	0.39	0.6708	-46.23	83766	Downward Expansion	-71	61
2026-01-02	0.398	0.6757	-44.37	78092	Downward Expansion	-73	61
2025-12-26	0.458	0.6811	-36.41	1510	Downward Expansion	-66	65
2025-12-19	0.458	0.6851	-37.24	6290	Downward Expansion	-65	73
2025-12-12	0.505	0.6885	-31.48	7258	Downward Expansion	-63	76
2025-12-05	0.468	0.6904	-37.19	32513	Downward Expansion	-65	74
2025-11-28	0.458	0.6959	-39.07	80328	Rotation Down	-70	69
2025-11-21	0.39	0.7008	-47.49	29658	Rotation Down	-53	55
2025-11-14	0.63	0.708	-19.72	9542	Rotation Down	-26	31
2025-11-07	0.665	0.7072	-15.58	2655	Rotation Down	-21	39
2025-10-31	0.61	0.7052	-25.13	14750	Rotation Down	-24	48
2025-10-24	0.60	0.705	-28.62	23108	Balance	-24	42
2025-10-17	0.57	0.7073	-32.31	47582	Balance	-22	27
2025-10-10	0.60	0.7128	-31.32	14326	Balance	-20	18
2025-10-03	0.72	0.7143	-19.61	28878	Balance	8	12
2025-09-26	0.72	0.7128	-18.92	196102	Balance	19	16
2025-09-19	0.735	0.7138	-18.09	26928	Balance	21	18
2025-09-12	0.76	0.716	-16.90	190901	Balance	28	19
2025-09-05	0.76	0.7173	-17.56	65549	Upward Expansion	35	17
2025-08-29	0.795	0.7193	-15.79	239891	Upward Expansion	41	26
2025-08-22	0.94	0.7188	-3.19	345575	Upward Expansion	58	43
2025-08-15	1.02	0.7128	4.72	142819	Upward Expansion	63	69
2025-08-08	0.97	0.7042	0.20	202029	Rotation Up	65	75
2025-08-01	1.06	0.6977	13.15	287542	Rotation Up	46	59
2025-07-25	1.24	0.6882	28.34	341238	Rotation Up	61	54
2025-07-18	0.735	0.6752	-23.67	26232	Downward Expansion	31	37
2025-07-11	0.74	0.6778	-23.24	36564	Downward Expansion	1	14
2025-07-04	0.68	0.6863	-28.11	43887	Downward Expansion	-26	29
2025-06-27	0.525	0.6955	-45.14	3654	Downward Expansion	-72	75
2025-06-20	0.525	0.712	-43.79	9508	Downward Expansion	-75	69
2025-06-13	0.535	0.7288	-43.38	6644	Downward Expansion	-72	60
2025-06-06	0.56	0.7463	-42.92	8878	Downward Expansion	-67	60
2025-05-30	0.58	0.7653	-40.37	222	Downward Expansion	-62	56
2025-05-23	0.56	0.7847	-41.70	0	Downward Expansion	-73	61
2025-05-16	0.56	0.8043	-42.26	17189	Downward Expansion	-78	63
2025-05-09	0.635	0.8253	-34.04	13970	Downward Expansion	-64	59
2025-05-02	0.605	0.8435	-36.13	1389	Downward Expansion	-67	73
2025-04-25	0.605	0.8643	-33.92	0	Downward Expansion	-70	83
2025-04-18	0.605	0.8825	-30.82	0	Downward Expansion	-75	86
2025-04-11	0.605	0.9023	-28.16	0	Downward Expansion	-79	71
2025-04-04	0.605	0.9175	-29.29	15545	Downward Expansion	-85	81
2025-03-28	0.67	0.9307	-28.21	6307	Downward Expansion	-72	81
2025-03-21	0.735	0.941	-22.87	20709	Downward Expansion	-64	79
2025-03-14	0.645	0.9447	-32.67	4070	Downward Expansion	-83	90
2025-03-07	0.675	0.9513	-29.84	14380	Downward Expansion	-83	83
2025-02-28	0.75	0.9502	-22.32	2050	Downward Expansion	-61	52
2025-02-21	0.80	0.949	-18.07	1429	Downward Expansion	-49	46
2025-02-14	0.80	0.9457	-20.35	5000	Downward Expansion	-60	51
2025-02-07	0.82	0.9405	-17.30	1881	Rotation Down	-63	60
2025-01-31	0.78	0.9328	-22.69	4001	Rotation Down	-39	65
2025-01-24	0.76	0.9263	-25.01	0	Rotation Down	-44	73
2025-01-17	0.76	0.92	-24.71	20884	Rotation Down	-46	73
2025-01-10	0.775	0.9138	-22.21	800	Rotation Down	-39	69
2025-01-03	0.775	0.9075	-22.56	4556	Rotation Down	-43	67
2024-12-27	0.85	0.9012	-17.03	122	Deceleration	-33	49
2024-12-20	0.815	0.8917	-21.35	19422	Deceleration	-20	31
2024-12-13	0.995	0.8843	-7.94	5687	Deceleration	8	18
2024-12-06	0.955	0.871	-12.75	16490	Deceleration	7	18
2024-11-29	1.02	0.8582	-4.45	9607	Deceleration	31	24
2024-11-22	1.03	0.844	-3.46	48046	Deceleration	37	24
2024-11-15	1.06	0.8285	-1.81	42535	Deceleration	43	36
2024-11-08	1.13	0.813	3.07	16032	Upward Expansion	48	45
2024-11-01	1.16	0.7967	4.10	22722	Upward Expansion	60	55
2024-10-25	1.15	0.7788	0.70	4092	Upward Expansion	64	63
2024-10-18	1.19	0.7615	1.72	41003	Upward Expansion	66	65
2024-10-11	1.18	0.7428	0.81	11931	Upward Expansion	68	69
2024-10-04	1.23	0.7245	4.88	58180	Upward Expansion	83	90
2024-09-27	1.15	0.7318	-4.93	21203	Upward Expansion	78	91
2024-09-20	1.20	0.7438	1.76	15230	Rotation Up	94	97
2024-09-13	1.06	0.7488	-11.17	9813	Rotation Up	59	85
2024-09-06	1.00	0.7605	-15.70	41288	Rotation Up	61	86
2024-08-30	0.98	0.7752	-21.32	31534	Rotation Up	64	75
2024-08-23	0.845	0.7905	-32.32	0	Rotation Up	29	46
2024-08-16	0.845	0.8093	-32.43	47025	Rotation Up	29	41
2024-08-09	0.64	0.8298	-48.06	15017	Downward Expansion	-7	27
2024-08-02	0.715	0.8585	-42.96	1595	Downward Expansion	0	28
2024-07-26	0.70	0.8847	-47.49	45166	Downward Expansion	-30	32
2024-07-19	0.645	0.9097	-51.90	37608	Downward Expansion	-51	54
2024-07-12	0.59	0.9358	-58.22	4028	Downward Expansion	-53	60
2024-07-05	0.585	0.9645	-58.91	30899	Downward Expansion	-65	85
2024-06-28	0.57	0.9913	-60.26	6197	Downward Expansion	-69	88
2024-06-21	0.575	1.02	-60.48	7320	Downward Expansion	-67	88
2024-06-14	0.585	1.06	-60.08	0	Downward Expansion	-65	87
2024-06-07	0.585	1.09	-61.86	28692	Downward Expansion	-61	60
2024-05-31	0.565	1.13	-63.65	17444	Downward Expansion	-67	63
2024-05-24	0.595	1.16	-62.70	4213	Downward Expansion	-64	63
2024-05-17	0.595	1.19	-63.23	0	Downward Expansion	-65	65
2024-05-10	0.57	1.22	-65.38	11770	Downward Expansion	-69	67
2024-05-03	0.595	1.26	-62.82	7294	Downward Expansion	-67	67
2024-04-26	0.565	1.29	-65.45	16416	Downward Expansion	-75	74
2024-04-19	0.595	1.33	-63.26	10641	Downward Expansion	-73	90
2024-04-12	0.64	1.36	-61.42	15587	Downward Expansion	-67	88
2024-04-05	0.625	1.40	-63.29	2000	Downward Expansion	-76	92
2024-03-29	0.63	1.44	-64.10	0	Downward Expansion	-89	96
2024-03-22	0.63	1.47	-63.98	0	Downward Expansion	-94	97
2024-03-15	0.63	1.51	-63.85	359234	Downward Expansion	-92	87
2024-03-08	1.45	1.55	-17.25	8603	Downward Expansion	-40	26
2024-03-01	1.51	1.56	-13.73	20249	Downward Expansion	-49	31
2024-02-23	1.35	1.57	-21.63	3953	Downward Expansion	-72	56
2024-02-16	1.41	1.58	-17.07	3840	Downward Expansion	-61	45
2024-02-09	1.44	1.60	-14.60	2010	Downward Expansion	-56	38
2024-02-02	1.44	1.62	-14.86	492	Downward Expansion	-56	37
2024-01-26	1.41	1.63	-17.13	2721	Downward Expansion	-62	36
2024-01-19	1.46	1.64	-12.39	2808	Downward Expansion	-55	32
2024-01-12	1.50	1.64	-11.11	5500	Downward Expansion	-54	36
2024-01-05	1.50	1.64	-10.84	3500	Downward Expansion	-58	47
2023-12-29	1.45	1.65	-14.98	23651	Downward Expansion	-60	65
2023-12-22	1.43	1.65	-16.42	6360	Downward Expansion	-65	65
2023-12-15	1.45	1.66	-15.97	29268	Downward Expansion	-64	44
2023-12-08	1.39	1.66	-19.96	49092	Downward Expansion	-77	44
2023-12-01	1.56	1.66	-8.72	14003	Rotation Down	-46	26
2023-11-24	1.67	1.66	-0.42	1729	Rotation Down	-14	17
2023-11-17	1.59	1.65	-4.72	6624	Rotation Down	-34	44
2023-11-10	1.54	1.65	-3.81	3841	Rotation Down	-39	56
2023-11-03	1.55	1.65	-3.25	19829	Rotation Down	-38	51
2023-10-27	1.51	1.65	-2.95	10555	Rotation Down	-44	61
2023-10-20	1.59	1.65	0.86	17067	Rotation Down	-31	54
2023-10-13	1.65	1.64	1.34	8750	Deceleration	-21	43

Price vs TrendBelow-20.1%

Trend directionFalling-12.7%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-71.2%

Fair Value directionMoving away-0.4%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-40.0%

Relative strength directionImproving+13.1%

Price momentumNegative-34.4%

Volume balanceDemand-led3.14×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-59 / ±100

-26.9 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

56 /100

+25.0 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

PGH Directional State ↗ PGH Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance25

Rotation Up17

Upward Expansion12

Deceleration42

Rotation Down62

Downward Expansion81

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 9%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 7%Deceleration 5%Rotation Down 12%Downward Expansion 62%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-06-26	2026-10-02	Established	-14.3%
Balance	2026-05-08	2026-06-19	Developing	-30.3%
Downward Expansion	2025-12-05	2026-05-01	Established	-29.9%
Rotation Down	2025-10-31	2025-11-28	Developing	-24.9%
Balance	2025-09-12	2025-10-24	Developing	-21.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-15	2025-09-05	New	-25.5%
Rotation Up	2025-07-25	2025-08-08	New	-21.8%
Downward Expansion	2025-02-14	2025-07-18	Established	-8.1%
Rotation Down	2025-01-03	2025-02-07	Developing	+5.8%
Deceleration	2024-11-15	2024-12-27	Developing	-19.8%
Upward Expansion	2024-09-27	2024-11-08	Developing	-1.7%
Rotation Up	2024-08-16	2024-09-20	Developing	+42.0%
Downward Expansion	2023-12-08	2024-08-09	Extended	-54.0%
Rotation Down	2023-10-20	2023-12-01	Developing	-1.9%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing68

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution2

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^GDAXI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 71/100
Current Relative Strength: -39.99
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -34.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -43.3%
Financial Services regime cohort: 35th percentile20 in cohort

Test PGH trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume2.29×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume3.14×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore PGH Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 0.208falling

Slow Activity EUR 0.2426falling

Trend Reference EUR 0.2628-20.1% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 0.7299-71.2% close margin

Structural low EUR 0.1515shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +13.1%

Annualized volatility +82.4%

From structural high -70.2%

From structural low +38.6%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^GDAXI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	36	-3.2%-58.3% to +55.9%	+36.1%	+63.9%	-2.6%	+86.1%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	13	-6.9%-59.7% to +82.1%	+38.5%	+53.8%	-10.8%	+61.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	7	+12.0%-57.9% to +63.2%	+57.1%	+42.9%	+8.5%	+28.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-26.0%-62.3% to +13.0%	+25.0%	+75.0%	-45.6%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

PGH Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map