Weekly structural research · NYSE · Financial Services

MA Stage Analysis

Mastercard Inc

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close USD 551.45Tenure NewBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 39−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 24/100directional strength

Maturity 61/100lifecycle context

Confidence 77/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +8.7%USD 507.30 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	551.45	526.54	-5.45	16501510	Deceleration	39	24
2026-09-25	566.81	525.54	-3.41	13807388	Upward Expansion	45	35
2026-09-18	564.41	523.85	-2.90	14532499	Upward Expansion	60	49
2026-09-11	568.35	522.56	-2.66	8461535	Upward Expansion	64	59
2026-09-04	578.36	520.86	-2.05	12767011	Upward Expansion	66	77
2026-08-28	595.30	519.84	0.53	14687227	Upward Expansion	82	85
2026-08-21	580.63	517.93	-1.85	14793825	Upward Expansion	78	85
2026-08-14	569.29	516.03	-5.50	12661014	Upward Expansion	74	82
2026-08-07	562.95	515.01	-6.81	15183917	Rotation Up	74	81
2026-07-31	573.10	515.40	-2.23	18899730	Rotation Up	58	74
2026-07-24	539.66	515.00	-7.24	12445288	Rotation Up	38	59
2026-07-17	543.60	516.27	-7.49	15471291	Balance	33	46
2026-07-10	526.74	517.17	-12.08	14279500	Balance	0	16
2026-07-03	538.49	518.61	-9.30	17822212	Downward Expansion	4	9
2026-06-26	498.19	518.79	-14.67	24425722	Downward Expansion	-50	29
2026-06-19	488.98	520.47	-18.66	17496571	Downward Expansion	-56	34
2026-06-12	489.17	522.13	-18.35	17427384	Downward Expansion	-56	34
2026-06-05	490.26	523.95	-18.26	23160167	Downward Expansion	-57	34
2026-05-29	493.98	525.95	-20.32	14401952	Downward Expansion	-55	34
2026-05-22	498.54	527.82	-19.07	15502561	Downward Expansion	-52	34
2026-05-15	494.20	530.27	-19.65	16580363	Downward Expansion	-56	35
2026-05-08	495.48	532.43	-19.87	22107563	Downward Expansion	-45	26
2026-05-01	495.46	534.44	-18.62	22807594	Downward Expansion	-46	27
2026-04-24	504.17	537.18	-16.99	13369123	Downward Expansion	-43	28
2026-04-17	521.30	539.13	-14.23	15559601	Downward Expansion	-58	41
2026-04-10	498.66	541.14	-14.73	16078889	Downward Expansion	-63	56
2026-04-03	492.59	543.77	-13.18	15580575	Downward Expansion	-66	71
2026-03-27	483.40	546.74	-12.31	15646289	Downward Expansion	-77	74
2026-03-20	495.46	550.38	-12.54	18791091	Downward Expansion	-74	68
2026-03-13	497.13	553.74	-14.18	14692974	Downward Expansion	-77	68
2026-03-06	521.44	556.47	-11.71	17938230	Downward Expansion	-62	58
2026-02-27	516.32	558.14	-14.64	25709246	Downward Expansion	-68	56
2026-02-20	525.50	559.51	-13.97	12602247	Downward Expansion	-63	59
2026-02-13	517.47	560.85	-14.65	17508320	Downward Expansion	-71	69
2026-02-06	547.79	561.93	-11.14	23155084	Downward Expansion	-53	52
2026-01-30	537.86	561.93	-13.20	23788109	Downward Expansion	-54	55
2026-01-23	523.83	562.86	-15.40	19113670	Balance	-65	46
2026-01-16	538.56	563.64	-13.55	23653974	Balance	-41	17
2026-01-09	574.55	563.35	-8.29	16187160	Balance	26	24
2026-01-02	561.31	562.82	-9.06	8426663	Balance	10	18
2025-12-26	577.73	563.66	-7.49	6326308	Balance	9	17
2025-12-19	570.38	563.81	-7.48	18271371	Downward Expansion	-21	14
2025-12-12	570.08	563.47	-7.53	14563699	Downward Expansion	-31	19
2025-12-05	543.76	563.80	-12.39	12996791	Downward Expansion	-58	48
2025-11-28	548.75	564.51	-11.43	12513931	Downward Expansion	-55	52
2025-11-21	538.65	564.76	-10.01	15924192	Downward Expansion	-66	61
2025-11-14	543.97	564.48	-10.98	10172292	Deceleration	-27	37
2025-11-07	550.19	563.49	-9.99	13123390	Deceleration	-21	28
2025-10-31	550.21	562.04	-11.57	17512570	Deceleration	-24	22
2025-10-24	571.82	559.91	-7.61	10616887	Deceleration	13	12
2025-10-17	559.16	558.74	-7.97	13854364	Deceleration	12	17
2025-10-10	555.68	557.82	-7.04	12763688	Deceleration	10	13
2025-10-03	577.80	556.76	-5.71	13495751	Deceleration	32	18
2025-09-26	562.55	555.59	-7.19	14140177	Upward Expansion	32	18
2025-09-19	581.49	555.91	-4.37	17730686	Upward Expansion	55	37
2025-09-12	577.76	554.97	-3.79	11400206	Upward Expansion	58	57
2025-09-05	581.55	554.40	-1.64	8328716	Upward Expansion	59	65
2025-08-29	592.57	553.63	0.60	12511174	Upward Expansion	68	70
2025-08-22	596.22	552.26	1.30	11769836	Upward Expansion	72	65
2025-08-15	579.04	550.04	-1.14	11970010	Upward Expansion	59	49
2025-08-08	571.69	548.10	-1.33	14000959	Upward Expansion	55	31
2025-08-01	557.33	545.74	-1.33	15604964	Upward Expansion	41	18
2025-07-25	565.62	544.38	-2.22	9774311	Upward Expansion	49	22
2025-07-18	550.13	543.11	-3.29	12676778	Upward Expansion	27	14
2025-07-11	547.66	542.22	-2.98	13815940	Upward Expansion	26	20
2025-07-04	565.88	541.44	0.16	12913113	Upward Expansion	36	22
2025-06-27	547.07	540.04	-1.32	18675547	Upward Expansion	32	16
2025-06-20	529.82	539.41	-0.95	20524555	Upward Expansion	27	19
2025-06-13	558.71	538.96	4.40	14197785	Upward Expansion	58	46
2025-06-06	586.63	537.58	9.50	8745229	Upward Expansion	70	72
2025-05-30	582.14	535.36	10.79	10287232	Upward Expansion	69	70
2025-05-23	560.25	532.74	8.84	10163923	Upward Expansion	58	59
2025-05-16	579.83	530.83	10.06	11868489	Deceleration	70	55
2025-05-09	565.28	528.56	13.23	10499252	Deceleration	52	34
2025-05-02	556.08	526.31	11.21	13033144	Deceleration	43	18
2025-04-25	530.33	524.20	9.43	12996847	Deceleration	-13	21
2025-04-18	514.27	522.81	11.13	11047483	Deceleration	-18	28
2025-04-11	506.74	521.92	8.09	22105363	Deceleration	-21	27
2025-04-04	486.16	521.31	9.68	20019996	Deceleration	-35	33
2025-03-28	536.62	520.81	10.19	13136915	Deceleration	27	22
2025-03-21	531.74	518.87	7.68	16284731	Deceleration	34	18
2025-03-14	523.75	516.54	6.65	16027278	Upward Expansion	35	26
2025-03-07	542.74	514.55	8.00	15500925	Upward Expansion	61	50
2025-02-28	572.06	511.53	10.40	13032560	Upward Expansion	79	85
2025-02-21	553.40	507.71	5.85	8961656	Upward Expansion	66	80
2025-02-14	560.60	503.72	5.49	9565168	Upward Expansion	76	84
2025-02-07	558.60	499.67	6.64	11986550	Upward Expansion	80	76
2025-01-31	551.34	495.57	5.10	18862332	Deceleration	76	46
2025-01-24	529.56	492.00	-0.10	9414059	Deceleration	49	26
2025-01-17	520.83	488.88	-0.10	14265908	Deceleration	40	22
2025-01-10	500.95	486.51	-1.16	10405003	Upward Expansion	36	24
2025-01-03	516.74	484.46	-0.10	8490908	Upward Expansion	58	43
2024-12-27	527.48	482.05	1.40	5877171	Upward Expansion	66	53
2024-12-20	523.35	479.20	1.25	20537264	Upward Expansion	64	55
2024-12-13	524.31	476.62	-0.45	10595564	Upward Expansion	68	59
2024-12-06	523.88	474.30	-1.16	11966453	Upward Expansion	69	61
2024-11-29	528.22	471.90	0.45	10677711	Upward Expansion	79	72
2024-11-22	516.24	468.90	-0.72	13827160	Upward Expansion	69	61
2024-11-15	517.26	466.93	1.05	12362107	Upward Expansion	73	70
2024-11-08	520.11	464.69	-0.51	12570236	Upward Expansion	82	82
2024-11-01	503.58	462.69	0.85	16651171	Upward Expansion	67	75
2024-10-25	502.86	461.60	-0.70	9327784	Upward Expansion	69	77
2024-10-18	511.76	460.68	0.06	12801965	Upward Expansion	83	83
2024-10-11	497.81	459.47	-1.90	8859524	Upward Expansion	74	76
2024-10-04	492.64	458.53	-1.94	11665353	Upward Expansion	72	76
2024-09-27	488.62	457.55	-2.62	15069186	Upward Expansion	70	74
2024-09-20	487.73	456.94	-2.39	12973551	Rotation Up	73	75
2024-09-13	488.34	456.26	-1.04	11561903	Rotation Up	51	65
2024-09-06	471.28	455.38	-0.80	8354802	Rotation Up	29	53
2024-08-30	478.42	454.74	-3.59	9391446	Rotation Up	37	52
2024-08-23	461.70	453.94	-6.84	9084788	Balance	20	26
2024-08-16	464.11	452.98	-5.23	9283010	Balance	20	20
2024-08-09	452.13	451.88	-4.10	12661485	Downward Expansion	-25	13
2024-08-02	457.32	450.93	-3.06	15227381	Downward Expansion	-25	15
2024-07-26	433.72	449.46	-10.04	12686167	Downward Expansion	-58	40
2024-07-19	439.18	449.01	-9.79	12961074	Deceleration	-27	27
2024-07-12	435.63	448.30	-12.42	14850812	Deceleration	-32	23
2024-07-05	444.26	447.53	-10.05	10624126	Deceleration	-25	20
2024-06-28	436.03	446.26	-10.19	14997184	Deceleration	-36	26
2024-06-21	449.56	445.34	-7.62	13057549	Deceleration	-17	19
2024-06-14	439.46	443.90	-9.21	11548951	Deceleration	-25	33
2024-06-07	444.56	442.41	-6.73	9929275	Deceleration	0	13
2024-05-31	441.87	440.54	-6.17	10655193	Deceleration	-3	12
2024-05-24	445.93	438.49	-5.75	9523855	Deceleration	2	15
2024-05-17	454.91	435.59	-3.94	11896250	Deceleration	12	16
2024-05-10	451.66	433.05	-3.18	10914384	Deceleration	11	20
2024-05-03	438.42	431.07	-4.38	17377720	Deceleration	10	21
2024-04-26	457.04	429.53	0.12	12199565	Deceleration	38	24
2024-04-19	450.09	427.28	1.18	10140740	Upward Expansion	45	34
2024-04-12	459.96	425.47	0.23	11668684	Upward Expansion	61	52
2024-04-05	470.95	423.73	1.12	11555263	Upward Expansion	64	62
2024-03-29	475.31	421.64	1.21	9639471	Upward Expansion	72	66
2024-03-22	475.41	419.43	1.65	10671218	Upward Expansion	76	69
2024-03-15	469.64	416.80	2.72	12500607	Upward Expansion	72	68
2024-03-08	463.16	414.00	1.31	10919684	Upward Expansion	68	72
2024-03-01	470.43	411.52	2.69	10831167	Upward Expansion	80	91
2024-02-23	467.27	408.68	3.06	12277735	Upward Expansion	84	93
2024-02-16	462.04	405.99	3.69	10996562	Upward Expansion	87	95
2024-02-09	451.93	403.63	1.16	11422302	Upward Expansion	83	93
2024-02-02	454.59	401.77	3.18	15061528	Upward Expansion	93	95
2024-01-26	432.83	399.36	-0.32	13431133	Upward Expansion	78	82
2024-01-19	431.10	397.82	0.24	9564678	Upward Expansion	79	75
2024-01-12	423.52	395.89	-0.45	11487397	Upward Expansion	72	69
2024-01-05	413.32	394.10	-1.13	9944197	Upward Expansion	63	66
2023-12-29	420.31	392.42	-1.15	5792466	Upward Expansion	73	74
2023-12-22	417.93	390.65	-1.41	11931972	Upward Expansion	74	74
2023-12-15	412.48	388.98	-1.82	18223537	Upward Expansion	68	70
2023-12-08	406.17	387.86	-1.05	12368853	Upward Expansion	61	56
2023-12-01	408.34	386.83	-0.28	12837594	Deceleration	56	43
2023-11-24	406.50	385.82	0.12	8358053	Deceleration	52	31
2023-11-17	394.48	384.72	-1.82	12209686	Deceleration	-1	11
2023-11-10	388.65	383.86	-1.01	12647464	Deceleration	-17	26
2023-11-03	380.44	383.10	-1.71	13805445	Deceleration	-18	31
2023-10-27	358.79	382.26	-1.81	17824751	Deceleration	-42	39
2023-10-20	378.82	382.18	1.15	12455256	Deceleration	7	17
2023-10-13	392.24	381.06	2.44	11259488	Deceleration	33	22

Price vs TrendAbove+4.7%

Trend directionRising+2.2%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+8.7%

Fair Value directionMoving away-0.5%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-5.4%

Relative strength directionImproving+3.9%

Price momentumPositive+11.9%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.96×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

39 / ±100

-27.8 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

24 /100

-53.2 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

MA Directional State ↗ MA Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance34

Rotation Up24

Upward Expansion58

Deceleration91

Rotation Down28

Downward Expansion21

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 6%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 44%Deceleration 26%Downward Expansion 20%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-10-02	2026-10-02	New	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-08-14	2026-09-25	Developing	-0.4%
Rotation Up	2026-07-24	2026-08-07	New	+4.3%
Balance	2026-07-10	2026-07-17	New	+3.2%
Downward Expansion	2026-01-30	2026-07-03	Established	+0.1%
Balance	2025-12-26	2026-01-23	Developing	-9.3%
Downward Expansion	2025-11-21	2025-12-19	Developing	+5.9%
Deceleration	2025-10-03	2025-11-14	Developing	-5.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-23	2025-09-26	Established	+0.4%
Deceleration	2025-03-21	2025-05-16	Developing	+9.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-07	2025-03-14	Developing	-6.2%
Deceleration	2025-01-17	2025-01-31	New	+5.9%
Upward Expansion	2024-09-27	2025-01-10	Established	+2.5%
Rotation Up	2024-08-30	2024-09-20	New	+1.9%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing39

Stage 2 · Advancing69

Stage 3 · Distribution57

Stage 4 · Declining31

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2A · Early advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 28/100
Current Relative Strength: -5.45
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +11.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -5.7%
Financial Services regime cohort: 49th percentile103 in cohort

Test MA trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.05×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.96×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore MA Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 562.18falling

Slow Activity USD 543.27rising

Trend Reference USD 526.54+4.7% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 507.30+8.7% close margin

Structural low USD 463.75shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +4.1%

Annualized volatility +19.1%

From structural high -8.3%

From structural low +18.9%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	16	+0.6%-4.8% to +12.7%	+56.2%	+56.2%	-0.3%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	8	+1.1%-5.2% to +10.2%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-2.8%	+12.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	+7.8%-15.6% to +17.3%	+66.7%	+66.7%	-1.0%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+8.7%-4.9% to +37.8%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+5.3%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

MA Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map