Weekly structural research · GER · Financial Services

PBB Stage Analysis

Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close EUR 3.05Tenure NewBenchmark ^GDAXI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Down · Supply rotation

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction -42−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 57/100directional strength

Maturity 10/100lifecycle context

Confidence 74/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance -50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -35.3%EUR 4.72 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	3.05	3.31	-19.49	953707	Rotation Down	-42	57
2026-09-25	3.15	3.31	-18.52	1084954	Rotation Down	-28	40
2026-09-18	3.18	3.32	-18.29	1554127	Balance	-23	26
2026-09-11	3.36	3.34	-15.40	979738	Balance	10	12
2026-09-04	3.43	3.35	-16.15	8761261	Balance	29	13
2026-08-28	3.49	3.38	-17.25	314636	Balance	35	16
2026-08-21	3.21	3.40	-23.37	520651	Balance	-15	10
2026-08-14	3.61	3.43	-16.04	329767	Balance	31	26
2026-08-07	3.44	3.46	-20.38	233067	Balance	19	15
2026-07-31	3.42	3.49	-19.70	196737	Balance	0	9
2026-07-24	3.49	3.52	-17.16	147918	Balance	3	10
2026-07-17	3.62	3.54	-14.11	198919	Balance	3	4
2026-07-10	3.42	3.56	-20.33	319048	Balance	-24	14
2026-07-03	3.45	3.59	-22.45	190114	Balance	-21	12
2026-06-26	3.25	3.63	-24.33	229602	Balance	-31	18
2026-06-19	3.50	3.67	-20.39	478982	Balance	-6	11
2026-06-12	3.51	3.69	-19.63	259848	Balance	-7	14
2026-06-05	3.29	3.71	-25.63	455816	Balance	-13	17
2026-05-29	3.69	3.73	-18.63	1436495	Downward Expansion	3	15
2026-05-22	3.52	3.76	-22.55	1923422	Downward Expansion	-27	19
2026-05-15	3.50	3.81	-20.63	3117877	Downward Expansion	-34	21
2026-05-08	3.27	3.85	-27.69	1932878	Downward Expansion	-37	24
2026-05-01	3.25	3.91	-28.73	777532	Downward Expansion	-39	27
2026-04-24	3.15	3.98	-31.12	1707934	Downward Expansion	-44	36
2026-04-17	3.47	4.04	-26.60	2891693	Downward Expansion	-49	45
2026-04-10	3.17	4.09	-31.13	1694930	Downward Expansion	-64	64
2026-04-03	3.00	4.16	-33.76	1780484	Downward Expansion	-67	77
2026-03-27	2.93	4.23	-33.61	5347460	Downward Expansion	-68	88
2026-03-20	2.78	4.31	-37.72	4622969	Downward Expansion	-86	95
2026-03-13	2.76	4.40	-41.73	5105361	Downward Expansion	-95	98
2026-03-06	2.98	4.49	-38.29	6995192	Downward Expansion	-96	98
2026-02-27	3.59	4.58	-31.25	3309787	Downward Expansion	-84	92
2026-02-20	3.72	4.63	-29.44	3673110	Downward Expansion	-80	84
2026-02-13	3.63	4.69	-30.75	4799536	Downward Expansion	-87	78
2026-02-06	4.24	4.75	-19.36	1305842	Downward Expansion	-57	39
2026-01-30	4.17	4.78	-20.58	958812	Downward Expansion	-61	36
2026-01-23	4.23	4.82	-21.10	1217872	Downward Expansion	-58	36
2026-01-16	4.36	4.85	-20.61	1391037	Downward Expansion	-57	40
2026-01-09	4.43	4.87	-19.69	1980601	Downward Expansion	-59	46
2026-01-02	4.13	4.90	-23.20	1209236	Downward Expansion	-68	54
2025-12-26	4.16	4.95	-22.66	612485	Downward Expansion	-61	44
2025-12-19	4.21	5.00	-21.95	1999257	Downward Expansion	-58	39
2025-12-12	4.38	5.04	-18.81	1526615	Downward Expansion	-52	42
2025-12-05	4.62	5.07	-14.17	1981291	Downward Expansion	-63	56
2025-11-28	4.53	5.10	-15.57	2592929	Downward Expansion	-68	87
2025-11-21	4.06	5.12	-22.32	1984969	Downward Expansion	-78	91
2025-11-14	4.07	5.17	-25.12	2791315	Downward Expansion	-84	92
2025-11-07	3.92	5.21	-27.67	6896286	Downward Expansion	-91	87
2025-10-31	4.56	5.24	-17.74	2198602	Downward Expansion	-79	68
2025-10-24	4.98	5.25	-11.80	1085681	Downward Expansion	-57	41
2025-10-17	4.86	5.26	-12.86	1407684	Downward Expansion	-68	56
2025-10-10	5.07	5.29	-11.12	801989	Downward Expansion	-56	52
2025-10-03	5.14	5.31	-11.01	1194367	Downward Expansion	-56	56
2025-09-26	4.98	5.32	-12.09	1356840	Balance	-64	59
2025-09-19	5.07	5.33	-10.69	1181588	Balance	-59	40
2025-09-12	5.14	5.35	-10.38	889439	Balance	-40	20
2025-09-05	5.17	5.37	-9.95	1341628	Balance	-11	5
2025-08-29	5.28	5.38	-9.75	1867330	Balance	11	15
2025-08-22	5.72	5.38	-4.44	2036266	Balance	33	30
2025-08-15	5.40	5.36	-9.88	3248493	Balance	7	11
2025-08-08	5.44	5.35	-8.74	762056	Balance	9	12
2025-08-01	5.28	5.33	-9.05	1157009	Balance	-1	6
2025-07-25	5.52	5.31	-8.46	1160875	Balance	37	17
2025-07-18	5.44	5.28	-10.33	1534964	Balance	-8	7
2025-07-11	5.22	5.25	-14.22	1330125	Balance	-21	23
2025-07-04	5.18	5.24	-13.69	755861	Balance	-20	18
2025-06-27	5.26	5.23	-13.89	1320985	Balance	13	10
2025-06-20	4.98	5.22	-16.30	3130685	Balance	13	6
2025-06-13	5.32	5.22	-11.74	975858	Balance	45	25
2025-06-06	5.56	5.21	-11.09	1133036	Balance	53	39
2025-05-30	5.60	5.19	-9.77	1203030	Balance	47	33
2025-05-23	5.33	5.17	-13.34	1210227	Balance	34	19
2025-05-16	5.40	5.17	-13.14	2234209	Balance	35	19
2025-05-09	5.50	5.17	-10.95	1818861	Balance	38	19
2025-05-02	5.25	5.17	-13.70	611438	Balance	14	10
2025-04-25	5.32	5.18	-9.36	1183770	Balance	14	16
2025-04-18	5.29	5.20	-5.51	794851	Balance	2	13
2025-04-11	4.96	5.21	-7.82	2018190	Balance	-13	14
2025-04-04	4.86	5.23	-11.08	2248719	Balance	-14	11
2025-03-28	5.40	5.26	-9.19	1510544	Rotation Up	16	18
2025-03-21	5.71	5.24	-5.98	2426830	Rotation Up	64	38
2025-03-14	5.43	5.21	-10.90	1513252	Rotation Up	29	28
2025-03-07	5.57	5.19	-8.76	4117950	Rotation Up	62	52
2025-02-28	5.36	5.16	-10.33	3932898	Rotation Up	35	55
2025-02-21	5.73	5.15	-2.82	2213828	Rotation Up	53	70
2025-02-14	5.59	5.13	-5.97	1482679	Rotation Up	38	58
2025-02-07	5.42	5.12	-5.57	1058851	Balance	30	34
2025-01-31	5.34	5.12	-6.84	1018766	Balance	14	20
2025-01-24	5.16	5.12	-8.94	1278973	Downward Expansion	-23	16
2025-01-17	5.11	5.11	-8.32	1754508	Downward Expansion	-37	24
2025-01-10	4.69	5.11	-13.39	1781601	Downward Expansion	-60	58
2025-01-03	4.82	5.13	-10.38	953785	Downward Expansion	-58	55
2024-12-27	4.65	5.15	-14.57	745819	Downward Expansion	-66	61
2024-12-20	4.55	5.18	-16.72	1904365	Downward Expansion	-73	61
2024-12-13	4.85	5.22	-14.27	863666	Balance	-60	45
2024-12-06	5.04	5.24	-11.55	1362857	Balance	-53	36
2024-11-29	4.91	5.24	-11.08	978081	Balance	-57	47
2024-11-22	4.92	5.23	-10.04	775543	Balance	-31	31
2024-11-15	5.12	5.21	-6.64	1514078	Balance	-14	20
2024-11-08	4.87	5.19	-11.80	1016850	Balance	-15	22
2024-11-01	5.03	5.19	-9.84	1368127	Balance	12	15
2024-10-25	5.38	5.17	-5.67	1214261	Upward Expansion	37	19
2024-10-18	5.24	5.15	-9.91	2178246	Upward Expansion	50	31
2024-10-11	5.43	5.12	-5.96	2102000	Upward Expansion	60	59
2024-10-04	5.77	5.09	0.45	983660	Upward Expansion	67	73
2024-09-27	5.81	5.04	-1.52	1283981	Upward Expansion	71	67
2024-09-20	5.61	4.97	-1.79	1400233	Deceleration	63	48
2024-09-13	5.53	4.91	-4.03	961820	Deceleration	50	33
2024-09-06	5.61	4.85	-1.37	2359476	Deceleration	47	20
2024-08-30	4.88	4.81	-17.57	560704	Deceleration	2	27
2024-08-23	4.88	4.82	-17.39	643014	Deceleration	3	22
2024-08-16	4.75	4.84	-19.09	1141465	Balance	-2	19
2024-08-09	4.80	4.87	-16.29	1115285	Balance	4	12
2024-08-02	4.87	4.90	-15.66	753672	Upward Expansion	25	13
2024-07-26	5.15	4.93	-15.55	1007133	Upward Expansion	40	26
2024-07-19	5.34	4.96	-12.10	855547	Deceleration	42	27
2024-07-12	5.43	4.98	-13.99	1295216	Deceleration	19	16
2024-07-05	5.35	5.00	-14.54	1619918	Deceleration	15	13
2024-06-28	4.92	5.01	-21.01	1582938	Rotation Up	11	12
2024-06-21	5.21	5.03	-16.70	1086696	Rotation Up	30	30
2024-06-14	5.19	5.06	-16.69	2125178	Rotation Up	34	53
2024-06-07	5.45	5.09	-15.70	3324649	Rotation Up	28	62
2024-05-31	5.58	5.10	-14.01	1936250	Rotation Up	33	62
2024-05-24	5.59	5.13	-15.34	1433310	Balance	36	54
2024-05-17	5.57	5.15	-16.39	3451871	Balance	16	22
2024-05-10	4.91	5.15	-27.45	2002644	Balance	-16	12
2024-05-03	4.59	5.19	-30.24	1266498	Downward Expansion	-35	19
2024-04-26	4.50	5.25	-33.02	1653511	Downward Expansion	-37	20
2024-04-19	4.45	5.32	-33.07	2085213	Downward Expansion	-35	23
2024-04-12	4.82	5.40	-29.33	2102464	Downward Expansion	-34	24
2024-04-05	4.58	5.47	-34.49	2008219	Downward Expansion	-39	26
2024-03-29	4.81	5.55	-33.12	2524286	Downward Expansion	-44	33
2024-03-22	4.28	5.63	-40.24	2951935	Downward Expansion	-62	56
2024-03-15	4.47	5.71	-37.53	2902024	Downward Expansion	-66	65
2024-03-08	4.32	5.79	-40.10	7195804	Downward Expansion	-68	88
2024-03-01	3.72	5.88	-49.08	4163606	Downward Expansion	-81	93
2024-02-23	3.78	6.01	-48.32	4494846	Downward Expansion	-89	96
2024-02-16	3.70	6.13	-49.41	9426963	Downward Expansion	-96	97
2024-02-09	4.38	6.23	-40.42	12286755	Downward Expansion	-94	91
2024-02-02	5.32	6.31	-28.53	2053795	Downward Expansion	-70	70
2024-01-26	5.50	6.36	-27.02	1798120	Downward Expansion	-64	59
2024-01-19	5.41	6.39	-27.08	2738726	Downward Expansion	-69	49
2024-01-12	5.71	6.42	-24.50	1785263	Downward Expansion	-49	29
2024-01-05	5.81	6.45	-23.31	1781863	Downward Expansion	-44	22
2023-12-29	6.03	6.47	-21.73	723592	Downward Expansion	-41	24
2023-12-22	6.07	6.51	-21.56	2008239	Downward Expansion	-54	37
2023-12-15	6.11	6.55	-21.66	3379402	Downward Expansion	-59	44
2023-12-08	5.65	6.61	-27.94	2773391	Downward Expansion	-66	52
2023-12-01	5.53	6.70	-28.39	3498082	Downward Expansion	-77	57
2023-11-24	5.87	6.79	-22.84	1626829	Downward Expansion	-67	46
2023-11-17	6.11	6.86	-19.49	2830985	Downward Expansion	-60	45
2023-11-10	5.79	6.92	-20.67	5726957	Downward Expansion	-79	62
2023-11-03	6.56	7.00	-10.43	2625101	Downward Expansion	-64	69
2023-10-27	6.01	7.04	-15.68	2451260	Downward Expansion	-72	85
2023-10-20	5.79	7.09	-19.74	2281869	Downward Expansion	-86	88
2023-10-13	6.16	7.15	-17.29	2737204	Downward Expansion	-79	78

Price vs TrendBelow-7.8%

Trend directionFalling-5.8%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-35.3%

Fair Value directionMoving away-4.1%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-19.5%

Relative strength directionImproving+3.0%

Price momentumPositive+1.7%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.07×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-42 / ±100

-71.5 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

57 /100

+43.7 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

PBB Directional State ↗ PBB Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance33

Rotation Up20

Upward Expansion22

Deceleration41

Rotation Down67

Downward Expansion59

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 36%Rotation Up 8%Upward Expansion 5%Deceleration 5%Rotation Down 1%Downward Expansion 46%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Down	2026-09-25	2026-10-02	New	-3.0%
Balance	2026-06-05	2026-09-18	Established	-3.5%
Downward Expansion	2025-10-03	2026-05-29	Extended	-28.1%
Balance	2025-04-04	2025-09-26	Established	+2.5%
Rotation Up	2025-02-14	2025-03-28	Developing	-3.3%
Balance	2025-01-31	2025-02-07	New	+1.6%
Downward Expansion	2024-12-20	2025-01-24	Developing	+13.4%
Balance	2024-11-01	2024-12-13	Developing	-3.6%
Upward Expansion	2024-09-27	2024-10-25	Developing	-7.3%
Deceleration	2024-08-23	2024-09-20	Developing	+15.1%
Balance	2024-08-09	2024-08-16	New	-1.1%
Upward Expansion	2024-07-26	2024-08-02	New	-5.3%
Deceleration	2024-07-05	2024-07-19	New	-0.4%
Rotation Up	2024-05-31	2024-06-28	Developing	-11.8%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing57

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution19

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^GDAXI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 99/100
Current Relative Strength: -19.49
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +1.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -7.2%
Financial Services regime cohort: 33th percentile6 in cohort

Test PBB trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.93×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.07×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+50.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore PBB Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 3.17falling

Slow Activity EUR 3.36falling

Trend Reference EUR 3.31-7.8% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 4.72-35.3% close margin

Structural low EUR 2.96shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Complete bearish ordering below the Trend Line confirms Downward Expansion; a repaired fast/slow cross and upside acceptance cancel the failure.

Range context +7.4%

Annualized volatility +41.8%

From structural high -41.5%

From structural low +12.7%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^GDAXI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	5	+5.4%+1.2% to +27.2%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+3.9%	+20.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	4	+13.2%-17.1% to +29.9%	+75.0%	+25.0%	+14.0%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	3	+9.0%-13.1% to +31.5%	+66.7%	+33.3%	+9.4%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	-3.1%-21.6% to +15.3%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-4.5%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

PBB Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map