Weekly structural research · KSC · Consumer Defensive

033780 Stage Analysis

KT&G Corporation

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close KRW 174,300.00Tenure NewBenchmark ^KS11

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Upper balance after advance

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and expanding.

Direction -22−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 23/100directional strength

Maturity 2/100lifecycle context

Confidence 64/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedexpanding separation

Price acceptance -66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +47.0%KRW 118,554.03 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	174,300.00	173,450.69	-13.46	807721	Balance	-22	23
2026-09-18	172,000.00	173,077.36	-13.17	1027558	Deceleration	-16	23
2026-09-11	171,800.00	173,096.25	-14.30	1153951	Deceleration	3	15
2026-09-04	172,500.00	173,014.61	-11.87	1154527	Deceleration	4	11
2026-08-28	176,300.00	172,568.61	-12.17	740040	Deceleration	17	8
2026-08-21	172,300.00	171,690.62	-16.53	143949	Deceleration	12	7
2026-08-14	173,994.31	170,653.65	-17.40	416621	Deceleration	32	20
2026-08-07	186,648.44	169,475.75	-2.15	363224	Deceleration	61	36
2026-07-31	177,058.98	167,872.80	-12.71	502679	Deceleration	33	19
2026-07-24	180,519.09	166,531.04	-12.98	240836	Deceleration	40	21
2026-07-17	179,900.00	165,216.84	-15.61	1197028	Deceleration	34	22
2026-07-10	173,500.00	163,985.00	-26.47	333319	Deceleration	28	22
2026-07-03	175,100.00	162,800.85	-32.16	205416	Deceleration	35	19
2026-06-26	167,400.00	161,608.83	-38.35	253878	Upward Expansion	34	23
2026-06-19	180,000.00	160,754.68	-39.09	311038	Upward Expansion	60	45
2026-06-12	187,800.00	159,483.77	-30.02	306772	Upward Expansion	72	58
2026-06-05	179,300.00	157,858.68	-34.18	229262	Upward Expansion	64	55
2026-05-29	184,700.00	156,292.80	-35.46	1337772	Upward Expansion	69	69
2026-05-22	188,000.00	154,494.96	-29.89	1755368	Upward Expansion	79	81
2026-05-15	179,800.00	152,658.57	-30.58	2356982	Upward Expansion	69	79
2026-05-08	181,000.00	151,192.96	-30.93	1304130	Upward Expansion	75	83
2026-05-01	178,300.00	149,550.93	-23.53	739756	Upward Expansion	75	77
2026-04-24	176,200.00	147,972.92	-23.69	1453850	Upward Expansion	74	60
2026-04-17	171,300.00	146,568.84	-23.05	1249964	Deceleration	70	46
2026-04-10	164,300.00	145,396.30	-22.62	1285510	Deceleration	52	33
2026-04-03	156,300.00	144,262.22	-20.38	1690298	Deceleration	37	22
2026-03-27	158,000.00	143,443.53	-20.89	1037407	Deceleration	39	24
2026-03-20	157,500.00	142,551.92	-26.18	1422430	Upward Expansion	44	32
2026-03-13	153,000.00	141,748.44	-24.82	1522382	Upward Expansion	60	50
2026-03-06	154,700.00	140,946.49	-25.61	1526847	Upward Expansion	66	79
2026-02-27	163,100.00	140,521.85	-30.18	2702981	Upward Expansion	68	88
2026-02-20	172,566.55	139,235.35	-21.04	682981	Upward Expansion	91	97
2026-02-13	169,351.03	137,742.60	-18.55	1650044	Upward Expansion	93	96
2026-02-06	159,119.81	136,582.06	-17.49	1848297	Upward Expansion	87	83
2026-01-30	149,960.44	135,662.91	-24.59	2461949	Upward Expansion	76	52
2026-01-23	141,190.81	134,830.47	-26.11	1585616	Upward Expansion	44	22
2026-01-16	138,657.38	134,087.83	-25.59	1510883	Upward Expansion	37	20
2026-01-09	138,559.94	133,500.36	-21.91	1384224	Upward Expansion	40	26
2026-01-02	136,806.02	132,842.19	-18.35	649417	Upward Expansion	52	31
2025-12-26	141,093.38	132,210.35	-12.48	705097	Upward Expansion	58	39
2025-12-19	142,944.73	131,371.30	-9.25	1539739	Upward Expansion	65	48
2025-12-12	137,975.30	130,444.82	-15.73	1374507	Upward Expansion	56	55
2025-12-05	139,339.45	129,693.63	-13.91	963222	Upward Expansion	58	63
2025-11-28	141,775.45	128,848.75	-9.02	1741883	Upward Expansion	66	64
2025-11-21	141,872.89	127,851.94	-7.66	1673381	Deceleration	69	53
2025-11-14	139,047.14	126,752.23	-13.38	1547482	Deceleration	62	33
2025-11-07	132,323.77	125,640.63	-16.78	1645058	Deceleration	34	19
2025-10-31	130,764.72	124,624.56	-21.21	1128722	Deceleration	36	20
2025-10-24	132,908.41	123,564.01	-16.87	1102879	Deceleration	48	27
2025-10-17	135,831.61	122,435.22	-10.94	1849781	Deceleration	56	32
2025-10-10	131,739.12	121,141.48	-10.39	455552	Deceleration	40	27
2025-10-03	130,959.60	119,804.13	-9.38	1543376	Upward Expansion	50	31
2025-09-26	134,077.69	118,573.14	-2.78	2887099	Upward Expansion	55	36
2025-09-19	136,123.92	117,263.92	-2.92	1421863	Deceleration	63	40
2025-09-12	130,277.52	115,937.94	-5.67	2116490	Deceleration	44	33
2025-09-05	131,739.12	114,880.87	0.98	1560628	Upward Expansion	55	40
2025-08-29	131,251.92	113,858.38	1.23	1686721	Upward Expansion	59	49
2025-08-22	133,395.61	112,895.32	3.63	1832777	Upward Expansion	63	52
2025-08-15	128,941.34	111,715.81	-1.35	1942009	Upward Expansion	61	52
2025-08-08	141,960.84	110,684.77	9.45	2526009	Upward Expansion	88	70
2025-08-01	124,505.05	109,315.39	-0.83	1265282	Upward Expansion	64	62
2025-07-25	127,784.05	108,426.06	-0.27	1247009	Upward Expansion	66	79
2025-07-18	134,534.91	107,486.04	5.68	1285062	Upward Expansion	86	89
2025-07-11	131,545.25	106,321.00	4.35	1662142	Upward Expansion	88	85
2025-07-04	124,987.27	105,480.81	3.74	1779096	Upward Expansion	80	68
2025-06-27	118,911.50	104,957.95	-0.75	1863769	Upward Expansion	65	60
2025-06-20	121,033.20	104,751.75	2.65	1688577	Upward Expansion	77	68
2025-06-13	118,815.05	104,394.63	5.81	1735221	Upward Expansion	74	66
2025-06-06	117,850.65	104,077.50	8.70	1016274	Upward Expansion	75	77
2025-05-30	115,921.83	103,835.72	12.17	1729354	Upward Expansion	72	83
2025-05-23	115,150.30	103,365.15	16.79	1086293	Rotation Up	73	85
2025-05-16	115,439.62	102,969.66	16.42	1336905	Rotation Up	53	78
2025-05-09	113,993.02	102,416.44	18.02	1185107	Rotation Up	54	75
2025-05-02	111,871.32	101,769.54	17.45	935945	Rotation Up	44	66
2025-04-25	108,881.66	101,245.80	15.65	1386086	Rotation Up	38	47
2025-04-18	105,699.11	100,975.97	15.85	1170207	Downward Expansion	28	29
2025-04-11	101,841.48	100,756.70	14.61	1750062	Downward Expansion	-17	18
2025-04-04	98,948.26	100,801.75	10.57	1279836	Downward Expansion	-39	22
2025-03-28	99,044.70	100,940.16	7.21	1271279	Downward Expansion	-55	38
2025-03-21	97,019.44	100,976.63	2.05	1415012	Downward Expansion	-61	64
2025-03-14	91,618.76	101,052.85	-0.42	1256182	Downward Expansion	-74	74
2025-03-07	94,029.77	101,056.12	2.53	1221218	Balance	-66	63
2025-02-28	94,801.30	101,025.29	4.89	2561815	Balance	-38	41
2025-02-21	96,344.35	100,703.44	2.00	1056351	Balance	-33	19
2025-02-14	98,565.55	100,385.69	7.17	1059859	Balance	-7	8
2025-02-07	101,064.39	99,889.01	13.31	1334342	Balance	16	12
2025-01-31	102,360.09	99,219.56	15.50	305920	Balance	5	11
2025-01-24	98,010.24	98,522.35	10.24	667498	Balance	-2	17
2025-01-17	98,010.24	97,976.31	11.20	890634	Balance	-1	18
2025-01-10	100,879.30	97,334.72	15.28	1330647	Balance	5	19
2025-01-03	97,825.14	96,612.70	15.71	403009	Balance	10	19
2024-12-27	99,583.59	95,989.45	20.19	431964	Upward Expansion	24	18
2024-12-20	99,583.59	95,210.23	21.00	1423742	Upward Expansion	36	24
2024-12-13	106,339.73	94,519.23	25.31	1411803	Upward Expansion	58	43
2024-12-06	109,301.32	93,691.25	33.19	1220678	Upward Expansion	63	57
2024-11-29	112,725.66	92,804.11	36.86	1680398	Upward Expansion	73	76
2024-11-22	110,319.37	91,848.45	32.64	1814229	Upward Expansion	71	74
2024-11-15	109,301.32	90,875.65	36.99	1724160	Upward Expansion	71	69
2024-11-08	110,597.02	89,958.08	31.81	1344044	Upward Expansion	79	60
2024-11-01	101,804.78	88,957.77	23.01	790740	Deceleration	59	37
2024-10-25	103,285.59	88,326.59	23.39	925663	Deceleration	54	33
2024-10-18	98,843.20	87,728.19	18.11	1068504	Deceleration	42	27
2024-10-11	94,585.90	87,247.45	13.30	1183259	Upward Expansion	43	31
2024-10-04	96,159.25	86,911.66	16.79	1059190	Upward Expansion	60	50
2024-09-27	100,786.74	86,562.97	19.18	1801525	Upward Expansion	65	63
2024-09-20	99,120.84	86,032.65	20.31	987623	Upward Expansion	67	74
2024-09-13	103,193.04	85,557.87	26.72	2073241	Upward Expansion	79	91
2024-09-06	103,100.48	84,883.46	28.93	1985041	Upward Expansion	87	94
2024-08-30	100,138.89	84,215.17	19.88	2018740	Upward Expansion	88	95
2024-08-23	99,305.94	83,703.41	18.25	1918054	Upward Expansion	94	95
2024-08-16	91,716.86	83,067.30	9.85	1903090	Upward Expansion	80	86
2024-08-09	93,105.11	82,598.98	16.51	3154535	Rotation Up	91	86
2024-08-02	85,145.82	82,154.36	3.53	1150387	Rotation Up	32	55
2024-07-26	86,811.72	82,017.63	3.62	1753620	Balance	44	50
2024-07-19	83,665.02	81,767.58	-2.17	1288335	Balance	17	23
2024-07-12	80,981.09	81,607.87	-7.21	1048701	Downward Expansion	-27	19
2024-07-05	81,443.83	81,566.71	-6.80	1058791	Downward Expansion	-31	17
2024-06-28	81,628.92	81,492.67	-4.41	1447708	Rotation Down	-47	27
2024-06-21	78,762.45	81,371.75	-7.26	844111	Rotation Down	-32	55
2024-06-14	79,218.78	81,381.28	-5.82	1311292	Rotation Down	-33	58
2024-06-07	79,127.52	81,378.51	-4.59	1062362	Rotation Down	-31	56
2024-05-31	76,207.01	81,346.78	-4.98	1510541	Deceleration	-43	56
2024-05-24	78,853.71	81,345.52	-3.47	1214691	Deceleration	-30	26
2024-05-17	81,500.43	81,232.76	-1.50	1004517	Deceleration	4	5
2024-05-10	82,686.88	81,046.33	-0.09	803919	Deceleration	14	9
2024-05-03	84,055.88	80,820.34	3.56	757765	Deceleration	21	18
2024-04-26	81,135.36	80,499.28	0.86	693144	Deceleration	5	16
2024-04-19	81,774.22	80,304.65	4.25	883072	Deceleration	24	18
2024-04-12	80,587.76	80,117.81	-0.57	854050	Deceleration	24	15
2024-04-05	82,869.42	80,057.77	1.15	823209	Upward Expansion	43	29
2024-03-29	85,333.59	79,869.33	3.05	881354	Upward Expansion	61	43
2024-03-22	84,420.93	79,555.12	2.00	1042596	Upward Expansion	59	44
2024-03-15	84,512.20	79,268.42	5.21	1176356	Upward Expansion	62	55
2024-03-08	85,698.66	78,935.06	6.06	903946	Upward Expansion	73	71
2024-03-01	84,877.26	78,550.52	6.65	913732	Upward Expansion	70	71
2024-02-23	84,877.26	78,187.53	5.72	941436	Upward Expansion	73	76
2024-02-16	82,960.68	77,783.84	4.06	747123	Upward Expansion	64	68
2024-02-09	83,051.95	77,412.03	5.36	782218	Upward Expansion	67	54
2024-02-02	84,786.00	77,051.73	7.84	1533308	Upward Expansion	79	48
2024-01-26	80,222.71	76,590.00	7.69	731494	Upward Expansion	57	32
2024-01-19	77,667.27	76,324.00	4.44	1090557	Upward Expansion	42	27
2024-01-12	79,766.38	76,108.78	4.86	1043815	Upward Expansion	57	39
2024-01-05	81,044.10	75,815.00	4.26	1095486	Upward Expansion	70	48
2023-12-29	79,310.04	75,495.82	-1.07	1292423	Upward Expansion	59	43
2023-12-22	78,873.80	75,237.31	0.15	1019780	Upward Expansion	58	43
2023-12-15	79,746.29	75,001.94	2.45	1751744	Upward Expansion	66	54
2023-12-08	79,222.80	74,754.70	3.45	1079646	Upward Expansion	64	59
2023-12-01	78,001.30	74,539.23	2.25	1455955	Upward Expansion	59	61
2023-11-24	79,048.30	74,378.81	3.88	884141	Upward Expansion	67	67
2023-11-17	79,135.55	74,203.57	5.08	1402069	Upward Expansion	69	56
2023-11-10	78,175.80	74,065.55	6.43	1119466	Deceleration	64	37
2023-11-03	76,169.05	73,856.31	5.64	1119717	Deceleration	38	22
2023-10-27	75,471.05	73,708.24	7.57	855101	Deceleration	33	17
2023-10-20	75,907.31	73,597.76	4.83	1179747	Deceleration	35	19
2023-10-13	75,907.31	73,575.95	1.34	1090298	Upward Expansion	38	20
2023-10-06	74,424.06	73,677.41	1.23	1060929	Upward Expansion	44	30

Price vs TrendAbove+0.5%

Trend directionRising+5.0%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+47.0%

Fair Value directionMoving away-5.0%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-13.5%

Relative strength directionImproving+24.9%

Price momentumPositive+10.3%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.24×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-22 / ±100

-39.5 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

23 /100

+15.6 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

033780 Directional State ↗ 033780 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance56

Rotation Up22

Upward Expansion11

Deceleration51

Rotation Down49

Downward Expansion50

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 8%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 54%Deceleration 26%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 5%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-09-25	2026-09-25	New	+0.0%
Deceleration	2026-07-03	2026-09-18	Developing	-1.8%
Upward Expansion	2026-04-24	2026-06-26	Developing	-5.0%
Deceleration	2026-03-27	2026-04-17	New	+8.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-11-28	2026-03-20	Established	+11.1%
Deceleration	2025-10-10	2025-11-21	Developing	+7.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-26	2025-10-03	New	-2.3%
Deceleration	2025-09-12	2025-09-19	New	+4.5%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-30	2025-09-05	Established	+13.6%
Rotation Up	2025-04-25	2025-05-23	Developing	+5.8%
Downward Expansion	2025-03-14	2025-04-18	Developing	+15.4%
Balance	2025-01-03	2025-03-07	Developing	-3.9%
Upward Expansion	2024-11-08	2024-12-27	Developing	-10.0%
Deceleration	2024-10-18	2024-11-01	New	+3.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing28

Stage 2 · Advancing44

Stage 3 · Distribution68

Stage 4 · Declining35

Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3A · Churning. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^KS11

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 78/100
Current Relative Strength: -13.46
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +10.3%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -19.9%
Consumer Defensive regime cohort: 39th percentile18 in cohort

Test 033780 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.09×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.24×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 033780 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity KRW 173,080.00falling

Slow Activity KRW 175,959.73falling

Trend Reference KRW 173,450.69+0.5% close margin

Current Fair Value KRW 118,554.03+47.0% close margin

Structural low KRW 152,100.00shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +5.0%

Annualized volatility +24.7%

From structural high -8.3%

From structural low +35.4%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^KS11	Regime survived	Read
Near term	10	+2.9%-7.4% to +9.6%	+70.0%	+70.0%	+3.7%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	6	+3.4%-7.5% to +18.1%	+83.3%	+83.3%	+10.8%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+15.4%-2.4% to +37.3%	+80.0%	+80.0%	+17.7%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+22.6%+9.3% to +60.8%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+40.9%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

033780 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map