Weekly structural research ยท ASX ยท Industrials

TEA Stage Analysis

Tasmea Limited

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close AUD 10.50Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^AXJO
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Upward Expansion ยท Established expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

  • The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
  • Activity structure: moderate and contracting.
Direction 66โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 60/100directional strength
Maturity 75/100lifecycle context
Confidence 82/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Upstructural direction
Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation
Price acceptance +83.3%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context +155.4%AUD 4.11 ยท improving
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 128 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-10-0910.507.9266.533270465Upward Expansion6660
2026-10-0210.737.7074.071837687Upward Expansion7767
2026-09-2510.677.4876.984945690Upward Expansion8166
2026-09-1810.467.2575.6215634350Upward Expansion8365
2026-09-119.087.0355.255192446Upward Expansion6460
2026-09-049.806.8565.28544630Upward Expansion7484
2026-08-289.816.6466.821117871Upward Expansion7867
2026-08-219.306.4561.81325904Upward Expansion6757
2026-08-149.486.2866.82421137Upward Expansion7460
2026-08-078.736.1253.95233356Upward Expansion4952
2026-07-318.385.9654.87432957Upward Expansion5256
2026-07-249.165.8176.13354958Upward Expansion6966
2026-07-178.955.6575.45631028Upward Expansion6567
2026-07-108.785.4875.62419197Upward Expansion6782
2026-07-038.915.3381.25316175Upward Expansion6989
2026-06-269.575.18100.73541298Upward Expansion9197
2026-06-198.695.0285.33414381Upward Expansion8795
2026-06-128.604.8788.16789456Upward Expansion9397
2026-06-058.134.7685.887151113Upward Expansion9596
2026-05-296.964.6461.004916059Upward Expansion9092
2026-05-226.044.5743.352425985Upward Expansion7480
2026-05-156.074.5346.903031691Upward Expansion8287
2026-05-085.794.4840.372703568Upward Expansion7984
2026-05-015.404.4433.221515738Rotation Up7176
2026-04-245.554.4137.823293872Rotation Up5366
2026-04-175.184.3728.031858234Rotation Up4562
2026-04-104.774.3519.271207494Rotation Up2440
2026-04-034.534.3419.472016338Rotation Up1628
2026-03-275.034.3334.884138664Downward Expansion3434
2026-03-204.694.3028.882964318Downward Expansion-612
2026-03-133.864.275.042201860Downward Expansion-5431
2026-03-064.134.2810.073415198Downward Expansion-5540
2026-02-273.784.28-2.306624262Downward Expansion-6167
2026-02-203.764.27-1.128601587Downward Expansion-6170
2026-02-133.644.25-2.182563496Deceleration-4253
2026-02-063.594.24-0.892229782Deceleration-4529
2026-01-304.074.2310.552022956Deceleration-1913
2026-01-234.284.2117.123177429Deceleration1513
2026-01-164.434.1921.432257410Deceleration-1417
2026-01-093.974.1412.091925154Deceleration-2842
2026-01-024.084.1115.581007179Deceleration-423
2025-12-264.144.0717.541328999Deceleration-120
2025-12-194.044.0217.361930176Deceleration-216
2025-12-124.233.9822.413070762Deceleration2120
2025-12-054.373.9228.563348956Upward Expansion3824
2025-11-284.663.8638.803847825Upward Expansion4533
2025-11-214.383.7934.936636188Upward Expansion5744
2025-11-145.113.7255.102078319Upward Expansion7662
2025-11-074.723.6242.951545595Upward Expansion6355
2025-10-314.93โ€”โ€”2641457Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-244.83โ€”โ€”1711298Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-174.48โ€”โ€”3478424Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-104.58โ€”โ€”2108419Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-034.60โ€”โ€”1802831Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-264.36โ€”โ€”1534531Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-194.56โ€”โ€”2192937Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-124.41โ€”โ€”3791057Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-054.29โ€”โ€”2063740Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-293.90โ€”โ€”2241525Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-224.07โ€”โ€”1505689Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-154.05โ€”โ€”2175829Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-084.00โ€”โ€”2283265Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-013.63โ€”โ€”2651614Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-253.21โ€”โ€”1851541Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-183.36โ€”โ€”977115Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-113.24โ€”โ€”1030847Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-043.37โ€”โ€”1989515Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-273.60โ€”โ€”2838744Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-203.07โ€”โ€”910821Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-132.99โ€”โ€”1560022Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-062.84โ€”โ€”1740087Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-302.76โ€”โ€”984562Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-232.71โ€”โ€”700564Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-162.59โ€”โ€”1295716Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-092.45โ€”โ€”429609Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-022.47โ€”โ€”801200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-252.31โ€”โ€”460961Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-182.32โ€”โ€”810298Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-112.45โ€”โ€”1892989Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-042.20โ€”โ€”1865274Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-282.33โ€”โ€”1502564Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-212.25โ€”โ€”1275151Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-142.29โ€”โ€”1230345Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-072.30โ€”โ€”1477703Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-282.58โ€”โ€”1770285Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-212.97โ€”โ€”356664Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-142.94โ€”โ€”379182Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-073.01โ€”โ€”594798Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-312.92โ€”โ€”1136922Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-242.72โ€”โ€”593734Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-172.73โ€”โ€”843431Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-102.87โ€”โ€”542897Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-032.72โ€”โ€”167159Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-272.87โ€”โ€”286831Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-202.75โ€”โ€”588439Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-132.71โ€”โ€”1700950Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-062.61โ€”โ€”1675953Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-292.71โ€”โ€”925379Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-222.57โ€”โ€”1915562Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-152.74โ€”โ€”987156Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-082.82โ€”โ€”1434247Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-012.63โ€”โ€”1590609Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-252.57โ€”โ€”872426Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-182.34โ€”โ€”2173042Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-112.18โ€”โ€”2032915Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-042.07โ€”โ€”1343548Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-271.87โ€”โ€”1097982Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-201.87โ€”โ€”1322831Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-131.76โ€”โ€”3099813Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-061.59โ€”โ€”700386Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-301.56โ€”โ€”2707660Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-231.46โ€”โ€”701255Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-161.42โ€”โ€”501756Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-091.45โ€”โ€”364129Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-021.47โ€”โ€”895364Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-261.51โ€”โ€”1099542Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-191.52โ€”โ€”2223388Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-121.40โ€”โ€”1453118Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-051.31โ€”โ€”498589Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-281.34โ€”โ€”916228Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-211.34โ€”โ€”1434504Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-141.33โ€”โ€”387335Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-071.38โ€”โ€”885803Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-311.31โ€”โ€”1388057Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-241.32โ€”โ€”975200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-171.40โ€”โ€”1108961Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-101.46โ€”โ€”2195301Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-031.40โ€”โ€”7935544Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
Price vs TrendAbove+32.5%
Trend directionRising+33.0%
Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+155.4%
Fair Value directionClosing upward+3.7%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+66.5%
Relative strength directionWeakening-9.1%
Price momentumPositive+120.1%
Volume balanceDemand-led2.58ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

66 / ยฑ100

+1.9 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

60 /100

-0.5 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance11
Rotation Up71
Upward Expansion85
Deceleration61
Rotation Down15
Downward Expansion9

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2024-05-03 to 2026-10-09 ยท 49 classified observations out of 128 shown.

Rotation Up 10%Upward Expansion 57%Deceleration 20%Downward Expansion 12%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Upward Expansion2026-05-082026-10-09Established+81.4%
Rotation Up2026-04-032026-05-01Developing+19.2%
Downward Expansion2026-02-202026-03-27Developing+33.8%
Deceleration2025-12-122026-02-13Developing-13.8%
Upward Expansion2025-11-072025-12-05Developing-7.4%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing7
Stage 2 ยท Advancing100
Stage 3 ยท Distribution63
Stage 4 ยท Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 ยท Stage 2C ยท Late advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AXJO

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation
98/100
Current Relative Strength
66.53
Relative Strength direction
Weakening
Price momentum
+120.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark
+122.8%
Industrials regime cohort
68th percentile31 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume1.32ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume2.58ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity AUD 10.50rising
Slow Activity AUD 8.99rising
Trend Reference AUD 7.92+32.5% close margin
Current Fair Value AUD 4.11+155.4% close margin
Structural low AUD 4.71shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +8.3%
Annualized volatility +45.9%
From structural high -10.8%
From structural low +237.0%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^AXJO Regime survived Read
Near term7+8.8%-7.4% to +40.4%+57.1%+57.1%+7.1%+85.7%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate2+13.5%-23.9% to +50.8%+50.0%+50.0%+10.8%+50.0%Too little matched history
Extended1+22.6%+22.6% to +22.6%+100.0%+100.0%+22.9%+100.0%Too little matched history
Full cycle0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context