Weekly structural research · VIE · Consumer Cyclical

TSLA Stage Analysis

Tesla, Inc.

Week ending 18 Sep 2026Close EUR 316.05Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^ATX

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction -34−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 22/100directional strength

Maturity 74/100lifecycle context

Confidence 65/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +0.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +13.8%EUR 277.79 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-18	316.05	327.67	-25.01	1829	Downward Expansion	-34	22
2026-09-11	315.30	328.73	-26.85	1228	Downward Expansion	-38	24
2026-09-04	303.70	329.95	-29.81	1512	Downward Expansion	-46	35
2026-08-28	303.35	331.41	-29.59	1573	Downward Expansion	-60	50
2026-08-21	307.40	333.62	-27.38	441	Downward Expansion	-66	82
2026-08-14	290.95	336.10	-32.57	187	Downward Expansion	-65	87
2026-08-07	288.55	339.04	-32.63	197	Downward Expansion	-67	85
2026-07-31	265.90	342.10	-36.37	542	Downward Expansion	-88	87
2026-07-24	273.20	345.83	-34.96	529	Downward Expansion	-83	69
2026-07-17	333.10	350.50	-19.96	213	Balance	-34	18
2026-07-10	358.50	353.09	-15.71	566	Balance	-17	11
2026-07-03	349.60	353.78	-18.90	277	Balance	-28	19
2026-06-26	338.80	355.08	-19.59	627	Balance	-32	21
2026-06-19	346.15	356.13	-19.62	181	Balance	-18	11
2026-06-12	344.40	355.91	-16.85	630	Rotation Up	-4	13
2026-06-05	348.55	356.18	-13.65	357	Rotation Up	19	27
2026-05-29	371.80	356.89	-8.92	2152	Rotation Up	25	34
2026-05-22	369.05	357.61	-7.39	2367	Downward Expansion	23	28
2026-05-15	367.15	357.95	-6.10	2465	Downward Expansion	-8	16
2026-05-08	364.60	358.10	-7.33	4404	Downward Expansion	-18	18
2026-05-01	323.35	357.99	-16.54	1985	Downward Expansion	-56	38
2026-04-24	321.70	359.45	-16.51	2784	Downward Expansion	-60	43
2026-04-17	346.05	360.95	-13.39	2244	Downward Expansion	-60	51
2026-04-10	294.60	361.44	-24.35	4076	Downward Expansion	-82	84
2026-04-03	316.70	362.67	-13.54	3392	Downward Expansion	-71	72
2026-03-27	316.25	362.01	-10.64	3652	Rotation Down	-74	66
2026-03-20	325.15	361.09	-6.74	2480	Rotation Down	-46	54
2026-03-13	345.60	359.80	-1.90	3749	Rotation Down	-32	43
2026-03-06	343.80	357.76	-4.60	4061	Rotation Down	-34	51
2026-02-27	340.75	355.82	-10.15	1937	Balance	-29	46
2026-02-20	347.85	353.28	-10.14	2355	Balance	-5	22
2026-02-13	351.90	350.72	-6.69	2385	Balance	-1	15
2026-02-06	347.65	348.36	-9.03	3983	Balance	-1	10
2026-01-30	369.50	345.53	-3.12	3649	Upward Expansion	32	17
2026-01-23	381.90	341.93	0.62	3110	Upward Expansion	36	19
2026-01-16	379.05	338.48	-0.17	6660	Upward Expansion	52	33
2026-01-09	380.55	335.10	0.30	4488	Upward Expansion	58	44
2026-01-02	377.65	331.64	-0.42	2168	Upward Expansion	62	61
2025-12-26	413.25	327.88	10.11	2208	Upward Expansion	74	75
2025-12-19	410.90	324.70	8.66	4841	Upward Expansion	77	61
2025-12-12	379.05	320.90	1.74	3213	Deceleration	59	38
2025-12-05	388.60	318.69	3.73	3540	Deceleration	56	32
2025-11-28	370.40	314.55	-0.30	3265	Deceleration	45	27
2025-11-21	339.65	310.61	-4.79	2560	Upward Expansion	45	33
2025-11-14	352.45	307.54	-3.13	2490	Upward Expansion	60	49
2025-11-07	369.80	302.84	3.39	8303	Upward Expansion	65	61
2025-10-31	393.45	297.70	8.62	3331	Upward Expansion	80	70
2025-10-24	379.35	291.99	8.37	4646	Upward Expansion	75	72
2025-10-17	371.60	287.47	8.54	342	Upward Expansion	72	86
2025-10-10	361.10	282.67	4.14	1461	Upward Expansion	68	87
2025-10-03	367.20	278.20	4.48	1654	Upward Expansion	80	92
2025-09-26	366.85	273.79	7.09	3492	Upward Expansion	89	95
2025-09-19	360.55	270.82	6.27	4699	Upward Expansion	91	88
2025-09-12	331.55	269.84	-2.20	1776	Upward Expansion	85	76
2025-09-05	296.95	269.96	-11.13	1766	Upward Expansion	60	55
2025-08-29	288.55	272.01	-13.73	1827	Balance	52	46
2025-08-22	286.60	275.72	-17.13	1146	Balance	23	27
2025-08-15	284.50	279.29	-18.60	1062	Balance	1	8
2025-08-08	285.55	283.84	-16.03	1479	Balance	-9	6
2025-08-01	264.50	286.98	-17.40	1779	Balance	-36	17
2025-07-25	270.90	290.96	-17.48	2641	Balance	-31	17
2025-07-18	281.25	295.97	-12.50	2732	Balance	-26	16
2025-07-11	262.85	300.71	-18.13	3196	Balance	-38	23
2025-07-04	261.50	305.51	-16.78	4176	Balance	-34	21
2025-06-27	278.25	308.66	-12.19	7070	Balance	-25	18
2025-06-20	277.65	310.12	-10.42	4695	Balance	-11	10
2025-06-13	276.65	312.16	-10.76	7407	Balance	-8	15
2025-06-06	264.85	313.18	-16.01	5363	Balance	-6	24
2025-05-30	317.85	314.20	1.71	3732	Downward Expansion	11	30
2025-05-23	297.15	311.25	-3.24	6479	Downward Expansion	-18	27
2025-05-16	312.60	309.59	1.20	4396	Downward Expansion	-18	26
2025-05-09	264.30	305.98	-11.25	5544	Downward Expansion	-46	35
2025-05-02	252.30	303.87	-10.89	5801	Downward Expansion	-50	45
2025-04-25	247.70	302.98	-10.89	3497	Downward Expansion	-63	55
2025-04-18	211.45	302.39	-20.75	2602	Rotation Down	-72	64
2025-04-11	215.30	302.47	-14.62	11596	Rotation Down	-45	64
2025-04-04	222.25	302.24	-12.65	5756	Rotation Down	-45	75
2025-03-28	243.85	301.36	-13.22	3373	Rotation Down	-31	72
2025-03-21	227.65	299.53	-20.30	3717	Rotation Down	-41	77
2025-03-14	226.95	298.45	-21.06	4206	Rotation Down	-46	73
2025-03-07	234.85	297.40	-17.96	4853	Deceleration	-46	50
2025-02-28	277.80	295.61	0.60	2572	Deceleration	-16	30
2025-02-21	331.05	292.75	23.24	2970	Deceleration	27	25
2025-02-14	335.20	288.38	24.76	3703	Deceleration	39	25
2025-02-07	358.45	284.56	41.56	3164	Upward Expansion	47	41
2025-01-31	400.00	280.23	60.46	3552	Upward Expansion	61	51
2025-01-24	393.60	274.56	61.28	2718	Upward Expansion	61	55
2025-01-17	421.00	267.69	78.34	2873	Upward Expansion	74	65
2025-01-10	379.70	259.34	69.34	2590	Upward Expansion	66	65
2025-01-03	383.85	252.28	73.64	2611	Upward Expansion	68	68
2024-12-27	421.15	244.98	94.16	3280	Upward Expansion	81	90
2024-12-20	423.65	236.33	100.70	8931	Upward Expansion	90	92
2024-12-13	406.70	227.69	92.74	4230	Upward Expansion	94	97
2024-12-06	356.05	219.59	74.26	1527	Upward Expansion	86	94
2024-11-29	321.95	212.96	61.22	535	Upward Expansion	76	91
2024-11-22	338.90	207.79	71.51	1133	Upward Expansion	92	96
2024-11-15	307.25	201.82	56.03	2720	Upward Expansion	89	93
2024-11-08	295.45	196.26	51.34	3063	Upward Expansion	91	85
2024-11-01	229.30	191.81	19.08	1218	Upward Expansion	62	42
2024-10-25	247.35	189.14	26.51	966	Upward Expansion	80	53
2024-10-18	204.30	186.37	3.35	566	Upward Expansion	55	39
2024-10-11	201.20	184.78	1.80	1195	Upward Expansion	57	57
2024-10-04	225.45	183.04	13.40	702	Upward Expansion	66	70
2024-09-27	229.90	180.85	13.83	895	Upward Expansion	70	59
2024-09-20	214.00	179.37	6.47	317	Deceleration	59	34
2024-09-13	208.35	178.23	3.43	942	Deceleration	55	28
2024-09-06	195.76	177.52	-3.01	981	Deceleration	32	17
2024-08-30	188.94	176.90	-10.74	434	Deceleration	30	20
2024-08-23	195.38	176.27	-7.38	797	Deceleration	33	23
2024-08-16	195.42	175.42	-6.30	1198	Deceleration	36	24
2024-08-09	181.26	175.32	-11.75	5755	Upward Expansion	43	27
2024-08-02	191.94	176.00	-6.23	710	Upward Expansion	62	54
2024-07-26	200.05	176.86	-6.71	1713	Rotation Up	67	82
2024-07-19	220.45	177.86	2.13	1156	Rotation Up	45	78
2024-07-12	228.50	178.25	4.42	1371	Rotation Up	59	79
2024-07-05	229.85	178.31	4.39	2865	Rotation Up	53	69
2024-06-28	187.74	178.23	-12.94	865	Balance	14	21
2024-06-21	170.52	179.24	-21.16	623	Balance	-9	9
2024-06-14	167.74	180.80	-21.93	1546	Balance	-19	12
2024-06-07	165.02	182.44	-26.43	674	Balance	-30	16
2024-05-31	161.54	183.51	-29.17	806	Downward Expansion	-33	19
2024-05-24	164.48	184.99	-29.46	486	Downward Expansion	-34	19
2024-05-17	163.70	186.10	-30.16	761	Deceleration	-38	23
2024-05-10	157.04	187.30	-32.03	853	Deceleration	-44	34
2024-05-03	167.00	190.11	-25.94	1261	Downward Expansion	-45	35
2024-04-26	159.74	192.56	-28.28	2335	Downward Expansion	-60	50
2024-04-19	140.40	195.16	-36.76	2010	Downward Expansion	-78	60
2024-04-12	162.06	198.46	-27.51	923	Downward Expansion	-63	55
2024-04-05	149.00	201.62	-33.69	970	Downward Expansion	-74	76
2024-03-29	164.32	204.55	-26.48	636	Downward Expansion	-64	73
2024-03-22	156.80	206.73	-29.36	1044	Downward Expansion	-70	71
2024-03-15	148.70	208.73	-31.53	1210	Downward Expansion	-85	68
2024-03-08	159.94	210.31	-25.90	1274	Downward Expansion	-81	59
2024-03-01	185.58	212.30	-14.05	2046	Downward Expansion	-61	51
2024-02-23	179.54	213.94	-16.94	777	Downward Expansion	-65	76
2024-02-16	187.20	215.95	-13.97	716	Downward Expansion	-67	86
2024-02-09	177.26	217.56	-17.33	1372	Downward Expansion	-69	88
2024-02-02	169.96	219.95	-22.64	1756	Downward Expansion	-84	92
2024-01-26	169.84	222.73	-23.13	2496	Downward Expansion	-86	85
2024-01-19	192.28	225.12	-10.01	3045	Balance	-72	62
2024-01-12	201.80	226.57	-6.48	453	Balance	-47	22
2024-01-05	217.70	227.74	0.76	756	Balance	-15	15
2023-12-29	230.15	228.13	7.42	269	Balance	15	21
2023-12-22	232.05	227.21	10.23	546	Balance	7	17
2023-12-15	230.35	225.44	11.67	515	Balance	-15	18
2023-12-08	227.50	223.27	12.72	256	Balance	2	10
2023-12-01	217.90	220.91	8.62	535	Rotation Down	-13	14
2023-11-24	217.50	218.48	10.82	262	Rotation Down	-27	25
2023-11-17	217.00	216.13	10.33	1120	Rotation Down	-30	49
2023-11-10	196.98	213.88	2.78	448	Rotation Down	-39	50
2023-11-03	205.90	212.89	8.18	1707	Upward Expansion	-22	32
2023-10-27	197.94	211.62	9.55	1180	Upward Expansion	-13	23
2023-10-20	199.44	211.23	9.49	646	Upward Expansion	-5	8
2023-10-13	241.45	210.43	27.32	249	Upward Expansion	52	35
2023-10-06	240.60	208.01	27.89	448	Upward Expansion	56	54
2023-09-29	237.60	205.56	24.08	479	Upward Expansion	57	60

Price vs TrendBelow-3.5%

Trend directionFalling-7.2%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+13.8%

Fair Value directionMoving away-13.8%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-25.0%

Relative strength directionWeakening-5.4%

Price momentumNegative-2.8%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.79×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-34 / ±100

+31.6 points since 2026-08-21

Energy

22 /100

-60.2 points since 2026-08-21

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

TSLA Directional State ↗ TSLA Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance47

Rotation Up29

Upward Expansion20

Deceleration47

Rotation Down21

Downward Expansion54

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-29 to 2026-09-18 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 21%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 30%Deceleration 10%Rotation Down 9%Downward Expansion 26%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-07-24	2026-09-18	Developing	+15.7%
Balance	2026-06-19	2026-07-17	Developing	-3.8%
Rotation Up	2026-05-29	2026-06-12	New	-7.4%
Downward Expansion	2026-04-03	2026-05-22	Developing	+16.5%
Rotation Down	2026-03-06	2026-03-27	New	-8.0%
Balance	2026-02-06	2026-02-27	New	-2.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-12-19	2026-01-30	Developing	-10.1%
Deceleration	2025-11-28	2025-12-12	New	+2.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-05	2025-11-21	Developing	+14.4%
Balance	2025-06-06	2025-08-29	Established	+8.9%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-25	2025-05-30	Developing	+28.3%
Rotation Down	2025-03-14	2025-04-18	Developing	-6.8%
Deceleration	2025-02-14	2025-03-07	New	-29.9%
Upward Expansion	2024-09-27	2025-02-07	Established	+55.9%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing30

Stage 2 · Advancing10

Stage 3 · Distribution52

Stage 4 · Declining90

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^ATX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 75/100
Current Relative Strength: -25.01
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -2.8%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -33.7%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 5th percentile38 in cohort

Test TSLA trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.64×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.79×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore TSLA Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 311.11rising

Slow Activity EUR 321.27falling

Trend Reference EUR 327.67-3.5% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 277.79+13.8% close margin

Structural low EUR 265.00shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +6.6%

Annualized volatility +48.0%

From structural high -25.4%

From structural low +19.3%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^ATX	Regime survived	Read
Near term	20	+3.7%-33.5% to +53.6%	+65.0%	+35.0%	+7.3%	+65.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	8	+9.9%-30.1% to +40.3%	+62.5%	+37.5%	-3.1%	+25.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	+10.0%-25.4% to +53.1%	+75.0%	+25.0%	+9.6%	+25.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	+29.9%-23.8% to +131.7%	+66.7%	+33.3%	-11.8%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

TSLA Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map