Weekly structural research · MEX · Technology

AAPL Stage Analysis

Apple Inc.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close MXN 6,032.36Tenure NewBenchmark ^MXX

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Re-accelerating

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction 84−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 80/100directional strength

Maturity 18/100lifecycle context

Confidence 78/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance +83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +40.9%MXN 4,281.68 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	6,032.36	5,158.18	22.79	58373	Upward Expansion	84	80
2026-09-18	5,780.01	5,109.18	21.20	27984	Upward Expansion	74	55
2026-09-11	5,640.98	5,067.34	17.79	43945	Deceleration	67	38
2026-09-04	5,415.56	5,025.83	11.98	28519	Deceleration	35	20
2026-08-28	5,448.78	5,005.32	11.87	21505	Deceleration	38	25
2026-08-21	5,238.22	4,975.35	7.41	7869	Deceleration	33	28
2026-08-14	5,210.84	4,944.53	9.29	53504	Upward Expansion	44	31
2026-08-07	5,370.15	4,920.84	8.54	5242	Upward Expansion	63	58
2026-07-31	5,325.15	4,897.33	7.82	38622	Upward Expansion	64	77
2026-07-24	5,810.96	4,881.28	19.02	13336	Upward Expansion	80	91
2026-07-17	5,854.71	4,850.69	20.04	2353	Upward Expansion	87	84
2026-07-10	5,528.52	4,817.89	14.12	853	Deceleration	78	53
2026-07-03	5,399.99	4,800.73	10.93	264	Deceleration	61	35
2026-06-26	4,969.20	4,789.43	2.15	5200	Upward Expansion	45	31
2026-06-19	5,084.07	4,792.44	3.99	185	Upward Expansion	62	52
2026-06-12	5,006.38	4,790.46	2.21	5423	Upward Expansion	67	76
2026-06-05	5,388.47	4,790.20	13.30	4544	Upward Expansion	75	91
2026-05-29	5,412.64	4,775.56	10.17	26695	Rotation Up	86	94
2026-05-22	5,341.07	4,763.02	9.46	24014	Rotation Up	62	82
2026-05-15	5,208.05	4,746.72	7.69	27852	Rotation Up	50	72
2026-05-08	5,048.82	4,728.14	1.74	75033	Balance	42	51
2026-05-01	4,762.49	4,711.60	-1.10	19485	Balance	1	14
2026-04-24	4,712.36	4,710.93	-4.12	29443	Balance	-8	11
2026-04-17	4,679.91	4,710.12	-5.69	46837	Downward Expansion	-29	14
2026-04-10	4,500.72	4,704.48	-9.70	33440	Downward Expansion	-51	30
2026-04-03	4,555.69	4,698.12	-8.52	7453	Downward Expansion	-50	31
2026-03-27	4,503.76	4,695.93	-5.72	16730	Downward Expansion	-53	35
2026-03-20	4,438.21	4,690.07	-3.81	13463	Downward Expansion	-63	37
2026-03-13	4,497.89	4,683.34	-5.13	14109	Deceleration	-28	23
2026-03-06	4,579.55	4,678.03	-6.11	29979	Deceleration	-16	22
2026-02-27	4,562.27	4,667.44	-12.37	29487	Deceleration	-24	21
2026-02-20	4,524.86	4,642.97	-13.81	14767	Rotation Down	-29	26
2026-02-13	4,395.49	4,624.31	-16.97	33874	Rotation Down	-37	44
2026-02-06	4,800.34	4,609.26	-9.18	72610	Rotation Down	-18	39
2026-01-30	4,549.74	4,580.39	-10.31	46698	Rotation Down	-26	54
2026-01-23	4,313.57	4,561.37	-16.30	55531	Deceleration	-48	51
2026-01-16	4,500.31	4,543.89	-11.86	48629	Deceleration	-17	28
2026-01-09	4,664.86	4,521.81	-7.81	58941	Deceleration	18	22
2026-01-02	4,843.68	4,490.14	-2.10	4775	Deceleration	41	29
2025-12-26	4,893.17	4,458.89	-4.00	18488	Upward Expansion	48	41
2025-12-19	4,870.68	4,425.53	-2.68	29955	Upward Expansion	52	48
2025-12-12	5,013.74	4,388.56	-1.61	34528	Upward Expansion	65	61
2025-12-05	5,060.90	4,358.70	0.93	32569	Upward Expansion	70	65
2025-11-28	5,059.46	4,318.79	0.17	23847	Upward Expansion	72	78
2025-11-21	5,024.89	4,283.78	1.82	11542	Upward Expansion	72	85
2025-11-14	4,998.46	4,252.14	0.25	19269	Upward Expansion	73	86
2025-11-07	4,949.27	4,214.31	-2.62	43671	Upward Expansion	74	84
2025-10-31	5,036.39	4,183.51	-0.20	60737	Upward Expansion	85	69
2025-10-24	4,852.05	4,144.38	-1.51	38892	Upward Expansion	79	70
2025-10-17	4,650.84	4,130.99	-6.73	17621	Upward Expansion	66	73
2025-10-10	4,552.39	4,122.58	-7.22	32807	Upward Expansion	65	77
2025-10-03	4,742.51	4,112.51	-5.75	31695	Upward Expansion	81	84
2025-09-26	4,688.09	4,115.69	-7.45	79617	Rotation Up	83	80
2025-09-19	4,510.60	4,123.23	-9.55	72403	Rotation Up	49	64
2025-09-12	4,309.91	4,140.12	-14.67	84582	Rotation Up	37	59
2025-09-05	4,490.19	4,161.78	-9.43	41249	Rotation Up	52	72
2025-08-29	4,327.70	4,168.00	-10.33	38711	Rotation Up	34	60
2025-08-22	4,236.37	4,185.81	-13.22	40266	Balance	26	44
2025-08-15	4,338.64	4,195.03	-9.95	47608	Balance	17	26
2025-08-08	4,261.98	4,209.32	-11.23	293641	Downward Expansion	7	12
2025-08-01	3,827.93	4,230.64	-18.69	53214	Downward Expansion	-45	26
2025-07-25	3,965.11	4,270.22	-16.66	82572	Downward Expansion	-34	20
2025-07-18	3,944.07	4,310.62	-15.69	24984	Downward Expansion	-39	26
2025-07-11	3,934.13	4,348.55	-16.49	67682	Downward Expansion	-42	31
2025-07-04	3,979.12	4,383.86	-17.63	115009	Downward Expansion	-56	41
2025-06-27	3,789.36	4,414.44	-20.93	41807	Downward Expansion	-60	45
2025-06-20	3,837.81	4,449.74	-18.47	69464	Downward Expansion	-58	47
2025-06-13	3,714.70	4,478.61	-22.76	69822	Downward Expansion	-70	58
2025-06-06	3,906.37	4,507.67	-19.84	34074	Downward Expansion	-57	42
2025-05-30	3,892.20	4,530.07	-19.84	74615	Downward Expansion	-59	44
2025-05-23	3,761.69	4,550.85	-23.13	46509	Downward Expansion	-69	48
2025-05-16	4,118.00	4,579.76	-15.10	50920	Downward Expansion	-58	44
2025-05-09	3,863.55	4,598.26	-18.02	74459	Downward Expansion	-69	56
2025-05-02	4,009.02	4,616.26	-13.50	49729	Downward Expansion	-63	61
2025-04-25	4,075.67	4,628.07	-13.12	82720	Downward Expansion	-65	73
2025-04-18	3,863.57	4,641.75	-11.45	17961	Downward Expansion	-76	79
2025-04-11	4,025.21	4,663.25	-4.52	153357	Rotation Down	-72	77
2025-04-04	3,862.64	4,671.90	-7.73	82524	Rotation Down	-58	73
2025-03-28	4,450.44	4,690.47	3.53	33271	Rotation Down	-23	46
2025-03-21	4,398.50	4,692.27	4.13	30909	Deceleration	-27	40
2025-03-14	4,250.24	4,689.85	1.77	74651	Deceleration	-32	20
2025-03-07	4,838.03	4,688.48	15.91	91994	Deceleration	36	26
2025-02-28	4,914.31	4,662.98	20.04	35164	Deceleration	36	26
2025-02-21	5,017.08	4,640.05	20.48	34529	Deceleration	57	32
2025-02-14	4,959.79	4,606.56	19.49	53773	Deceleration	38	22
2025-02-07	4,676.83	4,576.54	16.45	41416	Deceleration	15	21
2025-01-31	4,861.98	4,556.18	25.89	115873	Deceleration	27	25
2025-01-24	4,512.93	4,530.16	17.72	104245	Upward Expansion	13	19
2025-01-17	4,767.36	4,509.32	28.88	86250	Upward Expansion	49	41
2025-01-10	4,901.55	4,476.93	34.70	30021	Upward Expansion	64	58
2025-01-03	5,015.26	4,443.96	41.20	20119	Upward Expansion	67	81
2024-12-27	5,177.07	4,397.21	46.64	27420	Upward Expansion	82	91
2024-12-20	5,082.01	4,332.78	44.96	53201	Upward Expansion	82	89
2024-12-13	4,993.45	4,269.01	38.53	15822	Upward Expansion	80	82
2024-12-06	4,896.52	4,207.66	37.97	59900	Upward Expansion	76	70
2024-11-29	4,848.34	4,146.77	42.13	129331	Upward Expansion	77	55
2024-11-22	4,704.13	4,088.95	37.61	161522	Upward Expansion	69	47
2024-11-15	4,586.43	4,029.22	35.30	23518	Upward Expansion	59	44
2024-11-08	4,578.44	3,970.50	32.57	41919	Upward Expansion	60	49
2024-11-01	4,515.35	3,915.76	34.85	54578	Upward Expansion	59	48
2024-10-25	4,629.01	3,858.33	36.30	11688	Upward Expansion	69	53
2024-10-18	4,673.14	3,799.79	35.46	19264	Upward Expansion	75	56
2024-10-11	4,403.36	3,740.23	30.05	40895	Upward Expansion	59	49
2024-10-04	4,363.45	3,689.11	29.07	44291	Upward Expansion	62	53
2024-09-27	4,486.22	3,639.59	32.99	34539	Upward Expansion	70	62
2024-09-20	4,508.29	3,591.96	36.23	29099	Upward Expansion	75	69
2024-09-13	4,284.99	3,545.76	31.03	18328	Upward Expansion	65	68
2024-09-06	4,419.69	3,506.24	38.66	37249	Upward Expansion	71	65
2024-08-30	4,504.45	3,466.35	37.57	27094	Upward Expansion	79	66
2024-08-23	4,325.66	3,422.65	31.67	186481	Upward Expansion	75	64
2024-08-16	4,209.30	3,388.20	27.71	32396	Upward Expansion	71	63
2024-08-09	4,073.02	3,357.08	26.86	82665	Upward Expansion	65	63
2024-08-02	4,226.31	3,325.81	34.52	51235	Upward Expansion	80	70
2024-07-26	4,012.40	3,286.67	27.26	64304	Upward Expansion	68	67
2024-07-19	4,059.39	3,261.69	27.38	58131	Upward Expansion	73	82
2024-07-12	4,066.00	3,236.01	25.23	30111	Upward Expansion	78	91
2024-07-05	4,081.40	3,213.92	32.64	59348	Upward Expansion	86	94
2024-06-28	3,887.56	3,190.96	26.80	58648	Upward Expansion	81	93
2024-06-21	3,795.72	3,170.93	23.48	101030	Rotation Up	84	94
2024-06-14	3,912.46	3,152.49	29.16	98734	Rotation Up	70	88
2024-06-07	3,612.67	3,130.98	18.24	66154	Rotation Up	60	79
2024-05-31	3,244.26	3,120.07	2.32	32137	Rotation Up	38	48
2024-05-24	3,168.97	3,114.35	-0.51	26675	Downward Expansion	28	37
2024-05-17	3,152.85	3,109.97	-4.74	39502	Downward Expansion	-1	21
2024-05-10	3,069.92	3,110.04	-7.54	123529	Downward Expansion	-25	21
2024-05-03	3,113.60	3,115.31	-5.33	56444	Downward Expansion	-28	19
2024-04-26	2,912.27	3,119.08	-12.57	64436	Downward Expansion	-61	48
2024-04-19	2,824.79	3,121.62	-12.35	93406	Downward Expansion	-71	58
2024-04-12	2,936.42	3,127.52	-10.14	116312	Downward Expansion	-64	60
2024-04-05	2,792.32	3,128.98	-16.87	95107	Downward Expansion	-79	86
2024-03-29	2,872.88	3,140.37	-13.62	10509	Downward Expansion	-70	81
2024-03-22	2,886.28	3,152.40	-12.20	56691	Downward Expansion	-73	81
2024-03-15	2,869.66	3,156.09	-12.25	45658	Rotation Down	-80	81
2024-03-08	2,878.02	3,159.47	-10.09	338339	Rotation Down	-57	67
2024-03-01	3,057.24	3,164.35	-5.50	98114	Balance	-28	42
2024-02-23	3,122.42	3,166.24	-5.24	27648	Balance	-17	22
2024-02-16	3,099.20	3,170.82	-6.60	42028	Balance	-3	6
2024-02-09	3,223.08	3,176.19	-3.12	28219	Balance	29	17
2024-02-02	3,193.32	3,174.74	-5.41	42047	Balance	16	8
2024-01-26	3,292.42	3,177.38	-0.11	52262	Upward Expansion	35	24
2024-01-19	3,275.60	3,178.25	2.16	84273	Upward Expansion	30	25
2024-01-12	3,134.76	3,175.90	-2.14	58329	Upward Expansion	13	22
2024-01-05	3,052.16	3,176.60	-5.43	60168	Upward Expansion	12	11
2023-12-29	3,263.01	3,179.14	-0.78	30896	Upward Expansion	59	54
2023-12-22	3,289.04	3,176.14	0.30	39699	Upward Expansion	63	68
2023-12-15	3,403.46	3,169.49	4.36	28159	Upward Expansion	76	77
2023-12-08	3,392.41	3,159.63	9.47	48285	Upward Expansion	76	74
2023-12-01	3,286.57	3,147.68	7.26	31317	Upward Expansion	61	63
2023-11-24	3,242.52	3,140.90	7.94	9985	Balance	44	45
2023-11-17	3,267.28	3,134.14	9.50	342184	Balance	30	27
2023-11-10	3,285.33	3,124.11	13.36	184507	Balance	32	19
2023-11-03	3,072.81	3,113.92	6.30	27281	Balance	-6	6
2023-10-27	3,037.46	3,111.10	10.28	26602	Balance	-7	13
2023-10-20	3,154.88	3,108.53	16.17	44673	Deceleration	23	19
2023-10-13	3,227.98	3,101.72	16.32	300849	Deceleration	33	17
2023-10-06	3,226.92	3,092.04	15.78	848745	Deceleration	9	11

Price vs TrendAbove+16.9%

Trend directionRising+6.3%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+40.9%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+19.1%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+22.8%

Relative strength directionImproving+20.6%

Price momentumPositive+33.9%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.26×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

84 / ±100

+46.4 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

80 /100

+54.7 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

AAPL Directional State ↗ AAPL Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance17

Rotation Up80

Upward Expansion92

Deceleration43

Rotation Down10

Downward Expansion17

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 10%Rotation Up 8%Upward Expansion 41%Deceleration 15%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 21%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-09-18	2026-09-25	New	+4.4%
Deceleration	2026-08-21	2026-09-11	New	+7.7%
Upward Expansion	2026-07-17	2026-08-14	Developing	-11.0%
Deceleration	2026-07-03	2026-07-10	New	+2.4%
Upward Expansion	2026-06-05	2026-06-26	New	-7.8%
Rotation Up	2026-05-15	2026-05-29	New	+3.9%
Balance	2026-04-24	2026-05-08	New	+7.1%
Downward Expansion	2026-03-20	2026-04-17	Developing	+5.4%
Deceleration	2026-02-27	2026-03-13	New	-1.4%
Rotation Down	2026-01-30	2026-02-20	New	-0.5%
Deceleration	2026-01-02	2026-01-23	New	-10.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-03	2025-12-26	Established	+3.2%
Rotation Up	2025-08-29	2025-09-26	Developing	+8.3%
Balance	2025-08-15	2025-08-22	New	-2.4%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing18

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution54

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^MXX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 89/100
Current Relative Strength: 22.79
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +33.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +36.5%
Technology regime cohort: 55th percentile40 in cohort

Test AAPL trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume2.95×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.26×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution4 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore AAPL Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity MXN 5,765.65rising

Slow Activity MXN 5,374.35rising

Trend Reference MXN 5,158.18+16.9% close margin

Current Fair Value MXN 4,281.68+40.9% close margin

Structural low MXN 4,389.77shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +4.5%

Annualized volatility +26.5%

From structural high -0.1%

From structural low +41.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^MXX	Regime survived	Read
Near term	29	+1.6%-11.8% to +11.5%	+62.1%	+62.1%	+1.9%	+72.4%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	10	+2.5%-14.0% to +16.3%	+70.0%	+70.0%	+3.2%	+30.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	7	-1.3%-26.8% to +33.2%	+28.6%	+28.6%	-3.7%	+28.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	-2.5%-4.2% to +4.4%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-9.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

AAPL Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map