Weekly structural research · MEX · Consumer Cyclical

CPNG Stage Analysis

Coupang, Inc.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close MXN 247.16Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^MXX

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction -77−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 89/100directional strength

Maturity 56/100lifecycle context

Confidence 86/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance -66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -38.8%MXN 403.58 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	247.16	301.67	-31.77	4615	Downward Expansion	-77	89
2026-09-18	250.00	304.50	-30.63	3263	Downward Expansion	-80	86
2026-09-11	258.00	306.76	-30.47	4542	Downward Expansion	-76	74
2026-09-04	257.99	307.93	-32.75	3163	Downward Expansion	-81	72
2026-08-28	281.50	309.43	-28.46	1538	Downward Expansion	-61	68
2026-08-21	279.00	311.81	-30.42	319	Downward Expansion	-63	73
2026-08-14	273.50	314.02	-31.40	64	Downward Expansion	-68	78
2026-08-07	278.01	317.39	-33.91	555	Downward Expansion	-66	72
2026-07-31	283.35	321.82	-33.62	381	Downward Expansion	-59	40
2026-07-24	271.01	326.31	-37.14	10678	Downward Expansion	-66	31
2026-07-17	292.00	331.95	-33.75	1016	Downward Expansion	-39	24
2026-07-10	330.00	336.05	-26.28	620	Downward Expansion	-13	21
2026-07-03	330.00	340.77	-27.92	50	Downward Expansion	-25	20
2026-06-26	302.90	346.19	-34.87	174	Downward Expansion	-48	38
2026-06-19	313.50	353.33	-34.03	0	Downward Expansion	-61	50
2026-06-12	289.99	359.28	-40.08	721	Downward Expansion	-66	73
2026-06-05	266.00	366.85	-44.29	2798	Downward Expansion	-80	91
2026-05-29	287.39	376.02	-42.77	5229	Downward Expansion	-69	86
2026-05-22	281.00	386.21	-44.60	41711	Downward Expansion	-80	88
2026-05-15	284.22	395.92	-44.42	10084	Downward Expansion	-82	69
2026-05-08	295.00	405.63	-44.59	11914	Downward Expansion	-65	38
2026-05-01	351.00	415.17	-32.71	943	Balance	-20	21
2026-04-24	357.00	423.64	-33.34	2172	Downward Expansion	-23	20
2026-04-17	375.93	431.80	-30.82	3835	Downward Expansion	-38	28
2026-04-10	348.00	439.87	-36.57	2347	Downward Expansion	-45	41
2026-04-03	338.00	448.27	-38.61	8324	Downward Expansion	-48	49
2026-03-27	326.00	455.01	-38.77	1412	Downward Expansion	-50	53
2026-03-20	338.60	461.86	-34.52	1928	Downward Expansion	-49	53
2026-03-13	333.00	468.25	-37.55	706	Downward Expansion	-61	60
2026-03-06	331.00	474.79	-39.93	1025	Downward Expansion	-65	65
2026-02-27	332.00	481.15	-43.77	611	Downward Expansion	-67	67
2026-02-20	318.00	489.75	-46.72	6356	Downward Expansion	-68	79
2026-02-13	293.00	498.82	-51.44	6198	Downward Expansion	-87	93
2026-02-06	303.00	508.74	-49.86	15973	Downward Expansion	-92	94
2026-01-30	353.00	517.30	-39.47	14436	Downward Expansion	-80	87
2026-01-23	345.20	524.20	-41.86	1226	Downward Expansion	-91	93
2026-01-16	374.50	531.36	-36.48	23969	Downward Expansion	-89	92
2026-01-09	411.00	537.55	-29.70	5685	Downward Expansion	-80	91
2026-01-02	418.00	541.71	-26.83	843	Downward Expansion	-83	93
2025-12-26	440.15	545.94	-25.39	2694	Downward Expansion	-79	92
2025-12-19	415.00	549.43	-28.42	12384	Downward Expansion	-96	98
2025-12-12	471.79	553.77	-20.26	949	Downward Expansion	-87	94
2025-12-05	492.57	556.08	-15.50	6491	Rotation Down	-76	85
2025-11-28	517.00	553.99	-12.07	930	Rotation Down	-38	67
2025-11-21	492.00	551.09	-14.43	2525	Deceleration	-48	64
2025-11-14	517.00	549.02	-11.06	1922	Deceleration	-19	28
2025-11-07	541.36	546.12	-8.68	2230	Deceleration	8	15
2025-10-31	593.07	542.41	0.82	903	Deceleration	47	26
2025-10-24	572.30	538.53	-0.18	7851	Upward Expansion	44	31
2025-10-17	575.36	535.35	-0.65	1223	Upward Expansion	60	49
2025-10-10	581.30	530.83	2.30	2695	Upward Expansion	64	78
2025-10-03	605.00	526.12	4.12	610	Upward Expansion	70	88
2025-09-26	602.00	522.26	3.19	2660	Upward Expansion	74	85
2025-09-19	618.00	518.12	7.96	1072	Deceleration	90	71
2025-09-12	600.00	513.56	4.15	270	Deceleration	77	45
2025-09-05	540.00	509.59	-3.98	2248	Deceleration	11	31
2025-08-29	531.50	507.62	-2.60	2347	Deceleration	23	44
2025-08-22	530.50	505.94	-3.50	827	Deceleration	34	46
2025-08-15	529.00	503.49	-1.93	1919	Upward Expansion	49	46
2025-08-08	522.00	501.08	-2.41	500	Upward Expansion	63	62
2025-08-01	590.00	498.91	12.98	0	Upward Expansion	80	91
2025-07-25	590.00	496.74	12.86	19	Upward Expansion	88	94
2025-07-18	590.50	494.58	15.79	502	Upward Expansion	94	97
2025-07-11	560.00	492.39	9.96	0	Upward Expansion	72	90
2025-07-04	560.00	491.23	8.01	0	Upward Expansion	75	90
2025-06-27	560.00	490.06	9.65	0	Upward Expansion	81	93
2025-06-20	560.00	488.89	12.46	18	Rotation Up	84	94
2025-06-13	535.80	486.59	6.04	699	Rotation Up	40	79
2025-06-06	545.00	485.10	7.19	0	Rotation Up	49	66
2025-05-30	545.00	483.30	8.13	0	Rotation Up	49	62
2025-05-23	545.00	481.55	7.68	32	Rotation Up	48	51
2025-05-16	541.00	479.80	8.20	1015	Rotation Up	-2	10
2025-05-09	430.00	478.40	-11.27	0	Downward Expansion	-67	87
2025-05-02	430.00	480.17	-9.82	0	Downward Expansion	-73	90
2025-04-25	430.00	481.93	-10.99	0	Downward Expansion	-81	90
2025-04-18	430.00	483.70	-4.49	0	Downward Expansion	-86	71
2025-04-11	430.00	484.13	-1.31	20	Downward Expansion	-87	81
2025-04-04	476.70	484.55	10.20	0	Downward Expansion	-57	49
2025-03-28	476.70	483.49	7.61	110	Rotation Down	-58	50
2025-03-21	440.00	482.44	1.10	0	Rotation Down	-58	77
2025-03-14	440.00	480.60	2.15	1000	Rotation Down	-56	45
2025-03-07	489.00	478.77	13.54	1300	Deceleration	21	21
2025-02-28	478.00	475.30	13.03	1000	Deceleration	13	17
2025-02-21	481.00	472.20	11.66	0	Deceleration	11	17
2025-02-14	481.00	469.00	12.10	0	Deceleration	-7	36
2025-02-07	481.00	465.80	15.97	0	Deceleration	-10	48
2025-01-31	481.00	462.60	21.05	4400	Rotation Down	-10	48
2025-01-24	456.88	459.40	16.18	8	Rotation Down	-34	57
2025-01-17	456.88	456.81	20.84	0	Rotation Down	-9	41
2025-01-10	456.88	454.21	23.08	7	Rotation Down	18	36
2025-01-03	525.00	451.61	44.90	0	Upward Expansion	67	89
2024-12-27	525.00	446.74	46.17	0	Upward Expansion	67	89
2024-12-20	525.00	441.87	47.62	0	Upward Expansion	74	91
2024-12-13	525.00	437.54	44.07	0	Upward Expansion	83	94
2024-12-06	525.00	432.64	47.01	0	Upward Expansion	91	95
2024-11-29	525.00	427.20	53.78	200	Upward Expansion	95	78
2024-11-22	491.00	421.77	44.23	0	Upward Expansion	65	66
2024-11-15	491.00	417.47	45.96	0	Upward Expansion	67	68
2024-11-08	491.00	413.17	43.92	965	Upward Expansion	69	69
2024-11-01	492.50	407.33	49.69	0	Upward Expansion	71	70
2024-10-25	492.50	401.21	47.82	10	Upward Expansion	75	71
2024-10-18	499.00	395.08	47.54	250	Upward Expansion	95	78
2024-10-11	483.00	388.74	45.93	0	Upward Expansion	91	77
2024-10-04	483.00	382.94	46.74	0	Upward Expansion	98	80
2024-09-27	483.00	377.20	47.70	45	Upward Expansion	98	99
2024-09-20	442.75	371.67	38.12	0	Upward Expansion	81	73
2024-09-13	442.75	365.79	39.56	200	Upward Expansion	94	98
2024-09-06	445.00	359.92	43.83	0	Upward Expansion	95	98
2024-08-30	445.00	353.19	40.10	100	Upward Expansion	95	78
2024-08-23	385.00	346.28	20.89	0	Upward Expansion	65	88
2024-08-16	385.00	341.75	20.10	0	Upward Expansion	66	68
2024-08-09	385.00	337.55	22.94	71	Upward Expansion	67	87
2024-08-02	385.00	333.71	25.43	0	Upward Expansion	67	88
2024-07-26	385.00	329.88	24.72	0	Upward Expansion	70	89
2024-07-19	385.00	326.05	23.39	0	Upward Expansion	73	90
2024-07-12	385.00	322.21	21.08	0	Upward Expansion	71	68
2024-07-05	385.00	318.38	27.67	327	Upward Expansion	73	68
2024-06-28	378.93	314.55	26.07	0	Upward Expansion	63	66
2024-06-21	378.93	311.25	25.84	0	Upward Expansion	64	71
2024-06-14	378.93	307.95	27.79	0	Upward Expansion	66	84
2024-06-07	378.93	304.65	26.65	0	Upward Expansion	67	88
2024-05-31	378.93	301.02	22.21	2000	Upward Expansion	69	89
2024-05-24	395.00	299.19	27.30	117	Upward Expansion	95	98
2024-05-17	378.00	296.82	17.79	327	Upward Expansion	90	96
2024-05-10	362.00	294.22	12.87	0	Upward Expansion	75	91
2024-05-03	362.00	292.16	14.27	0	Upward Expansion	85	95
2024-04-26	362.00	290.09	13.03	0	Upward Expansion	93	96
2024-04-19	362.00	288.79	17.14	270	Rotation Up	96	77
2024-04-12	315.73	287.49	1.05	16556	Rotation Up	49	60
2024-04-05	308.81	287.77	-3.91	0	Rotation Up	40	72
2024-03-29	308.81	287.82	-2.97	0	Rotation Up	31	76
2024-03-22	308.81	287.88	-1.91	0	Rotation Up	35	57
2024-03-15	308.81	287.94	-1.50	16044	Rotation Up	43	60
2024-03-08	311.00	287.99	1.24	14464	Rotation Up	51	63
2024-03-01	317.00	287.98	1.88	855	Rotation Up	9	32
2024-02-23	266.48	287.76	-16.15	0	Downward Expansion	-67	67
2024-02-16	266.48	289.23	-17.28	613	Downward Expansion	-67	88
2024-02-09	243.00	290.69	-25.19	23	Downward Expansion	-85	95
2024-02-02	237.80	292.94	-28.41	9377	Downward Expansion	-93	95
2024-01-26	249.00	295.37	-23.74	58	Downward Expansion	-92	95
2024-01-19	259.00	297.42	-19.04	197	Downward Expansion	-84	71
2024-01-12	270.00	299.13	-16.31	0	Downward Expansion	-66	69
2024-01-05	270.00	300.48	-17.60	0	Downward Expansion	-68	84
2023-12-29	270.00	301.83	-19.89	0	Downward Expansion	-71	79
2023-12-22	270.00	303.18	-20.51	0	Downward Expansion	-75	88
2023-12-15	270.00	304.53	-20.88	0	Downward Expansion	-80	92
2023-12-08	270.00	305.88	-17.58	19	Downward Expansion	-80	92
2023-12-01	280.00	307.23	-14.35	59	Downward Expansion	-68	89
2023-11-24	280.00	308.83	-13.36	0	Downward Expansion	-79	89
2023-11-17	280.00	310.43	-13.51	60	Downward Expansion	-84	61
2023-11-10	270.00	312.03	-14.80	3451	Downward Expansion	-85	53
2023-11-03	324.00	313.97	1.60	135	Rotation Up	41	19
2023-10-27	324.00	314.10	6.19	35	Rotation Up	-13	32
2023-10-20	300.00	314.23	-0.28	0	Rotation Down	-87	75
2023-10-13	300.00	315.17	-2.87	0	Rotation Down	-73	54
2023-10-06	300.00	316.10	-4.37	20	Rotation Down	-28	53

Price vs TrendBelow-18.1%

Trend directionFalling-9.1%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-38.8%

Fair Value directionMoving away-13.3%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-31.8%

Relative strength directionImproving+3.1%

Price momentumNegative-24.2%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.29×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-77 / ±100

-15.5 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

89 /100

+21.4 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

CPNG Directional State ↗ CPNG Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance15

Rotation Up9

Upward Expansion22

Deceleration37

Rotation Down78

Downward Expansion95

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 1%Rotation Up 10%Upward Expansion 32%Deceleration 9%Rotation Down 8%Downward Expansion 40%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-05-08	2026-09-25	Established	-16.2%
Balance	2026-05-01	2026-05-01	New	+0.0%
Downward Expansion	2025-12-12	2026-04-24	Established	-24.3%
Rotation Down	2025-11-28	2025-12-05	New	-4.7%
Deceleration	2025-10-31	2025-11-21	New	-17.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-26	2025-10-24	Developing	-4.9%
Deceleration	2025-08-22	2025-09-19	Developing	+16.5%
Upward Expansion	2025-06-27	2025-08-15	Developing	-5.5%
Rotation Up	2025-05-16	2025-06-20	Developing	+3.5%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-04	2025-05-09	Developing	-9.8%
Rotation Down	2025-03-14	2025-03-28	New	+8.3%
Deceleration	2025-02-07	2025-03-07	Developing	+1.7%
Rotation Down	2025-01-10	2025-01-31	New	+5.3%
Upward Expansion	2024-04-26	2025-01-03	Extended	+45.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing60

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution10

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^MXX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 99/100
Current Relative Strength: -31.77
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -24.2%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -21.6%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 83th percentile48 in cohort

Test CPNG trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.01×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.29×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore CPNG Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity MXN 253.82falling

Slow Activity MXN 286.55falling

Trend Reference MXN 301.67-18.1% close margin

Current Fair Value MXN 403.58-38.8% close margin

Structural low MXN 245.00shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +5.9%

Annualized volatility +44.9%

From structural high -59.2%

From structural low +0.9%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^MXX	Regime survived	Read
Near term	19	+0.0%-26.3% to +33.3%	+36.8%	+42.1%	-1.4%	+78.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	-10.0%-29.4% to +49.0%	+42.9%	+57.1%	-5.1%	+57.1%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	+6.9%-38.5% to +40.3%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-6.1%	+50.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	-3.5%-29.1% to +22.0%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-19.9%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

CPNG Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map